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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
The struggling Yankees have dropped five of their last 6 games and are 1-5 in its last 6 versus the Red Sox. Go with Boston to beat -up on the NY Yankees this afternoon for their third straight win in the Bronx. New York's Mike Mussina (10-6, 3.87), is 0-3 with a 9.30 ERA In his last four starts against Boston and the Yankees have lost Mussina’s last 5 starts versus the Red Sox. Boston is 5-2 in Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.75 ERA), last 7 starts.
Boston Red Sox - +120
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
Under - 7
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers -130
DAVE MALINSKY
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies 4*
We really like what we see from Jamie Moyer right now. But his work has been rather subtle, and that helps to explain why we get the superior team here at less than the home field advantage.
Three weeks ago we backed Moyer in consecutive road starts, and got rewarded with 4* wins at Atlanta (at an underdog return) and Florida. The matchups and lines have forced us to back off in his last three outings, and they could not have played out better for us - he took an 0-3 collar in that span, falling at home to the Red Sox and on the road at Oakland and Texas, despite continuing his form. If anything, he even ramped his game up a bit - in those three defeats he struck out 19 batters, while only allowing 16 hits. That is most unusual for a guy that pitches to contact, but it shows how good his stuff has been. While getting tagged with three straight L’s he only allowed eight runs across the three starts combined, but he was only given three runs of offense support. That sets us up with tonight’s outstanding value, as Moyer brings the savvy to keep the Mets in check for a couple of passes through the lineup, and then turns things over to a bullpen that rivals any in the Major’s at this time. And with the Phillie lineup coming back to life, Moyer finally gets that run support again that has been recently lacking.
The Mets continue to get priced more on reputation than performance. They have a losing record overall, which indeed is the sum of the current parts, and are 20-26 on the road. They are 9-8 in John Maine’s starts despite the fact that 15 of those 17 games came against teams that currently sport losing records, and Maine’s inability to eat innings continues to be a growing concern - a guy that they were counting on to step up in that regard is averaging less than six frames per start, and it has been nearly two full months (May 7th at Los Angeles), since he was able to finish the 7th inning. That will fully bring the erratic New York bullpen into play, and against this lineup, in front of another sell-out crowd at Citizens Bank Park, it is a recipe for disaster.
We believe that Moyer can out-pitch Maine on current form and the matchups against the particular hitters, but all we need is a standoff between the starters and the end game belongs to the host. That is a bargain at this low line.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Yankees -128
I like the Yanks to bounce back in game 3 behind Mussina. The Yankees are 5-0 in Mussina's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series, 16-6 in Mussina's last 22 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 9-4 in Mussina's last 13 starts. The Red Sox are ust 4-10 in their last 14 games as a road underdog, 5-13 in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning record, and 2-5 in their last 7 road games. The third time will be the charm for the Yankees.
LT Profits
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves Under 9.0
Jo-Jo Reyes has been a very pleasant surprise for the Atlanta Braves, but has received no run support, and we look for an instant replay and another low scoring affair tonight when the Braves host the Houston Astros.
Reyes has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts including allowing just one earned run on two of those occasions. He has also allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his 12 starts this season, and yet he is just 3-6, as the Braves have given him just 3.67 runs per game of support.
Now Astros starter Chris Sampson was demoted to the bullpen after posting a 6.04 ERA in 10 starts this season, but he has been very effective with an excellent 2.16 ERA in 13 relief appearances, so he seems poised to regain his good form as a starter. He did have some nice moments in this role each of the last two seasons, and he is facing an Atlanta lineup that has an abysmal .225 team batting average the last 10 games.
Thus, look for a fifth straight Under in the head-to-head series between these teams.
Pick: Astros, Braves Under 9
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels Under 6.5
It is not too often that we would recommend an Under at 6.5, but we are making an exception in this marquee matchup between Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays and John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels. In fact, because of the positive odds attached to this total, we find it preferable to Under 7 -130, which is also available.
Lackey has made only nine starts this season after beginning the year on the Disabled List, but to say he has been in peak form over those nine starts would be a severe understatement. He is 6-1 with an incredible 1.44 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 68.2 innings for the year, and he has allowed two runs or less in eight of his nine starts and three runs in the other. Not surprisingly, the Under is 8-0-1 in all Lackey starts.
Now Halladay may have slipped just a smidgeon from his Cy Young Award days, but 99 percent of the pitchers in the league would be ecstatic to have a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP after 17 starts. He is certainly in great form after hurling a Complete Game four-hit shutout at Seattle on Monday. Remarkably, in this age of relief specialists, that marked his sixth Complete Game of the season, easily the most in the majors.
Finally, all Lackey starts this season are averaging a combined 4.89 runs while all Halladay starts are averaging 6.71 runs, and we feel that these clubs will have a tough time topping five runs given the current form of the starters.
