Lenny Del Genio's Triple Play of the MONTH! **7-2 GOM/TOM Run**
Play on NY Yankees at 3:55 ET.
Boston has taken the first two games of this series in impressive fashion to stay within striking distance of the first place Rays while at the same time knocking their hated rivals into a third-place tie with Baltimore. Even with their recent struggles, however, the Yankees remain ahead of last year's pace (were 41-42) and that team made the playoffs. We are by no means saying that this year's installment is a postseason-caliber club, but what we are saying is that they still have some horses in the stable that can get them some needed victories. One of those is Mike Mussina, who, with one exception, has looked great in every start since late-April. However, he does check in off back-to-back losses due to weak run support. Since losing to Boston on 4/23, Mussina is 9-3 with a 3.36 ERA. Pride is on the line here as no Boston team has won four straight games here at Yankee Stadium since 1986! We think that he and the Yanks get back on track here as Boston was just 4-15 on the road vs. .500 or better competition heading into this series, plus the Red Sox are just 15-24 on the road vs. righties. Note that Sox starter Justin Masterson has allowed four runs and walked four or more in each of his last two outings. Take NY Yankees.
Play on Minnesota at 7:10 ET.
Really? If the oddsmakers are going to keep giving us the Twins at this price, then you should keep taking them. Following yesterday's dominant 12-3 victory, Minnesota has now won 14 of its last 16 while Cleveland has now dropped six straight. It's been a sad year for the Tribe, who was expected to contend for a division title, but they instead find themselves in the Central cellar, even looking up at Kansas City. That's pretty bad. Even worse news is they must now contend with the Twins' Kevin Slowey, who has a 3-0 TSR and 0.43 ERA his last three starts. Not good news for a team that ranks right near the bottom of the league in all major hitting categories. Slowey enters into Saturday's game on a 16-inning scoreless streak and has fanned 24 batters in 29 innings. Cleveland is also just 8-19 as an underdog this season. Tribe starter Aaron Laffey has seen his team drop all of his previous three outings. Take Minnesota.
Play on LA Dodgers at 9:05 ET.
We could take the easy route here and simply point out that Barry Zito is pitching for the Giants, but in the interest of fairness, let's divulge more. Nine times this year Zito has toed the rubber at home, all nine as an underdog, and all nine times he's lost. LA has moved within a game of first place in the terrible NL West and has taken three of four this season from their division rival. Chan Ho Park has pitched pretty well, both as a starter and a reliever, but since moving to his new role his ERA has dipped all the way to 1.20. San Francisco is just 10-20 at home vs. righties this season while the Dodgers are averaging a healthy five runs per game vs. southpaws. Overall, LA has won 15 of the last 19 meetings here at AT&T Park. Take LA Dodgers.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* MLB DIV. DOMINATOR GOW! *5-1, 83% Winners!
I'm laying the price with the Twins on Saturday.
Minnesota is breathing down the White Sox necks, currently on a 16-3 run, including 3-0 in July. The 16 wins have come by a whopping grand total of 74 runs, or 4.6 runs per game! That's about as hot as it gets. Today, Minnesota should have their way with lefty Aaron Laffey, who really struggles in this situation. Laffey has a 6.50 ERA in road night outings this season, and he's allowing a hefty 15.5 hits & walks per nine innings pitched. Those are great numbers for those of us backing a Twins' lineup that has scored 25 runs in three games this month. Minny will counter with Kevin Slowey. The righthander has pitched well in 10 of his 12 starts this season. Minnesota has cashed each of his last four starts...by a combined score of 29 to 5! Slowey owns a miserly, 0.93 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in those four outings! The Twins are surging while the Tribe is collapsing before our eyes. I'll back the under-valued Twins on Saturday.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (19-12 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi White Sox at 7:05 ET. The A's have completely shut down the White Sox in Chicago on Thursday and Friday, winning 3-2 and 7-1. The White Sox had entered this series on a seven-game overall winning streak with nine straight home wins, as well as 18 wins in their previous 20 home games. Chicago was batting .313 as a team during that 20-game span while scoring 148 runs (7.4 per). However, the Chicago bats have been 'quiet' the last two nights. Lefty Greg Smith goes for Oakland on Saturday. The A's won his first four starts this year (he was 2-0) but he's just 3-6 over his last 12 (team is 5-7). He made six starts in June, allowing four ERs or more three times and just one ER in each one of his other three starts. The White Sox have done well vs lefties here at home this year (12-5), so expect those Chicago bats to 'wake up' tonight. Gavin Floyd gets the start for Chicago. Floyd entered this season with a four-year mark of 8-10 with a 6.30 ERA, including going 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA for the White Sox last year (team was 3-7 in his 10 starts). So no one could have predicted his '08 performance, which has him 9-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 starts (team is 11-5). In his nine home starts this year, he's 6-1 with a 2.87 ERA (White Sox are 8-1). Oakland owns a team batting average of .252 (only the Indians are worse in the AL), so don't expect the A's to come anywhere near matching the 17 hits they got last night. Las Vegas Insider on the Chi White Sox.
