Dave Cokin
Astros @ Nationals
Play: Nationals
I've watched the first two starts of Washington rookie Colin Balester, and he's made a very positive impression. Balester's numbers weren't all that great last start, but in fact he retired the first nine hitters he faced in that contest before running into some tough pitching luck after that. Balester draws a very capable mound adversary here in Wandy Rodriguez, but the Astros as just awful on the road and are getting overpriced here. I prefer taking the home dog odds with Balester and the Nationals.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Florida w/Nolasco
The Marlins continue their weekend series with the Dodgers tonight when they send smoking-hot Ricky Nolasco to the hill in Los Angeles. Since re-entering the starting staff Nolasco has been on fire with 9 wins in his last 10 starts, including his last 6 in a row. As a result Nolasco is in commanding KW form with 1 walk and 24 strikeouts in his last three starts and 2 walks and 22 strikeouts in his last three road efforts. As the old adage goes, "You've got to ride 'em when they're hot" and Nolasco is on fire. Back the Fish and Nolasco here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have not been the same team that made the World Series last year but they still have talent. Colorado is 7-4 in their last 11 games. The Rockies are also 7-4 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Jimenez has struggled this season but the Rockies are 5-2 in his last 7 starts. The Mets are red hot but today they send a cold Pedro Martinez to the mound. The Mets are 3-5 when Pedro's on the mound this season. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 7.31. The Mets are 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Colorado is 7-4 in their last 11 trips to New York. Play on the Colorado Rockies +.
Scott Ferrall
Seattle +120 over Kansas City--Washburn over Meche at Kaufmann. Lots of runs here as niether guy can keep hitters off the bases. OVER 8.5 RUNS
ANGELS -115 over Oakland--It won't be easy for him, but Ervin Santana gets back on track against EVeland and the A's in the East Bay. OVER 7.5 RUNS--because all the action will be on the under--just when you think no one will score--they'll tear it up and put up a bunch of runs
CINCY -105 over Milwaukee--Volquez is the man in the Queen City, but this one's in Miller Park. I still think he does the job and beats McClung and the Brew Crew. UNDER 8.5 RUNS
Houston -120 over Washington--I'm crossing my fingers and hoping Wandy Rodriguez can win on the road in DC. The NAts never string together wins, so they'll be due to lose again. Balester has a high ERA, so TAKE THE OVER 8.5 RUNS
SAN DIEGO -115 over Atlanta--You know Greg Maddux is going to knock off his former club in So.Cal on a Saturday night. Morton's ERA is sky high for the Braves (6.84)--TAKE THE OVER 8 RUNS--Maddux has a lousy record (3-7) so don't rust him going deep in to this one.
LA -140 over Florida--Kuroda has looked real sharp of late and almost had a perfect game Monday vs Atlanta. I'm with the Dodgers because of him. It's not going to be a walk in the park though--Nolasco is 10-4 for the Marlins. Higher risk going with LA. UNDER 7.5 RUNS
DUNKEL
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's loss to the Reds and build on their 12-5 record at home when the line is between -100 and -125. Milwaukee is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105). Here are all of today's games.
SATURDAY, JULY 12
Game 951-952: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Correia) 13.425; Cubs (Harden) 16.103
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-240); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-240); N/A
Game 953-954: Colorado at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.793; NY Mets (Martinez) 16.207
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-130); Over
Game 955-956: Arizona at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Johnson) 14.629; Philadelphia (Eaton) 14.180
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Under
Game 957-958: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 14.099; Pittsburgh (Herrera) 14.677
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.429; Milwaukee (McClung) 16.240
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-105); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over
Game 961-962: Houston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.820; Washington (Balester) 15.706
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-115); Under
Game 963-964: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Morton) 14.187; San Diego (Maddux) 14.796
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under
Game 965-966: Florida at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.096; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.583
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+125); Under
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Rasner) 13.908; Toronto (Litsch) 16.684
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-105); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Under
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.089; Detroit (Robertson) 15.816
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Liz) 14.596; Boston (Wakefield) 16.739
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-190); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-190); Over
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.154; Cleveland (Ginter) 14.343
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under
Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.512; Texas (Millwood) 14.704
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under
Game 977-978: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.150; Kansas City (Meche) 15.777
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under
Game 979-980: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.845; Oakland (Eveland) 14.916
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Under
STU FINER
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Rasner has been struggling since his torrid beginning there is no question to that. Tonight he will get things turned around. Rasner doesn’t have to be perfect to win ball games. It was great that he was going out there only allowing a few earned runs. Ranser hasn’t been terrible in his last two starts. He faced a very good Red Sox team last time out and only had one bad outing. He allowed runs in just one inning; unfortunately it was a big inning.
