Tony Weston
Tonight, go with the Dallas Cowboys over the San Diego Chargers.
Consider first that the Chargers, like has become tradition, will be without star running back LaDainian Tomlinson for this preseason game and will also be without Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates. That puts the offensive burden on Philip Rivers, who is coming back from offseason knee surgery. Also consider that San Diego has only been a .500 team in the preseason over the last five seasons, having gone 8-8 ATS under Marty Schottenheimer and 2-2 ATS in Norv Turner's first season with the team last year.
Also consider that the Dallas Cowboys come into this game with a strong preseason record over the last few years. Going back to 2002, Dallas is 16-8 ATS and is 5-2 ATS as an underdog. They're installed right now as about a 3-point dog.
Take the points and go with the Cowboys on the road tonight.
3♦ COWBOYS
Matt Rivers
For Saturday let's go to the gridiron and back the Redskins at home.
As I often say and will repeat here, this is far from the lock of my life but all signs seem to be pointing towards the 'Skins and at what is a fairly cheap price I'll take my chances on Joe Gibbs' former team.
Jim Zorn has already gotten his feet weet with that Hall of Fame game win and cover over the Colts a few days back and the Washington players should be fine as well after 60 minutes of action against Indianapolis.
The Bills are not a bad team at all and should be somewhere at that 8-8 mark this season but Buffalo's talent level has not been and is still not exactly overwhelming and if not for the solid home field advantage which Rich Stadium provides in the cold and blustery winter this team might prove to be more of a six or seven win club.
The number opened up closer to a touchdown at about 5 1/2 and has now come down a few points closer to a field goal. I'll never complain about free points and line movement in my favor, even in a meaningless preseason contest.
Washington goes three deep at Quarterback as we learned the other day thanks to the semi emergence of former Hawaii star Colt Brennan as he shredded the Colts. Add in Jason Campbell and Todd Collins and the home 'Skins are just fine at the signal caller position. Also it can't hurt that stud running back Clinton Portis should see some action as should Jason Taylor.
I do not love laying points in preseason action but everything and I mean everything is going our way and in the end I would be surprised to see Washington not win this game so I'll munch on a little chalk here.
DUNKEL
Florida at NY Mets
The Marlins look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and build on their 17-9 road record when the total is listed from 9 to 9 1/2. Florida is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+110). Here are all of today's games.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 9
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.394; Arizona (Haren) 15.279
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Over
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.320; Cubs (Zambrano) 16.522
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-190); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-190); N/A
Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 16.037; Philadelphia (Myers) 14.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+180); Over
Game 907-908: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Redding) 14.993; Milwaukee (Sheets) 16.220
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-240); Over
Game 909-910: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Olsen) 16.177; NY Mets (Stokes) 14.960
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+110); Under
Game 911-912: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 13.931; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 13.986
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-135); Over
Game 913-914: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Maddux) 14.049; Colorado (Cook) 14.885
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-170); Under
Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.856; San Francisco (Correia) 15.017
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Over
Game 917-918: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Byrd) 14.599; Toronto (Halladay) 15.562
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-215); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-215); Over
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Giese) 15.905; LA Angels (Lackey) 16.750
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Over
Game 921-922: Boston at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.189; White Sox (Contreras) 15.853
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
Game 923-924: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Meyer) 13.447; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.443
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Under
Game 925-926: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 15.855; Baltimore (Cabrera) 14.937
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105); Under
Game 927-928: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.317; Kansas City (Greinke) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Over
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.247; Seattle (Rowland) 16.595
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Under
LAS VEGAS SPORTS ADVISORS
Minnesota/Francisco Liriano -130
Play of the Day
LA Angels/John Lackey -165
Milwaukee/Ben Sheets -1.5 -125
Milwaukee/Ben Sheets -250
Boston/Daisuke Matsuzaka -135
Toronto/Roy Halladay -230
FREE PICK
Jim Feist
CLE Indians and TOR Blue Jays
Take Under
Both offenses have disappointed all season, hurt by injuries and several players having bad years. The Indians started 4-0 under the total on this current road trip. It doesn't get any easier here against Toronto ace Roy Halladay, who is having another great season. And what a roll he's on -- a 1.96 ERA his last three starts. At least Cleveland righty Paul Byrd has finally found his stuff, at 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA his last three starts. Don't look for any runs this game, play the Indians/Blue Jays under the total!
