Tim Trushel
Rams -3
Jeff Scott Sports
LA Angels -139 over CLEVELAND
The Angels are 16-5 in Lackeys last 21 starts during game 2 of a series and 22-7 in his last 29 road starts vs. a team with a losing record, while the Indians are 6-15 in their last 21 during game 2 of a series and 0-4 in Carmonas last 4 starts vs. American League West. The Angels are the best road team in the majors and took a tough loss last night at the hands of Cliff Lee, but today they will be facing a struggling Fausto Carmona and that should help them get back on track. Fausto comes in with a 5-4 record and a 4.91 ERA overall, but his last 5 starts have trully been horrible as he is 1-3 with a 12.00 ERA in those starts. Last night cliff lea helg the Halos to just 2 runs on 8 hits in his complete game effort, but LA's offense has still be hot as they are hitting .301 and scoring 6.5 rpg over their last 10 games. The Angels also hit .275 and score 5.5 rpg in day games on the year, while going 23-9 in those games. The Cleveland offense does come in hot in their own right, as they are hitting .304 and scoring 5.4 rpg in their last 7 games, but they do struggle in day games going 14-22, while hitting just .249 and scoring just 4 rpg in the process. John Lackey comes in with a 9-2 mark and a 3.15 ERA overall, including a 5-1 mark with a 2.73 ERA on the road, plus he is 3-0 with a 3.97 ERA in day games. The last time John faced the Tribe he allowed 6 ER in 5 innings on the way to a 14-11 Halo's win, so I look for one of the better road pitchers in the league to have a stronger showing in this one, while the Angels offense should hit Fausto early and often. The Angels are 28-11 in game 2 of a series this year, including a 12-4 mark if off a loss and they will bounce back here behind another strong showing from John Lackey.
MIINNESOTA RL (-110) over Seattle
The Twins have Taken 12-6 the last 16 home games in this series and in their last 6 home wins in this series they have won by 3.5 rpg. The Twins have really been on a roll at gome, going 23-6 in their last 29 games at the Metrodome, scoring 6.0 rpg and allowing just 3.o rpg in the process. When this team wins at home it has really been impresive of late. In their last 23 home wins the Twins have outscored their opponents by a 160-55 count, while allowing teams 3 runs or less in 17 of the 23 wins. That's home domination at it's best. Minnesota is 42-22 at home overall, scoring 5-2 rpg in the process, while they also hit lefties well, with a .278 BA and a scoring average of 5.3 rpg. Scott Baker gets the ball for the Twins and he has been solid this year, going 7-3 with a 3.78 ERA, including a 3-1 mark with 2.83 ERA at home. Minnesota has outscored teams by 1.5 rpg in his starts overall, including 1.76 rpg in his 5ome starts. Scott has a really good .250 OBP against and 0.97 WHIP in his home starts, meaning he does put a lot of runners one base. Not good for a Seattle squad that has a .257 BA and a .313 OBP on the road. Seattle also hits just .258 and scores just 3.7 rpg in day games, plkus they hit just .263 and score just 4 rpg vs righty starters on the year. Ryan Rowland-Smith is making just his 4th start on the year and his 1st on the road. Ryan is 0-0 with a 5.02 ERA in his 3 starts on the year. The Twins are just too hot right now, at home, and it's crazy to think that this struggling M's squad can keep it close, especially with a pitchier making just his 1st start on the road and with a Single A type offense. Last night the Twins won 9-3 and you can expect a similar result today.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY YANKS RL (-105) over Kansas City
Investment Playmakers
20* Afternoon American League Play of the Day
Angels
David Chan
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Over
Play on Los Angeles vs. Cleveland 'over' to win one unit. A quick glance at Fausto Carmona's last four starts, all since coming off the disabled list, tell you all you need to know about his stuff right now. Those four games have produced 15, 13, 12, and 21 total runs, nothing anywhere close to today's posted total of 8.5 runs.
John Lackey displays a similar trend. His last six starts have resulted in 21, 14, 25, 8, 23, and 15 total runs. That 'eight' came in a playoff-like atmosphere at Fenway Park, something we won't be treated to at Progressive Field this afternoon.
Both teams check in with batting averages over .300 over their last 10 games, the Angels at .301 and the Indians at .302. The Angels are averaging 6.5 runs per game over that stretch, while the Indians are putting up 5.4 rpg. Cleveland didn't start hitting until the start of August and that has created quite a bias in the eyes of oddsmakers and bettors alike.
The Angels should be eager to come out swinging today after being held to just two runs last night. They've now lost back-to-back games and that should put them in a focused frame of mind on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Indians are confident after taking down the A.L.'s best team last night, and as I mentioned, continue to see the ball well.
