Info Plays
3* on Minnesota Twins +113
Minnesota faces Fausto Carmona who is making his first start back from the disabled list tonight. The Twins send their Ace in Scott Baker to go pick up a win against the struggling Indians. Baker is 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA this season and 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA over his last 3 starts. Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CLEVELAND) - excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. This is a 76-43 ML System hitting 63.9% since 1997. Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. This is a 39-15 ML System hitting 72.2% since 1997. Bet the Twins behind Baker on the road.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on San Diego Padres +100
The Padres have Pittsburgh 's number. The Padres are a dominant 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in this matchup. The Bucs can't buy a win behind Van Benschoten. The Pirates are 0-8 in Van Benschoten's last 8 home starts, 0-7 in Van Benschoten's last 7 starts as a home underdog, 0-5 in Van Benschoten's last 5 starts vs. National League West, and 0-5 in Van Benschoten's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. This 25-0 Angle warrants a play on the Padres.
Dwayne Bryant
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Seattle Mariners +141
The Blue Jays may need to continue their high-scoring ways if they hope to win with David Purcey on the hill. The 6'5" lefty fared poorly in two emergency starts earlier this season. He walked seven while lasting 4 1/3 innings on April 18, then gave up eight runs over three innings in a 10-3 loss at Philadelphia on May 16.
Seattle's R.A. Dickey has been very solid since getting some advice from fellow knuckleballers Tim Wakefield and Charlie Hough. Since then, Dickey has allowed just eight runs in 32 1/3 innings (2.23 ERA). Dickey pitched well in his lone start vs. the Jays this season, allowing just two runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 2-0 loss.
Seattle has struggled offensively as of late, but the lefty Purcey could be just what the doctor ordered. Seattle is batting .285 and scoring 6.1 runs per game on the road vs. lefties this season.
Take Seattle/Dickey over Toronto/Purcey.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies RUN LINE -115
Mike Hampton will make his first major league start since August 2005 as the visiting Braves try to beat the Philadelphia Phillies for just the third time in 11 tries this season. Hampton, a former 22-game winner and two-time All-Star, was 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA for Atlanta in 2005, but he left a start against San Diego on Aug. 19 with tightness in his elbow. He had Tommy John surgery six weeks later, and while trying to rehab from that in 2007, tore a flexor tendon in his elbow, shutting him down for the rest of that year. He's had a number of other injuries trying to make his latest comeback - Hampton was scheduled to start April 3 when he strained a pectoral muscle just 10 minutes before he was going to throw the game's first pitch. He aggravated that on a minor league rehab assignment, then strained a groin in a start in Double-A on July 15.
Philadelphia's Cole Hamels has been nearly untouchable against the Braves this season. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA in two games, recording all but one out in a pair of Philadelphia wins. Hamels has been terrific at home, posting a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .255 OOBP at Citizens Bank Park. Hamels has also enjoyed 5.86 runs per game of support in his seven day starts this season. The Phillies bats should wake up this afternoon against what should be a rusty Hampton.
Take Phillies/Hamels over Atlanta/Hampton on the run line.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Minnesota Twins +113
Fausto Carmona makes his first start in two months tonight. Pitching coach Carl Willis told the Indians' official Web site that it will be crucial for Carmona not to get overly excited to be back on the mound. "It's all about him controlling his emotions and his effort level," Willis said. "Anybody who misses time and comes back after a while, it's hard to pull the reins back. I'm sure that's something we'll deal with (Saturday)." I think that emotion will work against Carmona, which will make it difficult for Cleveland to win this game against a solid pitcher like Scott Baker.
Baker is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last six starts. He also owns a 1.29 ERA in two outings against Cleveland this year. The Twins also own a solid edge in the bullpen. Minny's pen owns a 3.25 ERA, while Cleveland's pen sports a 5.00 ERA. The Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record and 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 7-8.5. The Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series, while the Indians are 3-12 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series.
Take Minnesota/Baker over Cleveland/Carmona.
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -165
Milwaukee has been a thorn in my side the last two days, but I guess that was bound to happen after the success we've had in Brewers' games prior to the last 48 hours. I expect Milwaukee to get right back to their winning ways tonight after having Houston snap their eight-game winning streak last night. That game was the letdown I spoke about in yesterday's analysis, but you can bet there will be no letdown by the Brewers tonight.