Dave Cokin
DEN Broncos and HOU Texans
Take HOU Texans
It's been a rough camp so far for the Broncos. This team has some definite concerns at the skill positions heading into the season, and it looks to me like Mike Shanahan will need a couple of these pre-season contests to do some player evaluation more than anything else. I have to believe the Texans are ahead of Denver right now in terms of readiness, and I'll therefore look for the Houston side to emerge with the win and cover this evening.
KING CREOLE
I came across this WEEK ONE tendency in the NFL pre-season while skimming through some of the online forums. It is not something that I researched myself. But it IS worth noting. And since we ALL have the common goal of 'taking down the MAN', the more information that we can share with each other.... the better (or BETTOR!) it is for all of us.
In week one of the NFL "X" season, play ON any team that missed the Playoffs last year.... when they are taking on a team that WON at least one Playoff game last year. If you had played this situation each of the last two seasons, you would have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS.
Now, this shouldn't be your only reason to play ON these non-playoff teams. You must also factor in previous pre-season Systems, Trends, and Tendencies. And a sharp player will also address the Head Coach... the projected quarterback rotations... and the relative youth or experience of the two teams that are playing each other. At the very least, this Systems will PREVENT me from playing ON the Giants, Seahawks, Jaguars, Packers, and Patriots in GAME ONE.
So we'll take a possible look at the following "Play ON" teams in week one:
DETROIT LIONS over the ny giants
BALTIMORE RAVENS over the new england patriots
MINNESOTA VIKINGS over the seattle seahawks
CINCINNATI BENGALS over the green bay packers
ATLANTA FALCONS over the jacksonville jaguars
Will Cover
CAROLINA minus vs the Colts
Classic pre-season coaching mis-match in this contest from Charlotte. One coach cares about the outcome of pre-season games whereas the other couldn't care less. John Fox of the Panthers is a very solid 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS versus Tony Dungy who is just 21-30 SU and <.500 ATS in his NFL career during the pre-season. No Manning once again for the Colts who are a bit banged-up off their HOF Game loss to the Redskins last Sunday. Play on CAROLINA!
Drew Gordon
Texas -105 at BALTIMORE
Rangers get just what the doctor ordered to get their suddenly slumping offense going, as they match up against Daniel Cabrera and the Orioles Saturday night.
Texas has lost 3 straight, and uncharacteristically its been the offense that's to blame. Look for things to turn around quickly, as the Rangers pound Cabrera, just like they have all 3 times they've faced him, going 0-3 with a 7.63 ERA in those starts! In fact, Cabrera has gotten crushed over his last two home starts, allowing 13 runs on 16 hits over 10 innings, walking 7 in the process, against the Tigers and Jays respectively!
Now, I'll freely admit the Rangers Vincent Padilla got lit up by this Orioles club the last time he faced them, and is just 1-4 with 8.51 ERA in 5 career starts against them. However, before you go jumping ship, remember two things: A. The Rangers are 13-3 in Padilla's last 16 road starts! And B. You know damn well he'll be looking to redeem himself tonight, which is more than Cabrera can say after getting rocked in 3 of his last 4 starts!
Finally, we'll look at the offenses, which both excel against rigthies, but there's no question you give the edge to the high-powered Rangers offense, averaging 5.8 runs per game against righties away. Not only that, but they get Ian Kinsler back after a day-off tonight, and hopefully the time off will get him going again. In the end, the Rangers are looking to snap out of their funk, and a match up against the struggling Daniel Cabera couldn't have come at a better time!
Take Texas behind Padilla over Baltimore and Cabrera in this MLB match up.