Rasner pitched well against the Mets. Five innings and just two earned runs. For the season Rasner still has four wins in eleven starts and still has an ERA under 5.00. The Yankees don’t struggle on the road like other teams do. They are one of only a handful of teams that is .500 or above on the road.
Last night the Yankees faced the Blue Jays ace and arguably the best pitcher in the American League in Roy Halladay. Tonight the Yankees face an average pitcher in Jesse Litsch. He started out hot but has cooled down dramatically. His last start against just an average Angels team, he allowed six runs and eight hits in just five plus innings of work. Yankees take game two.
New York Yankees (-)
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
The Twins are still playing solid baseball. They have been on in an incredible stretch for almost a full month. Once again they are typical of the 2008 major league season. The Twins are vastly weaker on the road.
When you start to look at the home/road splits for these two teams you realize that they are things that can’t be ignored. You can’t just brush these numbers to the side. The Twins play just .452 baseball on the road. The Tigers on the other hand play .600 baseball in their own building.
It isn’t just their records folks. The Twins on the road hit .272. The Tigers at home hit .308 and they can pitch too. Nate Robertson pitches much better at home. Nate is just 3-5 on the road but at home he is 3-2 and has an ERA that is just at the 4.00 mark. Look for the Tigers to take the game two.
Detroit Tigers (-)
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians
Like the Rays to get it back going here tonight in Cleveland. Just because the Indians play well for a game or two doesn’t mean that they are all of a sudden a solid baseball team. In fact they may be one of the worst teams in all of baseball. They are without their number three hitter, they are without their clean-up batter and their pitching is decimated. Not only are the Indians now without C.C. Sabathia they also have their number two Fausto Cormona on the disabled list. To make matters worse the Indians are now without any real closer. Joe Borrowski has been designated for assignment and is now off the Indians squad.
The Rays send Matt Garza to the mound. Matt Garza has been real good all season. His last five starts have all been more than solid. Four of his last five starts have been of the quality fashion. His last three starts he has allowed a total of four earned runs. 22 innings, 18 strikeouts and just 15 hits. Those are numbers that can’t be ignored.
Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Is there anyone better than the Red Sox at home? Time and time they prove again that they are the best home team in all of baseball. This isn’t a team that is five games over .500 or ten games over .500 or even twenty games over .500. The Red Sox already have won over thirty games at home this season.
The Red Sox as a team hit .296 in their building. That is scary folks. Teams are looking for one or two players to hit .300 in their line-up. The Red Sox as a team hit .296 in Fenway, not their starting line-up, not their every day line-up but the entire team hits close to .300 in their home games. Those numbers are down right scary.
Boston doesn’t just hit at home, they pitch just as well as anyone too. Opponents hit just .246 against Red Sox pitching. The Red Sox staff at home has an ERA of 3.38. Listen we can go on and on about how good the Sox are at home.
Bottom line here tonight we have the better pitcher, the better team and at home. Tim Wakefield has been pitching fantastic for quite a while now. The Sox will win again here today.
Boston Red Sox (-)
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
Is there anyone more under-rated than John Danks in all of baseball? This guy is by far the biggest all-star snub in all of baseball. You may look at John’s record and think he has been just an average pitcher. John is just 6-4 on the season. John has the third best ERA in the American league.