Pick: Blue Jays, Angels Under 6.5
Tony Karpinski
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays protect their home field. That is so important for a young team looking to get in to the playoffs. Overall they are 34-13 at home. 34-13!!! Twenty games over .500 is no easy accomplishment.
The Rays are a balanced team with speed and hitting. That is one of the reasons they haven’t had a long losing streak and why they are a first place team. They are fourth in the league in pitching and they are eighth in the league in runs scored. One last stat, they have 96 stolen bases. Remember that speed doesn’t slump.
Play Tampa Bay
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Selection
TRIPLEHEADER TODAY!!!
Game #1
Cleveland Indians(Laffey) vs Minnesota Twins(Slowey)
Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runline +170
Game # 2
Los Angelas Dodgers(Parks) vs San Francisco Giants(Zito)
Los Angelas Dodgers -1.5 Runline +140
Game # 3
Detroit Tigers(Gallaraga) vs Seattle Mariners (Dickey)
Detroit Tigers -1.5 Runlne +125
Steve Zukiel Guaranteed Selections
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
Rating: Guaranteed 60 Unit MLB Line Value Game Of The Month
In this contest, my money is on the Tampa Bay Rays
This report was done before last night's games were finalized.
How ridiculous is this line? The Tampa Bay Rays own the BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL, they are playing at home, and are playing a struggling Kansas City team, yet they are only -130 favorites. Now imagine if this was the Boston Red Sox at home, what do you think the line would be? Exactly. The Rays also have a solid pitcher in Andy Sonnanstine, who is gunning for his 10th win of the year. He has pitched very well as of late, going 2-0 in his last three starts, sporting a 3.18 EREA, and in his last six starts, he is 3-0 and the team has won all six. Kansas City has struggled against AL East opponents all year long and I don't forsee much changing this time around. Take the Rays and watch them continue their amazing play.
STEVE ZUKIEL TAKES THE TAMPA BAY RAYS OVER THE KANSAS CITY ROYALS AS MY GUARANTEED 60 UNIT MLB LINE VALUE GAME OF THE MONTH
Dwayne Bryant 9-3 L12
Cleveland Indians (Laffey) at Minnesota Twins (Slowey)
The Pick: Minnesota Twins -130
Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. Cleveland has lost six straight and nine of their last 11. Minnesota has won three straight and 14 of their last 16. Since starting pitchers rarely go past the seventh inning any more, it has become increasingly important to take each team's bullpen into consideration. Cleveland's pen owns a 5.57 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road, where they've converted only 58% of their save chances. Minnesota's pen owns an impressive 2.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home, where they've converted 16 of 18 save chances.
Aaron Laffey gets the call for the Indians. Laffey has decent overall numbers, but he has struggled on the road (5.47 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, team is 1-3). Laffey got a win and pitched well against the Twins on June 12th, but that was in Cleveland. Laffey's only other two starts against the Twins came last season at Minnesota. The results? Eight runs allowed on 12 hits in 9 1/3 innings (7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
Kevin Slowey takes the mound tonight for the Twins. Slowey is riding a scoreless streak of 17 innings. Since starting the season 0-4 with a 5.49 ERA, Slowey has rebounded nicely over his last eight starts, going 5-2 with a 2.72 ERA. He has been especially amazing in his last three starts, sporting a 0.43 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Slowey's only career start against Cleveland came last season in the dome. He allowed one earned run on five hits in five innings of work (1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).
The Twins have the better offense, the better bullpen, the better starter and much
more momentum. I almost made this a Best Bet, but chose not to only because I just had a Best Bet last night and I didn't give out a freebie yesterday.
Take Minnesota and Slowey over Cleveland and Laffey.
San Diego Padres (Peavy) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Davis)
The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +108
Jake Peavy is one of those pitchers who people want to bet on as soon as they hear he is starting. He has that kind of reputation. But Peavy pitches for a poor offensive team and his dominance is usually reserved for Petco Park. The Padres are just 5-8 in Peavy's starts this season and he owns a 5.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road. San Diego won the series opener last night, 5-1. The Padres are 2-11 this season after a win by 4 runs or more. That win last night was just the second in 12 games for the Padres.
Doug Davis gets the call for Arizona and he's been steady since returning from his bout with cancer. The D'backs have won four of Davis' five home starts, where he owns a solid 3.64 ERA. Davis faced the Padres three times last season and allowed just six runs in 19 2/3 innings (2.75 ERA). San Diego is just 9-20 vs. lefty starters this season. Davis is 14-3 (Team's Record) at home over the last 2 seasons when the money line is +125 to -125. Davis is also 8-0 (Team's Record) in home games over the last 2 seasons vs. NL teams batting .255 or worse.
