Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Cards/Reds Under 9.5
This is a huge total for the starter going for both the Cards and Reds Saturday. Joel Pineiro is 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA lifetime against the Reds. The UNDER is 10-4 in Aaron Harang’s 14 lifetime starts against the Cardinals. Both teams struggle to score runs, especially with starters Harang and Pineiro going tonight. The Cards are allowing just 3.1 runs/game over their last 7 games while the Reds are scoring just 3.4 runs/game their last 7 contests. The UNDER is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings at Cincinnati. The Reds are 9-1 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season. The Cards are 9-1 UNDERin road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. St. Louis is 34-14 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with the UNDER 9.5 runs.
John Fina
Baltimore/Detroit Over 10 (-110)
Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Baltimore Orioles do battle with the Detroit Tigers. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will send to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Baltimore Orioles Starting Pitcher (Dennis Sarfate) has a 11.45 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Detroit Tigers Starting Pitcher (Justin Verlander) has a 8.66 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers will most likely give up many runs today. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another high-scoring game today! Take the Baltimore Orioles/Detroit Tigers Over 10!
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Washington (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Brett Favre-era begins for the Jets as they host the Redskins at Giants Stadium in New Jersey.
On the same day they announced the acquisition of Favre, the Jets went out and upset the Browns 24-20 as five-point road underdogs, winning despite allowing 382 total yards and getting outrushed 107-59. New York is on a 12-5 roll in August (10-7 ATS), including 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five. Also, the Jets have won six of their last eight preseason games in Giants Stadium (4-4 ATS).
After whipping the Colts in the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 3, Washington came home last week and held off the Bills 17-14, coming up short as a 5½-point favorite. Despite winning their first two games this summer, the Redskins are still only 4-9 SU and ATS since the start of the 2005 exhibition season. They’ve also lost eight of their last 10 non-neutral-site road games in the preseason (3-7 ATS), and they’re 0-3 in this week of the preseason the last three years (1-2 ATS).
Favre has been with New York for just about a week and will take his first live snaps since the NFC Championship game last season when the Giants upset the Packers in Green Bay. Jets’ coach Eric Mangini said the future Hall-of-Famer will start and take between eight and 12 snaps in his New York debut.
There is a backup QB controversy brewing in New York as Brett Ratliff is pushing Kellen Clemens for the No. 2 spot. Ratliff completed 14-of-20 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns in Cleveland on August 7 while Clemens was just 4-of-6 for 31 yards. Mangini said Ratliff will see “significant” playing time against the Redskins.
Washington’s QB rotation is set with Jason Campbell and the first-team offense getting a couple of series, followed by veteran Todd Collins the rest of the first half. Derek Devine will play the third quarter and rookie Colt Brennan is slated for the fourth quarter, according to new coach Jim Zorn. Campbell has completed 80 percent of his throws in limited action this season for 132 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions.
These two squads met in the preseason in 2006 when the Jets got a 27-14 road win, easily covering as a four-point underdog.
The under is 4-1 in Washington’s last five in August. Conversely, the Jets, who topped the total at Cleveland, have gone over the number in each of their last three preseason home games, excluding neutral-site games against the Giants.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Minnesota (0-1 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (1-0 SU and ATS)
After getting outgained by 121 yards in the opening week of the preseason, the Vikings will be taking a long look at the starting offense tonight when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore to take on the Ravens.
Minnesota coach Brad Childress said his starting offense will play the first half with QB Tarvaris Jackson under center. Jackson went 8-of-11 for 118 yards and a touchdown a week ago at home against the Seahawks, but backups John David Booty (9-of-18 for 82 yards and an INT), Gus Frerotte (4-of-7 for 60 yards) and Brooks Bollinger (1-of-2 for eight yards) didn’t do much. Expect to see Booty and Frerotte for about a quarter each, with Bollinger the odd man out.
Minnesota’s highly-touted defense was nowhere to be found in last Friday’s 34-17 loss to the Seahawks as a three-point home favorite. The Vikes are now 4-4-1 SU and 5-4 ATS in August since Childress took over as coach, but they have cashed in three of four preseason road games, all as an underdog. Additionally, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU exhibition defeat and 2-0 SU and ATS in Week 2 since Childress took over.
