Tony George
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons
Look for QB Chris Redman to get the start this weekend against the Colts and plenty of playing time. We all know the Colts take the pre-season very lightly with Dungy as head coach,(0-2 this year) and with QB issues with Manning still out, a potential for no preseason looming for him, I doubt Sorgi will see much more than 4 or 5 series until the role at QB is turned over. Atlanta is trying to establish a winning attitude with numerous young players with depth at QB in terms of the preseason is better on the Falcons side of the ball, with Redman, top draft pick Matt Ryan and Joey Harrington, all vieing still for the job.
The Falcons had 23 first downs in their preseason opener against Jacksonville and threw for 228 yards, while allowing just 129 yards through the air on defense. The red zone numbers were 1 for 3 in missed opportunties, and they suffered a 3 point loss. I look for them at home to get it at home going against the 0-2, injury hampered Colts. Having 10 penalties for 80 yards and 4 turnovers had the Falcons coaching staff in a bad mood after a loss to Carolina, but that is somewhat expected in a week 1 preseason game with a new staff in place and lots of young players. This is also the Colts thrid straight road game, opening up in the Hall of Fame game on an nuetral site, which does play inot the mix here as a grueling camp has wound down and they take to the road again. I look for a supreme effort from Atlanta and QB Redman as well as Matt Ryan in this one, and with both potential starters in there, the first teamers for Atlanta will get more work.
Play Atlanta
Joe Gaffney
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars ML
Washington Redskins vs. New York Jets
Play: Washington Redskins
Fast Eddie Sports
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Indianapolis Colts
Ross Benjamin
Minnesota @ Baltimore
Pick: Minnesota +3.0
Any NFL preseason home favorite that is off an away underdog SU win, and is playing an opponent off a home favorite SU loss is 7-20 ATS since 1980. Play on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points.
Gator
MLB Saturday: Play Against MLB (NL) teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a team batting average of <=.255 against a starting pitcher whose ERA=4.20 to 5.20, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start, 48-19 SU the last 5 years (71.6%)
PLAY: Houston Astros -105
Marc Lawrence
Play On: LA Angels
Halos take on the Tribe at Progressive Field in game Two of this weekend series when John Lackey takes on Fausto Carmona in a matchups of right handers. Lackey owns a shapr 2.73 ERA on the road this season and is 4-1 in his day team starts. On the flip side, Carmona's 5.44 ERA a home this season is a run and a half worse than his 3.95 road ERA. Back Johnny Angle here today as the Halos improve to 9-1 on Saturdays.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Kendrick's road ERA (5.45) is more than a run and a half higher than his home ERA (3.90).Phillies are 5-10 their last 15 games on Saturdays.
Jimmy The Moose
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: over
Even with the Colts resting Peyton Manning as he recoperates their offense hasn't looked to bad. In their last game Lorenzen passed for 117 yards and two TD's. Their D has given up a total of 53 points in two preseason games and both games have easily played over the total. The Falcons lost their preseason opener but played over the tota. Matt Ryan looked good leading the offense in their first game and expect him to get more playing time tonight. Look for a high scoring game. Play the over.
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR SATURDAY
Philly and Kendrick -140 over San Diego--The Padres blow and the Phils can't afford to lose--it's going to happen
Duke +150 with the UPSET SPECIAL over the Mets at PNC and Pedro
Colorado +120 at Washington--Hernandez over Lannan in DC--Lannan's the Nats best, but they still can't stop anyone
Cincy -120 over the Cards in the Queen City--Harang beats Piniero
Sanchez (even odds) and the Marlins over the Cubs and Marshall in South Fla
Oakland +120 and Greg Smith knock off the White Sox in the East Bay
Harrison +105 and the Rangers over the Rays in Arlington
Toronto stuns the Red Sox at Fenway with marcum getting the nod at +190--I like the pay out baby !