Brewers starter Dave Bush has held opponents to one run in four of his last five starts, going 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in that stretch. Bush struck out a career-high 13 batters while limiting Colorado to one run and three hits in eight innings of his last start - an 11-1 victory July 10. He retired 23 of the last 24 batters he faced while improving to 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .246 OOBP in nine home outings. Bush is 5-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 11 career games against Houston, nine of them starts. Bush also benefits from getting 5.9 runs per game of support in his starts at Miller Park. Milwaukee is 5-1 in Bush's home starts against Houston.
The Astros counter with Brandon Backe. Backe is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA in nine career games - six starts - against the Brewers. Backe's road numbers (4.59 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .359 OOBP) are also very mediocre. It doesn't help that he gets just 2.75 runs per game of support in his road starts. Houston has lost all three of Backe's starts at Miller Park.
Take Milwaukee/Bush over Houston/Backe.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants +109
This has the makings of a classic pitchers' duel. Two of the best pitchers in baseball square off as Arizona's Brandon Webb (13-4, 3.11 ERA) takes on the Giants' Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.79).
For his career, Webb is 11-5 with a 3.22 ERA against San Francisco. In his first full season in the majors, Lincecum is leading the league with 143 strikeouts while ranking in the top five in wins and ERA. Lincecum is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three career starts against Arizona.
I also like the fact that Webb is coming off three straight Quality Starts, while Lincecum was roughed up by a hot Brewers team in his last start. I can definitely see the Law of Averages coming into play here tonight.
Webb has gotten just 3.4 runs per game of support in his road starts, while Lincecum has received 5.7 runs per game of support in his starts at AT&T Park. With a pitching matchup that is about even, the Giants slight offensive edge makes them an attractive home dog.
The oddsmakers know this is going to be a pitchers' duel, as they have set the total to an ultra-low 6.5. It should be noted that the Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower, while the Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Take San Francisco/Lincecum over Arizona/Webb.
LT Profits
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers Under 9.0
The Under is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings between the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers, and tonight should be no different considering the pitching matchup.
Justin Verlander was considered a Cy Young candidate before this season started, but he got off to a terrible start, and he is still just 8-9 on the year with the Tigers going 9-12 as a team in all of his starts. However, he is now in raging form, having reeled off nine straight Quality Starts including allowing two earned runs or less in his last eight outings.
The Tigers are 7-1 in those starts including a perfect 6-0 in the last six efforts, and this streak began with a great outing vs. these White Sox on June 11. Verlander tossed a Complete Game four-hitter that day right here in this stadium, allowing only one run.
The White Sox counter with John Danks, who has a very nice 3.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 118.2 innings this year. Best of all, he has been at his best on the road, where he is 4-1 with a sparkling 1.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Danks has not faced the Tigers yet this year, but he did post a Quality Start the last time he faced them last season.
We look for both starting pitchers to be at their best tonight.
Pick: White Sox, Tigers Under 9
Minnesota Twins +110
Fausto Carmona make his return to the mound tonight when his Cleveland Indians host the Minnesota Twins, but we think he will have his hands full vs. Scott Baker here.
Baker has been on a roll, as he is developing into the stud pitcher that most scouts agreed he would be. He allowed one run and just two hits in eight innings in his last start vs. the normally potent Texas Rangers lineup, and that marked the ninth time in his last 10 starts that Baker allowed three runs or less. More importantly, he has allowed three runs or less in his last five outings vs. the Indians, including two starts this year where he allowed a grand total of two runs in 14 innings.
Now Carmona is making his first major league start since May 23, and truth be told, he seemed much more hittable before getting shelved this season than he was last year, when he garnered a few Cy Young votes. Yes, he still has a good 3.10 ERA, but his poor 1.59 WHIP in 58 innings suggests that he has been rather lucky.
The Twins are averaging an impressive 4.85 runs per game despite being near the bottom of the league in home runs, and we look for them to manage enough runs off of a possibly rusty Carmona here to gain the victory.