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB (4-1since June 17)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. I went against the Indians last night and came away with an easy 12-3 win. Second verse, same as the first! Cleveland won 96 games last year and were one win away from a World Series appearance (led Boston 3-1 in the ALCS but lost three straight games). The '08 Indians look NOTHING like last year's team. They have now lost six straight games and are in last-place in the AL Central (37-49), 12 games behind the White Sox. They own an AL-low .246 batting average and are the AL's worst road team, going 15-27. Meanwhile, the Twins have now won 16 of their last 19 games, while averaging 6.3 RPG. It's not just the offense that's 'clicking,' as Minnesota owns a team ERA of just under 2.50 during its current run. Starting tonight is Kevin Slowey. He's been a HUGE part of that current pitching surge. After making a start on April 3, Slowey was placed on the DL with a right biceps strain and didn't get back in the rotation until May 8. He opened the season 0-4 but then pitched back-to-back excellent games, including a complete game 5-1 win at KC. After two losses, Slowey (like his team), has caught 'fire.' He's 3-0 in his last four outings, with the Twins winning all four. It's no wonder, as he's allowed only three ERs over 29 innings for an 0.93 ERA! In his last outing, he threw his second complete game of the season, a 5-0 shutout of the Brewers, out-dueling Ben Sheets! Cleveland can only counter with Aaron Laffey. Now Laffey did have a Slowey-like streak earlier this year, allowing just three ERs over a five-start stretch (34 innings) in which his ERA was 0.79. However, the Indians were only able to go 3-2 in that span, despite his great efforts. That kind of sums up Cleveland's woes this year. Laffey enters this game with an 0-2 mark (4.59 ERA) in his last three outings (team is 0-3) and is really no match for the red-hot Twins lineup or his mound opponent, Slowey. This game has blowout written all over it. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Min Twins.
Larry Ness' 15* Situational Game of the Week (45-33 with GOW plays since Opening Day)
My 15* play is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. If anyone was expecting a "let down" by the Rays after their sweep of the Red Sox, they were wrong. The Rays beat the Royals 11-2 last night, their NINTH win in their last 10 games. The second game of this three-game series features Zach Greinke vs Andy Sonnanstine. Greinke is talented but his road ERA in '08 (4.30 ERA) is almost two runs higher than his home ERA (2.57). He'll be facing a Tampa team which is now 34-13 at home on the year, having won 30 of its last 36. The Rays are also 26-8 at home vs righties. The Royals with face Sonnanastine and while he's hardly a dominating pitcher, he doesn't need to be with the way his team plays behind him. Sonnanstine is 9-3 with a 4.60 ERA, as the Rays are 13-4 in his starts. At plus-$947 vs the moneyline, he's MLB's sixth-best "money-maker" among starters. The Rays have won his last six starts (he's 3-0), as he not allowed more than three ERs in ANY of them. As for the Royals, let's note that while they are 39-48 on the season, that includes a 13-5 mark in interleague play. In games against just AL opponents, the Royals are only 26-43 (.377), which gives them the worst AL-only record of any team in the junior circuit (Mariners just edge them at 25-41). The simple fact is, the Rays own all the edges. Situational GOW 15* TB Rays.
KingTSports Minnesota Twins
Tippster.ca Atlanta Braves
One Thousand to One Million Dollars St Louis Cardinals
seeyouinthewinnerscircle Milwaukee Brewers
WildBill Philadelphia Phillies
Hollywood Eddie Atlanta Braves
KM Sports Computer Sheet St Louis Cardinals
rub Arizona D-backs
T-Dot San Francisco Giants
GAMETIMEDECISION Chicago White Sox
Harris Sports St Louis Cardinals
DannySports Seattle Mariners
jokers sports Philadelphia Soul
PRICELESS PICKS
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -159
Atlanta is an impressive 13-2 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Braves are winning these contests by 2.4 runs per game. Houston is just 3-13 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) this season. The Braves will pick up another win against the Astros here.
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
NY Yankees w/Mussina -130
Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections
GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Sonnanstine -135
Rocketman
Washington @ Cincinnati
Play On: 1* Washington +130
Cincinnati is scoring only 4.1 runs per game against right handed starterst this year. Tim Redding is 6-3 overall this year including 3-0 on the road this season. Fogg is 1-2 with a 9.85 ERA overall this year, 1-2 with a 13.82 ERA in all starts this year, 0-1 with a 14.73 ERA at home and a 13.94 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!
