Bob Balfe
Redskins -3.5 over Bills
The Bills open their preseason with a brand new offensive system. This will be a huge learning process from an already bad offense. The Redskins looked in mid season form last week and their quarterbacks looked excellent against the Colts. The Redskins could take advantage of this 5 game preseason and endup being the most prepared team heading into the season. Look for the Skins to win this game.
Jaguars -3.5 over Falcons
The Falcons come into the season with a new coach and a pretty weak team. The Jaguars are once again going to be playoff contenders this season and coach Jack Del Rio is going to be playing his starters longer than usual tonight. The Jaguars need to start winning early and often so they can compete with the Colts in their division. The talent is lopsided in this contest. Take the Jags.
Cowboys +3 over Chargers
San Diego head coach Norv Turner does not care about winning in the preseason and will rest a lot of starters tonight. Wade Phillips does care about winning in the preseason and the fact that he is coming back to San Diego where he used to be a defensive coordinator pretty much gives away he will be playing to win. Look for Dallas to win and cover.
Major League Baseball
Indians +200 over Bluejays
Savannah Sports
2 Units Houston +116
Teddy Covers
4* Carolina Panthers -4
JB Sports
5* Washington Redskins -3.5
3* San Diego Chargers -3
Players of America
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -155.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
A sheer pathetic, miserable, lousy way to lose a big play last night. Mental mistakes, base running errors, fielding errors, runners stranded, even faulty umpire calls (Phillips called for interference) really stuck it to us from the 6th inning on. If it wasn't the above it was .201 hitters or less making a difference in the game for the Stro's...something that shouldn't pan out like it did. The Reds appeared to be the correct side the entire way and completely fell apart in the late game. We loved this match up and would make this play again, however, we realize that there is a reason those guys are in the bottom of the standings each day the newspaper comes out. There, we needed to vent. We'll accept yesterday's big loss and chalk it up as a lesson learned. In any sense, stick with us. Do not lose faith and do not give in. Trust, focus and discipline will lead us to where we want to be by the season's end. As we've preached...we've built a large enough bank roll this season to take risks like last night. No one likes losing but it comes with the sport. Enough of yesterday's talk, it is now time to move on to the weekend card. Here are our thoughts and releases for Saturday, and we're coming at this one with a full head of steam...
OK, here is a mistake from Vegas. This one comes with an 8:10PM EST first pitch, live from Arizona. The Diamondbacks are set to host yet another game with the Braves, and this line is flat out off. Just because the Braves have handed it to Arizona twice already in this series, odds makers think their on to something with this "Braves hotstreak" or something. No, no, no. This line is strong in the favor of Arizona, and yes it is heavy, but there is no reason in hell this shouldn't be -200 or more. The Braves have quietly taken both games of this series IN Arizona. As the worst road team in the majors, do not plan on any kind of sweep. The Backs were embarassed last night in front of a home crowd and redemption is on the mind of every single one of these guys. Firstly, let's get this line straight. it currently ranges from -155 all the way up to -170. If you do a little research you'll see where the -155 is located and it is at a pretty popular sportsbook (which we are not allowed to list). If you need more information on the line with this one, drop us an email.
Let us say if it weren't for last night's loss, this would more than likely be another 5* play right here. Arizona comes in two games above the even mark, with two straight losses to this club. The very highly touted Danny Haren is the scheduled starter for AZ. Dan's numbers are among the best at 12-5 overall, with a WHIP of 0.98 and a ERA of 2.75. He's won his last three outings in convincing fashion for Arizona too. Both of these teams are 5-5 in their last 10 total games.
The Braves are putting their current, arguable ace on the rubber tonight, Jair Jurrjens. Jair comes in at a solid 10-7 overall on the year with a ERA of 3.12. He's probably the best on this team, but that isn't saying all that much. The Braves have stooped way below expectations this year and the unscheduled return of all-star Chipper Jones will surely but a damper in the line up. Chipper remains sidelined for tonight's action with a left strained hamstring and Matt Diaz is also on the 15 day DL with a left knee strain. Atlanta might weather the storm these first few innings tonight, but the bullpen could likely be chaotic. They've dug deep in there lately and in ATL's last three games the bullpen has a combined ERA of almost 6.00, which is not good.