Danks is one of the few pitchers that actually succeeds on the road. Danks hasn’t been good on the road he has been on another level. Danks is 3-1 on the season on the road. He has thrown 48.2 innings on the run has allowed a total of eight runs. EIGHT total runs on the road all season. John also has a three to one strikeout to walk ratio. What else is impressive is the fact he has allowed just two home-runs on the road. All season John has kept the ball down. He has allowed just seven home-runs all season. There are pitchers that allow seven home-runs in a week, in two starts.
Danks should be in the All-Star game. Danks is 2-0 in his last three starts and has a 1.33 ERA. The White Sox can win on the road. Look for them to take this game behind their man John Danks.
Chicago White Sox (Even)
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
Gil Meche goes for the Royals tonight. Gil has been pitching well for a long time. Gil didn’t start off the season real well. His last ten starts have all been more than solid. Gil hasn’t allowed more than four runs since the middle of May. Ten straight starts with four or less runs. That is not an easy accomplishment folks.
Gil has lost just one game since June 6 and that was on the road against the White Sox. Gil hasn’t lost a start in his own building since back on May 9. Meche has struck out seventeen men in his last two starts. Gil has started to get on top of the ball and work down in the zone.
Meche has allowed two home runs since May. Last year Gil was the best pitcher in baseball not to win double-digit games, his ERA of 3.67 reflects how good he really was.
Kansas City Royals (-)
LA Angels at Oakland Athletics
Dana Eveland has been pitcher that has been pitching really well for a long time now folks. Dana hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his last seven starts. Eveland has lost just one time in his last six starts. You better believe he has earned those wins as well.
Eveland’s only problems have been his control. He has a tendency to walk a few too many batters. Five walks in his last two starts. To see how good his stuff is just take a look at his innings to walk totals. Dana has logged 108 innings and allowed just 98 hits.
The Angels are a good baseball team but they aren’t a great offensive baseball team. They win with ball games in other ways. Giving the home team this price is too good to pass up. The Athletics get the job done at home.
Oakland Athletics (-)
National League
San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
Rich Harden comes to Chicago to make his first start as a Chicago Cub. Harden has been great all-season. Rich heads to the National League and will be even better. Rich is going to be able to breeze through these line-ups. There is no better line-up to make his first start against.
The San Fran Giants offense is not bad they are awful. They are one of three teams that don’t even average four runs per game. As a team they hit under .255. They hit .254 as a team. Not only do they not hit as a team, but they have absolutely no power. The Giants have hit just 57 home-runs. 57 home- runs all season. When you realize there are teams that have their heart of the line-up have more than 57 home-runs you realize how bad that statistic really is.
Rich Harden can shut down the best line-ups in all of baseball, he will have no problems make the smooth move to the NL and to the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs (-)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
We like the upset here tonight. Really liked the way the Diamondbacks played last night. They were down late but scored five runs late and took the lead. Arizona’s bats really came through. The Diamondbacks pounded out ten plus hits last night.
Randy Johnson was not just good in his last start he was awesome. Randy threw six plus innings in his last start. In those six plus innings he allowed just three hits, didn’t walk a batter and allowed one run. Randy also struck out ten batters. Randy still has that type of stuff folks.
Randy has pitched better on the road. Randy has an ERA of just 3.77 and has allowed just two home-runs all season away from Arizona.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+)
Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers
We know that Edinson Volquez is good but don’t fall in to this trap and get on the Reds tonight. You have to remember you are playing the Reds, you aren’t just playing the starting pitchers.
The Reds are an awful road team folks. They are just 18-30 on the road. Volquez has been real good all season. He is 11-3 this season, but don’t just look at it on the surface. The Reds ace hasn’t nearly been as solid on the road. At home Volquez is 6-0, on the road he is just 5-3. We are not here to tell you Edinson is bad on the road by any stretch, but this guy is not the same. The Reds as a team struggle on the road. Their middle relief struggles and they don’t have enough good hitters in the line-up.
