Matt Rivers
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Obviously the dominant Cy Young Barry Zito is not walking through that door as the lefty is a complete joke when compared with the great Jake Peavy but this San Diego team cannot be laying a price like this to anybody. Besides Adrian Gonzalez the Friars are a complete inept group offensively. This team has been dreadful and miserable all season long and despite probably being due for some wins in the near future and espcially against an awful San Fran. team I can't help but take back such a price against this San Diego offense. There is not much good that I can say at all about Bruce Bochy's new team. The Giants are a bunch of old slow veterans and fairly mediocre at the very best young guys. But they still have enough to muster a run or two whereas this San Diego team can get shut down by anybody at anytime at the drop of a hat. Zito certainly frightens me as the record alone attests to but this number is just too much in a ballpark where runs are at a premium and one swing of the bat can determine a win or a loss. Peavy may shove it straight up my butt here but it's still too high of a price to pass up a small play on.
Scott Delaney
3♦ MINNESOTA TWINS
These two faced one another last week in Cleveland, and neither recorded a decision. Tonight there will be no question which pitcher will prevail, as we side with the team that has won five of six and that is making a run at the AL Central-leading White Sox after winning its series with them the past several days. In come the struggling Indians, and since Jeremy Sowers has done nothing impressive on the road this season – he’s 1-4 with a 7.28 ERA – I suspect this will be a rough one for him in side the Homer Domer. I like our chances with Nick Blackburn, who pitched well enough to win against the Tribe five days ago, allowing one run and four hits in seven innings. The right-hander is 2-0 in three starts against Cleveland this season, as he’s allowed three earned runs in 20-1/3 innings. We take the home team in this one, as Minnesota is the clear choice in this AL Central showdown
Jeff Benton
4♦ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
This is strictly a play against L.A. starter Hiroki Kuroda, who is in the midst of a miserable slump. How miserable? He’s 0-2 with a 13.11 ERA in his last three starts, giving up 18 runs (17 earned) in 11 2/3 innings. That includes a disastrous outing at Arizona on July 18, when Kuroda lasted just two innings after giving up six runs and eight hits. Now, the Dodgers did bail him out in that contest, rallying for an 8-7 win in extra innings. However, the fact remains that Kuroda has now faced Arizona twice in his career and given up 10 runs and 17 hits in just 7 2/3 innings. As for the DBacks, they’re going with spot-starter Yusmeiro Petit, a right-hander who has made two starts this season, and he was terrific in both against two powerful offenses. He gave up one run on two hits in six innings against the Brewers and also held the Cubs to a run on three hits in five innings. Throw in the fact that Arizona has now won four in a row and seven of eight – all on the road – as well as 10 of its last 14 against the Dodgers, and I’ll take the plus price and continue to fade Kuroda.
Jake Timlin
CINCINNTI REDS
Despite losing to the hapless Nationals last night I say lets take a shot on the Red plus the money. After all given the fact that Washington has just one win over their last ten ballgames as they continue to be the worst team in all of baseball there is just no reason to back the Nationals ever. Especially at home where the Nationals have lost 19 of their last 27 and now turn to Bergman who is just 1-8 on the year with Washington just 2-13 in his 15 starts. Flat out even though the Reds are not much better they are still good enough to steal one tonight and should not be an underdog to Washington. Take the Reds plus the money.
Tony Weston
3♦ HOUSTON ASTROS
The Astros got over on the Mets last night to improve to 5-2 their last seven games and 4-1 their last five. The Mets, on the other hand, are now 2-4 their last six games and are 1-3 on this recent road trip. But the most important key to tonight’s game is New York starting pitcher Johan Santana. While Santana has been pretty strong this season with a 9-7 record and a 2.93 ERA, he has struggled a little on the road. He’s only 4-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 11 road starts and the Mets are only 6-5 in those starts. But over Santana’s last five road starts the Mets are only 1-4. Also, the Mets are 3-7 in Santana’s last 10 overall starts. Santana will get roughed up again and the Astros will get over on the Mets. Take Houston at home tonight.
LAS VEGAS SPORTS ADVISORS
St. Louis/J. Blanton +100 5*
Play of the Day
Milwaukee/C. Sabathia -178 4*
Boston/J. Lester -213 3*
Boston/J. Lester -1.5 -105 3*
FREE PICK
Alex Smart
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates(51-58) will send one of their most consistent hurlers (Paul Maholm,7-6, 3.39 ERA) to the hill today to face the Chicago Cubs(65-45). The Bucks southpaw,is 5-1 in his L/11 starts, and almost always gives his team a chance at victory. The Cubs will return fire with inconsistent veteran thrower Ted Lilly(10-6, 4.49 ERA) who has pitched poorly in two starts against Pittsburgh this year, allowing 17 hits in 9 2/3 innings of ugly work. Lilly has also had problems at home in Wrigley this season as is evident by recording a 5.34 ERA.
