SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (20-15) at San Francisco (18-17)
Randy Johnson (3-3, 5.89 ERA) goes after career victory No. 299 when he takes the mound for the Giants, who continue a four-game weekend series with the streaking Mets and Johan Santana (4-2, 0.78) in a battle of former Cy Young winners at AT&T Park.
After taking Thursday’s series opener 7-4, New York rallied for an 8-6 victory against Tim Lincecum and the Giants on Friday. The Mets are on a 10-2 spurt, which includes four straight road wins. Jerry Manual’s club is on additional hot streaks of 12-3 against N.L. West clubs, 5-1 versus winning teams and 5-1 when playing on Saturday.
San Francisco has now dropped three in a row – all at home – but remains on a 15-9 run, including 9-5 at AT&T Park. The Giants are still also on upticks of 12-6 against the N.L. East and 4-1 versus left-handed starters.
The Mets have dominated this rivalry the last two-plus years, winning 11 of the last 13 battles, including the last seven in a row. New York, which has taken two of three in San Francisco each of the last three seasons, has also won six of its last seven at AT&T Park.
Johnson picked up his 298th career victory in Tuesday’s 11-7 defeat of Washington, despite allowing four runs (three home runs) in just five innings of work. San Francisco is 4-1 in Johnson’s last five starts, including 3-0 at home, where the Big Unit is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his first season with the Giants.
Santana is coming off yet another outstanding start, as he gave up two unearned runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Braves on Tuesday, but suffered an 8-3 defeat as the veteran lefty continued to get little run support. In fact, Santana has allowed just four earned runs this season, but New York has scored a total of 15 runs in his seven outings. Despite the loss to Atlanta, the Mets are still 14-4 in Santana’s last 18 trips to the hill, including 6-1 in his last seven on the highway. Santana is 1-1 with a 0.71 ERA in two road efforts in 2009.
Johnson is 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA in 15 career starts against New York, while Santana is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Giants.
New York carries “over” trends of 8-1 overall (3-0 last three), 5-1-1 on the road, 5-0 against southpaw starters and 5-0-1 versus the N.L. West. However, with Santana on the hill, the “under” is on stretches of 7-1 overall, 5-2 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday. Meanwhile, San Francisco has topped the total in five of its last six overall (all at home), and the over is 12-5-1 in its last 18 home games against lefty starters. However, the Giants’ last four Saturday affairs have stayed low.
Lastly, the over is on a 6-2 roll in this series, with the last five head-to-head clashes at AT&T Park topping the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (18-16) at Texas (21-14)
Angels ace John Lackey (12-5, 3.75 in 2008) is slated to make his 2009 debut when he pitches opposite the Rangers’ Vicente Padilla (5-2, 4.97) in the middle game of this three-game series at Rangers Ballpark.
Los Angeles is playing solid ball, going 9-2 in its last 11 games, including three straight road wins, and it is 6-1 in its last seven against right-handed starters.
Texas built a 10-3 lead on the Angels on Friday and held on for a 10-8 victory, its fifth consecutive win. The Rangers have surged to the top of the A.L. West standings by winning 11 of 13, going 6-0 at home during this stretch. They’re also 7-1 in their last eight against A.L. West rivals.
The Angels are still 8-4 in the last 12 meetings with the Rangers, and last night’s defeat ended their four-game winning streak in Texas.
Lackey has been on the shelf for six weeks because of elbow inflammation in his right (pitching) elbow. The last time the veteran was on the mound in a big-league contest, he gave up two runs in seven innings of a 3-2 loss at Boston in Game 4 of the American League Divisional Series, a defeat that ended the Angels’ season. Including two postseason games against the Red Sox, L.A. lost six of Lackey’s last seven starts in 2008. However, they’re 20-9 in his last 29 outings on the road, 20-7 in his last 27 against divisional rivals and 6-2 in his last eight trips to the mound on Saturday.
Lackey went 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 12 road starts last season, as opposed to 5-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 12 home outings. He’s just 10-10 with a 5.73 ERA in 27 career starts against the Rangers (5-5, 6.00 ERA in 14 starts in Texas). Last year, he faced the Rangers four times, going 1-2 with a 9.31 ERA.