Baltimore went to New England in Week 1 and surprised the Patriots 16-15 as a 4½-point road underdog, making a winner of new coach John Harbaugh in his debut. The Ravens have been a picture of mediocrity in the preseason the last five years, going 10-10 SU and ATS overall, 5-5 SU and ATS at home and 6-6 ATS as a favorite.
Harbaugh has anointed former Ohio State and Heisman Trophy-winning QB Troy Smith as the starter for this one with Kyle Boller getting about a quarter of work and rookie Joe Flacco cleaning up the fourth quarter. Harbaugh said there is no clear-cut leader for the starting QB position, as all three have spent time with the first-team offense. Smith went 5-of-12 for 74 yards in New England a week ago with Boller having a good night at 11-of-15 for 102 yards and an INT.
These two met in the 2006 preseason with the Vikings scoring a 30-7 home win and cover as 2½-point favorites.
The Vikings have topped the total in eight of their last 13 preseason games dating to 2005, including the last four in a row. On the flip side, during that same time frame, the under is 9-3 for Baltimore, including 4-2 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Miami (0-1 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
One result of the Brett Favre-saga is the arrival of former Jets’ QB Chad Pennington in Miami, and the veteran passer will get plenty of time under center when the Dolphins travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars.
The Dolphins’ putrid offense picked up last week right where it left off at the end of a miserable 2007 season, managing just two field goals and 198 total yards in a 17-6 home loss to the Buccaneers as a two-point favorite. Miami is 9-13 SU and 8-12-2 ATS in preseason action since 2003, including 4-6 SU and ATS on the road. However, they have gone 2-0 SU and ATS in Week 2 the last two summers.
New Miami coach Tony Sparano has divided his first-string practice snaps this week between Pennington and rookie Chad Henne (5-of-10 for 67 yards in the preseason opener). Expect to see Pennington start and play into the second quarter before giving way to Henne, who will take it to the fourth period when it’s unknown if Sparano will go with second-year pro John Beck (5-of-9 for 45 yards last week) or veteran Josh McCown (5-of-8 for 35 yards).
Jacksonville got a fourth-quarter field goal to defeat the Falcons 20-17 in Week 1, falling just short as a four-point home favorite. Since coach Jack Del Rio took over the Jags in 2003, the team has dominated summer games, going 15-6 (13-8 ATS), including 9-2 at home (6-5 ATS).
Unlike in Miami, there are no QB questions for Del Rio, who said the starter is David Garrard who will go the first quarter, followed by Cleo Lemon for the middle two periods and third-stringer Todd Bouman mopping up the fourth quarter. The Jags’ quarterbacks managed just 129 net passing yards on 30 attempts last week. Jacksonville is thin at WR as starters Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams will sit out tonight.
These two have met each of the last five preseasons with the Jags leading 3-2 SU and ATS, including a 27-17 win as 2½-point chalk last time the teams met in Jacksonville in August 2005. Miami got an 18-17 win as a 1½-point home underdog last preseason.
The under is 5-0 in the Dolphins’ last five preseason road games. Conversely, Jacksonville is 10-3 “over” the last three-plus years in August.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Atlanta (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
The Colts are on the road for the third straight week, hoping to snap an ugly preseason slump when they visit the new-look Falcons.
Indianapolis’ preseason woes continued with last Saturday’s 23-20 overtime loss at Carolina. The Colts, who lost to the Redskins 40-16 in the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 3, have now dropped 13 of their last 15 exhibition contests since 2005, and even though they cashed as a four-point underdog in Carolina, they’re still only 4-11 ATS during this slump. Also, Indy is mired in additional preseason ATS funks of 3-5 on the road (1-7 SU), 2-7 as an underdog and 0-3 in Week 2.
Playing its first game under new coach Mike Smith, the Falcons went to Jacksonville last week and got a solid performance from rookie QB Matt Ryan (9-for-15, 113 yards, one TD), yet still came up a 20-17 loser, covering as a four-point underdog. Atlanta is 9-4-1 ATS since the start of the 2005 preseason, but it is just 3-4-1 ATS in its last seven as a chalk in August.