We don't necessarily have an 'over' ump behind home plate today, but Rob Drake fits our purposes just fine. His games have averaged over nine runs this season, even if his o/u record stands at 14-15.
With neither bullpen in strong current form, this one has the possibility of breaking open right up until the ninth inning. I'll call it 6-4 either way. Best of luck, DC.
DAVE MALINSKY
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Los Angeles Angels 4*
At the start of the season, a John Lackey vs. Fausto Carmona, Angels/Indians matchup would have looked like a beauty. Instead we have a Angel team, a starting pitcher, and a bullpen that holds huge advantages over their Cleveland counterparts. Yet the marketplace has not priced the setting properly, largely because there is still a refusal to believe just how far Carmona has fallen from that special 19-8/3.06 of 2007.
You can throw those past numbers out. In fact, even the mediocre 4.91 ERA that Carmona sports this season does not show just how much he has struggled. A 1.64 WHIP, and a precipitous ratio of 52 walks vs. 35 strikeouts is a story of a bad pitcher. And since coming back from the DL he has been even worse, with 24 runs allowed (22 earned) in just 19 innings, again with more walks than strikeouts. He is overmatched vs. this lineup, which features a lot of low-ball hitters that can drive his sinker the other way, and that will also mean an early appearance from a weak Cleveland bullpen. Guys throwing as poorly as Carmona do not simply snap their fingers and correct.
There are no such issues for Lackey, who sports a sharp 5-1/2.73 on the road, and will also bring a chip on his shoulder after being dinged around by the Indians in a game that he still managed to win at home on July 23rd. There is no particular reason to fear what happened that day - in only his second start since the All Star break, and sandwiched between Home and Away starts vs. the Red Sox, he did not bring his ‘A’ game. It was also a day with an atmosphere that greatly favored the hitters, with the Angels eventually winning 14-11. Off of their Friday loss there is no chance of Lackey taking the Indians lightly this time, and with the far superior bullpen also bringing the key arms rested and ready the latter stages show major edges to the visitors as well.
THE MILLER GROUP
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
PICK: San Francisco 49ers
As good as the Packers first-team offense looked last week, we can't back them here, knowing that we'll see a pair of true rookies take the field for the better part of three quarters in Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn. Neither could move the offense last week, and that's unlikely to change against a tough 49ers defense. San Francisco is in desperate need of a win after that ugly effort last week, and they'll get it tonight.
San Francisco's offense was non-existent in Oakland last Saturday, and while it isn't likely to improve a great deal in just a week, we do expect them to score enough to get by the Packers. There's a real QB competition going on right now in Niners camp, with Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and J.T. O'Sullivan all battling for the job. What they lack in talent, perhaps they can make up for in drive and determination on Saturday. The reality is, we should only need a couple of scores to cash this ticket.
Mike Nolan has been a strong preseason coach, leading the Niners to an 8-3-1 ATS record over the last three years heading into '08. He knows the importance of this game, as it will be the first viewing for a group of fans that is quickly losing confidence in the direction this team is headed. With a tough matchup at Soldier Field on deck next week, this is the time to bag a victory.
Last Monday was certainly Green Bay's game to win as they tried to put the whole Favre saga behind them. While it wasn't a poor effort on the whole, the Packers just didn't do enough from the second quarter on to make us believe they can go out on the road and win a game less than a week later. The Niners win this one ugly. Take San Francisco (3*).
STEPHEN NOVER
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Getting Roy Halladay at this price versus Paul Byrd puts me on Toronto.
Halladay has the best ERA (1.93) in the American League since June 30. He's a proven elite winner. Byrd is a proven innings-eater type who just happens to be on a hot roll.
Byrd is 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts. He's been pitching way above his head. This is his first start for Boston, so there's a lot of pressure and unfamiliarity.
The Blue Jays are playing well, winning seven of their last 10 games and seven of their past 10 on the road. They've also defeated the Red Sox in eight of their past 10 meetings.
