Ben Burns
Rays (RL) @ Royals (RL)
PICK: Royals (RL)
The Rays are heavily favored here, largely due to their superior overall record and due to the fact that it's Kazmir vs. Hochevar on the mound. However, the Rays' success has come in Florida and the same can be said for Kazmir. A closer look shows that the Royals home record (23-28) is very similar to the Rays' road record of 20-26. Additionally, Kazmir is 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the road while Hochevar is 4-3 with a 4.41 ERA at home. It's also worth noting that the Rays are 0-2 in Kazmir's two career road starts vs. the Royals, losing those games by a combined score of 19-9. Kazmir gave up nine runs (and eight walks!) in just nine innings in those two starts, for an ugly 9.00 ERA. Despite dropping a close one yesterday, the Royals have still won three of the last four series meetings here. Note that four of the last five meetings here have been decided by two runs or less, including a pair of one run games. In other words, this should be a much more evenly matched contest than the line is indicating. I believe that gives us solid value with the home underdog, particularly on the run-line, where we can get an extra +1.5 runs for a very attractive price. With the Royals an impressive 8-2 their last 10 games against southpaw starter, let's take a shot with KC +1.5 runs.
Dave Malinsky
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays 4*
When a team going bad suffers the kind of losses that the Mariners have in their last two games, both defeats coming in extra innings, it can leave them in a most fragile state. We believe that it is something that we can take advantage of here. Of course the bottom line is that there is not really anything there to begin with, which is how you get to be 38-64 overall and 18-32 on the road, but the current 0-6 slide may have them gutted in terms of their psyche for this one, especially in a quick night-to-day turnaround that will start at 10:07 AM on their body clocks.
That body clock issue is not just for the starting lineup, but also creates an issue for R.A. Dickey as well. While knuckle-ballers have a better chance to be successful on three days rest than conventional pitchers, a guy that does not have all that much experience as a Major League starter can be most vulnerable when forced into that role. But it gets magnified here - after throwing 105 pitches vs. Boston on Tuesday he is not really even at three full days, with this game beginning just 61 hours since he last threw a pitch. And note that he is not a pure knuckle-ball pitcher, having to resort to fastballs on many occasions in order to find the strike zone. That pitch will be his real problem this afternoon.
Some of the value we get here stems from the 0-1/11.05 that David Purcey shows in the pitching forms, but that is not who he is. the 6-5/235 left-hander was twice called up for starts because of Toronto injuries, and it led to a couple of rough outings for a talented prospect. But since that last Major League start on May 16th he has had a chance to establish his rhythm, and it has been a sparkling 2.69 at AAA this season, with an outstanding ratio of 121 strikeouts vs. only 97 hits allowed. Now he will be working on schedule, and having allowed just three runs over 20 innings of his last three starts, with 21 strikeouts vs. only one walk allowed, this can be considered his “real” debut, against a punchless opponent that will struggle in heir first look against him. And behind Purcey is a team that has won four straight to climb over .500, and will relish the chance to beat up on this class and move a step closer to playoff contention.