Career backup QB Jim Sorgi will start and play into the second quarter tonight, followed by Quinn Gray for a quarter and Jared Lorenzen finishing the game. With Peyton Manning on the shelf until the season opener, Sorgi will start each preseason game and see extended action, according to coach Tony Dungy.
The Falcons will start QB Joey Harrington but expect to see a lot of Ryan tonight as Smith takes a long look at the rookie. Chris Redman, who started last week’s game, and D.J. Shockley will split time in the second half. Smith said Ryan will start on Friday against the Titans as he tries to get each QB a preseason start.
These two met in the preseason back in 2005 with the Falcons getting a 27-21 win in Indianapolis as one-point ‘dogs. In last year’s regular-season matchup, the Colts got a 31-13 win in the Georgia Dome on Thanksgiving Night, cashing as a 13½-point chalk.
The Colts have topped the total in their first two preseason games, while the over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five summer contests in the Georgia Dome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
San Diego (1-0 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Rams look to bounce back from an awful Week 1 effort in Tennessee when they host the Chargers at the Edward Jones Dome.
St. Louis got outgained 495-241 in an ugly 34-21 loss at Tennessee last Saturday, never threatening to cover as a three-point road underdog. The Rams are just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in August since coach Scott Linehan took over prior to the 2006 season, including 1-3 ATS at home and 1-3 ATS as a favorite. They’ve also lost three straight Week 2 games both SU and ATS.
San Diego opened up with an impressive 31-17 rout of the Cowboys, covering as a three-point home favorite. The Chargers are now 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in preseason play under second-year coach Norv Turner, including 2-0 on the road (1-1 ATS).
After allowing QB Philip Rivers and his starters to play longer than expected against Dallas, Turner said the first string will see very limited action today. When Rivers departs, backup Billy Volek will lead the offense, with third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst likely to see extended second-half action. Once again, though, the offense will be without star RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who hasn’t played in an exhibition game since 2005.
After getting whipped last week, Linehan said he expects to “play a significant amount of time with his starting unit.” He wasn’t specific beyond that, but Marc Bulger and the first-string probably will play at least the first half. Trent Green backs up Bulger, with Brock Berlin and Bruce Gradkowski possibly seeing action late.
These teams met last summer in San Diego in Week 2, and the Chargers rolled to a 30-13 victory as a 2½-point home chalk. Two summers earlier, San Diego cruised to 36-21 Week 2 road win as a five-point favorite.
The over is 6-1 in San Diego’s last seven exhibition outings, including 3-0 on the road, while the Rams have topped the total in each of their last three Week 2 preseason games, including the two games against the Chargers in 2005 and 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
Houston (1-0, 0-0-1 ATS) at New Orleans (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Texans and Saints, who had a series of joint practices this week, square off at the Superdome, with both teams looking to start the preseason 2-0.
Houston got a game-winning field goal as time expired to knock off the Broncos 19-16 a week ago, pushing as a three-point home chalk. The Texans are 6-3 (5-2-2 ATS) in the preseason under third-year coach Gary Kubiak after going 2-10 SU and ATS the previous three summers. Also, with Kubiak at the helm, Houston is 3-1 on the road in August (2-1-1 ATS) and 4-1 ATS as an underdog, and the team is 3-0 SU and ATS in Week 2 the last three preseasons.
The Saints’ offense looked in fine form in last Thursday’s 24-10 rout of Arizona as a three-point road underdog. New Orleans, which outgained the Cardinals 383-282, is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six exhibition battles since the beginning of last year, but 2-8 SU and ATS at home and 1-7 ATS as a favorite going back to 2003.
New Orleans’ starters, who played two series last week, should get a longer look tonight, though Payton didn’t reveal specific plans. It’s likely that QB Drew Brees will start before giving way to backup Mark Brunell, who will then hand off to Tyler Palko. However, the Saints will once again be without TE Jeremy Shockey, and RB Reggie Bush also probably will sit this one out.
Kubiak said Matt Schaub and the first-string offense will be on the field for about 1½ quarters, but he added that the outing could be shorter depending on how they look. Whenever Schaub gets yanked, backup Sage Rosenfels will come in and play through the third quarter, with rookie Alex Brink mopping up. Fourth-string QB Shane Boyd will not play.