The Cubs have not played that well in front of the home town fans in recent efforts , garnering a 7-7 record in their L/14 here, and have now lost three straight meetings against the Pirates, including yesterdays 3-0 set back. Considering all the facts and stats and todays pitching matchup , it will be an easy decision to back the value priced underdog in this spot to pull off the upset.
Final notes & Key Trends:Mahom is 4-0 lifetime vs the Cubs. Cubs are 3-9 in Lillys last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record .
Play on the Pitsburgh Pirates
Big Al McMordie
Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona D-Backs
At 10:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are hoping that their participation in the three-way, deadline deal in which they sent two young players (Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris) to Pittsburgh in exchange for Boston Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez will take them to the next level and put them over the hump on their way to winning the NL West Division. If you've been following the Dodgers this season however, you may be of the opinion that this team will need about three Manny Ramirez's to make a serious impact in the postseason. Only three NL teams, the Giants, Padres, and Nationals have scored fewer runs than the Dodgers in 2008, and they are second-to-last in the league in home runs, with even the lowly Nats having more so far. It will be interesting to see how Manny does when instead of Ortiz, Lowell, and Youklis hitting around him, he has the likes of Jeff Kent, James Loney, and newly-acquired Casey Blake. The Diamondbacks may not have made many last-minute deals (other than acquiring Jon Rauch from the Nationals) but that doesn't mean they haven't been busy with their own moves. Arizona recently demoted Micah Owings to the Minors and that opens the door for 23-year-old righthander Yusmeiro Petit to get back into the rotation and Petit certainly deserves another shot as his stats as a reliever for this team have been very impressive. Arizona has had a lot of success against ITS division rival recently, with 10 wins in their last fourteen games against the Dodgers. Take Arizona.
PRO INFO SPORTS
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Prediction: OVER
Wrigley Field will be the site for Saturday's Game Two between the Cubs and Pirates as they continue their three-game weekend set. Pittsburgh captured game one as a huge road puppy, winning 3-0.
The Chicago bats fell silent after scoring 40 runs during their most recent five-game winning streak as they only managed five hits on Friday versus the Pirates. The Cubs who sit atop the NL with 580 runs scored on the season stranded eight and went 0-5 with runners in scoring position on Friday.
After the 3-0 loss Cubs manager Lou Piniella said "give their pitchers credit, they pitched a good ballgame and beat us." This bureau believes Cub fans won't have to worry about a similar performance from their team on Saturday. Lou will have them playing more like the NL Central-leading team that they are.
As far as wins go Saturday will not be any easier as they face the Pirates starter Paul Maholm (7-6, 3.79 ERA), who has yet to lose to the Cubs. He is 4-0 despite posting a 6.15 ERA in seven career outings against Chicago , and the Pirates have won six of those appearances. It's that extremely high ERA that helps with our selection on the "Over" in this contest, even though he gets the win Maholm allows the Cubs to plate runs.
The Cubs counter with Ted Lilly and his 10-6 record and 4.49 ERA on the year. In his last trip to the bump versus the Pirates he faced Maholm and was reached for four runs and 10 hits in six innings in that contest. Lilly allowed three runs, seven hits, and two homers in six innings Monday, but didn't receive a decision in a 6-4 win at Milwaukee . The left-hander is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in seven career appearances against Pittsburgh
Saturday's starters provide us with career ERA's of 6.15 and 5.40 respectively, when added to our technical support it gives us a solid play on the "Over" in Game Two.
On the technical front we see the Pirates are 13-3-3 Over their last 19 as a underdog of +150 or more, 6-1 Over as a road underdog, 38-14-4 Over their last 56 on the road, 41-16-3 Over their last 60 when installed as a road underdog, 36-17-6 Over their last 59 road games when facing a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better, 43-21-2 Over their last 66 road games facing a winning team, Maholm is 6-0 Over his last 6 as an underdog of +150 or more, 7-0 Over as a road underdog his last 7 and 13-5-1 Over his last 19 when starting game two of a series. The Cubs are 5-0 Over versus the NL Central, 4-0 Over when facing a left-handed starter, 11-5 Over their last 16 at home versus left-handed starters, Lilly is 6-0 Over his last 6 when starting with at least 4 days rest, 4-0 Over his last 4 home starts versus a losing team, 6-1 Over his last 7 starts overall, 9-2 Over his last 11 versus a NL Central opponent and 4-1 Over his last 5 when installed as a favorite.