Larry Ness
Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers' home/away dichotomy these last two seasons ('06 and '07) has been quite dramatic. Milwaukee's two-year mark has them 99-63 (plus-$1,950) at home but a pathetic 59-103 (minus-$3,818) on the road! However, the Brewers own MLB's best road record since June 11, going 14-5. The team returned home to Miller Park last night, on a seven-game road winning streak but promptly lost to the "sad-sack" Astros, 3-1. Go figure? That being said, look for a "return to form" here for the Brewers and expect them to pick up a win tonight at Miller Park. I'm not sure any pitcher has followed this team's home and away trends any more closely than Dave Bush, who is tonight's starter. Bush went 12-11 in '06 and 12-10 in '07 and look at his home and away breakdowns in all games. The Brewers went 12-3 (3.23 ERA) in his home starts in '06 and 4-13 (5.38) in his road starts. Last year it was 8-7 (4.39) in his home starts and 6-10 (6.14) in his road starts. He enters this game 5-8 with a 4.39 ERA on the season but again, look at his home and away breakdowns. Once again he's had all sorts of trouble on the road (team is 1-7 and his ERA is 7.11) but been very good at home (team is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA). Bush comes in pitching very well, having gone 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA over his last five starts (team is 4-1), with three coming at home and two on the road. A closer look at his home numbers reveal that he opened the '08 season with two poor home outings but over his last seven starts, has allowed only nine ERs in 50 innings for a 1.62 ERA. Bush should have plenty of confidence heading into this game (his first start since the break), as he's 5-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 11 career appearances against Houston (nine starts).The last-place Astros (47-55) counter with Brandon Backe (6-10 with a 4.79 ERA), who like Bush, has done well at home while struggling on the road in his career. However, he's got a 5.03 home ERA in '08 (team is 5-4 in his starts) and while his road ERA is somewhat lower (4.59), he's still not winning away from home (team is 3-9 in his 12 road starts). Go with the Brewers in this one.
MR A's
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
The hot Angels have won eight of their last nine games and have beaten the struggling Orioles in 13 of the last 17 meetings, including five of the last seven in Baltimore.
Los Angeles' Jon Garland (8-6, 4.12 ERA) is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 5-2 with a 4.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Orioles.
Baltimore's Radhames Liz (4-2, 7.19 ERA) is 1-2 with a monster 11.57 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander will make his first career start versus Los Angeles.
Let's ride the the Angels again tonight. The Orioles have dropped five of their last 6 games at home, including Friday's, 6-5 defeat against the Angels at Oriole Park and have lost five straight against Los Angeles' right-hander Jon Garland. The LA Angels have won 16 of their last 23 games away from home, impressive 32-18 road record this season.
Los Angeles Angels -120
GINA
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has won nine of the last 10 meetings versus Washington and the last five at Dodger Stadium.
Washington will send Odalis Perez (3-7, 3.99) to the hill. The lefthander is 1-2 with a 5.38 ERA in his last three starts and is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers, but Perez hasn't faced them since 2001. Los Angeles counters with Derek Lowe (7-8, 3.97 ERA). The right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four career starts against the Nationals.
Go with the Dodgers at home against the limp Nationals. Washington is the worst team in baseball with a 38-65 season record and has lost 10 of their last 12 road games.
Los Angeles Dodgers -210
Wild Bill
Florida +220 (5 units)
Phils -1 1/2 -115 (5 units)
Padres +110 (5 units)
Brewers -175 (5 units)
Arizona -110 (5 units)
Over 9 1/2 Angels-Orioles (5 units)
Twins +110 (5 units)
Rays -165 (5 units)
Over 8 Tampa-KC (5 units)
Steve Merril
St Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets -127
Bob Balfe
Major League Baseball
Royals +140 over Rays
Savannah Sports
3 Units on Det Under 9.5
Doc's MLB Game of the Year (52-28 Run)
8 Unit Play Take Los Angeles over Baltimore
Ben Burns #1 July GAME OF THE MONTH 3-0 YTD
I'm laying the price with DETROIT
Joseph D'Amico
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Under
Houston has 5 straight UNDER's and Milwaukee has 1 UNDER. Over the last 10 games ,Houston has averaged just 3.2 RPG, Milaukee has averaged 4.9 in that time span. Right-hander Backe gets the start for Houston,he is 6-10 on the road with an ERA of 4.59.In his 12 road starts this season the team has 10 UNDER's and just 2 OVER's behind him.His last three starts,Backe is 1-1 with an ERA of just 2.16.Milwaukee right-hander Bush is on the mound today. he is 4-2 at home with an ERA of 2.49. In his last three starts ,he is 1-1 with a 2.14 ERA.In his only outing against the Astro's this year ,Backe is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA. In yesterday's matchup Houston won 4-1 .This has all the makings of an UNDER.
GREG SHAKER
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Play: Twins +105 2 Units
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Boston Redsox
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Boston Redsox
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Yankees