Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Orioles in Kansas City.
I never terribly mind backing a pitcher who is making hsi first start with a new team and that is the situation today with Rich Hill. The former Cubs lefthander has pretty good stuff but he just did not pitch well in the end of his run in Chicago. The guy was a little afraid at times and walked too many guys but I still like the lefty and believe this fresh new start will be just what the Doctor ordered.
Kyle Davies has always had quality stuff and has had a successful start to this season but I still do not trust the former Brave righty and will take some money back here for sure. It's not a ton granted but it is something and worth it in my opinion.
The Orioles are far from being very good but there is an upside there with Roberts, Jones, Markakis and a few others and I do expect some runs to cross the plate for the visitors. They are not up against Zach Greinke once again and should feel a lot looser and ready to rock and roll.
Kansas City is a solid squad that may be in the Divisional race for the long run but they are still not very good without their stud in Greinke on the hill and in the end today this is a very winnable game for Baltimore and at this solid plus money price why the heck not!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
Man, the Twins started out like they were going to get the job done in New York, but of course they can’t do enough as the Yankees pull out that game and hand us a loss in this spot.
That’s fine as we’re getting on the winning track today as we’re taking the Philadelphia Phillies on the road at the Washington Nationals.
After losing two straight games and 4 of 5, the Phillies got back on the winning side as they beat up the Nats 10-6 in Game 1 of this series yesterday.
Including yesterday’s win Philly has taken 3 of its last 4 against the Nats and going back to last year the Phillies are 7-2 their last 9 against Washington and are 15-5 their last 20 against the Nationals.
Consider, too, Nationals scheduled starter Scott Olsen has had his share of struggles this season. In his 7 starts this year Washington is 1-5 with one game being suspended.
Today, Olsen will struggle again as the Phillies beat up on Washington. Take Philly on the road in this one today.
3♦ PHILLIES
RatedPicks
Cleveland Indians +155
Looking at this on paper, this line is to far out of whack. Sure Garza for TB is a STUD at home, with an ERA a drop under 2, and a WHIP .75. BUT thats all that TB has going for them, it ends there. They are 3-11 when Garza starts, and are only 6-8 at home. The Indians have a Stud of their own to face off against in Carl Pavano who is 3-0 in his last starts, and his team is averaging 9+ runs a game ON THE ROAD when he pitches on the road. Pavano has only given up 8 runs TOTAL in his last 3 games, against the White Sox, Tigers and Red Sox, and everyone knows those teams can explode runs in any game.Pavano is 2-0 against the Rays, while on the Flip Side Garza is 0-2.Garzas bullpen has a 9.69 ERA, in only 13 innings pitched, giving up 14 runs and 5 home Runs, with 7 Strike Outs and 5 Walks. Pavano's bullpen counters with a 7.66 ERA, giving up only 19 runs in 22 innings, with 5 home runs, 22 Strike Outs and 9 walks.Garza in his last starts against the Indians has given up an average of 6 runs per game.Pavano has only given up 4 to the Rays.
Colorado Rockies RUN LINE +1.55
Aaron Cook. That should all that needs to be said when he faces the Pirates. He always gets support from all aspects of his team when he faces the Pirates. From his Offense giving him close to 7 runs per game, to his bullpen posting an ERA of 0.89 when he faces the Pirates. Facing off against Ian Snell who's Pirates are only 1-6 in his last 7 starts. This Major Leaguer has NEVER had a winning season in MLB, and his last 2 games he has an ERA just a little over 10. Expect Cook to shut out the Pirates, and for the Rockies to exploit Snell early and often. Take the Run Line in this contest, as Colorado takes it easily on the road.
Red Sox Run Line +105
Red Sox/Mariners OVER 10 -110
These 2 teams can score runs pretty much at will, when either are facing a lack-luster pitcher. The Red Sox have this match-up tonight, when they go against in Garret Olson. We look for Olson to get hammered early and often. Olson is WINLESS vs Boston in 7 starts, and posts a 7.76 ERA over 31 innings. Lets look at that for a moment, he had 7 starts and only pitched 31 innings. He only averages 4 innings before the bullpen takes over, which has been exploited recently for an 8.25 ERA the past 4 outings. Now Boston counters with Josh Beckett, who is back to his winning ways and has a bullpen pitching an ERA of just 1.15 over the last 4 starts. This one goes BIG, as the Red Sox gover BOTH the RUN LINE and the OVER!