3♦ TEXAS
Lenny Del Genio
20* NL Dog of the Month **78% GOM Run**
The Astros simply have the Reds number. That was evident following last night's 9-5 victory in 10 innings. Houston is now 6-1 vs. their division rivals this year and even more impressive is how they dominate them in Cincinnati, having taken 14 of 19, including all four meetings this year. Now we have the number we want as the Astros are still somehow the underdog here despite what we just mentioned. Cincy is mired in a horrible slump right now as heading into this series they were barely scoring over three runs per game over the previous week or so while starters had a collective ERA of over 8.00. With the two losses to start this series, the Reds have now dropped 12 of their last 14 overall. Houston, meanwhile, has won 9 of 12. We like their chances again tonight behind Brian Moehler, the only pitcher to beat the Cubs in the previous series and he did it against Ryan Dempster no less. Moehler has been more than decent in his 15 starts this season, racking up a 3.98 ERA, and the start against the Cubs saw him throw five shutout innings. He used to struggle against the Reds, but that was years ago. In his lone start against them this year, he was just one out short of a compelete game 6-2 win. Expect a strong performance tonight, as he is 12-0 Under in nighttime starts. Cincinnati has lost nine straight vs. right-handed starters, having been outscored 64-24 in those games. Ouch! The Reds staff ranks next to last in the NL in ERA (5.36) and tonight's starter Bronson Arroyo will have to contend with the hot-hitting Carlos Lee (.390, 13 HR and 47 RBI since 6/20). Arroyo has already been shelled by Houston twice this year and has a team start record of 10-18 vs. sub-.500 competition. Houston is our 20* NL Underdog of the Month.
Matty O'Shea
NFL Side Single-Dime Bet
MIA -2.0 vs TAM
RunLine Double-Dime Bet
COL -1.5 (+120) vs SD
Nelly
Kansas City + over Minnesota
Francisco Liriano delivered a highly impressive debut back from an extended AAA stint with six shutout innings for a Minnesota win. Liriano labored considerably in the outing however with three walks and a high pitch count as was bailed out by the defense with key outs and double plays. Although Liriano looks like he can help the Twins down the stretch he is not likely to post the dominant numbers that were delivered in 2006. The Twins had lost six consecutive Liriano starts and he now must pitch on the road where his season ERA is still 16.88. The Minnesota bullpen has really struggled away from home and Liriano will be under a close watch in tonight’s game. Seven of Zack Greinke’s last ten starts have been very good and he continues to be a key part of the Royals success this season. At home Greinke owns a 2.93 ERA and Kansas City is 7-2 behind him in home games. Minnesota is just 25-30 on the road this season and the Royals have hit left-handers well this year, including a .335 team average in the past ten games.
Mr A
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have won five of their last 6 games at home and four of its last five versus the St. Louis Cardinals in Chicago, including Friday's 11th inning, 3-2 victory in the opener at Wrigley.
St. Louis' Todd Wellemeyer (8-4, 4.01), is 0-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts and one relief appearance against the Cubs.
Chicago's Carlos Zambrano (12-4, 2.76 ERA), is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts, 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 starts at home. The right-hander is 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA in 19 starts and one relief appearance against the Cardinals.
Take the Cubs in the Windy City with veteran Carlos Zambrano at the helm. Chicago has won ten of Zambrano’s last 11 starts versus St. Louis and the last five at Wrigley Field.
Chicago Cubs -200
Chris Jordan
St. Louis at CHICAGO
Big win yesterday in extra innings for the Cubs, and with the Big Z taking the hill for them today, it’s going to be a coming-out party for Chicago’s lineup today. The team has won 15 of Zambrano’s 22 starts this year, including all three of his last starts – two of them at Wrigley Field.
And ready for this, his last four stats against the Redbirds – including the Fourth of July this season – he’s 4-0 in St. Louis. He’s tossed 27 innings and given up a meager four earned runs. Now he gets a crack at arguably the team’s biggest rival in the Central division inside Wrigley Field?
Overall, the Cubs are 10-1 in the right-hander’s last 11 starts against St. Louis – 5-0 when he faces it at home. On the flipside, the Cardinals are now 2-7 in Todd Wellemeyer’s last nine starts and 0-4 in his last four against intra-divisional foes. Talk about a blowout in the making, honestly, you should feel lucky this is being given as a comp play as this is as easy as they come.
4♦ CUBS RUN LINE
Atslocks.com
5 UNITS Panthers -4
5 UNITS Jaguars/Falcons Under 34
Free play Bucs +2