The under has cashed in six of New Orleans’ last eight preseason contests, including three straight at home, but Houston has topped the total in five straight preseason games going back to last year, and the over is 4-1 in the team’s last five August road affairs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (0-1 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (1-0 SU and ATS)
After putting up 24 points in their exhibition debut against the Bears in Chicago last week, the Chiefs return home looking to keep their offense rolling when they host the Cardinals.
Kansas City jumped out to a 14-3 halftime lead at Chicago, but fell behind 17-14 going into the fourth quarter before rallying for a 24-20 victory as a three-point road underdog. It was a rare August win and cover for Herm Edwards’ group, which went 0-4 SU and ATS in the 2007 preseason and is still only 3-10 SU and ATS in its lat 13 exhibition contests. Also, K.C. is mired in preseason slumps of 2-4 SU and ATS at home, 0-3 SU and ATS in Week 2 and 1-4 ATS as a favorite going back to 2005.
Arizona’s defense looked shaky in last Friday’s 24-10 home loss to the Saints, yielding 383 total yards, including 285 through the air. The Cardinals have lost all five preseason games under second-year coach Ken Whisenhunt (1-4 ATS), including a pair of losses and non-covers on the highway in 2007.
Kansas City will use the same quarterback rotation as last week, with starter Brodie Croyle playing through at least the first quarter. Croyle will give way to Damon Huard, with Tyler Thigpen, who was solid in Chicago, finishing up.
After sitting out the entire Saints game, veteran QB Kurt Warner is getting the start in this one. He’s expected to play most of the entire first half, followed by Matt Leinart, who remains first on the team’s depth chart. Brian St. Pierre and rookie Anthony Morelli, who are battling for the third-string job and who both played last week, would finish up.
These squads last met in the preseason in 2005, with the Cardinals scoring a 24-17 upset victory as a four-point underdog.
For the Chiefs, the under is on preseason runs of 6-3 overall and 4-1-1 at home. Meanwhile, Arizona has followed up a 5-0 “over” streak in the preseason by staying low in its last two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Green Bay (0-1 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
After a decent debut as the Packers’ new starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers leads Green Bay into San Francisco to face a 49ers team that looked dreadful in its preseason opener.
With all eyes glued to his every move, Rodgers acquitted himself well Monday night at home against Cincinnati, going 9-for-15 for 117 yards with one touchdown and one interception (which came on a deflection). However, even though Rodgers spotted the Packers a 10-0 lead, it didn’t hold up as Green Bay fell 20-17 as a three-point home favorite.
The Packers are now just 3-6 SU and ATS under coach Mike McCarthy since the 2006 preseason. They’re also 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six August road tilts and 1-4 ATS in their last five as a preseason ‘dog, but they are 2-0 SU and ATS in Week 2 with McCarthy at the helm.
San Francisco laid an egg in its debut last Friday, managing just two field goals and 269 total yards (70 rushing) in getting steamrolled 18-6 at Oakland as a one-point road underdog. The 49ers are 5-8 SU in preseason play under fourth-year coach Mike Nolan, but 8-5 ATS. Also, since Nolan took over, San Francisco is 5-1 SU and ATS at home in August and 2-0 ATS as a favorite.
Green Bay’s starters (including Rodgers) will get about 30 to 35 plays of action tonight. Rookie Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn will follow Rodgers, as was the case last week when Flynn (the listed third-stringer) easily outplayed Brohm. RB Ryan Grant and LB A.J. Hawk likely will not play for Green Bay.
Quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan, who opened camp as the third-stringer in San Francisco, will get the starting nod for the second straight week and play most, if not all, of the first half. Former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith is slated to play the third quarter, with Shaun Hill leading the offense in the fourth.
The over is 6-2 in Green Bay’s last eight preseason games overall (2-1 on the road) and 3-1 in San Francisco’s last four August contests at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (0-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (0-1, 0-0-1 ATS)
After a week of testy scrimmages against one another, the Cowboys and Broncos get it on one more time under the lights at Invesco Field, with both teams looking to respond from Week 1 losses.
Denver was on the wrong end of a 19-16 loss in Houston last Saturday, pushing as a three-point road underdog when the Texans drilled a game-winning 25-yard field goal as time expired. The Broncos are still 20-10-2 ATS the last eight-plus preseasons under coach Mike Shanahan, including 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight following SU defeat.