In today's MLB, even the best starting pitchers usually only make into the seventh
inning. So we must always consider the bullpens. San Diego's pen is 3-9 with a 4.60
ERA, 1.49 WHIP and only 45.5% save conversions on the road. That's huge considering Peavy is only averaging 5+ innings in his road starts. Arizona's pen is 5-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 78.6% save conversions at home.
Take the home dog, Arizona with Davis, over San Diego and Peavy.
VERNON CROY
20 Unit MLB AL GAME OF THE MONTH
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees
20 Units, Take the NY Yankees ML, This pick falls into one of my elite MLB systems and I look for Mike Mussina (10-6, 3.87) to have a solid outing at home today after 2 bad starts. Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.75 ERA) has struggled with his control over his last 3 outings walking 11 batters with an ERA of 5.29 and the Red Sox are just 21-25 on the road this season. The Yankees are 15-9 this season at home when the posted total is 9 to 9.5 and Boston is just 2-4 in their last 6 games played. Take the NY Yankees as my MLB AL Game of the Month.
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE BASEBALL BLOWOUT WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Sonnanstine -135
Steven Budin
25 DIME PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES
Wunderdog
Boston at New York Yankees
Pick: Game Total UNDER 10
Where has the offense gone for this Yankees' team? The bullpen has been solid, but the offense has led this team to a startling 32-52-2 mark to the UNDER. This offense has been held to three runs or less 37 times this season. They have plated two or less in four of their last six games. The Red Sox offense has not been as potent on the road, where they have failed to top the three run mark 19 times this season. Today we ride the UNDER in this one.
Nick Jones
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: New York Mets
Always play against a home team like Philadelphia when the money line is +125 to -125 off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This system is 84-42 since 1997.
Ted Sevransky
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto spent much of the first half of the MLB season under-performing, culminating with an ugly 4-15 streak that ended with manager John Gibbons finally getting the boot. New (and former) manager Cito Gaston guided the team to six wins in eight games, and they rallied back to tie from a five run deficit in one of their two losses. The Blue Jays offense has come alive during this stretch, pounding out 44 runs during their weeklong surge. Struggling hitters like Alex Rios, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen are all getting untracked at the same time, giving the offense the punch that it’s been lacking for most of the season. Even though Toronto’s hot streak has cooled off over the last few days, with three straight losses on their current road trip, this is still a dangerous team with a pitching staff that is simply too strong for long term losing skids.
Meanwhile, the Angels offense is headed in the other direction, scoring only 22 runs in their last seven games. For the season, the Angels are hitting 25 points lower against righties than against southpaws, and they’ve struggled repeatedly against Roy Halladay in recent seasons. Halladay has thrown 33.2 innings of work against this LA lineup over the last three years with a 20-4 strikeout to walk ratio and a 2.41 ERA. And with the Blue Jays bullpen ranked #2 in the AL in ERA, don’t expect any late inning meltdowns to steal the win away from Toronto here; an underdog worth backing even against a quality starter like John Lackey. Take Toronto.
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers could have been a little flat after blowing a 5-0 ninth-inning lead on Thursday afternoon in Arizona (D'backs scored six runs in the 9th to win). They weren't. Milwaukee's five-run 5th inning sealed a 9-1 win, Milwaukee's 13th win in their last 16 home games. That isn't exactly something new, as over the previous two seasons, while the Brewers were only 59-103 on the road, they were an impressive 99-63 at home. Milwaukee is now 26-13 at home in '08 (21-26 on the road) and will again face a Pittsburgh team which is struggling on the road. The Pirates have not had a winning season since 1992 and the team's lack of success on the road has been a major reason. The Pirates are 15-26 (.366) on the road this year, a mark that is slightly worse than their road record of the previous four seasons (121-203 .373). Paul Maholm gets the start tonight for Pittsburgh and while he's 3-0 over his last seven starts (team is 5-2), he hasn't been a good road pitcher. In '06 he had a road ERA of 6.25 (team was 5-10) and in '07 a 6.14 ERA (team was 5-9). So far in '08, is road ERA is 5.53 and the Pirates are 2-5. Dave Bush starts for Milwaukee and probably no pitcher mirrors that team's home/away dichotomy any better. Milwaukee has gone 20-10 in Bush's home starts in '06 and '07 but just 10-23 in his road starts (he owned road ERAs of 5.38 in '06 and 6.14 in '07). So it should come as no surprise that his road ERA is 7.11 in '08 (team is 1-7) and his home ERA is 3.18 (team is 5-2). Dave Bush hasn't fared well against the Pirates, as he's just 1-4 with a 6.17 ERA in seven career games (six starts) but I'll stick with the Brewers here at Miller Park against the poor-traveling Pirates and lefty Maholm, as the Brewers are 17-9 vs left-handers in '08 (9-4 at home). Take Milwaukee.