SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (32-21) at L.A. Dodgers (38-19)
Hiroki Kuroda (1-1, 2.53 ERA) makes just this second start since Opening Day when he leads the Dodgers against the Phillies and Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.86) as this four-game series continues at Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles earned a come-from-behind 4-3 win Friday night, scoring two in the ninth off Phillies’ closer Brad Lidge to even this four-game set at one game apiece. Andre Ethier delivered a bases-loaded hit with two outs in the ninth for the game-winner, to make the Dodgers 10-1 in one-run games at home this season.
Philadelphia had a seven-game overall and five-game road winning streak halted with Friday’s stunning loss.. The Phillies still lead the major leagues with a 20-7 road record (12-3 in the last 15), and they’re on additional upswings of 56-27 overall, 36-17 on the highway, 17-7 against the N.L. West, 4-0 against right-handed starters, 15-5 on Saturdays, 37-15 versus winning teams.
The Dodgers are still just 4-4 in their last eight games and have been held to two runs or fewer in six of their last nine contests. Despite the recent slump, Los Angeles is still on upticks of 36-17 overall, 41-15 at Dodger Stadium, 5-1 against the N.L. East and 9-4 versus winning teams. Also, the Dodgers’ 21-7 home record is the best in the majors, as is their 38-19 overall mark.
Los Angeles has a 3-2 advantage the season series with Philadelphia, but the Phillies are 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head battles (playoffs included). However, Philadelphia is still just 3-7 in its last 10 games in Hollywood.
Blanton is 3-0 in his last three starts and 3-1 on the highway this season. Monday in San Diego he gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-3 Philadelphia victory. He pitched in Los Angeles twice last season, including once in the postseason, and allowed a combined seven runs on 16 hits in 10 inning of work as the Phillies lost the regular-season matchup 7-6 but won the playoff game 7-5. With Blanton on the mound, the Phillies are on streaks of 19-7 overall and 4-0 on the road.
Kuroda opened the season on April 6 by holding San Diego to one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-1 win, then went on the DL and re-emerged Monday and was sharp against the Diamondbacks, allowing two runs on three hits in five innings and striking out six in a 3-2 Dodgers’ loss. He faced the Phillies three times last season and looked good each time, allowing a combined four runs on nine hits in 19 innings of work as Los Angeles went 2-1. The Dodgers are 7-2 in Kuroda’s last nine outings dating to last season (4-1 in the last five at home).
The under for Philly is on streaks of 11-2-1 overall and 6-1-1 on the road, but the over is 10-6-2 in the Phillies’ last 18 against the N.L. West. For the Dodgers, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on Saturday, 5-1-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1 with Kuroda on the mound. However, even though the first two games of this series have stayed low, the over is still 10-4-2 in the last 16 series meetings in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (32-22) at Boston (32-23)
The Rangers continue their seven-game East Coast road trip when they send rookie Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33) to the mound for his third career big-league start against the Red Sox and Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65) in a battle of southpaws at Fenway Park.
Texas won Friday’s series-opener 5-1 behind the pitching of Kevin Millwood who allowed just one run in seven innings. The Rangers evened their record at 2-2 on the trip and snapped a four-game Red Sox winning streak.
Boston remains on runs of 81-36 at home, 27-12 when playing on grass, 19-8 against teams with a winning record and 12-4 versus left-handed starters. Meanwhile, Texas is on impressive runs of 22-11 overall, 5-1 on Saturday and 4-1 against southpaw starters, but they’re 19-39 in their last 58 contests on the highway versus lefties.
The Red Sox dominated Texas last year, winning nine of 10 head-to-head meetings, and they’ve won eight of the last nine meetings inside Fenway Park. Going back further, Boston is still 25-10 in the last 35 overall against Texas and 34-10 in the last 44 clashes at Fenway.
Holland was roughed up in his last start, giving up six runs (five earned) in five innings of a 9-2 loss to the Yankees back on May 27. In his only road outing, Holland held the Astros to three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 victory two weeks ago.
Lester was dominant in his start on Sunday in Toronto, allowing one run and three hits while striking out 12 in six innings of an 8-2 win. He faced the Rangers twice last season with Boston coming out on top both times as he allowed three runs in each outing. Boston is 41-20 in Lester’s last 61 starts overall and 23-5 in his last 28 home efforts, but the Sox have lost four of Lester’s last five Saturday outings.