Dallas limited the Chargers to just 213 yards of total offense, but committed two turnovers en route to a 31-17 opening-week loss in San Diego as a three-point underdog. Although the Cowboys are still 16-8-1 (16-9 ATS) in the preseason since 2002, they have lost all three road games (0-3 ATS) since coach Wade Phillips was hired before the 2007 campaign. They’re also 0-2 ATS as an underdog under Phillips after going 5-1 ATS as a preseason pup from 2002-06.
One positive for Dallas: It has won and covered in Week 2 each of the last three summers, including a 31-20 rout of the Broncos as a five-point home chalk in 2007.
Most of the Cowboys’ starters will play the entire first half tonight, with the exception of QB Tony Romo, WR Terrell Owens, RB Marion Barber and TE Jason Whitten, all of whom are likely to be on the field for just a quarter. Romo figures to be followed by veteran Brad Johnson, with third-stringer Richard Bartel finishing up.
Shanahan didn’t disclose his playing-time plans for this contest, but expect starting QB Jay Cutler to get a longer look than last week when he was on the field for just two series. Patrick Ramsey serves as Cutler’s backup, followed by Darrell Hackney.
In preseason action, the over is on runs of 4-0 for Dallas overall and 4-0 for Dallas on the road. However, the under is 3-0 in Denver’s last three summer games at Invesco Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Chicago (0-1 SU and ATS) at Seattle (1-0 SU and ATS)
Two teams that experienced opposite results in Week 1 clash at Qwest Field in the Pacific Northwest, where the Seahawks, who will likely be without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck, host the Bears.
Seattle throttled the Vikings 34-17 as a three-point road underdog eight days ago, piling up 419 total yards while outrushing Minnesota 162-52. Since the beginning of last year’s exhibition slate, the Seahawks are 4-1 SU and ATS in August (2-0 SU and ATS at home), and the straight-up winner is 13-0 ATS in their past three-plus preseasons.
Chicago’s much-maligned offense produced 362 total yards last week against Kansas City, and the Bears outrushed the Chiefs 175-83, but it wasn’t enough to avoid a 24-20 setback as a three-point
home favorite. On the bright side, the Bears did go 2-0 SU and ATS on the road last August, and they’re 5-2 ATS as a preseason underdog under coach Lovie Smith, 3-1 ATS in their last four after a SU preseason loss and 3-0 SU and ATS in Week 2 going back to 2005.
Hasselbeck missed four days of practice with a back injury and probably will sit this one out. Third-stringer Charlie Frey, who took every snap with the first-team offense on Thursday, will probably start under center. Senaca Wallace would replace Frey, with Dalton Bell possibly finishing up.
The Bears’ quarterback battle resumes in this one, with Rex Grossman getting the starting nod after Kyle Orton led the No. 1 offense last week. Orton went 7-for-10 for just 56 yards against the Chiefs, while Grossman was 4-for-8 for 44 yards and one TD, but third-stringer Caleb Hanie (9 of 16, 101 yards, one TD) outdid both of them. Grossman and the starters should play the entire first half and possibly into the third quarter. Orton will follow under center, with Hanie once again finishing up.
The over is 9-4 in Seattle’s last 13 preseason games, but only 3-3 at home, while Chicago has topped the total four times in its last five summer affairs since the start of last season. The over is also 4-1 in the Bears’ last five exhibition road tilts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (70-53) at L.A. Dodgers (63-59)
Two teams looking to enhance their playoff chances clash in the middle game of a weekend series at Dodger Stadium, with Los Angeles set to give the ball to Derek Lowe (9-10, 4.11 ERA) opposite the Brewers’ Dave Bush (7-9, 4.35).
Los Angeles ran its winning streak to five in a row with Friday’s 5-3 victory. The Dodgers are on surges of 7-2 overall, 12-3 at home (7-0 in their last seven) and 4-0 when Lowe hurls on Saturday. Also, L.A. is 42-20 in the last 62 meetings with Milwaukee (4-1 this year), including 21-8 against the Brew Crew in the past 29 battles at Dodger Stadium (11-3 in the last 14).
The Brewers have dropped two in a row following an eight-game winning streak. Despite that, they’re still on runs of 6-2 against the N.L. West, 20-9 on the highway and 4-0 on Saturdays.