Pick: Twins +110
KELSO
High Rollers Club
15 Units Angels
Best Bets Club
5 Units Yankees
4 Units Tampa Bay
3 Units Tigers
Maddux Sports
3 units on Milwaukee -163
3 units on Arizona -111
3 units on Tampa Bay -154
Larry Ness
15* TV Game of the Week
Josh Becket had beaten the Yankees three times in '08, allowing three ERs in each outing. Beckett held the Yanks to one run last night over seven innings (his best outing this year vs New York) but was out-pitched by Joba Chamberlain (7 IP / 3 hits / 0 runs / 9 Ks) as the Yanks won 1-0. Boston must now regroup for an afternoon game at Fenway in which the Red Sox will face Andy Pettitte and a Yankee team which has now gone 7-0 since the break. Pettitte is 11-7 with a 3.86 ERA this year and comes in pitching extremely well. He had a terrible five-start stretch from April 25-May 15 in which he went 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA (team was 0-5). Doing the math, that makes him 11-3 with a 3.24 ERA over his other 16 starts this year and that includes a June 7 outing in which he allowed 10 ERs (it would be 2.55 without that one game). Pettitte's lifetime mark vs the Red Sox is excellent (15-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 30 starts) but he struggled against them in his lone start this year vs Boston (a 7-0 home loss on July 3), when he allowed six runs (five earned) and nine hits in 4.2 innings. Let's also note that he has allowed at least four ERs in four of his last six starts against Boston (going back to April 27 of last year). The ageless Tim Wakefield gets the call for Boston and Wakefield is once again doing yeoman's work for the Red Sox. He went 17-13 last year, getting a decision in all but two of his 32 starts in '07 (team went 19-13). He enters this game 6-7 with a 3.69 ERA but deserves a much better fate. He's pitched into the 7th inning in 10 consecutive starts, allowing more than three ERs just one time (allowed four) and one ER or less in seven outings. Despite all that, he's just 3-3 while the Red Sox are only 4-6. While the Yanks are red-hot, how can one go against Boston in this spot? The Yanks are just 24-23 on the road this year, while Boston is 16-6 vs lefties (9-2 at home). What's more, the Red Sox are 13-2 in day games at Fenway Park in '08, averaging 6.9 RPG!
TV Game of the Week 15* Bos Red Sox.
Weekend Wipeout Winner
The Tigers opened the season 0-7 and after June 6 were just 24-36. However, the team won 28 of its next 41 games and entered this weekend three-game series with the White Sox just 5 1/2 games back in the AL Central. Chicago looked vulnerable coming onto this series, with the pitching staff having posted a 6.61 ERA over its previous three series. Chicago's bullpen really struggled during that nine-game span, with a 7.06 ERA and a .305 opponents batting average. However, it was Detroit's bullpen that was the culprit on Friday. The Tigers led last night 4-1 heading into the 7th but let it slip away when Dye hit a two-run HR in the 9th to cap Chicago's 6-5 comeback. Can the Tigers bounce back? I believe so, despite the fact that they'll have to face John Danks. Danks has had a very good year for the White Sox in '08, going 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 20 starts (team is 12-8). One has to take notice of his 1.92 road ERA but one can also question whether Danks is really as good as his numbers. He was just 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA (team was 9-17 in his starts) in '07 (rookie season) and his last two starts here in '08 have been rather ugly.He allowed seven hits and four ERs (7.2 IP) in a 9-7 win at Texas right before the break and in his lone start since the break, lasted just four innings, allowing nine hits and six ERs in an 8-7 home loss to the Royals. That's 16 hits and 10 ERs over 11.2 innings (7.71 ERA). The lefty will be facing a Detroit team which was 28-15 vs lefties in '07 (averaged 5.9 RPG) and one that is 20-7 (5.1 RPG) against left-handed starters in '08. Expect the Tigers to get to Danks and with Verlander on the mound, Detroit is in good shape. Verlander was one of the AL's top starters the last two seasons, going 35-15 with a 3.64 ERA. The Tigers went 41-21 (plus-$1,653) in his 62 regular season starts in '06 and '07, making him one of MLB's top "money-makers" as well. However, that Justin Verlander was nowhere to be found at the beginning of the '08 season. He opened 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA over his first eight starts (team was 1-7) and even when he began turning things around, the team continued to lose when he was on the mound, falling to 2-11 in his first 13 starts of 2008. However, Verlander's struggles are long gone, as he's allowed two ERs or less in 11 of his last 13 starts. More importantly, the wins have returned since a June 11 start. Verlander beat the White Sox 5-1 that day, beginning a eight-start stretch in which he's gone 6-0 with a 2.30 ERA (team is 7-1), while holding opponents to a combined batting average of just .183!
Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Det Tigers.
20* NL Total of the Year (3-0 with 20* totals in '08!)