Baltimore +190 at Detroit--Sarfate says hello to Verlander, who's 8-13 and looks like he doesn't matter anymore--The Tigers have had a nightmare season and it's not getting any better soon
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR SATURDAY
CHISOX-A'S OVER 8 RUNS
TB-TEX OVER 11.5 RUNS
TOR-BOSTON UNDER 8.5 RUNS
BALT-DET OVER 10 RUNS
SEATT-MINNEY OVER 9 RUNS
ANGELS-TRIBE UNDER 8.5 RUNS
KC-NY UNDER 9.5 RUNS
MILW-LA OVER 8 RUNS
CUBS-MARLINS OVER 9.5 RUNS
CARDS-REDS UNDER 9.5 RUNS
COLO-WASH UNDER 9.5 RUNS
SF-ATL UNDER 9 RUNS
ARIZ-HOUS OVER 9 RUNS
METS-BUCS OVER 9.5 RUNS
PHILS-SD OVER 8.5 RUNS
Scott Ferrall Comps
WEEK 2 PRE-SEASON FREE B's
Jets -3 to Skins in New York--It's going to be a Brett Favre party and Clemens and Ratliff are battling for the #2 spot, so I say they put up numbers and beat Washington--OVER 35.5
Minnesota +2.5 from Baltimore--Jared Allen and company get it done on the road--UNDER 33.5
Jax -4 to Miami--Easy money here with the Jags laying out the Phins--UNDER 34.5
Atlanta -3 to Indy--Falcons get lucky at home against the Colts, who look miserable without Peyton Manning--OVER 37.5
San Diego +3 from St.Louis--The Chargers are simply better than the Rams--UNDER 37
Saints -3.5 to Texans in New Orleans--OVER 36.5--Bush and company roll it up on Bourbon Street
Arizona +3 at Kansas City--I say the Cardinals Matt Leinaert puts on a show as does Kurt Warner on the road at Arrowhead--OVER 35
Green Bay +3 from San Francisco--UNDER 34.5--Pack get it right after losing to the Bengals on Monday night--49er's still suck !
Dallas +2 from Denver in the Mile High City--Cowboys finally get it together--OVER 37 (it will be wild)
Seattle -2.5 to Chicago--The Bears aren't winning out in the Pacific Northwest--UNDER 36
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR SATURDAY
Minnesota -220 and Baker over the Mariners at the Homerdome in the Twin Cities
Lackey -135 at Cleveland over Carmona and the Tribe--The Angels are so much better than the Indians--it's not even funny
Ponson -170 in the Bronx over the Royals and Zach Greinke--The Bombers always bitch-slap KC every time they come to Yankee Stadium--Plus, I'm going to the game with TR (thanx to ARTIE)
Milwaukee and Bush +120 at Dodger Stadium over Derek Lowe and the Dodgers--I think the Brewers can dance with LA, even on the road
Atlanta -135 over the Giants at Turner Field--Dirty Sanchez loses to Mike Hampton in the Dirty South
Houston -105 and Brandon Backe over the Diamondbacks and Petit in Minute Maid--The Stros have been cooking lately--winning 8 straight at one point heading into Friday night's action--stick with the HOT TEAMS--it makes you money usually
DOC'S
2 Unit Play. Take Under 34 in Green Bay @ San Francisco NFLX Game of the Year.
1 Unit Play. Take Arizona +3 over Kansas City
1 Unit Play. Take Seattle +1 over Chicago
PRO INFO SPORTS
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
DENVER -2 1/2 over Dallas
Two teams out for win #1 of the 2008 NLFX will meet up Saturday night, when the Broncos host the Cowboys in the second August warm-up outing for each squad.
Denver lost 19-16 at Houston in their preseason opener last week, while Dallas was upended 31-17 at San Diego.
Both starting QBs played well last week, although Tony Romo only threw 3 passes against the Chargers. The majority of the Dallas starters will play the first half of this preseason game against the Broncos; however, Romo, tight end Jason Witten, running back Marion Barber and wide receiver Terrell Owens will all take a seat after 1 quarter. This should turn the offense sluggish for the Cowpokes, as backup QB Brad Johnson, pushing 40, was an ugly 5-15 last week. Johnson's outing was so weak, Dallas owner Jerry Jones is wondering why he didn't grab another veteran QB in the offseason. Now, Dallas is sitting Romo down early to get some playing time for Johnson with the first-string offensive line.
One of our NFLX Handicapping strategies is to play AGAINST a team that is ignoring its strength to work on a weakness. During exhibition season it's common for a polished team to work on a weak spot, which is what the Cowboys are doing here with Johnson. A team such as Dallas simply doesn't need to work its strongest stuff while ignoring its weaknesses, which means we can expect the 'Boys to be much less less productive than usual.
This relates to another NFLX Handicapping Strategy of ours, which is:
Play AGAINST a team off a playoff season and/or with established veterans at most positions and few position battles going on, and that figures to be playoff bound again with basically the same team, especially early in the preseason.
Teams with most of their roster spots already filled usually lack quality free agent rookies. There simply aren't a lot of positions open on those type of teams, making them unattractive to the better free agents - the ones with options to go to more than one training camp. Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless".