Texas carries “under” trends of 18-7-1 overall, 10-3 on the road, 5-1 against lefty starters and 6-2 on Saturday. Similarly, the Red Sox have stayed low in eight their last 10 overall and six of eight at home, but the over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 Saturday contests and 5-0 in Lester’s last five on Saturday. On the flip side, four of the last six Rangers-Red Sox clashes at Fenway have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Cajun Sports
Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Colorado took game one of this four-game set between the Rockies and the Cardinals at Bush Stadium on Friday evening 11 to 4. The Cards will be looking to rebound from a poor performance sending Todd Wellemeyer to the bump with his 5-5 W/L record with an ERA of 5.05. His record at home is 2-4 W/L but the Cards have managed to win one more of his starts for a record of 3-4 W/L on the year. St. Louis is 19-11 W/L at Bush this season for +4.5 units and playing at night the Cards are 20-13 W/L for +4.6 units. Wellemeyer is 2-0 W/L with an ERA of 3.60 for a profit of +2.6 units versus the Colorado Rockies. Colorado will send Aaron Cook to the hill with a road record of 1-2 W/L with an ERA of 5.81 but the team record in his six starts on the highway is 1-5 W/L. The news doesn’t get any better when he faces the Cardinals Cook is 0-4 W/L with an ERA of 6.56 and his team is 0-6 W/L for -7.1 units. Colorado is 4-14 (-11.4) versus National League teams allowing 4.3 or less runs per game this season. We are backing the host as the Cardinals grab game two and even the series on Saturday at Bush Stadium in St. Louis.
Graded Selection: 2* St. Louis Cardinals 5 Colorado Rockies 3
Frank Jordan
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee got an outstanding outing from Gallardo who went 8 strong scattering 2 hits and working around 4 walks. Atlanta had 2 hits and 2 errors as they were dominated in this one. On Saturday Atlanta will turn to Javier Vazquez to right the ship and he will along with Nate McClouth has his first big game in Atlanta. Play Atlanta
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Atlanta w/Vazquez
When the Braves host the Brewers in Game Two of this three-game series tonight they will send Javier Vazquez to the mound knowing he is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last six home starts against Milwaukee. With Vazquez in commanding KW form with 8 walks and 44 strikeouts in his last five home starts, and Milwaukee's Jeff Suppan 5-13 in his last 18 road starts in June, look for Atlanta to imporve to 6-2 lifetime against Suppan here tonight.
Jeff Benton
Cleveland at CHICAGO -135
For Saturday’s free play on the diamond, we’ll lay the chalk with the White Sox at home against the Indians.
This is more or less a play on Chicago starter Gavin Floyd, who has really turned his season around in the last two weeks. After starting out 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA through his first eight starts, Floyd has been brilliant over his last three outings, giving up a combined five runs and 13 hits in 23 innings (1.96 ERA), with Chicago winning two of those three games, both at home (2-0 over Pittsburgh, 6-2 over Oakland).
As for Floyd’s opposition today – young lefty Jeremy Sowers – it’s been one poor start after another so far. Since being called up in early May, Sowers has made four appearances (three starts) and given up 13 runs on 17 hits in 14 innings, with the Indians losing all three of his starts by scores of 13-3, 7-4 and 5-2. In fact, going back to last year, the Tribe are 2-7 in Sowers’ last nine starts.
Among those seven defeats, two came against the White Sox (one this year, one last year), with Sowers allowing a combined nine runs in 9 1/3 innings. In fact, Sowers is 0-3 with a 6.87 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox, with Cleveland losing all four games.
Throw in the fact that Sowers is 5-12 with a 6.36 ERA in 25 career road starts, while Floyd is 11-8 with a 4.08 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field (3.34 ERA this season), and this is a no-brainer. Lay the cheap price with the ChiSox, who will get their bats going today after back-to-back shutout losses.
2♦ CHICAGO
Drew Gordon
Cleveland at CHI. WHITE SOX -135
Another solid Free Play winner with the Brewers (+110) over the Braves 4-0 last night! Now 8-2 run with my L10 Freebies, and I've got another winner on tap Saturday afternoon...
Looking for the White Sox to get back on track this afternoon, and they've got just the pitching match up to do it. Losers of 4 straight, Chicago's offense has all but dissipated of late, but they'll get just what the doctor ordered with a match up against the Indiand Jeremy Sowers today.