We also know that Pittsburgh is 62-40 Over in all games this season, 34-13 Over on the road, 28-15 Over when facing a division opponent and 22-9 Over when playing a night game. Pittsburgh averages scoring 5.2 runs per game on the road and their bullpen has an ERA of 5.30 on the highway. The Cubs are 55-49 Over in all games this season, 5-2 Over their last 7 games overall and 25-17 Over when facing a division opponent. Chicago averages scoring 6.2 runs per game when playing at home and 6.2 runs per game when facing a left-handed starter.
Our Pitcher Power Index Ratings have Maholm allowing the Cubs to plate 6.7 runs while Lilly gets touched for 5.9 in Saturday's contest. With our Team Power Index Ratings showing a final score of Chicago 8 and Pittsburgh 6 we are recommending a play on the "Over" in Saturdays Game Two.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* PITTSBURGH / CHICAGO OVER
Chris Jordan
Baltimore +120 at SEATTLE
Neither of these teams has been anything special this season, and I don’t expect to see either one in the postseason. But, there are two things we can count on when speaking of the Orioles: they win against the Bombers and they dominate these Mariners. Baltimore, which is in last place in the AL East, will earn their eighth win in nine games against the Mariners today.
Only Texas, with eight victories, has more against the M’s, while Baltimore’s seven wins against them match its highest total against an opponent this year with the Yankees. The Orioles, who have won four of their last five, are averaging 7.3 runs in their last six games. On the flipside, the Mariners have lost 10 of 13, while their pitchers have a 7.34 ERA the past four games.
I know Felix the Cat is toeing the slab for Seattle, but Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie is 3-1 in his last six starts, holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of those outings. We list both though, and trust the bats to support the underdog O’s and Guthrie in this one tonight.
2♦ ORIOLES
DUNKEL
Detroit at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to continue to take advantage of Detroit's poor record indoors (1-6 in games played in a dome) as they go for their fourth straight over the Tigers. Tampa Bay is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120). Here are all of today's games.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 2
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 16.468; Cubs (Lilly) 15.252
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-185); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+175); N/A
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Sabathia) 15.130; Atlanta (Morton) 13.412
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-180); Over
Game 955-956: NY Mets at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.813; Houston (Oswalt) 16.060
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+135); Over
Game 957-958: Colorado at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Delossanto) 15.863; Florida (Nolasco) 15.168
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over
Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Fogg) 15.586; Washington (Bergmann) 14.078
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Under
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.868; St. Louis (Looper) 16.479
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under
Game 963-964: San Francisco at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.180; San Diego (Peavy) 15.262
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-205); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-205); Under
Game 965-966: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 17.118; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.687
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under
Game 967-968: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.366; NY Yankees (Mussina) 16.612
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Over
Game 969-970: Detroit at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Rogers) 15.052; Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 16.264
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under
Game 971-972: Oakland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 13.679; Boston (Lester) 15.069
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Under
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Byrd) 15.744; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.471
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Over
Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.950; Kansas City (Davies) 14.860
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-155); Under
Game 977-978: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burnett) 14.406; Texas (Feldman) 15.887
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Over
Game 979-980: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 16.048; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.825
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (57-52) at L.A. Dodgers (54-55)
The N.L. West’s top two teams square off for the third game of a four-game set, with the Diamondbacks trotting out Yusmeiro Petit (1-1, 2.55 ERA) to face Hiroki Kuroda (5-8, 4.40) and the Dodgers. Arizona posted a 2-1 win Friday night in Manny Ramirez’s debut for the Dodgers. Arizona is on a 7-1 run, all on the road, and is 9-2 in its last 11 outings, but the DBacks are in a 1-5 slide in Petit’s last six road starts.
Los Angeles was on a 5-1 run before dropping the first two games of this series, and the Dodgers are still 6-3 in their last nine home games, but they are on a 1-6 skid in their last seven against winning teams.
The Diamondbacks, who lead the Dodgers by three games in the N.L. West, are 10-4 in the last 14 clashes in this rivalry, winning seven of 10 contests this season.
