Jeff Bonds
Marlins -105 (2 dime)
Tigers -1.5
Mariners +190
EZWINNERS
5 STAR: (956) HOUSTON (-$103) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $515 to win $500)
3 STAR: (964) FLORIDA (-$105) over Chicago
(Action)
(Risking $315 to win $300)
3 STAR: (978) TEXAS (+$113) over Tampa Bay
(Action)
(Risking $300 to win $339)
2 STAR: (954) PITTSBURGH (+$145) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $290)
2 STAR: (952) SAN DIEGO (+$130) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $260)
2 STAR: (966) LA DODGERS (-$136) over Milwaukee
(Action)
(Risking $272 to win $200)
1 STAR: (967) KANSAS CITY (+$159) over NY Yankees
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $159)
BEN BURNS
Royals/Yankees Under
These pitchers faced each other back on May 1st when Ponson was still with Texas. That game resulted in a pitcher's duel, finishing with a final score of 2-1 in favor of Texas. That was Ponson's only start against KC this season. Greinke has faced the Yankees twice this season. In those two games, he allowed four earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.77 ERA. The UNDER was 1-0-1 in those games and is now 4-1-1 in Greinke's six career starts vs. the Yankees. Greinke admittedly comes off a poor start vs. the Twins - he allowed five earned runs in five innings. However, he'd previously pitched well in back to back games, allowing two runs in each of those games, while lasting 13 2/3 combined innings. He's allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last seven starts. Note that Greinke has pitched well in his seven daytime starts, going 4-3 with a solid 3.65 ERA, averaging slightly greater than seven innings in those outings. Like Greinke, Ponson has pitched better in the afternoon than he has during the evening. In three daytime starts, he has a 3.78 ERA. Ponson's last three starts have all finished UNDER the total. He an averaged an impressive seven innings per game in those three contests and they finished with final scores of 4-0, 5-3 and 1-0. Note that the 1-0 game (Angels on 8/1) was his last here in New York. Ponson has a very solid 3.00 ERA and 1.048 in those games. Overall, the UNDER is 7-1-1 the last nine meetings between these teams. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 27-13-1 when the Yankees have played during the afternoon this season. I expect those numbers to improve as Ponson and Greinke get into another pitcher's duel against each other. *Annihilator
PHILLIES
The Phillies finally got back on track yesterday with 45-year old Jamie Moyer outpitching 42-year old Greg Maddux. That snapped a 4-game skid. I expect them to build some much-needed momentum from that victory and for them to make it two in a row this evening. I also expect their bats to finally come alive. They'll be taking on Chad Reineke, who is making his major-league debut. Pitchers brought up from the minor leagues often bring pretty impressive numbers to the table. Even that doesn't mean they'll perform well at the big league level though. However, Reineke didn't even have much success at the Triple-A level. In fact, in 23 Triple-A appearances (22 starts) he was just 5-10 with a 4.37 ERA. Padres manager Bud Black commented: "He brings a fastball in the high 80s..." That may be 'bigtime' in the minor leagues but it's certainly nothing special in the major leagues - not in this era. I successfully played against Kendrick in his last start, an 8-6 loss at LA. I wasn't surprised that Kendrick struggled in that game as he was matched up against an LA team which is/was battling for the division lead and which had previously given him trouble. Additionally, he was matched up against Derek Lowe, who has been great at home lately. Even with that loss, the Phillies are still a highly profitable 10-3 (+7.6) in Kendrick's road starts. Note that Kendrick was 2-1 with an outstanding 1.45 ERA in his previous three starts, prior to the loss at LA. Tonight's matchup should be much more to his liking. Not only will Kendrick be matched up against a pitcher who has never pitched at this level but he'll be taking on a San Diego lineup which scores the second fewest number of runs per game in the majors - only Washington is slightly worse. Additionally, Kendrick dominated the Padres the only previous time he faced them. That came last August and saw him allow just one run through six complete innings. The Phillies won that game by a score of 14-2. That was at Philadelphia but the Phillies have also enjoyed plenty of success here in Southern California. In fact, with yesterday's win, they're now 4-0 their last four games here at San Diego and 13-3 their last 16 here. I feel the current price is reasonable and I look for the Phillies to continue their recent Petco Park dominance this evening. *Personal Favorite
NFL
MIAMI