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
5000 UNIT COMPUTER CRUSHER RUN LINE WINNER
Detroit w/Verlander -1.5
LARRY NESS
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (11-5 in MLB since June 17)
The D'backs beat the Astros 12-2 last night, as Brandon Webb (18-4, 2.95 ERA) picked up his major league-leading 18th win. The D'backs remained in a first-place tie with the red-hot Dodgers, while the Astros had their season-high eight-game win streak snapped (also ended a seven-game home winning streak). In tonight's game, the pitching matchup is Yusmeiro Petit (1-3, 3.12 ERA) and Brandon Backe (7-11, 5.14 ERA). Petit's only been around since '06, when he made 15 appearances (one start) with the Marlins, going 1-1 with a 9.57 ERA. He was with the D'backs last year and improved his ERA to 4.58 (he went 3-4) in 14 appearances, including 10 starts (team was 4-6). In '07, he began the year in the bullpen but was sent to the minors in late April. He returned in late May and has 13 overall appearances in '08, including four starts. This will be his THIRD straight start in August and he's lost the first two, including allowing five hits and three ERs (five innings) in a 4-2 loss at LA (his lone road start of the year). Backe made a solid impression for the Astros in '04 and '05, going 15-11, with the team going a very impressive 16-3 in his regular season home starts in those two seasons. He could never stay healthy in '06 and '07 but this year has already made 25 starts. He hasn't done very well away from home (team is 3-11) but he has been OK at home, with the team going 7-4 (4.59 ERA). Backe's sure no Oswalt but let's NOT forget that the Astros are 16-5 over their last 21 games, averaging 5.95 RPG. Let's also not forget that while the D'backs are 63-59 overall, they are 31-16 (.660) vs NL West opponents but just 32-43 (.427) against the rest of MLB! With the unproven and basically untested Petit on the mound, taking the Astros in this one (at THIS price), is a bargain! Oddsmaker's Error on the Hou Astros.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (won 12 of L17 / 38-22 since May 26)
The Brewers had won eight straight games, having outscored opponents 49-12 but lost at San Diego on Thursday afternoon, 3-2. They followed that with a 5-3 loss in LA last night to the Dodgers and all of a sudden, the Brewers don't look so invincible. It doesn't help that Ryan Braun (.300 / 30 HRs / 84 RBI) missed his SIXTH straight game for Milwaukee and isn't expected to be back until Sunday (maybe?). Meanwhile, the 5-3 win was LA's FIFTH straight (all at home), giving the Dodgers seven straight home wins (team is batting .338) wins and a major league-best 12-3 record at home since the All-Star break. The Brewers are familiar with losing at Dodger Stadium, as they've now dropped EIGHT of their nine visits and 18 of 23 games in LA since 2001. Dave Bush (7-9, 4.35 ERA) gets the start for Milwaukee and he's pitched very well since manager Ned Yost decided to scrap his ridiculous notion of using Bush and Seth McClung in a home-and-road platoon. Bush made four July starts (all at home) but was allowed to start in Cincy on August 5, allowing three hits and one ER in a 8-1 win. He then was back at home on Aug 11 vs the Nats, winning 7-1 (6.1 IP / 5 hits / 1 ER). However, let's note that the Reds are struggling and the Nats are MLB's worst team. One can't ignore Bush's road struggles these last two years, as in '06 he posted a road ERA of 5.38 as the Brewers went 4-13 and in '07, his road ERA was 6.14, as the Brewers went 6-10 . Things really haven't been much different in '08, as the Brewers are 9-3 in his home starts (3.15 ERA) but 2-7 in his road starts (6.31 ERA). As I mentioned in taking the Dodgers last night, Manny and Casey Blake (plus the return to health of Nomar) have given the Dodgers new 'life!' Derek Lowe (9-10, 4.11 ERA) gets the ball on Saturday for LA and while he's been streaky this year, he's allowed just 69 hits and 28 ERs over 13 starts (89 innings) here in Chavez Ravine (2.83 ERA) and that includes him posting a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts here. With the way the Dodgers are now hitting, winning for any team here in Dodger Stadium will be a challenge. I don't see a traditionally poor road pitcher like Dave Bush being up to that challenge. Las Vegas Insider on the LA Dodgers.
Tony Stoffo
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Over
With the lousy offensive showing that the Dolphins produced last week against the Buccaneers the odds makers have posted a low total for tonight's match up against Jacksonville. With the Jaguars being one of my biggest money makers of the preseason with 10 of their last 13 games going over the total as head coach Jack Del Rio opens things up offensively as they work on improving their passing game during the preseason I see this game easily going over the posted total. Plus add in the fact that Chad Pennington and the Dolphins first unit will play at least a half for tonight, and you can see how this game easily flies over tonight's listed total here.
AJ Apollo
5* Miami Dolphins +4
3* San Francisco ML
3* Atlanta -2.5
LT Profits
2* Pirates/Mets Under 9.5
2* Reds/Cardinals Under 9.5
2* San Diego
3* Arizona +2
2* Minnesota +1.5
2* Jaguars/Dolphins Over 34.5
Oscarxena Sports
Baltimore/Detroit Under 10 +1.02 (4 Unit Play)
Chicago/Florida Over 9 +1.02 (3 Unit Play)
LA Angels/Cleveland Over 8 1/2 -1.08 (3 Unit Play)
Texas +1.09 (3 Unit Play)
Dallas +3 (3.5 Unit Play)
Bob Akmens
4* Skins/Jets Over 35.5
4* Minnesota +1.5
Sports Pro Unlimited
POD 15-0 run
31-12 run 72% +92 units
5 LAD (POD)
5 Col/Was Under
5 STL