Frank Patron
Lock of a lifetime #10 IN A ROW
TWINS
Strike Point Sports
3 units Boston -135
3 units Texas +105
3 units Tampa Bay -140
Root
Chairman- Dolphins
Millionaire- Redskins
No Limit- Marlins
Insiders Circle- Orioles
Executive
400 Mets
250 Texans
EZWINNERS
2 STAR: (903) ST. LOUIS (+$166) over Chicago
(Listing Wellemeyer only) (Risking $200 to win $332)
2 STAR: (901) ATLANTA (+$142) over Arizona
(Listing Jurrjens only) (Risking $200 to win $284)
Seabass
50* LAD/SF Under
100* CINCY
300* MILW -1.5
Insider.....Toronto -1.5
Larry Ness
ANA (-160) vs NYY
The Angels beat the Yankees 10-5 last night and that shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as they have "had the Yanks number." In fact, the Angels are the only team to have a winning record against the Yankees during Torre's 12 seasons as manager, going 61-55. In recent years. The Angels have eliminated the Yankees from the playoffs in both 2002 and 2005 and have won the season series from New York in each of the last four years (lead it 3-2 in '08). With Joba Chamberlain on the disabled list with tendonitis in his rotator cuff, the Yankees recalled Ian Kennedy from Triple-A to pitch last night. He lasted just two innings, giving up nine hits and five ERs, as his mark fell to 0-4 with an 8.17 ERA in '08. This afternoon, the pitching-challenged Yanks will go with 31-year-old Dan Giese. Giese was with the Giants last year, making only eight relief appearances (0-2, 4.82 ERA). He's made 13 appearances for the Yanks in '08 (1-3, 2.51 ERA) but just two starts (on June 21 and 27). In those two games, he's allowed nine hits and six ERs over 10.2 innings (5.06 ERA), going 0-2. Giese will face the team with MLB's best record today, as the Angels are 72-43 on the season. The Angels were winning early this year while NOT hitting but now that the team's bats have come around (17 hits last night), they look like "the team to beat." The Angels were MLB's best home team last year (54-27) and after some early struggles in Anaheim, are now 34-22 at home. After 'killing' right-handers last year (75-47 overall, including 41-15 at home), the Angels got off to a slow start vs righties in '08 but enter this game a 'healthy' 50-35 vs right-handers, including an 8-3 mark in home day games. The Yanks will face John Lackey in this one and while he's 9-2 with a 3.10 ERA on the year (started late with an injury), there can be no denying he's struggled lately. Lackey owns a 6.05 ERA over his last six starts, including a start last Sunday in The Bronx, when he allowed four runs in six innings and left with a 5-4 lead before the Angels gave up 10 unearned runs. However, despite Lackey struggling in his last six starts with that 6.05 ERA, he's 3-1 during that span, with the Angels going 4-2. Yes, Lackey is only 4-7 with a 4.89 ERA against the Yankees in his career, including Lackey a 1-4 mark with a 6.75 ERA in six career home starts them. However, he's a quality pitcher, performing for MLB's best team and is up against a 31-year-old with almost no big league experience. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the LA Angels.
BOS (-135) vs CWS
The Red Sox took seven of eight games from the White Sox last year, including all four in Chicago, while outscoring them 46-7. In fact, the Red Sox had taken 15 of the last 20 games played at U.S. Cellular Field, since the start of the 2003 season. However, Chicago beat Boston 5-3 last night, as Jon Lester lost for the first time since May 25 (had been 7-0 in his previous 11 starts, with the team going 10-1). Tonight, the White Sox, who are at 38-17 home, will hope Jose Contreras is a "new man." The veteran right-hander has not pitched since July 13 and takes a 7-6 with a 4.60 ERA in 19 starts into the game (team is 11-8). However, in his seven starts prior to going on the DL with right elbow tendinitis, Contreras had allowed 63 hits and 36 ERs in just 37.2 innings, for an 8.60 ERA. While Boston has struggled on the road this year going 26-34 (just 19-29 vs right-handers), it must be noted that Contreras is only 3-4 with an 8.43 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox. Getting back to Boston's road woes, let's note that when Daisuke Matsuzaka (12-2, 3.04 ERA) takes the mound for Boston in a road game, the team's chances of winning greatly improves. Matsuzaka is 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA in eight road starts for Boston this year, with the Red Sox going 6-2. That's a .750 winning percentage, compared to the team's 20-32 (.385) mark with any other pitcher on the mound for Boston away from Fenway. The Red Sox are 15-4 this season with Matsuzaka on the hill and I 'love' him here going up against Contreras in his first start back from the DL. Las Vegas Insider on the Bos Red Sox.
Oddsmaker Error NFL-X
Miami Dolphins
Rocky Atkinson
Texas @ Baltimore
Play:1* Texas +105
Texas is 47-35 this year against right handed starters. Texas is scoring 6.0 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Padilla is 12-5 overall this year, 9-2 on the road and 1-0 his last 3 starts. Cabrera has an 8.00 ERA his last 3 starts.Cabrera is 1-6 with a 6.33 ERA overall vs Texas since 1997.We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Wunderdog
Florida at New York Mets
Pick: Florida +108
The Mets send a sort of sacrificial lamb to the mound when they wheel out Brian Stokes. Stokes was unimpressive last year for Tampa Bay where he pitched to a 7.07 ERA. He has allowed 121 hits in just 86 big-league innings as well as walking 34 hitters. That is just shy of two baserunners an inning. His AAA numbers this season aren't very impressive either with a 4.41 ERA. The Marlins will counter with Scott Olsen who has pitched to an ERA of just 3.87 on the season, allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. With a Mets' bullpen that has been in shambles recently and expected to be needed early here, you have to like the value on the Marlins.