Guys, Arizona is a better team with more heart, talent and class than Atlanta. This Braves joyride of TWO GAMES comes to an end right here tonight. Expect a rowdy crowd out there tonight in Chase Field with a lot of energy flowing. We're laying the juice for a 3* wager on Haren and the Backs tonight, so get on it and let's cash this bad boy.
TREND OF THE GAME:
- The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games following two losses.
Arizona 6, Atlanta 2
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
The Play: Florida Marlins +115.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Next, we're heading to New York where the Mets host the Marlins at 7:10PM EST. This is strictly a value bet here, a great spot. Florida has been playing some solid baseball like going into Philly and all of that good stuff. The Mets got the win against these guys last night, but the pitching match up here clearly favors the road team.
The Fish are putting lefty Scott Olsen on the mound. Scott comes in at just 6-6 overall on the season, with a WHIP of 1.28 and an ERA of 3.87. He's got some fire power behind him offensively and we firmly believe this Florida team has the weapons neccessary to make a push late in the post season. The Marlins come in winners of five of their last ten, the Mets four of their last six. Florida's bullpen has been stellar this season. In 320 innings pitched, the pen has a combined WHIP of 1.29 and an ERA of just about 3.00. Those are some pretty solid figures.
On the other sideline, the Mets are putting right hander Brian Stokes on the mound. Brian has yet to pitch a game for New York so his stat line is pretty dull. If you've done any research on this guy, you know he isn't some big time stud. He's notorious for giving up a lot of long balls and his control and command is average at best. He's got some sticks in the line up that can help...but at the same time this squad is plaqued with injuries. Right fielder Ryan Church, second baseman Luis Castillo, left fielder Trot Nixon, Moises Alou and more are all listed as OUT for tonights match up...and those are some big time names.
Florida's under dog status here is worthy of a play. The Met's seem to play at their competition's level which is NOT a good thing in the Major Leagues. We'll lay 10 units on the Fish as they take care of business in New York tonight.
TREND OF THE GAME:
- The Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 Saturday games.
Florida 7, New York 3
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Play: Texas Rangers +110.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
For our next one we're heading to Camden Yards will the Orioles will host the visiting Texas Rangers. The O's stole the show last night in a win over Texas but tonight's starters present an interesting match up for Ranger backers. Texas comes in three games over the even mark at 60-57 while Baltimore comes in four games under (55-59).
The Rangers are putting a guy on the mound tonight that isn't getting much fame but is silently pitching his way to something big. Right hander Vicente Padilla is the starter. Padilla comes in at 12-5 overall for the Rangers. He is 1-0 in his last three starts. We all know the scoring ability of Texas. They are the league's highest scoring ball club and they can make things get out of hand VERY quickly if opponents aren't careful. Milton Bradley hasn't started the last four games for Texas as he is rebounding from that quad problem, however, he has been capable of pinch hitting and don't think for a second that will change tonight. Besides Bradley, Texas has no further injuries in the field.
Daniel Cabrera starts throwing the balls and strikes for Baltimore. Cabrera is hit or miss, and lately he has been a huge miss. He is even at 7-7 on the year so far with a WHIP of 1.49 and an ERA rising towards 5.00. Daniel is 1-2 his last three times out with an ERA of 8.00. Yes, an ERA of 8.00. Baltimore has accumulated an average ERA of 7.01 in their last three games and 5.09 in their last ten. Let's just say teams love to hit them and that isn't good against the Rangers.
Stats and trends do the justice here, but as long time followers of this league...we're confident in placing some money on the Rangers at an underdog price Saturday night. A 1* rating along with 10 units on the visiting Tejas Rangers. Book it.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Rangers are 13-2 in Padilla's last 15 road starts.
- The Oriole's are 5-12 in their last 17 games following a win.
Texas 9, Baltimore 4
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
The Play: Detroit Tigers +110.0
Play Description: Run Line (-1.5)
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Last but not least, we're going to Comerica Park where the Tigers are trying to bounce back from a lost to an atrocious Oakland Athletics team. Oakland is on a pathetic run. Any followers or fans know this. Detroit, well, their trying to get themselves into the chase with Minnesota and Chicago. Whether it will happen or not, who knows. Detroit is a large favorite here but we want to lay a run and a half and grab some value with this explosive offense on the run line.