Padilla has been terrific in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA (four earned runs allowed in 21 innings), including Monday’s 7-1 victory over the White Sox in which the right-hander yielded just one run and one hit in seven innings. Despite that strong effort, Padilla is just 1-2 with a hefty 8.10 ERA in four home starts this season. He’s also 5-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his career against Los Angeles.
The Rangers are 4-1 in Padilla’s last five starts overall and 11-3 in his last 14 against the A.L. West, but they’ve dropped five of his last seven outings at home, eight of his last 10 on Saturday and four of his last five home starts versus the Halos.
With Lackey pitching, the under is on runs of 7-3 overall and 20-7-3 when he works on the road, but the over is 7-3-1 in his last 11 starts against the Rangers and 5-2-1 in his last eight outings in Texas. Also, the over is 37-18-2 in Padilla’s last 57 starts overall, 11-5 in his last 16 at home and 14-6-1 in his last 21 against the A.L. West.
The under is on streaks of 6-2 for the Angles overall (all against right-handed starters), 5-2 for Texas overall and 6-3 for Texas at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
John Ryan
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 30-11 making 26.2 units since 2003. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. SF is a solid 119-102 (+49.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better since 1997. Here again, this angle exemplifies the principals of the AiS neural network methodology. It is just 17 games over 500 win percentage, but has made 49.3 units in profits. Good luck
Play on: San Francisco
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
The White Sox just aren't hitting right now. Worse yet, Friday's 8-3 loss to Toronto was their seventh straight North of the Border and things don't look to get much better Saturday with Bartolo Colon on the bump. In three road starts this year, Colon has zero wins and a 7.90 ERA. He's not likely to get much support from a Chicago offense that has scored four runs or less in six of its last seven games. Very modest price to lay with a quality Blue Jays team here.
Play on: Toronto
Cajun Sports
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Colorado Rockies
PNC Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the host Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting Colorado Rockies. We went against this Rockies team on Friday with our complimentary selection and the Pirates led 1 to 0 in the top of the ninth when the Rockies plated three runs and got the win 3 to 1. On Saturday we will back Colorado with Aaron Cook on the bump and his 2-1 W/L record and ERA of 5.03 on the season. Cook has produced a quality start 71.4 percent of the time and he also sees his ERA drop to 2.57 when he throws under the lights. The Rockies find themselves in several positive situations for tonight’s game they are 8-3 W/L their last eleven when Cook starts on the road versus a team with a losing record, 7-2 W/L their last nine as a road favorite, 4-1 W/L their last five as a favorite of -110 to -150 and finally we note they are 6-2 W/L their last eight versus Pittsburgh overall. Pittsburgh on the other hand is staring down a list of negatives including their starter Ian Snell who is 1-5 W/L on the year with an ERA of 4.50 which includes a 0-3 W/L record in his last three trips to the hill. Snell has only produced a quality start in 57.1 percent of his starts and also struggled at night with an 0-2 W/L record and an ERA of 9.00. The Pirates are 3-13 W/L their last sixteen overall, 18-42 W/L when installed as an underdog, 10-23 W/L as a home underdog and 3-12 W/L their last fifteen when facing a right-handed starter. When Snell takes the bump the Pirates are 16-35 W/L their last fifty-one as an underdog, 2-15 W/L when he is a home underdog, 1-5 W/L their last six following a loss in their previous game and 1-9 W/L when Snell is working on five days rest. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rockies win on Saturday by 2.7 runs over the Pirates and the Math Model Index has the Rockies cashing in with a 3.0 run advantage. The combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors suggest we lay the short price with the visitor as the Rockies take game two of this three-game set on Saturday night in the Steel City.
Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 8 Pittsburgh Pirates 5
Craig Trapp
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Over 9.5
Craig kept up his hot streak in his 5 star Best plays of day going 4-1 this week. Yesterday had Detroit m/l and they won by double digits. Unfortunately free play lost with the Reds unable to hold onto a late game lead. Today we get back on track with free TOTALS WINNER!!