Lowe bounced back from his worst outing of the season (eight runs, 13 hits allowed in 3 1/3 innings in St. Louis) with a quality effort against the Phillies on Monday, giving up three runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings, winning 8-6. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Lowe’s last seven trips to the hill, including 3-1 at home, where the veteran right-hander is only 7-5 despite a solid 2.83 ERA.
Bush has been dynamite in his last two starts, giving up one run on three hits over seven innings of an 8-1 win in Cincinnati on Aug. 5, then yielding a run on five hits in 6 1/3 innings en route to Monday’s 7-1 rout of Washington at home. Milwaukee is 7-2 in Bush’s last nine outings, with the right-hander giving up only one run in six of those outings. However, despite the performance in Cincinnati 11 days ago, Bush has struggled in a big way on the road, going 2-6 with a 6.19 ERA in 10 appearances (nine starts). Also, the Brewers are 8-22 in his last 30 starts as a visitor.
Lowe is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA in seven lifetime appearances (five starts) versus the Brewers, including a no-decision on May 18 in Milwaukee, where he allowed four runs on six hits in six innings as L.A. prevailed, 6-4. Meanwhile, Bush faced the Dodgers twice back in 2006, going 1-1 with a 4.72 ERA, losing a 10-2 decision in the one start in Los Angeles.
The under is 8-3-2 in the Brewers’ last 13 games overall, 11-2-1 in their last 14 road tilts and 5-2-1 in Bush’s eight road efforts. For Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 9-5-1 overall, 19-9-1 at Dodger Stadium, 4-0 on Saturdays, 16-7 against the N.L. Central and 5-1 when Lowe pitches at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
DUNKEL
LA Angels at Cleveland
The Angels look to bounce back from their loss in Cleveland last night and build on their 9-3 record as a road favorite between -125 and -150. Los Angeles is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130). Here are all of today's games.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 16
Game 951-952: Philadelphia at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.158; San Diego (Reineke) 14.952
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Under
Game 953-954: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Martinez) 14.065; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.602
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+160); Under
Game 955-956: Arizona at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 14.881; Houston (Backe) 15.994
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Under
Game 957-958: San Francisco at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.327; Atlanta (Hampton) 13.336
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Under
Game 959-960: Colorado at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hernandez) 14.449; Washington (Lannan) 13.112
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over
Game 961-962: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.252; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.859
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Over
Game 963-964: Chicago Cubs at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Marshall) 15.860; Florida (Sanchez) 16.304
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Under
Game 965-966: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 16.024; LA Dodgers (Lowe) 17.217
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over
Game 967-968: Kansas City at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 13.974; NY Yankees (Ponson) 14.949
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Over
Game 969-970: LA Angels at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 16.739; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.225
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under
Game 971-972: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.067; Minnesota (Baker) 16.674
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-210); Under
Game 973-974: Baltimore at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Sarfate) 15.635; Detroit (Verlander) 15.392
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Detroit (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+190); Over
Game 975-976: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.615; Boston (Byrd) 16.141
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Jackson) 15.181; Texas (Harrison) 15.441
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+110); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.365; Oakland (Smith) 14.191
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under
Jeffmoney
Whitesox -135 (pod)
D'backs -105
Angels -140
Paul Bovi
CHI Bears and SEA Seahawks
Take CHI Bears
Holmgren is 1-5 straight up after a double digit win over the last 5 years while Lovie Smith is 3-1 after a loss during his 4year tenure. The Bears have an edge at the QB position as Orton and Grossman compete for the starters. position. Look for the Bears to get the win in Seattle
Dave Cokin
MIN Vikings and BAL Ravens
Take BAL Ravens
The Vikings and Ravens have taken markedly different approaches to this pre-season. As opposed to his past camps, Brad Childress has tuned it way down this August. It's a much more relaxed atmosphere in Vikings camp, an indicator they're pretty well set as far as their September lineup goes, which also means less need to focus on these meaningless games. That's not the case in Baltimore, where it's been very physical from the first day of camp, as new coach Harbaugh is intent on pushing for more intensity. The Ravens have been doing lots of blitzing in practice this week, so they'll surely go that route tonight. It sure looks to me like the team putting more emphasis on this game is the home team, so I'm on the Ravens as small chalk.