Armando Galarraga is set to start for the Tigs. He comes in at 9-4 overall with an ERA of just 3.23, and a WHIP of 1.12. He's won his last three outings and has looked absolutely stellar. His last time out he completely shut down that powerful line up of the White Sox in Chicago. His ERA is an impressive 2.23 in his last three games and his WHIP stands at 0.77. Detroit has something to prove here. Something big. Losing two straight to this Oakland team will only prove that they belong where they are at.
Oakland is putting lefty Dan Meyer on the mound. Dan is 0-0 in 5 innings pitched and hasn't given up a run in his time with Oakland. Enough said.
The A's...come on, guys. Detroit shall have no problem putting a beating on these scrubs from out west. A night game, at home like this sets the stage for a blow out. Oakland might get a few here and there, but covering a run line spread should be a cake walk for Detroit. They come in healthy with no injuries and should be ready to go. The A's have won every game against the Tigers this year, so it takes some 'you know what' to bet against these guys, and on Detroit...but we're prepared. We're laying the 1.5 runs for +110 on Detroit at CoPa tonight. 10 units.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Athletics are 3-13 in their last 16 games on grass.
- The Athletics are 5-18 in their last 23 road games.
- The Athletics are 6-20 in their last 26 overall.
Detroit 6, Oakland 1
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
The Play: Under 9.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
We're going to keep this one simple, but the game at hand is between the Padres and the Rockies. The minute you see Padres you should know this will be a total play because it isn't often we'll place our hard earned money on this team. They struggle on both sides of the ball and tonight their playing a team that thinks they have a chance to make something happen.
The Padres are set to come into Coors Field tonight and they'll be facing right hander Aaron Cook. Aaron comes in at 14-7 on the year and this kid can pitch. He has kept games under the quoted total 12 times already this season and in his last three outings he is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.82. On the other side, the veteran Greg Maddux gets the start for the Pads. Greg too has kept games under the total in double digits already at ten. In these teams last 16 games combined, the number has stayed lower than Vegas' total ten times. Despite Coors Field favoring hitters, this one stays low.
Simple enough, this should end up being a 3-2, 2-1 type ball game. This is why we're going to put 10 units on the UNDER in Colorado tonight, so there it is.
TREND OF THE GAME:
- The UNDER is 8-2-1 the last 11 times these two teams have met.
Colorado 3, San Diego 1
NSA
20* Jacksonville -3.5
10* Tampa Bay +3
10* Washington -3.5
10* Boston -135
10* Tampa Bay -140
10* Dodgers -145
Nick Parsons
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts suffered a loss in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday, August 3rd. However, look for that to give them an edge heading into the true Week 1 of the Preseason. With the Colts having an extra week this preseason, by virtue of playing in the Hall of Fame Game, they did not play their personnel versus the Redskins the way they will this week against the Panthers. Note that the Indianapolis was truly a bad beat for their backers on Sunday as they outgained Washington by 55 yards and they also had 24 first downs compared to just 20 for the Redskins. So, how did they lose by two touchdowns despite these solid numbers It had a lot do with an interception run back for a touchdown late in the game. That was the key turnover in the game. However, it was also simply a case of laying down a bit too early. Up 16-9 in the third quarter and seemingly in control of at least the spread victory (Indianapolis was +4.5 in most shops), the Colts somehow saw things quickly become unraveled. Even though this was just a Preseason game it was still the type of effort that will have Coach Dungy's troops a little hungrier this week. Keep in mind that Indianapolis saw Jim Sorgi complete 7 of 10 passes but he was an early exit from the game since the Colts were playing the first of five preseason games this year. Against the Panthers, who have yet to compete in a true game setting since last regular season, the Colts will have a physical edge as well as a mental edge. Couple that with the fact that Indianapolis is getting some decent points here and this certainly is a good spot for the dangerous dog! Note that the Colts have a well-deserved reputation recently of being a poor preseason performer but there are certain weeks where they perform better than others. For instance, coming into this season, the Colts were 5-2 ATS their last seven in Week One of the preseason. Of course, getting an extra preseason game in Week One this season means that the Colts are even more prepared for this game and, after letting one get away from them last week, Indianapolis will close the deal at Carolina this week. Grab the points but look for the outright upset for Indy! Note that the Panthers are just 2-7 in their last 9 as a favorite in the Preseason and we look for some sloppiness from Carolina in their first game.