Milwaukee Brewers (-)
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
We like the Pirates to bounce back here tonight. The Cardinals offense did a nice job last night but they haven’t been consistent folks. Even their manager has talked about their struggles at the plate. He said they are getting themselves into bad hitting counts or swinging at the pitchers pitches.
The Cardinals are a veteran group. They will be facing a rookie here tonight and that spells trouble. The Cardinals will have very little to go off of tonight’s starter. Yoslan Herrera makes his major league debut. This guy is one of the top rated prospects in the organization. This isn’t just some fill in or desperate call up.
Wellemeyer hasn’t been quite right the last few starts. That is for good reason as well. Todd has been having some injury issues. He has already had to have a few starts pushed back. You don’t think it is bothering him? He is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his recent appearances. Think again then folks. The Pirates can hit and they will get the job done!
Pittsburgh Pirates (+)
Houston Astros at Washington Nationals
How about those Washington Nationals last night folks? Right here we told you to get on board with them and we hope you did. Last night they blew out the Astros. Washington ended up putting up double-digit runs and pounding out twelve hits. A major problem tonight for the Astros is going to be the status of their bullpen.
Astros pitchers do not go deep in to games. Whether it is their “ace” or their number five starter, the bottom line is the Astros pitchers are in and out of games. Heck as a team they have just 40 quality starts all season. A quality start isn’t even a great start folks. You have to go six plus innings and allow three earned runs or less. Houston just doesn’t have the arms to do so.
Houston’s Roy Oswalt came back last night and is once again injured. Astros bullpen had to pitch seven innings of relief (home team didn’t bat in ninth). Houston had to send six total pitchers to the hill which included five relievers. Tonight look for a better start from Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez but the bullpen will give it up late.
Washington Nationals (EVEN)
Florida Marlins at LA Dodgers
The Dodgers just can’t move out from their up and down rut that they are in. The Dodgers are a typical .500 team. They are at or about .500 but don’t move too far away either on the plus or the negative side. The Dodgers lost their last two games, before that they won three out of four games. Before that they lost a game, then they won three more before that. I am sure you see the pattern.
The Dodgers will be able to bounce back tonight. There is a sure-fire reason why they don’t go on real losing streaks. The Dodgers have pitching, not some but a lot. They have the fourth best ERA in all of baseball.
Hiroki Kuroda has really been on folks, not just the last few starts but he has been steady all season. Sure he is 5-6 but he has won two of his last three games and he actually flirted with a perfect game. Kuroda was still great in his last game. He ended up throwing a complete game one hit shutout. A 3-0 victory for the Dodgers. LA won’t have to score a ton of runs tonight, just enough to win.
LA Dodgers (-)
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
The Padres played well and won last nights contest. They actually shut out the Braves. The Braves were limited to just eight hits and didn’t score a run. There was one main reason why that shutout occurred. Tonight the Padres won’t have that same type of luxury.
Jake Peavy was dominant last night. He went out there and just made pitch after pitch. All told Jake went seven innings, allowed four hits, striking out seven and walking just one batter. There is a big difference and a big drop off tonight.
Josh Banks goes for the Padres tonight. Josh has made seven starts this season. In those seven starts the Padres have won just two of them. Josh is having a tough time right now. He has dropped three straight games and has an ERA over 6.00 in that time. The Braves still have a top level offense. They will win this West Coast game here tonight.
Atlanta Braves (+)
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (46-47) at Philadelphia (50-43)
The Phillies are looking for their fourth straight victory when they send veteran Adam Eaton (3-7, 5.20 ERA) to the mound to face Arizona southpaw Randy Johnson (5-7, 5.18) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
Philadelphia took Friday’s game 6-5 in 12 innings when Jayson Werth delivered the game-winning RBI after Shane Victorino had a two-run triple in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game at 5. Arizona is still 5-3 in the last eight series meetings and 5-3 in the last eight in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are 4-4 on their current 10-game homestand but have rebounded to win three in a row after a four-game losing streak. They are 12-5 against lefties and 11-4 against southpaws at home, but they are on slides of 5-12 as a favorite, 4-9 at home and 3-9 as a home favorite.