Jim Feist
TOR Blue Jays and BOS Red Sox
Take Under
A pair of pitchers on the mound who know how to throw strikes. Toronto ace Roy Halladay is a workhorse with 13 wins. He has a 1.99 ERA his last three starts and has walked just 31 in 182 innings. The Blue Jays have not gone over the total in this last 4 starts. New Boston pitcher Paul Byrd is even better with his control, walking 24 batters in 131 innings. He's also hot, with a 1.14 ERA his last three starts and a 3-0 record. Byrd is 4-0 under the total his last 4 starts. Look for a fast game with little scoring, play the Blue Jays/Red Sox under the total!
Great Lakes Sports
Dallas at Denver
Play: Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are a perfect 2-0ATS at home vs the Dallas Cowboys since 1993, and are a very solid 22-7ATS when playing on Saturday's since 1993. The Denver Broncos is also a very nice 19-11ATS when playing at home since 1993, and are 3-1ATS as a home favorite of three points or less since 1993. We look for the Denver Broncos to beat the Dallas Cowboys in the preseason showdown for the home ATS win & cover tonight.
LARRY NESS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
How much have the Red Sox missed Manny? It seems the obvious answer is, not very much! Manny was sent to LA on July 31 but the Red Sox are 10-3 in August, averaging a robust 7.23 RPG (had averaged 4.94 RPG prior to that). The Red Sox enter this game 71-51 overall and with a 43-16 mark here in Fenway, where they've outscored the opposition by an average of 5.95-to-4.00 RPG. Despite typically high prices to overcome here at home, the team is plus-$1,882 vs moneyline, second in all of MLB to only the ever-surprising Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays come to Boston for a three-game set with a 28-34 record on the road, getting outscore 4.23-to-4.27 RPG. INCREDIBLY, Toronto opened the favorite in this game, although by late-morning on Friday, the Red Sox are now the small favorite (you think?). Now no one puts any more emphasis on starting pitchers than I do but the linemakers are really giving too much credit to Roy Halladay and not nearly enough credit to Paul Byrd, while totally IGNORING Boston's home dominance. Halladay is a terrific pitcher but let's look at his '08 record. He's 13-9 with a 2.76 ERA, with the Blue Jays going a very mediocre 13-11 in his starts. Regulars know I love to compare how teams do with that game's starting pitcher on the mound against how they do when he's not on the mound. Doing the math finds the Blue Jays are hardly any better with Halladay on the hill, as they are 13-11 (.542) with him and 49-49 (.500) without him. That's clearly "no big deal!" He's never had much success vs Boston, posting a 10-11 (4.66 ERA) lifetime mark in 31 starts (Jays are 13-18) against the Red Sox. These last two years, he's made seven starts vs Boston (two TY and five in '07), going 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA (team is 2-5). As for Paul Byrd, he was coming off a superb 2007 season in which he went 15-8 but he a had a terrible first half for the Indians (3-10). However, how can one ignore his 4-0 mark since the break, where he's allowed just four ERs over 29 innings (1.24 ERA)? His most recent start for the Indians (before his fortunate trade to Boston) came against these Blue Jays in Toronto and he was matched up against Halladay. Pitching for a Cleveland team which is just 23-38 on the road as we speak, Byrd out-dueled Halladay in a 4-2 win. So here, pitching in front of a Boston team which is not only 43-16 at home but 32-12 in Fenway vs right-handed starters (averaging 5.9 RPG), why SHOULDN'T he best Toronto and Halladay again? And why SHOULDN'T the price on him be steeper? Halladay's matchup with Paul Byrd, making his Red Sox debut, was originally scheduled for Friday but rain postponed the series opener. Assuming the weather cooperates, Boston gets the win I predicted last night, a day later.