Petit, who has primarily been a reliever this season, will make his third start of the year. In his last start, July 22 against the Cubs, he allowed one run on three hits in five innings of a 9-2 home victory.
Kuroda has gotten pounded in his last three outings, allowing 18 runs (17 earned) in a mere 11 2/3 innings, for a bloated 13.91 ERA. That stretch started with an 8-7 win at Arizona, but Kuroda allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits in just two innings of that July 18 game. On Monday against San Francisco, he got bashed for seven runs on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings in a 7-6 home loss.
Petit is 0-1 with a 1.17 ERA in five road appearances this season, though this will be his first road start, and he’s 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four career appearances against Los Angeles. Kuroda, meanwhile, is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in nine home starts this year, and he’s 0-1 with an inflated 8.22 ERA in two career starts against Arizona.
For Arizona, the over is on runs of 9-3 on the road, 13-5 overall and 4-0-1 with Johnson throwing at Dodger Stadium. On the flip side, L.A. sports under streaks of 8-1 overall, 17-5 against winning teams and 4-1 behind Kershaw at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE:ARIZONA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (69-40) at N.Y. Yankees (59-50)
The streaking Angels send Jered Weaver (9-8, 4.11 ERA) to the mound for the third game of a four-game series against the Yankees, who will give the ball to fellow right-hander Mike Mussina (13-7, 3.56).
In a pitchers’ duel Friday night, Ervin Santana threw eight scoreless innings, and Torii Hunter’s RBI single in the top of the ninth gave Los Angeles a 1-0 victory. The Angels are on a 7-1 tear, all on the highway, and are on further runs of 14-2 in their last 16 games and 16-3 against the A.L. East. They also continue to sport baseball’s best road record at 38-19.
New York has lost five of its last six games, but the Yankees are still 11-4 in their last 15 home games, 14-5 in their last 19 against the A.L. West and 22-8 in their last 30 Saturday contests.
The Angels have won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry dating to last season, and they are 7-3 in the last 10 clashes and 4-0 in their last four against Mussina at Yankee Stadium.
Los Angeles has won in three of Weaver’s last four starts, including the last two, with Weaver getting the decision Monday in a 7-5 win at Boston. Weaver allowed three runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings, seemingly having shaken off back troubles from a three-inning start in a 3-2 win over Cleveland on July 22.
Mussina had thrown at least six innings in 10 straight games before Monday’s start at home against Baltimore, in which he got tagged for six runs on eight hits in five innings of a 13-4 Orioles drubbing. In the four starts prior to that, he allowed just three earned runs in 26 innings (1.04 ERA).
Weaver is 5-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 11 road starts this year, and he’s 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against New York. Mussina is 8-6 with a 3.63 ERA in 15 home starts this year, and he’s 15-9 with a 3.71 ERA in 31 career starts against Los Angeles.
The over has cashed in five of the last six games in this rivalry and is 6-1 overall for New York (4-1 at home), but with Mussina throwing, the under is on runs of 6-1 overall, 7-1 at home and 7-2 against Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Vegas Experts
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
The Yankees have now lost 5 of their last six games and are slipping further behind AL East leader Tampa Bay. The Angels defeated them 12-6 Thursday night and a 1-0 shutout last night. Today the Yankees will hand the ball to Mike Mussina who has a 2-1 TSR and a 3.32 ERA in his last three starts. He will go up against Jered Weaver who hasn’t pitched particularly well on the road as he has a 5-6 TSR and a 4.52 ERA. Look for the Bronx Bombers to catch the Angels napping.
Play on: New York
Big Board Sports
#1 Milwaukee Brewers-We usually do not play the large chalk but we have this checked as a very strong play.
#2 Detroit Tigers- Rogers is a great dog in this spot. The Rays struggle with change of speed pitchers.
#3 Two team Parlay Milwaukee and Detroit
Nelly
San Francisco + over San Diego
Jake Peavy has produced very average numbers this season and San Diego is just 8-10 in his starts, including a losing 4-5 record in home games and a 3-5 in his last eight starts. Given how poorly the Padres have played this season it is tough to justify this type of favoritism. On the season San Diego is 24-33 at home and just 3-15 in the last 18 home games. The Giants are a respectable road team with a 25-29 record and the Giants have won six of the last eight meetings between these teams. Barry Zito has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last six starts and despite the horrible overall numbers he has pitched better of late. Zito has better numbers on the road this season and he will also be aided by the Petco Park pitching advantage. In the last ten games the Padres are hitting just .226 and the Giants have been a slightly better team all season long.