Although home teams got off to a strong start in Week 2, the road dogs barked loudly in Week 1. I feel that this will be another strong spot to back the visitors. It's true that the Jaguars were the much better team in recent seasons and that was the case again last season. It's also true that the Jags won their Week 1 matchup, although by only a field goal, while the Dolphins lost theirs. Last season's and last week's results have helped to further strengthen the betting public's view that Jags are the much better team. This in turn, has given us solid line value on the Dolphins. Thursday showed us that teams that win in Week 1 (and vice versa) don't always necessarily fare very well in Week 2. In fact, the two teams (Pittsburgh and Carolina) which entered Thursday's games with a 1-0 record both lost. Conversely, the two winless teams (Buffalo and Philly) both won. The Dolphins enter this game with plenty to prove. They're off another terrible season. They've got a new coach (Tony Soparano) who really wants to show that he's the right man for the job and who would really like to establish a winning mentality. Note that Soparano has Bill Parcells, who generally emphasized winning in the preseason, looking over his shoulder. The Dolphins also have a full-blown quarterback competition going on. Judging by the amount of practice snaps, it appears that newly acquired Chad Pennington and Michigan rookie Chad Penne will see the majority of the snaps this week. Those two are in competition with McCown and Beck and all four are highly motivated to show that they should be the starter. After being run out of New York due to the arrival of Brett Favre, Pennington should be particularly determined to play well. Unlike the Dolphins, the Jags have very little to prove. They are coming off a strong season. Coach Del Rio enters the season with more job security than most of his NFL coaching peers - although that's not saying much. Additionally, they've already got a win under their belts and they've got an established #1 guy (David Garrard) at the all important QB position. Whether it's Garrad, Cleo Lemon or Todd Bauman in the game, the Jags' QBs will be playing behind a thin offensive line which is without center Brad Meester and a receiving corps which will still be without a couple (Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter) of its key components. Like the Steelers were in their Week 1 game, note that the Jags were rather fortunate to win their opening preseason contest. Not only did they have fewer first downs that the Falcons but the Jags were also outgained by nearly 80 (343-265) total yards. Additionally, they were very fortunate that the Falcons only scored three points off Jacksonville's three fumbles. These "instate rivals" typically meet in the preseason each season. The Dolphins, listed as slight underdogs, won by a score of 18-17 in last year's game. I'll gladly take the points but I expect a highly motivated effort from the Fish and for them to step up and score another outright win. *NFLX Underdog GOY
Colts/Falcons Under
When betting on football totals, the number 37 is an important one. That's because its consistently among the most common numbers for the final combined score to land on. Naturally, it's worth taking a second look at games which see their over/under lines cross that key number. That's the case with this evening's game, as the Falcons and Colts opening number was 36 and is currently up to 37.5 at most shops. This is due partly to the fact that both teams saw last week's game finish 'over' the total. A closer look shows that, coincidentally, the Falcons game actually landed directly on the number 37. A look at the offenses shows that the Colts will still be without Peyton Manning. After backup Jim Sorgi are Jared Lorenzen, Quinn Gray (and Adam Tafarlis?) - not exactly a quartet which will keep opposing defensive coordinators awake at night. The Falcons rotation of Chris Redman, Joey Harrington, Matt Ryan and D.J. Shockley isn't too intimidating either! We don't know much about Atlanta coach Mike Smith's preseason tendencies yet, as this is his first season. We do know that Smith, a former defensive coordinator, was pleased with his team's physical play last week though. He was quoted as saying: "There were a number of positive things. One thing that I thought was most positive was that we were very physical. We played against a very physical team and I thought we matched their physicality..." The Falcons picked up more than 100 (115 on 24 carries) yards on the ground last week. I expect another relatively heavy dose of run plays for their home opener. We also know that Dungy's Colts haven't typically scored too well in their recent preseason road games. They managed 20 last week at Carolina. That was a lot for them though. In the Hall of Fame game, which was played at a neutreal site - Fawcett Stadium in Canton, they scored 16. In their previous five preseason road games, they scored 0, 27, 17, 10 and six points. That's an average of just 12 points per game. Not surprisingly, four of those five games fell below the total. A look back at the last two seasons shows that the Colts played well defensively in their third preseason game, allowing 10 and 14 points. Naturally, Dungy likes the fact that his team improved so much defensively since the end of the 2006 season - before that the Colts were always poor on that side of the ball. After giving up a relatively large number of points in the first two games, I expect an emphasis to be placed on improving on that side of the ball. As already mentioned, the line move has given us some added value and look for the final combined score to be lower than most are expecting. *Non-Conference TOM
RAMS