Big Al McMordie
Houston v Arizona
Pick: Astros
At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Houston Astros over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have made what they hope is a significant move to light a fire under their sagging offense by trading with the Cincinnati Reds for slugging outfielder Adam Dunn. Dunn may be a career .247 hitter, but he is a huge presence in the middle of a lineup, with the ability to hit tape-measure shots and he will certainly cause opposing pitchers to try to pitch around him, which should benefit the hitters below him in this lineup. So far, the trade seems to be paying off as Dunn has had hits in each of his four games with Arizona, and his new team is 3-1 since acquiring him, including Friday's 12-2 thrashing of this Houston club. Although Dunn only went 1 for 4 with no RBI in this game, the four men batting behind him went a combined 8 for 15 with nine driven in. The 'Stros had been red-hot before Friday's debacle, winning their last eight games in a row behind what seems to be their own brand of a rejuvenated offense. But Friday's game featured probably the best pitcher in the National League (if not in all of baseball) in Arizona's 18-game-winner Brandon Webb, so Houston should be quite pleased to have gotten that over with in the first of this three-game series. Tonight the Astros should have a much easier time of it facing 23-year-old righthander Yusmeiro Petit who, despite an ERA of 3.12 and only six walks in nearly 35 innings, sports a record of only 1-3. Petit only has one outing over five innings this season, which means that Arizona will probably have to rely quite heavily on its bullpen in this game, and that is a scary proposition lately for the Diamondbacks. Take the Astros
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona at HOUSTON -105
Interesting to talk about these two teams and how Arizona is sitting in first place in their division and they are getting ready for a fight for the division crown, but there's no talk of the Astros as they are well out of it in the N.L. Central. But these guys have the same record!
Tonight we're playing the Astros even though they got beat bad on Friday. But that was against the D'Backs Brandon Webb and not tonight's starter Yusmeiro Petit (1-3, 3.12 ERA). Petit is 0-2 on the road and Arizona has lost three of his four starts this season and six of his last eight dating back to last season. Petit has only lasted five innings in each of his last three.
Brandon Backe (7-11, 5.14) goes for Houston and he was excellent on Monday at home against the Giants, allowing just a run on four hits in seven innings of a 3-1 victory. Other than a rough outing against the Cubs on Aug. 6, Backe has been solid his last seven starts, including a shutout at Washington.
Houston has gone 20-9 in their last 29 games overall and they are playing some good baseball. Look for the Astros to beat the D'Backs tonight and get us some cash.
4♦ HOUSTON
Indianapolis at ATLANTA -3
We all know it, the Colts and coach Tony Dungy just don't care about the preseason. They take things real easy during August and get their people healthy to be ready for the regular season. You'll see no Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders or six other starters tonight for Indianapolis. That's why we play the Falcons.
Atlanta lost 20-17 in Jacksonville last week but the Falcons got a pretty good performance from QB Matt Ryan who went 9-of-15 for 113 yards and a TD pass. While it is Joey Harrington starting at QB tonight, all eyes for Atlanta are on Ryan and don't be surprised when he gets the majority of first half snaps.
Ryan is starting on Friday against the Titans and it's looking like he'll be the opening game starter.
For the Colts, career backup Jim Sorgi starts and will give way to Jared Lorenzen and Quinn Gray.
The Falcons are looking for some consistency from the players behind Ryan and want to see if he can lead the team. We're betting he can. Play Atlanta at home tonight.
3♦ ATLANTA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Chicago at SEATTLE
NFL preseason action tonight, and we expect the points to be coming fast, and furious at Qwest Field.
Chicago was able to roll up 362 yards of total offense in last week's opener against Kansas City, as that game sailed OVER the posted price. The Bears have gone OVER the total in the preseason in 4 of their last 5 road games, and with a battle for the starting quarterback spot going on between Grossman, Orton, and now Hanie, you can expect Chicago to be heading for the end zone every time they have the ball.
Seattle will be without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck tonight, but we think Seneca Wallace looked just fine last week in back up duty last week as the Seahawks crushed the Vikings 34-17.
Charlie Frey is expected to get the starting nod for Seattle in this one, and we feel he will be out to prove that he should be the backup over Wallace, so expect Frey to get the team into the endzone for sure.
Seattle is on a 9-4 OVER tear their last 13 preseason games, and this one sure has the makings of a high-scoring game if you ask us.
Play the OVER.
4♦ OVER
Dustin Hawkins
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Chicago White Sox
White Sox lost last night and need to bounce back to keep pace with the twins. Danks has been winning, but not sure how!! He justs gets it done and thats why I am taking the Sox -135