Arizona has been lousy on the road this season, going 19-28 away from home and 10-22 in their last 32 and 10-25 on the road against right-handed starters. The D-Backs are 8-22 against teams with a winning record and 5-22 on the road against winning teams.
Johnson is just 1-2 with a 5.62 ERA in his last three outings, while the D-Backs are 1-6 in his seven roadies. On Sunday, he limited the Padres to one run on three hits for 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 victory. He faced the Phillies back on May 6 and gave up four runs on six hits in six innings of a 6-4 victory. For his career, Johnson is 10-3 in 19 starts against Philadelphia with a 2.61 ERA.
Eaton has been horrible lately, posting a 1-2 mark in his last three with a 6.75 ERA. The Phillies have lost four of his last five and he’s allowed three runs or more in five of his last six, including Monday when the Mets got to him for eight runs (six earned) on 10 hits in 2 2/3 innings of a 10-9 loss. In 14 career starts, Eaton is 3-5 with a 4.23 ERA against Arizona.
Arizona is on a 21-8 streak when Johnson faces the N.L. East and 10-2 when he goes up against the Phillies, but they are on slides of 0-7 with him on the road against a team with a inning record and 2-6 when he’s a ‘dog. The Phillies are on slides of 0-6 when Eaton goes on Saturday and 2-6 when he pitches the second game of a series.
The D-Backs are on under runs of 14-2 with Johnson on the road and 28-12-2 in his last 42 overall. The Phillies are on under streaks of 10-1 in Eaton’s last 11 at home and 16-5 in his last 22 overall.
As a team, the under is on runs of 25-11 overall, 8-3 at home and 14-5 on Saturdays. Arizona is on under streaks of 13-4-2 overall, 38-19-3 on the road against teams with a winning record and 10-3-1 against right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (53-39) at Texas (49-45)
The Rangers try to make it two in a row over the White Sox when they send veteran Kevin Millwood (6-4, 4.93 ERA) to the mound to face Chicago lefty John Danks (6-4, 2.52) at the Ballpark at Arlington.
Texas has beaten the White Sox four straight times dating back to last season, including Friday’s 7-2 victory Friday thanks to a five-run third inning. The Rangers are 13-7 in their last 20 meetings with Chicago and have won four straight at home against the Pale Hose. Overall, Texas has won three of its last four and it is on a 16-5 run in the second game of a series.
The White Sox have now dropped two straight after a four-game winning streak. They are just 4-12 in their last 16 on the road, but they are on positive runs of 36-15 as a favorite, 21-11 against right-handed starters and 6-2 as a road favorite.
Danks has been outstanding in his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and he’s 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA in eight road starts. He’s had five straight outings where he’s allowed two runs or less, and the White Sox are 6-2 in his last eight trips to the hill. He faced the Rangers last season and gave up five runs (two earned) on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-1 loss in the Lone Star state.
Millwood is a perfect 4-0 with a 4.86 ERA in seven starts at home. Texas is 7-2 in his last nine outings overall, but this is his first work in front of the home crowd since June 5, a streak of six straight starts on the road. He opposed Danks in that 5-1 win last season and gave up one run on six hits in seven innings. In seven career starts, he is 1-3 with a 2.15 ERA against Chicago.
The White Sox are on slides of 0-6 when Danks pitches on Saturdays, 2-5 when he faces an A.L. West squad, 2-5 against a winning team and 3-9 when he gets five days of rest. The Rangers are 20-7 in Millwood’s last 27 home starts, 7-1 when he’s an underdog and 4-0 against A.L. Central opposition.
With Danks is on the hill, the under is on streaks of 19-7 overall, 8-1 with him on the road, 18-6-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 on Saturdays. With Millwood toeing the rubber for the Rangers, the over is on runs of 9-3-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home, 7-3-1 on five days of rest and 4-0 against the A.L. Central.