Anthony Capone
Astros /Reds
Play : 3 * Astros +125
Brian Moehler gets the call today for the Astros on Satuday at the Great American Ballpark .The Reds are the Favorite in this one for reason that certainly escape me . Winners of only 2 of their last 11 Games and sinking fast the Reds send ASrroyo to the mound to try to right the ship .As far as this series the Reds have only won in their last 7 timees facing the Astros .Moehler beat the Reds less than 10 days ago by a (6-2) count .Moehler has had a very nice season so far going (7-4) .As far as Arroyo his season mark is (10-8) . Both have pitched reasonably well over their last 3 , but the team cleary on a Roll here hails from Texas .The Astros have gone (7-3) their last 10 and their bullpen has stepped up Big Time with a 2.91 ERA over the last 21 Innings .Tonight it looks like Deja Vu all over again for the Reds and Arroyo and the value we are getting makes this play that much more attractive .The Astros continue their dominance over the Reds in this one .
Rangers /Orioles
Play : 3 * Rangers +110
Vincente Padilla takes the starting duties for the Rangers today and after the beating they suffered last night at the hands of the Orioles looks for a bit of payback.Padilla has been very sharp this season on the Road with 9 of his 12 victoriescoming away from home. Neither Padilla or Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera have been great lately with combined ERAs over 13.6 .Cabrera (7-7) on the season is (1-3) when he faces Texas and that includes a scarring (30-3) loss back in 07 ' .Both teams are (6-4) in their last 10 Games but the Rangers are the better offensive team by a long shot .It seems especially true when they are coming off a loss .Prior to the Yankee series after Texas previous 2 losses they followed each up with 8 and 9 run performances consecutively .Cabreras lost all 3 starts vs the Rangers going back to 2005 .Included among those losses was a (15-1) setback against Padilla .Tonight the Rangers get a bit of revenge and get the Win
Red Sox / White Sox
Play: 3 * Red Sox -125
Dice K takes the Hill for the Red Sox tonight and even tho they cost me and my clients last night I am coming right back with them tonight .As good as Matsuzaka is at Home he is completely dominating on the road .He is a whole different pitcher away from Fenway Park.When he travels he is (5-0) with a 2.20 ERA .In 45 Innings he has only surrendered 25 Hits , with only 2 Home Runs given up during that time .Contreras has been good this season ,but in his last 3 he has recorded no record and his ERA has skyrocketed to 8.62 .Tonight we get a bit of revenge with a Red Sox victory .
NFL
1 * Redskins -3.5
Kelso Sturgeon
High Rollers Club
10 units DevilRays
15 unit NFL Preseason Underdog GOY - Dallas
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Minnesota w/Liriano -120
100 DIME NFLX WINNER
Tampa Bay +2.5
Jim Hurley
NFL
2* Atlanta
2* Dallas
Wise Guy Insider Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK
TAMPA +2
DOC'S
7-unit AL GOY BOSTON -140
Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERFECT DIAMOND BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Contreas +125
Nite Owl Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: 2 units Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
We'll take the Bucs here, getting 3 points in a pre-season rivalry that has seen its share of tight games, and which has seen Bucs cover 5 of last 6, and win both times (in L10Y) as a dog vs Fish. And Gruden's 15-8-1 ATS pre-season record as Bucs coach L6Y also contributes to Bucs' cause here.While Bucs are just a .500 team(2-2-2 ATS) L2Y in NFL-X, they are 3-0 L3Y in their NFL-X openers, although two of those 3 openers were at home.
While we expect Fish and their new "brain trust" of Bill Parcells as GM and Tony Sparano (not Tony Soprano?) as HC would like nothing more than to start the season with a win, even one that "doesn't count," Fish were a miserable 1-15 LY, and they have a major re-building project, and those things don't get done overnight.
We are not confident enough with Bucs here to take them on money line to win SU, but we will gladly take them and the 3 point "cushion" for two units.
Mike Rose
3* Cleveland Indians