Young Guns
4* Orioles
C Jordan
300 Detroit Run Line
100 Boston
100 Twins
DAVE MALINSKY
Arizona Diamondbacks at Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins 4*
Is it as easy as simply playing the better team in the role of the home underdog? It is, particularly when the marketplace does not appreciate how wide the gap is, and also how far off of his “A” game that Brandon Webb is.
After that “strong” start, Arizona has now fallen all the way back to .500. We put quotations around strong because the reality turned out to be more a case of the weaknesses of the N.L. West than the strengths of the Diamondbacks. It continues to show as they get exposed on the road, with an abysmal 8-22 record as a non-division traveler. And in the 23 games they have played either home or away against teams that currently sport winning records, it is even worse at a hideous 5-18. Webb may bring enough past reputation to be given the mantle of favorite here, but not enough to the mound to turn that form around.
The Arizona right-hander is on an 0-2/8.22 slide over his last three starts, with the Diamondbacks also losing the no-decision. He will correct over time, but this is not the ideal place for it. Like most sinker-ball pitchers, the more he works the more effective he is, but like the others he also has trouble getting the ball down when his arm is too fresh. That has been the culprit in this slide. He threw only 58 pitches against the Mets on June 11th, which took him out of rhythm, and it got exacerbated when he had five days in between starts before taking on Oakland. He had nothing that day in his worst performance in several years, and because of that his stint was just 84 pitches. It was another loss at Minnesota on Sunday, when his pitch count again stayed below 100, and now once again he has to work after having five days off. It is easy to project his struggles to continue here, particularly against the quality of left-handers in the Florida lineup (they continue to hit him significantly harder than right-handers)
Meanwhile there is also value to be found from Andrew Miller, whose 5-6/5.03 in the pitching forms obviously scares potential investors away. But we have written about the Miller story before - he indeed got off to a terrible start, which can happen for a guy with excellent stuff, but little seasoning. He was thrown to the wolves because of Marlin injuries, instead of being able to develop in the Minor’s. But over his last 10 starts it has been a solid 3.21, with nearly as many strikeouts (45) as hits allows (48). His confidence will be at a high level here, having held the Phillies to one run over seven innings of his last home start (seven strikeouts, four hits), and also having shut these Diamondbacks out over seven innings of an easy win on May 22nd (nine strikeouts, five hits). And with Ricky Nolasco working deep into the night on Friday, all key Florida bullpen arms are rested and ready.
New York Yankees at New York Mets
PICK: Under 4*
With the bulk of the starters for each team playing both end of Friday’s draining double-header, which included some rushed travel between games, the last thing that they need is to have to come back for this afternoon affair, particularly against the likes of Andy Pettitte and Johan Santana. It means some general fatigue all the way around, particularly for a Yankee team that did not get the usual rest on Thursday night, after getting a late flight out of Pittsburgh. So with the key arms in the bullpens also fresh off of the Friday blowouts, and the shadows in Shea that will be cause by this starting time, we have excellent value here.
Pettitte has show that he is a “Pro’s Pro” in recent outings. Four starts back he had one of the more embarrassing outings of his career against Kansas City, culminated by a Jose Guillen grand slam in the seventh inning, but he has rebounded brilliantly since then - it has been a 3-0/0.43 run over 21 innings in which he has more strikeouts than base-runners allowed, and we can confidently call for him to continue that run against a Met lineup that has been able to beat up on bad pitchers, but has truly struggled vs. quality with Moises Alou and Ryan Church. Meanwhile Santana has worked to a 4-0/2.98 lifetime tune against the Yankees, including an earlier win in the Bronx this season, and can continue their difficulties against left-handers this season, a logical issue for them because of the make up of their lineup.
Rockies (RL) at Tigers (RL)
PICK: Tigers (RL) 6*
It should not come as any surprise at all that we are involved here. We have been backing the Tigers with regularity on their turnaround (now 15-4 and counting, and with our own run being 6-0 behind them over the last 13 games), particularly when Justin Verlander is involved. A slumping Colorado team does not get in the way tonight.
Verlander still only shows a 4-9/4.49 as his season bottom line, but his stuff is back. In his last start he had a season high of 10 strikeouts at San Diego, and the last time he worked from this mound he pitched a complete-game beauty against the White Sox in which he only allowed one run on four hits, without walking a batter. His last four starts from this mound have produced a 1.74 ERA, and we only expect him to get better as his confidence returns. Scott Podsdednik is the only Colorado player with more than three career at-bats against him, and seven of the projected starters have never faced him at all, which makes the Rockies hard-pressed to break out of an offensive funk that has seen them score only 10 runs in the first four games of this road trip. When the likes of Luke Hochevar and Eddie Bonine reach their career-high of innings pitched (both went a solid eight) in back-to-back games, a guy like Verlander is the last thing that you want to see. And with Jim Leyland now having a full arsenal of bullpen weapons, the latter innings are in good hands as well.
That leaves it up to the Detroit offense to get after Jeff Francis, and they should relish this opportunity. As logic would dictate they have been mashing left-handers this season, and in the current cycle they have been mashing everyone - how about 45 hits over the last three games? This offense is going to wear opposing pitching staffs out over the warmer summer evenings, and Francis brings a most fragile psyche to the matchup. He has worked to an ugly 1-3/6.07 on the road this season, which does not include that early outing at St. Louis in which he was hammered, but rain washed away the inept showing from the “official” statistics. In those road miseries he has been tagged for nine home runs in 46 innings, and in truth it has been even worse than that - consider that he threw seven shutout innings against weak division opponents Los Angeles and San Diego, and has been pelted in all other outings, with the punchless Royals tagging him for seven runs over 4.1 innings of his last start, including a pair of home runs.