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Pittsburgh Pirates +200
3 Units - Tennessee Titans -3
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -182
I like the Cubs to really roll over St. Louis in this series after taking the wind out of the Cardinals' sails with an extra innings win Friday. The Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 overall, 43-13 in their last 56 home games, and 9-0 in Zambrano's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Cubs are also 5-0 in Zambrano's last 5 home starts vs. the Cardinals and 10-1 in Zambrano's last 11 starts vs. the Cardinals period. Pound the Cubs.
Ben Burns
CIN (-135) vs HOU
The Reds have struggled of late and they lost a tough one in 10 innings yesterday. They've got Bronson Arroyo taking the mound at home today though, which has been a very profitable proposition the last couple of months.
These pitchers faced each other less than two weeks ago with Moehler outpitching Arroyo. That was at Houston though and Arroyo has really struggled on the road. Indeed, he's got a 7.47 ERA away from home. Note that the Reds are still 6-1 his last seven starts overall. This evening's game is at Cincinnati, where he's been much better, particularly recently. Arroyo returned home following the loss at Houston and promptly delivered a gem, allowing just four hits and one run through six innings. That 6-4 victory (vs. Milwaukee) brought the Reds to 4-0 his last four home starts, winning those games by a combined score of 23-10. Arroyo allowed three earned runs or less in each of those starts, giving up a total of just six runs through 28 innings. That's a 1.93 ERA! Looking back a bit further and we find that the Reds are an impressive 7-1 the last eight times that he started here. While he struggled vs. the Astros here back in the spring, Arroyo is pitching much better now and had previously allowed two earned runs or less in all three of his previous home starts against Houston, going seven complete innings in two of those games and six in the other.
As for Moehler, he followed up the win vs. Cincinnati by pitching well at Chicago, although he pitched only five innings, due to a rain delay. However, he doesn't have dominating 'stuff' and he had allowed 15 earned runs in just 21 1/3 innings in his previous four starts. That's a 6.33 ERA. In other words, the 7/29 game at Cincinnati notwithstanding, he hasn't pitched nearly as well as Arroyo in recent weeks. Moehler also got rocked the last time he pitched here at Cincinnati, giving up seven earned runs in five innings, en route to suffering a 9-1 loss. His previous start here also resulted in a loss, as he gave up four earned runs in five innings. Overall, he's 1-4 with a 5.86 ERA for his career vs. the Reds. While neither team will be making the playoffs, playing in front of the home fans, I expect the revenge-minded Reds to be the 'hungrier' (more motivated) team. Look for them to bounce back and continue their winning ways with Arroyo on the mound here at home. *NL Central GOY
Winning Points
3* Wash -4
2* Miami -2
1* Jack -3.5
1* Dallas +3
1* StL/Tenn. over 33.5
BRANDON LANG
10 Dimes Jaguars
10 Dimes Bucs
10 Dimes Redskins
5 Dimes Rangers
5 Dimes Astros
LT Profits
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Under 8.0
Francisco Liriano looked liked his old self upon returning from the minor for the Minnesota Twins, while Zack Greinke has been very solid for the Kansas City Royals, so look for a low scoring game tonight similar to the 4-1 Twins win here last night.
Liriano was obviously not ready to pitch at the major league level early in the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, but he closely resembled the rookie that dominated the league two years ago in his first start back. Liriano tossed six scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and recording five strikeouts. He threw 96 pitches and reported no discomfort afterwards, certainly a positive sign.
Meanwhile, Greinke has allowed two runs or less in four of his last six starts including the last two in a row. He has been great at home this season, going 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in nine home starts, including a Quality Start in his only other start vs. these Twins.
Finally, the Under is 36-17-2 in the last 55 head-to-head meetings, and we look for that pattern to continue given this matchup.
Pick: Twins, Royals Under 8
Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers Under 35.5
Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers have been notorious for giving their best players very limited action in the preseason, while the Dallas Cowboys have also shown little in exhibition road games in recent years, so look for a rather dull, low scoring game here.
In fact, Turner held out LaDainian Tomlinson entirely last preseason, and that may have been a contributing factor to his slow stat when the real games began in September. As a result of their conservatism with their stars, the Chargers have traditionally struggled to score points in Week 1, averaging just 12.8 points in their last five openers with their largest point output being 17 points.
As low as this seems, it looks like a downright explosion when compared to how the Cowboys have done in their last five openers! Dallas is averaging an anemic 9.40 points in preseason Week 1 since 2003 with the Under going a perfect 5-0, and even that low figure is skewed by a 23-point performance the only time they opened at home during this span. On the four occasions that Dallas has opened on the road in the last five year, they scored 0, 0, 11 and 13 points respectively.
Finally, the Under is 79-52, 60.3 percent in all NFL Week 1 preseason games with a posted total higher than 35 since 2000, including 1-0 this season.
Pick: Cowboys, Chargers Under 35.5