As a team, Chicago is on under streaks of 13-5 on the road, 25-9 on the road against a winning home team, 11-5 on Saturdays and 36-16 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Texas has topped the total in 20 of 30 against the A.L. Central and 11 of 17 as a home ‘dog.
In this series, the under is 7-1-1 in the last nine overall and 6-0-1 in Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
L.A. Angels (55-38) at Oakland (51-42)
The A’s took the opener of this key A.L. West series last night and now try to make it two in a row with left-hander Dana Eveland (7-5, 3.50) taking on Angels All-Star pitcher Ervin Santana (10-3, 3.53) at McAfee Coliseum in Oakland.
Oakland scored a 9-2 win on Friday thanks to a six-run third inning and has now drawn to within four games of the division-leading Angels. These teams have already met 11 times this season with Los Angeles holding a slight 6-5 advantage.
The Angels have dropped three of their last four, but they are still on streaks of 13-7 on the road, 16-8 against the A.L. West, 16-5 against southpaws and 62-27 in the second game of a series. Oakland has won four of its last five, but is on slides of 8-15 as an underdog and 1-5 on Saturdays.
Santana is 7-1 on the road with a 3.77 ERA but he got hammered in his last outing, giving up six runs on 10 hits in seven innings in Monday’s 9-6 loss in Texas. He has dominated the A’s in his career, posting an 8-1 mark with a 1.48 ERA in 13 outings. He’s already seen them three times this season and has allowed a combined four runs in 20 innings as the Angels are 2-1.
Eveland has gone 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA in front of the home fans. He’s held the opposition to three runs or less in seven straight outings, but he gave up three runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-4 loss to the Angels on July 2. Oakland is 0-2 in his two career starts against the Angels (both this year) as he’s allowed nine runs in 11 innings.
Los Angeles is 21-6 with Santana on the hill against A.L. West rivals, 20-8 when he’s a favorite and 11-4 when he goes on Saturdays. Oakland is 7-3 in Eveland’s last 10 home starts but 0-4 as a ‘dog.
The over is 26-12-4 in Santana’s last 42 on the road and 10-4-1 when he’s a road favorite, while the under is 11-5-2 in Eveland’s last 18 and 6-1 when he’s a ‘dog.
For the A’s overall, the under is on streaks of 20-8 as a ‘dog, 9-3 against right-handed starters and 8-3 at home. Los Angeles is on under runs of 33-17-3 overall, 45-21-5 against left-handed starters and 23-10-2 on the highway.
In this rivalry, the under is a whopping 40-20-3 in the last 63, 9-3 with Santana on the hill and 5-2-2 in the last nine in Oakland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
Jim Feist
FLA Marlins and LA Dodgers
Take Under
An exciting pitching matchup here on Saturday as Ricky Nolasco matches up against Hiroki Kuroda. Nolasco has won five straight decisions for the Marlins and is now 10-4 on the season. Kuroda came within one 8th inning hit of a perfect game for the Dodgers his last time out. Moreover, Kuroda has not allowed a run in his last two starts (16 innings) and is a perfect 3-0 at home. Two very strong pitchers, two teams a bit weak in the hitting department, looks like an under to us!!
Carlo Campanella
Florida Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Florida Marlins
The Dodgers have struggled against teams that can put runs on the board this season. We find that at just 6-15 against N.L. teams scoring 4.8 runs per game or more this season. With the Marlins averaging 4.9 runs this year and winning 4 of their last 5 games, we'll back this live road Dog on Saturday.
7* Play On Florida
JOHN RYAN
Arizona D-Backs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia Phils starting role again and not surprising given that they have the sound foundation of the best bullpen in baseball. CWS also have a fantastic group of relief pitchers so perhaps they are equal to the Phils. Nevertheless, the Phils bullpen anchors this team greatly and it will once again show a dominant impact on this game today. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 49-11 making 33.8 units since 2002. Play against road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing and is now facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting a WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts. Arizona is just 1-12 (-12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage of 51% to 54% this season.