Brian Gabrielle
Coke Zero 400: Saturday Night at Daytona
Last Week: It might've been a double-win, except rain came to NewHampshire and washed out Denny Hamlin's attempt to give us the straight-up win. But we did take our head-to-head bet, breaking our slide, when ClintBowyer was able to barely stay in front of Kasey Kahne, despite bringing out the caution that would wind up ending the race. It had been a bad June to that point, so we'll take it. For the week, we won 0.17 units on 1.5 units wagered, a return of 11.3%; for the season, we've profited 3.37 units on 24.5 units wagered, a return of 13.8%, and we've given you winning weeks in 13 of 17 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost 2.33 units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 4.41 units on 67 units wagered, a return of 6.6%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Kyle Busch (+500), 1/6th unit. Saturday night's race is at Daytona, under the lights, and on plate tracks this season no team has had consistently good cars more frequently than Gibbs. Busch won at Talladega earlier this season, and led 86 laps in the Daytona 500 before fading a bit at the end. He didn't perform as well as I thought he'd do last week at Loudon, but I have hopes that he'll be near the front on Saturday night, and thus avoid the Big One and be in contention at the end.
Take Tony Stewart (+400), 1/6th unit. Smoke's season has been terribly snake-bitten at this point, including a race he completely dominated last week at Loudon but wound up losing on bad pit strategy (and that pesky rainstorm). He's rumored to be leaving Gibbs at the end of this year, potentially for an ownership stake at Haas CNC, but he almost certainly has one more great summer run in him for Gibbs. Stewart led on the last lap in the Daytona 500 back in February, but got passed by the Penske cars and finished third.
Take Jimmie Johnson (+1000), 1/6th unit. Repeat after me: qualifying doesn't matter at a plate track. J.J. rolls off 30th on Saturday night, and so long as he's lucky enough to escape wrecking while he's back there, I'm assuming he'll come straight to the front. He has great drafting partners in Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+500) and Jeff Gordon (+1000), and he feels like Daytona owes him something. Since winning the 500 back in '06, Johnson has gotten wrecked three times in four races here. He's too good for that to keep happening, so his is the Hendrick car (and the sweet odds) I'll watch.
In this week's head-to-head match-up, take Johnson over Denny Hamlin (-115), 1 unit. I just got through saying Gibbs has been best on the plate tracks this year, behind that powerful Toyota engine, so why take J.J. in a dead-even match-up against Hamlin? For me it comes down to consistency; while I know Johnson has been wrecked out of a bunch of theseplate races lately, he's generally known as a steady driver who doesn'tmake mistakes. Not so Hamlin, who's been wrecked by his own teammate at this track, who leads races and blows tires, and who's been known to get a little hotheaded in his time. Each of these guys will have great drafting partners available, and I'm not going to be surprised to see either of them win the race outright. But given his profile of steadiness, I'd rather cast my lot with Johnson.
Root
Chairman - W.Sox
Millionaire - Angels
Insiders Circle - Yankees
Perfect Play - Arizona
LEE KOSTROSKI
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals
PICK: St Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is hitting .319 in the last ten games against left-handed pitching and St. Louis is 25-19 at home on the season. The Cubs were winners on the road against a team with a winning record yesterday for just the third time this season and it will be difficult to win a second straight game in a tough venue. The Cubs are also hitting just .254 on the road this season and Chicago is seven games below .500 away from home.
Everyone keeps waiting for Kyle Lohse to revert to his old form and inconsistency but he is a near-lock for the All-Star team having put together a remarkable first half of the season. St. Louis is 8-1 in his last nine starts and he has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of those starts. At home he owns a remarkable 2.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
Ted Lilly has put together decent numbers for the Cardinals but he still walks a great deal of batters and he has a 4.56 ERA on the season with suspect numbers in road games. The Cubs have also required significant innings from the bullpen in recent games and this will be a tough situation facing an eighth consecutive road game. The Cardinals are 13-3 in the last 16 Saturday games and this looks like another good spot for the Cardinals.
Jeff Scott Early Plays
2 Units Cubs / Stl Over
1 Unit Bos / Nyy Under
NSA
20* Minnesota -135
10* Detroit -135
10* Boston +120
10* Angels -125
10* White Sox -125
10* Tampa Bay -145
VEGAS RUNNER
ATL -1.5 (+125) vs HOU 1* RL WAGER
NASCAR for SATURDAY
TONY STEWART +500 2*
BOXING on SHOWTIME for SATURDAY
RICARDO TORRES +230 1*
Ben Burns
5* NY Yankees
4* Baltimore Orioles
4* Astros/Braves over 9.5