My 20* play is on Arz/SF Over at 9:05 ET. The D'backs and Giants meet tonight in San Francisco, as Brandon Webb (13-4, 3.11 ERA) faces off against Tim Linceum. Webb has already established himself as one of the NL's top pitchers (won Cy Young in '06), while Lincecum (11-3, 2.79 ERA)., in just his second year, is "knocking on the door" to be included among the NL's elite pitchers. The Giants own a team batting average of just .255 (ranks 22nd) and the D'backs are hitting only .250 (26th), so naturally the total for this game is low (opened 6 1/2). However, it's TOO low and here's why! Let's look at the average scores of these two teams. Arizona has played 50 road games, averaging 3.98 RPG and allowing 4.04 (that's 8.02 per). The Giants have played 52 home games, scoring just 3.85 RPG but allowing 5.12 (that's 8.97 per). Now of course we have two dominant pitchers here in Webb and Lincecum but they are not in top form. Webb opened 9-0 with a 2.56 ERA this season but is just 4-4 with a 3.81 ERA over his last 12 starts (team is 5-7). As for Lincecum, he may be getting a little arm weary. He never allowed more than three ERs in ANY of his first 13 starts this year, while allowing one ER or less in SEVEN of those 13 outings. However, beginning with a June 16 start vs the Tigers (7 IP / 6 hits / 4 ERs), he's allowed three ERs or more in FIVE of his seven starts, including four ERs or more, four times (4.40 ERA in that seven-game span). Now ERAs of 3.81 and 4.40 are not all that bad these days but remember, this total opened 6 1/2. There is NO margin for error. Arizona had 11 hits last night in scoring 10 runs and the Giants had 10 hits (nine off Haren) but only scored twice while leaving eight men on base. Despite their lack of offense and ML-worst 20-32 home mark, the Giants are 29-21-2 to the 'over' this year in home games. Chalk up another one tonight! NL Total of the Year 20* Arz/SF Over.
Tom Stryker's MLB Home Cookin' Blowout of the Week - 38-19 Run!
DETROIT with Verlander (-146) over Chicago
If Detroit is going to make a move in the American League Central standings, they can't blow games like they did last night. That heart-breaking loss makes this contest against the White Sox extremely important.
On the bump for the Tigers will be one of their hottest arms right-hander Justin Verlander. In his last six performances (all Detroit wins), Verlander has been touched for only 11 earned runs and 27 hits in 39.2 innings of work. That breaks down to a respectable 2.50 ERA! The Motor City has been kind to Justin too. With 78.0 frames in the bank, No. 35 has been nicked for only 32 earned runs and 62 hits. That adds up to a decent 3.69 ERA!
The Pale Hose will counter with young southpaw John Danks. If Mr. Danks throws like he did in his last trip to the mound, this best bet will be over early. At home against Kansas City on July 20th, Danks got ripped for six earned runs and nine hits in only 4.0 innings of work!
On a technical note, Chicago has struggled on foreign soil dropping 13 of its last 19 games and stands a woeful 4-11 in its last 15 priced as an underdog. Meanwhile, Jim Leyland's troops have devoured left-handers cashing 46 of their last 66 and have popped for wins in 36 of their last 53 priced as a favorite. Take Detroit with listed pitcher Verlander.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* MLB SATURDAY KNOCKOUT! *14-3, 82% Run!
I'm laying the price with the Tigers on Saturday. If you've been with me over the past four weeks, you know I have played Justin Verlander on several occasions. The Tigers have won each of his last six starts, and four straight at Comerica. The righthander actually started warming up on May 14...and has been as good as it gets for 13 straight starts. He's held those 13 opponents to 25 earned runs and 97 base runners in 87 2/3 innings. Verlander is averaging almost seven innings per start, and he has more strikeouts than hits allowed, 69-to-64! By the way, the above numbers add up to a 2.57 ERA & 1.11 WHIP. Verlander completely shut-down the ChiSox in a June 11 complete game win. And, Chicago is averaging just four runs per game in road night games against righthanders. Meanwhile, it's highly publicized, but worth noting again, that Detroit absolutely crushes southpaws. They'll face lefty John Danks, who was lit-up in his last start...his only one since the all-star break. That's worth noting because Danks, who owns a career 3.52 pre-all star ERA, is just 1-7 in 11 starts afterwards, posting a 7.59 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .326 BAA! The southpaw really wore down in the second half last season. Making matters worse for Danks, (or better for us), is that Detroit has rocked the young hurler in his three career starts against them. In fact, in his only outing at Comerica, Danks was knocked around for four earned runs and nine base runners in just 4 2/3 innings of action. I expect more of the same tonight. Two big runs continue...Verlander's dominance on the bump and Detroit's dominance at the plate against lefthanders. The Tigers are my 25* release on Saturday.
3G-Sports
ST LOUIS CARDINALS 117
OAKLAND ATHLETICS -191
ROBERT FERRINGO
7.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 New York Yankees at Boston
Note: This is our American League Total of the Year.
