ASA
Florida (Olsen) (2 Units) over Philadelphia (Blanton)
The Marlins closed the first half with wins in six of the final eight games and Florida needs to pick up the pace in this critical series to stay with the Phillies and the surging Mets. Philadelphia recently acquired Joe Blanton to fill a spot in the rotation but his results in Oakland do not offer much promise. Despite pitching in one of the best pitcher?s parks in baseball Blanton owns a 4.96 ERA with a horrible record despite playing on a competitive team. Blanton was also hit hard in interleague play against every team except for the Phillies. Blanton has allowed six or more earned runs in four of his past eight starts and moving to a home run friendly ballpark does not look like a recipe for success for Blanton. His first start will be in the spacious filed in Miami which resembles the Oakland Coliseum where Blanton struggled. Scott Olsen has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts and in home games he owns a 2.96 ERA. The Marlins are 7-4 in his home starts and opponents are hitting just .216 against him in those games. The Phillies are hitting just .222 in the last ten games against left-handed pitchers and Philadelphia is not playing like a first place team with an 11-16 record in the last 27 games. NELLY?s rates picks 1-3 units, this selection is rated 2-units. Thanks for your purchase and best of luck.
HOUSTON ASTROS (Rodriguez)+115 ( 3 units)
Ron Raymond
5* MLB BEST BET WINNER
Washington / Atlanta Under 8.0
5* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Montreal / Roughriders Under 50.5
Matty O'Shea Triple Dime AL Value Play O' the Month.
Triple-Dime BOS -1.5 (+130) ANA
The stats simply don't lie when Boston ace Josh Beckett is on the mound - when he wins, he wins big. The Red Sox are averaging 9.49 runs per game in Beckett's nine wins this season, and his last eight wins have all been decided by at least two runs. In fact, the Sox have cashed the runline in wins with Beckett on the mound an amazing 34 out of 37 times dating back to 2006 (92%). Meanwhile, LA's Joe Saunders was a great story in the first half of the season in posting his career-high win total of 12. However, Boston is hitting .290 against lefties on the road this season and .314 in day games. This is a very big spot for the Red Sox after the Rays jumped ahead of them again in the AL East standings, and the Angels have now won three of the four meetings with them this season. I'm simply banking on the defending World Series champs to bounce back big behind Beckett here, which is why I'm betting them on the runline as my Triple Dime AL Value Play O' the Month.
BIG AL's NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE WEEK
MARLINS UNDER
LT Profits
San Diego Padres +135
Randy Wolf of the San Diego Padres and Todd Wellemeyer of the St. Louis Cardinals have been equally bad as of late, but that automatically gives value to the underdog Padres at this generous price.
After all, Wellemeyer has a 7.16 ERA and a brutal 1.71 WHIP in his last three starts, which does not exactly inspire confidence in a rather big favorite like this. In fact, Wellemeyer has now gone five consecutive starts without recording a Quality Start, so it appears he is revering to his normal level after he has an abnormally hot start to this season.
Now granted, Wolf has not been much better as of late, but at this price, it may be worth the risk that Wolf could turn in one of his occasional sparkling efforts. After all, he has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 11 starts, but that gets lost in the fact that he has allowed six earned runs or more in two of his last three outings. The good Wolf would be good enough to pull the upset here.
Finally, the Cardinals are batting a modest .256 at home vs. left-handed pitching this season as opposed to .281 vs. right-handers, which should also give the southpaw Wolf a leg up.
Padres +135
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros Under 8.5
Carlos Zambrano certainly earned his All-Star berth for the Chicago Cubs this season, while Wandy Rodriguez is a completely different pitcher at home for the Houston Astros, so runs should be hard to come by in Houston tonight.
Zambrano is 10-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 120.1 innings, and he has maintained his raging form, allowing two runs or less in three of his last four starts. He has also allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts in Houston, including two scoreless outings.
Now the reason why Rodriquez is so much better at home than on the road is a great mystery, as he has now had the most severe home/away splits in baseball for two years. The fact remains though that he has a 2.72 ERA and an excellent 1.07 WHIP in this ballpark this season, and the last time he faced the Cubs here, he allowed just one run on four hits in eight innings of a 2-1 Astros victory.
Finally, the Under is 57-36-3 in all Houston games this year, and we expect nothing different tonight with this pitching matchup.
Cubs/Astros Under 8.5
Stan Sharp
TAM (+105) vs TOR
Stan notes that Tampa Bay is 17-3 this year at home following a win by 2 runs or less. Tampa Bay is also 15-2 at home this year following a home game in which they scored 2 runs or less. Tampa Bay's Matt Garza is 5-1 at Home this Season. TAKE TAMPA BAY as STAN'S UNDERDOG BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
The King Maker
Florida Marlins -110 2-Units
Erin Rynning
Playmaker Twins
Regular Padres
Diamond Xchange Sports
10* - Cubs -140
9* - Mets -135
9* - Pirates Over 10-
8* - Red Sox Under 7-
Comp Play
Yankees Under
BOXER SPORTS
Cubs -120 ( 3* )
Mets -124 ( 3* )
Beat your Bookie
100 Atlanta
50 Seattle
50 Colorado
WUNDERDOG
Milwaukee at San Francisco
Pick: Milwaukee -145
Ben Sheets is healthy and so is his record as he stands at 10-3 with a 2.85 ERA. Sheets has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts for the Brewers this season, and already owns a complete-game shutout over the Giants this season. The Brewers have also been murder on LHP where they stand at 21-9 on the season, and this combo makes for a tough task on the Giants. The Giants aren't a very good team and are currently in free-fall mode as they have dropped seven of their last eight, including the opener here. The Brew Crew makes it two in a row.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Mets/Reds Over 10
2 Units - Blue Jays/Rays Under 7.5
Tony Karpinski
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Under
This is the late game of Saturday starting at 8:10pm Eastern time, but is a good matchup of division foes as the Dodgers send Billingsley, 9-8 with a 3.25 era, against Haren, 8-5 with a 2.72 era. Look for a low scoring pitching duel with not much offense in this game. I'll be shocked if they score more than 6 runs. Play on the UNDER
Larry Ness Las Vegas Insider (won 14 of L15 MLB reports / 8-1 run with MLB Insiders)
Las Vegas Insider Chi White Sox