Nick Parsons
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals UNDER 10
Orioles SP Rich J. Hill (elbow) will come off the DL and make his first start of the season Saturday at Kansas City and I expect him to toss a gem. Royals SP Kyle Davies gave up just one run on three hits in six-plus innings against the Angels on Sunday. It is the third time this season Davies has allowed three earned runs or less in at least six innings and ended up with a no-decision; expect him to be sharp again today. Baltimore has seen the total go under the posted number in 3 of 5 games in games played on a grass field while the Royals have seen it go under the posted number in 3 of 5 in the same situation; play on the UNDER
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on White Sox/Blue Jays OVER 10
I expect to see a lot of runs scored north of the border this afternoon. The Sox send Colon and his 7.90 road ERA to the hill and the Jays counter with Ray and his 6.00 ERA. Toronto averages 5.8 runs per game on the season and crushes righties for 6.2 runs per game. The White Sox lineup has not been as potent as expected yet, but it has actually produced better on the road, scoring 4.7 runs per. We saw 11 runs put on the board yesterday with 2 much better starters going in Danks and Cecil. The Over is 10-2 in the White Sox last 12 games as a road underdog, 21-7 in the Blue Jays last 28 vs. the American League Central, and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this series. Bet the Over.
Free Selection from Totals4U
Saturday's free selection: Philadelphia/Washington under 10 1/2 (Game 2)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
261 - 172 run 60 % ( 6-2 last 8 )
Sat Boston Red Sox
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(972) Detroit Tigers -$130
(Listing Porcello and Braden)
I look for the Tigers offense to keep rolling and the A's offense to keep
struggling. Lay the juice with Detroit again.
2009 Free Selections Record 71-61 (53.8%)
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8)
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to build on their 10-1 record in Adam Wainwright's last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record. St. Louis is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Cards favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145).
Game 901-902: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 16.194; Cubs (Wells) 14.984
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100); N/A
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.027; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.624
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over
Game 905-906: NY Mets at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.837; San Francisco (Johnson) 15.700
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+155); Over
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Milton) 14.848; Florida (Miller) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Under
Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Carpenter) 15.600; Washington (Cabrera) 14.238
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 911-912: Colorado at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 13.038; Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.330
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Under
Game 913-914: Arizona at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 15.187; Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.010
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Over
Game 915-916: Cincinnati at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.639; San Diego (Geer) 14.789
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under
Game 917-918: Minnesota at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.673; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.179
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-185); Under
Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Colon) 14.531; Toronto (Ray) 14.957
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 14.362; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.036
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Over
Game 923-924: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 16.416; Texas (Padilla) 17.645
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Over
Game 925-926: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.682; Detroit (Porcello) 15.595
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Over
Game 927-928: Baltimore at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hill) 15.828; Kansas City (Davies) 14.108
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Under
Game 929-930: Boston at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.421; Seattle (Olson) 14.931
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under
Game 931-932: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Myers) 14.800; Washington (Olsen) 16.012
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+120); Over
Mr. A
Chicago Cubs -150
Boston Red Sox -150
LARRY NESS
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
Break up the Blue Jays! Toronto won easily last night over the White Sox, 8-3. The 24-14 Blue Jays own the AL's best record and lead the AL with a team BA of .289. The team's 221 runs (5.83 RPG) makes them MLB's highest scoring team. As for the White Sox, last year's AL Central champs are only 15-19 overall. The team's lineup has struggled all season, batting just .251 and scoring only 139 runs (4.09 per game). Chicago's lost NINE of its last 12, scoring just one run or less, FIVE times! What may be even worse for this matchup, the White Sox have now lost SEVEN consecutive games in Toronto, with Blue Jays pitching owning a 1.71 ERA while allowing the White Sox to bat just .157 as a team! What should change today? OK, Chicago will be facing a rookie right-hander in Robert Ray, who is making just his third career start. In his last outing, Ray gave up six runs (five earned) and 10 hits in 6.1 innings of a 6-1 loss to the Angels on May 7. However, Ray was hurt by some shaky defense in that game but at one point in the game, retired 11 of 12 batters. The way the White Sox have been hitting (or NOT hitting, as it were), Ray may be just fine. As for Chicago, the White Sox will counter with Bartolo Colon. They better hope he's better than he was last Sunday, when he allowed five ERs in just 4.2 innings of a 7-1 loss to Texas. Colon is 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA in 2009 and he longer even remotely resembles the pitcher who won the AL Cy Young award in 2005. Stick with the red-hot Jays.