2-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-150) over Chicago White Sox
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore
2-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-120) over Baltimore
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 10.5 San Diego at Pittsburgh
1-Unit Play. Take San Diego (-110) over Pittsburgh
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+105) over Cleveland
1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (+120) over New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-1.5, +115) over Houston
Mike Rose AFL GOM
7* PHILADELPHIA -3½-105 VS. SAN JOSE
The ArenaBowl has finally arrived giving AFL bettors their last chance to pad their bankrolls for the upcoming 2008-09 NFL and NCAA football seasons. The 22nd installment of the AFL’s grand game pits the (11-5) Western Conference champion San Jose Sabercats against the (13-3) Eastern Division champion Philadelphia Soul. This will be just the fourth time these franchises have squared off against one another.
The defending ArenaBowl XXI Champion Sabercats are making their second consecutive ArenaBowl appearance, and fourth in seven seasons, after defeating the #6 Grand Rapids Rampage, 81-55, at the HP Pavilion in the American Conference Championship game two weeks ago. The 26-point victory saw the Sabercats easily cover the six-point spread, and the combined 136-points surpassed the 119-point closing ‘total’ with ease. San Jose covered each of its post-season games to get back to New Orleans making its AFL betting backers very happy, and they’ll look to become the first team since Tampa Bay back in 1996 to hoist the Jim Foster Trophy in back-to-back seasons. Overall, the American Conference champs went 13-5 SU and 8-8-2 ATS, but they enter the biggest game of the season on a 7-3-2 ATS run their L/12 overall games.
The Philadelphia Soul is making its first-ever ArenaBowl appearance after earning a league-best 13-3 record during the regular season and capturing its first Eastern Division title in the franchises five-year existence. The top-ranked Soul defeated the #4 Cleveland Gladiators, 70-35, in the National Conference Championship online betting game two weeks ago at the Wachovia Center. The 35-point victory saw the Soul easily cover the 6.5-point spread, and the combined 105-points stayed under the 118-point closing ‘total’. With many around the league questioning Philly’s placement in the National Conference Finals after a questionable call enabled them to get past the New York Dragons, the Soul let it be known they’re the best the conference had to offer after humiliating the Cleveland Gladiators. Overall, the National Conference champs stand 15-3 SU and 9-8-1 ATS coming into this game, but they’re a poor 2-6 ATS their L/8 when installed the favorite. That said; Head Coach Brett Munsey’s club has stepped up to the plate against winning competition going 6-2-1 ATS the L/9 times.
These clubs locked horns with one another way back in Week 7 when the Soul fought back from a 26-point deficit to defeat the Sabercats, 58-57, on a five-yard touchdown run by QB Matt D’Orazio with 10 seconds remaining in the game. The win kept Philadelphia’s perfect mark intact (7-0), while San Jose dropped to 3-4 after the crippling home defeat. The victory was the Soul’s first ever defeat of the Sabercats who won and covered against them back in 2004 and 2005.
It’s been more than a month since the Sabercats have left the comfy confines of their own arena where they only managed 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS marks as a visitor. Philadelphia won pretty much everywhere they played this season, and managed to go 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS on the road in some very hostile environments. The Soul played a much tougher schedule than that of their opponents, and I expect that to play a major role in determining the victor of this game. I pegged Philly to hoist the trophy midway through the regular season, and I’m sticking to my guns. Lay the points with Bon Jovi and Jaworski’s bunch as they proved to be the best the AFL had to offer all season long!!!
Winners Edge
Braves/Phillies Over 9 , 4 units ( total of week)
Stl Cardinals + 115 , 2 units
NY Yankees + 105 , 2 units
TB D-Rays RL even , 1 unit
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Cleveland Indians -110
2 Units - Padres/Pirates Over 10.5
Stephen Nover
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
Colorado is heating up, winning seven of its last eight games. But my prejudice against Jorge De La Rosa puts me on the Reds.
I consider De La Rosa one of the worst starters in the Majors. A 6.71 ERA is evidence of that. He has a ghastly 14.73 career ERA versus the Reds in seven appearances.
Reds starter Homer Bailey, once the team's top pitching prospect , has started slow. But Bailey has looked better in his last couple of starts after making adjustments in the minors. He's yielded five earned runs in 12 innings with just two walks during his past two big league starts.
Cincinnati's bullpen has quietly been effective with a 2.37 ERA in its last 25 games. Thursday's day off provided needed rest.
Keep in mind, too, that the Rockies have dropped 36 of their 51 away contests this season.