BIG AL
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: At 7:05 pm, our member selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers with Seth McClung over Cincy and Edinson Volquez. The Brew Crew is a solid 81-46 at home at Miller Park the past two seasons, while Cincy is a poor 13-20 vs. division foes this year. Volquez has a dismal 6.32 ERA over his last three starts. The Brewers offense is playing well right now, and has put up at least five runs in six of their last nine games. Take Milwaukee.
JOHN FINA
Florida/Los Angeles Under 7.5
Today we see a low-scoring game as the Florida Marlins do battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers. One reason why we see a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. This says it all... The Florida Marlins Starting Pitcher (Ricky Nolasco) has a 1.57 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Pitcher (Hiroki Kuroda) has a 2.95 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these teams will be using solid starting pitchers. The Under is 10-2 in the Los Angeles Dodgers last 12 home games, and we expect to see another low-scoring game tonight. Take the Florida Marlins/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7.5
JEFF BENTON
I know Tim Wakefield is a knuckleballer, but hes still defying Father Time. The soon-to-be 42-year-old has now strung together eight straight quality starts for the Red Sox, pitching into the seventh inning in every one of those outings. Problem is, theyve pretty much been wasted efforts, as the Red Sox have lost six of Wakefields last nine starts, and theyre just 8-10 in his 18 outings this year. Sorry, but if Vegas is going to make a pitcher with a sub-.500 record THIS big of a favorite, I have to take a shot with the underdog.
And the Orioles are a spunky underdog indeed, as they proved last night in winning 7-3 at Boston as a +185 pup. And theyve been solid with young righthander Radhames Liz on the mound. Baltimore is 5-2 in Liz?s seven starts, including 3-1 on the road, where the Os are supporting him with an even seven runs per game. In fact, in Lizs his last five starts, the Orioles have scored 8, 8, 11, 7 and 10 runs, winning four of the contests (the lone loss was an 11-10 shootout to Texas at home on Sunday.
Bottom line: For whatever reason, some pitchers get more offensive support than others, and right now, Liz getting a big lift from his offense each time out, while Wakefield has not (Boston has scored four or less in five of his last eight outings, losing all five, including a 6-3 loss at Baltimore on June 2). Play Baltimore.
2♦ ORIOLES
MATT RIVERS
For Saturday take the Mets at home
I know all about the recent success of Ubaldo Jimenez after the rough first few months to the season. I also am very familiar with Pedro Martinez who is not close to being the Pedro Martinez of old. But the value here is too much to pass up on the far superior and home Mets.
Colorado is a beat up club who will once again be without Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki. There is still some potential here with Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe but the Rockies on the road have been a total disaster and are up against a very talented and improving New York squad.
At home Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Tatis and others should just be too good. Jimenze has been good but he should not be able to dominate this lineup because when the Mets get rolling, which they have been of late, they are able to hit any pitcher in the world.
I do not expect a gem from Pedro because let's face it the guy does top out at about 89 these days but he knows how to pitch as he is as smart as they come when it comes to pitching. In the end the Mets' hurler will give us enough and the team will continue to play solid ball and win this game.
SPORTS GAMBLING HOTLINE
All systems go on the NY Mets these days, as the Metropolitans have won their last 7, and 8 of 9 as they hit the field today against the struggling Rockies.
Colorado has lost their last pair, and 4 of their last 6, and they are just 14-34 overall on the road this season. Over their last 2 games, the Rockies have been held to just 2 runs, and it is likely they will be held in check once again today, as Pedro Martinez just turned in a nice effort against Philly to pick up his third win of the season.
Ubaldo Jiminez is just 1-6 on the road this year with an ERA near 6.
The Mets are "feeling it" these days, while the Rocks continue to struggle on the road.
Play on New York.
4♦ NY MET