The Broncos, on other hand, have a lot to prove in the preseason off another season without a playoff appearance. Denver is relishing the opportunity to go up against the vaunted "America's Team" as was shown this week when the 2 teams scrimmaged together. The team that went 7-9 last season loved matching up against a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
"I don't think Dallas was used to that type of practice," Broncos cornerback Dre Bly said.
"Those guys finished 13-3 last year, so they probably can afford to relax in practice and coast their way through certain drills. Us, we were 7-9, so we're on the ground right now and we're trying to get back up that hill."
A year ago, the Cowboys physically dominated the Broncos in their preseason game at Dallas. The Broncos got so frustrated, some vented afterward that the 'Boys had broken unwritten NFL rules by blitzing too much for a relatively meaningless exhibition. Denver hasn't forgotten about that treatment and will be quite motivated here. Another NFLX Handicapping Strategy we use is: Play ON a team looking to prove themselves against a conference champion or Super Bowl favorite. Teams looking for a confidence-building victory will have extra incentive to play well and beat a Super Bowl caliber team.
It's never easy for a team to come into Denver and leave with a win, especially during the exhausting preseason. This is why we look to play AGAINST a sea-level visiting favorite or very small underdog at a stadium one mile or more above sea level when all factors indicate a close game. The air is considerably thinner at 4000+ feet in elevation than those below 1000 feet. With the oxygen level greatly reduced at higher elevations, the heart and breathing rates increase to compensate. This is experienced as shortness of breath and early fatigue. It takes about 10 days for the body to completely acclimate to altitude, so low-altitude teams making road trips to the Rocky Mountains simply don't have enough time to fully adjust.
This is why it's no surprise that Denver is a powerful 10-0-1 ATS at home in NFLX play when not favored by more than 4 points. We look for the Broncos starters to be very competitive with the Cowboys starters and for the home team to have the edge from there with a better QB rotation and stamina, leading to a SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: DENVER BY 7 OVER DALLAS
John Fina
Selection: Baltimore/Detroit Over 10
Put us down on the Baltimore Orioles/Detroit Tigers Over 10 for our Free MLB Selection on Saturday. Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Baltimore Orioles do battle with the Detroit Tigers. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will send to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Baltimore Orioles Starting Pitcher (Dennis Sarfate) has a 11.45 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Detroit Tigers Starting Pitcher (Justin Verlander) has a 8.66 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers will most likely give up many runs today. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another high-scoring game today! Take the Baltimore Orioles/Detroit Tigers Over 10!
Black Widow Sports
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -120
Edwin Jackson will look to match Matt Garza’s brilliant start against the Rangers last night. Jackson is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in 3 career starts against Texas. Jackson is 5-2 with a 3.44 ERA on the road this year. He’s up against Matt Harrison, who owns a terrible 7.06 ERA this year. Harrison is no match for Jackson tonight. The Rays are 39-19 (+17.1 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Don’t be surprised if the Rays shut out the Rangers again tonight. Texas hasn’t scored a single run in 2 consecutive games now. Take Tampa Bay on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Toronto Blue Jays +108
Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. This is a 40-17 ML System hitting 70.2% (+30.4 Units) since 1997. Roy Halladay is 13-9 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.049 WHIP on the season. The Red Sox will struggle against Halladay after facing the wish-wash pitchers the Texas Rangers had to offer in their last series. Bet Toronto on the road.
Dwayne Bryant
Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's
Play : Chicago White Sox -131
Oakland took the series opener last night, 6-4, but it looks to me like the ChiSox will even things up tonight behind John Danks. Danks owns a 2.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .285 OOBP in his 11 road starts this season. He is also in excellent current form, posting a 3.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .260 OOBP in his last three starts (19/5 K/BB ratio). Danks has won all three of his career starts vs. Oakland (two in '08), with a 1.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Oakland's Greg Smith has solid home numbers and decent numbers recently, but his 11/11 K/BB ratio in his last three starts is a bit concerning if you're an A's backer. Smith faced the White Sox for the first two times in his career this season. His first start vs. Chicago: 7 IP, 1 R, 6 H (0 HR), 1 BB, 4 K. His last start vs. Chicago: 5 IP, 4 R, 5 H (2 HR), 6 BB, 2 K. It would appear Chicago has Smith figured out now that they've seen him twice.
The White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter, 4-0 in Danks' last 4 starts during game 2 of a series, and 6-2 in Danks' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The A's are 3-13 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series, 4-23 in their last 27 overall, and 1-6 in Smith's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Take White Sox.