Betting Trends
Over is 5-2 in Pavanos last 7 starts overall.
Over is 5-0 in Indians last 5 road games.
Over is 5-1-1 in Rays last 7 overall.
Over is 5-1-1 in Garzas last 7 home starts.
Over is 36-17-2 in Rays last 55 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Both of these teams rotations have been very disappointing this season. Pavano was a big offseason pickup for CLE and they thought he would be a quality #2 starter. But thus far he has been giving up a ton of runs. In fact the over has gone over in all but one of his 5 road starts. Even worse news for CLE is that TB bats have been on fire the last 5 games hitting over .312 batting average. Garza has been up and down this year but at home has been giving up way too many runs. So far this season the over is 3-1 in his home starts. Ton of hits and scoring in this match up!SCORE TB 7 - CLE 6
James Patrick
Indians vs. Rays
The Tribe has beaten up on the Rays with wins in 20 of 25 and we get a nice long shot in Carl Pavano here. Our Saturday Major League Baseball complimentary selection is Cleveland Indians.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Baltimore w/Hill vs Davies
Baltimore sends recently activated Rich Hill to the mound against struggling Kyle Davies and the Royals in Kansas City Saturday evening in Game Two of this weekend series. Hill makes his first start of the campaign anxious to make up for lost time from an elbow injury that has kept him sidelined. Meanwhile, Davies is 2-1 in his last three team starts despite a 5.77 ERA while issuing 9 walks against 6 strikeouts in those efforts. With that, look for s strong effort by Hill and the Birds here tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Over 8½
Both teams have had quiet bats of late.However the total at 8.5 is relatively low when considering the struggles of both starting pitchers home to road dichotomy in this game.For the Pirates they have I.Snell going tonight.In his home starts vs Colorado he has a 6.23 era while allowing 9 runs in just 13 innings of work,surrendering 19 hits in the process.Both of Snells home starts have gone over this year.For whatever reason the Pirates are an over team on Saturdays going over the total 38 of the last 52 times,including all 5 times this year.Colorado will have A.Cook going in this one and he has a 5.14 era in his lone start vs the Pirates.Look for the bats to awaken in this one.For the Free play go over the 8.5 runs in the Colorado-Pittsburgh game.
DAVE COKIN
CINCINNATI REDS / SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take CINCINNATI REDS
Edinson Volquez got knocked around in his last start, but the Reds righty should bounce back as he faces the Padres. San Diego managed to get a win on Friday night, but I expect Cincy to have their way with Josh Geer and I swould look for the Reds to even the series with the win tonight.
JIM FEIST
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / ATLANTA BRAVES
Take ATLANTA BRAVES
There's a reason that Arizona ace prospect Max Scherzer is 0-3 -- He's still learning his craft and the Diamondbacks have no offense. Arizona is in last place despite playing mostly home games. They just got swept at home by the Reds and have lost 9 of 11. Atlanta just finished an 8-game road trip, going 6-2. A good spot for the home team that is playing much better baseball. Play the Braves.
Rocketman
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Play: Boston
Boston is 21-14 on the season while Seattle comes in at 16-19 this year. Seattle is 3-10 this year in May. Boston is scoring 5.6 runs per game overall this year and 6 runs per game against left handed starters this season. Boston bullpen has a good 3.12 ERA overall this year and a 3.34 ERA on the road this season. Seattle is scoring only 3.4 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Garret Olson is making his first start his year and last year his last three starts resulted in three losses. Beckett is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA overall vs Seattle since 1997 while Olson is 0-4 with a 7.76 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Mets at SAN FRANCISCO
Time for a good old-fashioned RUN LINE play this Saturday, as we like Johan Santana to continue his stingy ways, and for the Big Unit Randy Johnson to continue his downhill slide - retire already Randy!
Santana has not allowed an earned run his last 2 trips to the bump, and has a lowly 0.78 ERA through his first 7 starts this season! Last year in his lone start against the Giants he worked 5 scoreless for the win.
It is hard for us to imagine the San Fran attack mustering more than 1 run off of the southpaw in this game.