I believe the 'situation' strongly favors the Rams here, as this should be a case where one team "wants to win" more than the other. While the line has already moved early in the week, we're still getting a very reasonable number, due to the fact that the Chargers were strong again last year and due to the fact that the Rams were not. Additional value has been created by the fact that the Chargers won convincingly last week while the Rams got blown out. Those results only reinforced the idea that the Chargers are a strong team and that the Rams have problems. Naturally, that's given St Louis plenty of motivation. Rams coach Scott Linehan has been quoted as saying that he plans to "play a significant amount with our starting unit." He called the game "very important," stating: "I don't discount the importance of any game, preseason or not. There's not a whole lot of good that comes out of losing a game." Part of the reason San Diego was successful last week was that they played many of their starters (minus Tomlinson who never plays in the preseason and Gates who is banged up) more playing time than is normal for teams in the opening week of preseasons. Norv Turner commented: "Normally in the preseason you play the starters a quarter in the first game and a half the second. I am flipping it a little bit." He also noted how he'd "continue to evaluate young talent." It doesn't take much "reading the lines" to see that we won't see all that much of Rivers and other starters. The Chargers came here last preseason, also in Week 2, and handed the Rams a 30-13 loss. The Rams won their only other 2007 home preseason game and that was by far the worst of their two preseason losses. As stated, Linehan know it's important to establish a winning attitude here. He also knows that the Rams need to convince the home fans that they should support this team and that there is hope for 2008. Look for Linehan to have his team highly motivated here as they go all out to convincingly avenge last season's defeat. *Situational GOM
Fast Eddie Sports
20* Indianaoplis Colts
Rocketman
St Louis @ Cincinnati
Play On:1* St Louis -110
St Louis is 14-5 this year when playing on Saturday. St Louis is 10-3 on the road this year when the money line is -100 to -125. Cincinnati is 3-11 in August this year. St Louis bullpen has a 3.59 ERA on the road this season. Cincinnati is scoring only 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Harang is 3-12 with a 5.34 ERA in all starts this year and 0-2 with a 9.98 ERA his last 3 starts. Pineiro is 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll play St Louis tonight
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
92% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL WINNER
Atlanta w/Hampton -135
Northcoast
3-* San Fran +1-
3* Chicago-1
3* Atlanta -2- or 3
3* Arz/KC over 35
Beat your Bookie
MLB
100 Minn
50 Det
50 Yankees
NFL
100 Atl
50 SF
Charlies Sports
NFL
Miami / Jacksonville under 34½ (500*)
Indy +3 (30*)
Seattle pk (20*)
San Diego +3 (20*)
Baltimore -1½ (10*)
Kansas City -2 (10*) free play
Matty O'Shea
NYJ / WAS Over 35.5
Similar to the preseason debut for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, the Jets will want to make sure new QB Brett Favre makes a positive offensive impact in his first start. Plus, New York's depth at the position just got a lot deeper, which means we will be seeing Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff battle it out for the backup job deep into this game. For the Redskins, it has been announced that rookie Colt Brennan will start the fourth quarter and finish the game. This is great for OVER bettors since Brennan will look to make another good impression in mop-up duty against an even weaker defense. Bet the OVER as my Double Dime NFL Preseason Total Play O' the Week.
Vegas Sports Experts
The VSE NFL Power Play for Saturday is:
10* Take Minnesota (+2) over Baltimore (NFL Power Play)
Minnesota
• 3-0 ATS in pre-season as a road underdog of 7 points or less
• 3-0 ATS in pre-season road games when the total is 35 points or less
• 2-0 SU & ATS in pre-season vs. AFC North Opponents
• 2-0 SU & ATS in pre-season coming off a home loss
5* Take San Diego (+3) over St. Louis (Bonus Play)
St. Louis
• 3-13 ATS in pre-season when playing on a Saturday
• 1-7 ATS in pre-season non-conference games
• 1-6 ATS in pre-season when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points
Tommy Rider
SFX 2.0 (-115) vs GBP
This line opened up at San Fran -3 and now they are catching a couple of points at home. I'm not sure why the public jumped on the Packers because they are backing the wrong side here. One of my contacts was actually up with the 49ers this week at their training camp and he said they are taking this game very seriously after getting embarrassed by the Raiders a week ago. J.T. O' Sullivan will play most of the first half but Shaun Hill and Alex Smith will both get a lot of playing time in the third and fourth quarters. On the other side, the Packers showed last week that they currently have the worst stable of quarterbacks in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is fine but Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn aren't ready to lead an NFL offense at this point in their careers. My contact told me that the 49ers worked on a lot of blitz packages this week in practice to get after the Packers pass-first offense. From what I'm hearing, the Pack are preparing more for next week while the 49ers want to make a statement in this game. I think San Fran wins this one easily at home tonight, so I'll gladly take the two points and go against the public.
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL CRUSHER TOTALS WINNER
Kansas City and NY Yankees UNDER 9.5
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies +137
Hernandez is 10-3 against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons and 12-5 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Washington is just 3-10 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season, 5-17 against the money line after 4 or more consecutive losses this season, and 9-23 against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. I have the Nats dropping their 9th straight game here.
Yankee Capper
3 Units - Royals/Yankees Over 9.5
3 Units - Los Angeles Angels -165
3 Units - Redskins/Jets Over 36
3 Units - Denver Broncos -2.5