The Rockies are 5-15 in non-division road games this season, with 12 of those losses coming by multiple runs. The fact that we can get an underdog payback in a game that we expect to break wide open has us stepping the investment up here, to maximize the great value that the situation brings.
BRYAN LEONARD
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The Rockies are averaging 3.26 runs per game on the road vs right-handed starters. They are just 12-29 on the road this season. Tonight they send struggling Jeff Francis to the hill with his 6.07 road ERA. Colorado has won just twice in his eight road starts this season. In his last four starts Francis has a terrible 9 to 10 strikeout to walk ratio. He very likely will be lit up by this veteran Tiger offense if he can't better his control problems.
He will be facing a Tigers team who is starting to make a move up the standings. Detroit has won seven of their last nine games and the bats look to breakout tonight against Francis. Detroit is averaging 6.38 runs per game here vs left-handed starters. The Tigers have won nine of ten here at Comerica Park and this one could get ugly real early for the Rockies. PLAY DETROIT
Greg Shaker
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Play Astros +134 2 Units
Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays
Play Bluejays +115 2 Units
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
Athletics -1.5 (Heavy Hitter) +160 3 Units
Play this game at 1/2 Runline and 1/2 Moneyline of -139 to assure a Push on a 1 Run Win.
Ethan Law
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON PHILADEPHIA -$130
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON DETROIT (-1.5) +$120
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON HOUSTON +$130
Jeff Bonds
TOR (+113) vs ATL
CWS -1.5 (+155) vs CHC
WAS (-110) vs BAL
Andre Gomes WNBA
Indiana Fever @ Houston Comets
For today's game I go with a total and I expect not to be unlucky again, as the last two times I took a total plays, I lost both due to the games going to overtime. One of these games was exactly the last game of Indiana. If you remember I took under 143 and the game with just 6 seconds to go was 72-69, but the Liberty scored a 3pts shot and sent the game to overtime. Well, that game went to a triple overtime and occasionally, New York ended up winning by 102-96. This circumstance creates a very tough spot for Indiana tonight, not only due to this triple overtime game (four players of Indiana played more than 40 minutes), but also the schedule itself. Indiana played @LA at 22, returned home to face Sacramento at 24, then traveled to NY at 26 and they crossed the country again to play at Houston today (28). The team will come to this match tired and certainly they won't be at their best level offensively. They will have just their strong defense as a weapon for this game, which has been helping the Fever a lot to win some ballgames.
Houston in the other hand is right now one of hottest teams in the league, winning 5 of their last 6 games and they just come from beating San Antonio twice in an home-home series. Their last win by 77-71 was obtained in a fashioning and weird way, as their leading scorer Tina Thompson didn't play due to an injury but the team not only fared very well without her, but they also managed to do their best offensive performance of the season by shooting 55.6% FG! Sancho Lyttle who replaced Thompson was amazing with 10-12 FG, 6reb, 3ast, 3stl and 1 block! Of course this kind of performance doesn't happen many times and in fact I expect an offensive letdown of Houston tonight. In the last game Houston's offense was great, but the truth is that the key for this streak has been the defense. In the last 5 games, all Comets' opponents have shot below 40% FG. I expect both defenses to step up and make this game a low scoring game, reaching low 130's. Take the under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) Under 142
Andre Gomes MLB free plays
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Under 9
Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds Cleveland -1
Root
Chairman - Angels
Millionaire- Padres
Money Maker - Cardinals
Perfect Play- White Sox
BRANDON LOVELL
Rockies +1.5
Teddy June 5* Game of the Day
Nationals
HOOPSEDGE
Indiana Fever -1
Mr Ernie
5* STL +105
Michael Cannon
15 Dime
RANGERS (With Padilla as listed pitcher)
Take the Rangers for the home win over the Phillies.
Tough task here, with Cole Hamels getting the start for Philly, but the Rangers are sending a pretty good pitcher to the mound in Vicente Padilla.
Padilla has won his last three starts and eight of his last nine decisions.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia has lost eight of its last nine games. Hamels is having a fine year, but is just 2-5 with a 5.70 ERA in seven lifetime interleague starts.
With Texas enjoying homefield advantage they are indeed an attractive home dog.
Take the Rangers for the win.
10 Dime
YANKEES (With Pettitte as listed pitcher)
Take the Yankees as the small road dog for the win over the Mets.
Andy Pettitte will get the start for the Yankees and he’s been shutting everyone down lately. The left-hander has won his last three starts, allowing just one run in 21 innings.
Pettitte might have to keep the zeros going up to get the win here with Johan Santana starting for the Mets, but anytime you can get Pettitte and that Yankees lineup as a small dog it’s worth it.
Santana is 0-3 in his last four starts, despite a sparkling 2.08 ERA.
Take the Yankees as they grab the road win.
VEGAS RUNNER
UNDER 7.5 NYY/NYM (1*)
This Bet was slated to be a 2* Total which would have been added into today's "Heavy Hitters" Package, but since the majority of shops have moved the total to 7.5, from the opener "8"...I elected to down-grade it to a 1* Subscribers Bet...Now I still see the Stations as well as a few more Strip shops using 8 with the Under Favored, as well as a few locals I have access to...but the concensus seems to be at 7.5 which is what I will use to post this bet, but Please make sure to check all your outs and go ahead and lay the extra vig if you can get UNDER 8 like we were able to do