That means that Randy Johnson is going to have to reach back into his days from yesteryear if he wishes to keep his club in this one, and while the Big Unit can still bring it for 3 or 4 frames, it is unlikely he can hold the fort much longer anymore with authority.
Johnson has allowed 11 runs in his last 11 innings of work, and his season ERA is quite close to 6.
Mets on the RUN LINE the call in this one.
4♦ METS RUN LINE
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers at FLORIDA -110
Nailed our FREE winner with the Marlins on Friday night as they got the home win over the Red Sox. Today we've got a comp baseball winner on the Marlins as they host the Dodgers.
This is a battle between two southpaws and we're playing the home team with Andrew Miller (0-1, 6.94 ERA) taking the mound for the first time since coming off the DL.
Florida lost Friday's matchup 6-4, and have now lost five in a row after finishing off a six-game roadie 2-4. The Dodgers lost four of five after Manny Ramirez got suspended, but now they have won three in a row, all on the highway.
The Marlins won three of the last four over the Dodgers last season and will get this one today to even up the series.
Eric Milton is making his first start as a Dodger, and it's his first start in more than two years. but back in 2007, he didn't fare well for the Reds as they lost his last six starts of that season. And teams he's played for have lost five of his last six starts against Florida.
Miller hasn't pitched at home since June of last year, making five straight road starts.
Florida has gone 9-4 against lefties in its last 13 outings. Meanwhile the Dodgers are just 1-4 as a 'dog, 4-13 against N.L. East foes and 4-9 on the road against teams with a losing record. Play the Marlins at home in this one.
2♦ FLORIDA
Jeff Benton
Colorado -115 at PITTSBURGH
This one’s mostly about Colorado starting pitcher Aaron Cook, who has righted his season after a shaky beginning. Cook has delivered four consecutive quality starts, allowing a total of eight earned runs in 27 innings (2.67 ERA), including back-to-back strong outings against the Padres (one run allowed in eight innings) and Florida (one earned run allowed in six innings).
Today, Cook faces a Pirates lineup that has stopped hitting (three runs scored or fewer in five of its last eight games). More importantly, Pittsburgh has stopped winning, losing 14 of its last 17 games, including six of its last nine at home, including Friday’s 3-1 loss in which the Bucs blew a 1-0 ninth-inning lead. The Pirates also struggle to post victories when Ian Snell is pitching, going 1-6 in his seven starts this season, including 0-4 in his last four outings. And if you take away the one victory – a 10-0 home win over Atlanta – the Pirates have scored a grand total of 15 runs in his six losses (or 2.5 per game). They’ve also been held to a single run in each of their last two games.
The Rockies are 3-1 in Cook’s four career starts against Pittsburgh, including a pair of wins last July by scores of 11-3 and 7-4, and the right-hander has pitched at least six innings in all four of his appearances against the Pirates. Throw in the fact that this game will be played under the lights – Cook has a 2.57 ERA in two night games, while Snell has a 9.00 ERA in three night starts – and I’ll take a shot with the better team, the better starting pitcher and the vastly superior bullpen at a cheap price.
4♦ COLORADO
Karl Garrett
Cleveland at TAMPA BAY
This afternoon in the American League, the ball has been bouncy all over Tropicana Field thus far this weekend, as Thursday's Tribe-Rays game saw a combined 18 runs cross the plate, and last night's second round of this four game set saw 15 combined runs come home.
That makes it 2-for-2 in the OVER column this weekend, and makes it 4 of 5 OVER the total for the Indians their last 5 times on the diamond.
Tampa Bay meanwhile has been HIGH their last 4 games, and are on a 6-1-1 OVER clip their last 8.
Should anything change today?
G-Man don't think so, as Carl Pavano is long overdue for a torch job, while the Indians have Matt Garza's number.
Pavano has won 3 straight starts, but his ERA for the season is still well over 6, while Garza's 2 starts last year against Cleveland yielded 11 runs in just 10 innings of work.
The batters have their groove on right now for both teams, and the OVER is looking mighty tasty to me late day Saturday.
3♦ OVER