ALEX SMART
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under 10
The LA Angels send one of their top hurlers right hander John Lackey(0-0, 0.00 ERA) out to the hill, after he missed the first 6 weeks of the season for the second straight year. Lackey's home state is Texas, and he will be motivated and fired up in this spot vs the Rangers. The Halos starter, when on his game, is one of the top pitchers in MLB with a hard fastball, and big curve ball. Needless to say, the Rangers hitters will not be excited to see him on the mound. It must be noted that Lackey in limited action last season went 12-5 along with a stable 3.75 ERA. Meanwhile his Rangers pitching opponent Vicente Padilla(2-2, 4.97 ERA) is currently in top form after a slow start to his campaign. The veteran righty is off an impressive 7-1 victory over the White Sox last time out. That effort followed up his second straight big time effort, as is evident by allowing one or zero hits in back-to-back starts. Despite of both teams sporting viable offenses, Im betting on a pitchers duel. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 7-0 in Angels last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 10-1 in Lackeys last 11 starts as a road underdog. Under is 9-3 in Rangers last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 . Under is 21-8-2 in umpire Bob Davidsons last 31 games behind home plate.
Tom Freese
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Boston is 6-1 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters and they are 55-25 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Red Sox are 10-4 with Beckett vs. losing teams and they are 15-6 their last 21 games as favorites. Seattle starter Garrett Olson has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts vs. the Red Sox. The Mariners are 16-38 their last 54 games vs righty starters and they are 17-49 after scoring 5 or more runs. PLAY ON BOSTON -(Beckett vs. Olson)
Jimmy The Moose
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Over
With tonight's two starting pitchers we have seen more unders than overs but both teams are swing the bats a lot better of late. The A's have played the over in 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 games. Detroit has played over the total in their last 3 games. The over is 5-1-1 in the Tigers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. THe over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games overall. Play the over.
LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays -120
The Toronto Blue Jays currently own the best record in the American League right now, and we will gladly back them at this modest price at home vs. a sub-.500 team like the Chicago White Sox.
Not only are the Blue Jays 24-14 for the season, but they have also dominated the White Sox, as they are now 11-2 in their last 13 meetings with them after an 8-3 Toronto win here last night. Meanwhile, Chicago is a dismal 1-7 in their last eight road games.
Of course, the reason for this cheap line is that Robert Ray is taking this start for the Jays. Now Ray is hardly a world-beater, but he was not terrible in his only home start, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings, and the fact that the bullpen will be called on fairly early here is actually an advantage for Toronto. This is because the Jays pen ranks sixth in the majors with a 3.55 ERA.
The White Sox counter with Bartolo Colon, and after showing some promise, he regressed to his form of recent seasons in his last start, allowing five earned runs in 4.2 innings vs. the Texas Rangers. We feel that represents the proper level for Colon at this stage of his career, especially since all of his pitches are thrown at virtually the same speed, so do not look for a bounce-back effort today.
Look for the Blue Jays to continue their hot start.
Pick: Blue Jays -120
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -106
The Cubs have won 4 of 5 against Houston this season and I'll grab them at an excellent price at home today. The Houston bats have been weak on the road this season and they never seem to give Oswalt much run support. Oswalt has struggled in the early going, and he is far from a Cub killer as the Astros are just 11-15 against Chicago with him starting in his career. Cubs rookie Randy Wells is very talented and I expect him to give the Astros lineup some fits since they have never seen him before. The Cubs have taken 7 of their last 8 at Wrigley and are 21-4 against the money line in home games in May over the last 2 seasons. Take the Cubs.
Dwayne Bryant
CIN (-130) vs SDP
The Reds have the edge in hitting/run production, starting pitching, and relief pitching. Cincy dropped the series opener last night after leading 3-1 in the 7th and they are 11-3 off a loss this season. I expect a bounce-back tonight, so I'll take the Reds with Volquez over the Padres and Geer for a half-unit.