Speaking of Sowers, he's been nothing short a liability, going 1-2 with an ugly 6.16 ERA in 4 games (3 starts). What's worse, is he's been a utter disaster against the White Sox, going 0-3 with a 6.87 ERA in 4 career starts, including getting roughed up in his only start against them this season, allowing 5 runs on 7 hits over just 4 innings! In his only road start this season, he surrendered 7 runs over 5 innings at Fenway, and while the White Sox bats may no be nearly as potent at this point, they'll get more than their fair share of chances in this one.
On the flip side, the White Sox Gavin Floyd has clearly got his groove back, going 1-1 with an outstanding 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts! He dominated the Pirates and Athletics in his last 2 at the Cell, and while his numbers vs the Tribe are nothing to write home about, if you've seen him pitch of late, you know he's not to be trifled right now.
Finally, besides the obvious edge with their starter, the White Sox pen is also head and shoulders better than the Indians, posting a 3.16 ERA on the year, as compared to Cleveland's pathetic 5.15 bullpen ERA. In the end, expect the White Sox bats to give Floyd more than enough support, as they snap their 4-game losing streak this afternoon at home.
Take the Chicago White Sox behind Floyd over Cleveland and Sowers in this MLB match up.
3♦ CHI. WHITE SOX
Bobby Maxwell
Baltimore at OAKLAND -120
Got the FREE winner easily on Friday night with the Diamondbacks taking care of the Padres in San Diego and running our comp play mark to 5-2 with our last seven on the diamond. Tonight we'll do it again as we play the A's at home to beat the Orioles.
Oakland scored six runs in the first inning on Friday night and cruised to the 9-1 victory over the Orioles, a team the A's just dominate for some reason.
Oakland has won six straight over Baltimore and allowed the Orioles just 12 runs in those six games, with five coming in an extra-inning affair last season.
The last three times these teams have met the A's have outscored the Orioles 25-4. It's been completely one-sided. Go back even farther and the Orioles are just 16-46 in the last 62 meetings between these two teams.
On the mound for Oakland today is Trevor Cahill (2-5, 4.33 ERA) as he goes up against Baltimore's Jason Berken (1-1, 2.25 ERA). Even though his record has shown it, Cahill has pitched well lately, allowing just two earned runs in each of his last three games, but the offense has produced just four runs in those three games.
Baltimore is on further slides of 5-11 on Saturdays and 16-36 in their last 52 on the road. Oakland is 6-1 in their last seven as a home favorite and 5-1 in their last six overall.
We love the A's in this situation and expect them to deliver for us. Play Oakland.
3♦ OAKLAND
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Diamondbacks at PETCO.
Just too many factors going the way of the visitors today. I can't possibly be in too much love with the way AJ Hinch' squad has been playing overall this season but the Padres are awful and to get clearly the better pitcher in Max Scherzer today is more than enough for me.
The Arizona righthander is coming of of that awful start against the Braves and will be focused and ready to get back on track today, that you can be sure of.
Kevin Correia is the epitome of mediocre at the very best. Every now and then the righty is alright and pitching in spacious PETCO certainly helps him but Correia is a guy that should go six innings max and allow at least three or so runs. We could see more like three innings and six runs and it wouldn't be too shocking.
San Diego has had two really quality winning streaks this season. They started the season in fine fashion and a few weeks ago won 9 straight. But that means nothing to me as that was more of a mirage than anything as every team over a 162 game schedule will have a few good runs and the Padres just have nobody besides Adrian Gonzalez that can hit the ball.
The Diamondbacks have been worse than expected this season, I fully admit that, and have not exazctly been knocking the cover off of the ball but they have the clear better everything on their side tonight and are worth this comp type of a play.
Look for Scherzer to give us a strong outing as the snakes take care of business behind a potential stud in the making in Justin Upton.
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Because of a little weather our Comp Play on the Rays and Yankees gets put on hold. But, looks like they're playing today and my thoughts have not changed. Today we’re taking the Rays on the road at the Yankees.
The Rays come into this game on a roll, having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall.
So far this season the Rays and Yankees have already played in two series against each other with Tampa holding a 3-2 advantage in those 5 games. However, the last time these two played, on May 6-7, the Rays took 2 in New York.
On the mound for Tampa will be David Price, who has looked every bit as impressive as he did in last year’s postseason. In two starts this year Price has allowed only 3 earned runs in 9 innings of work, striking out 17 in that stretch.
On the other side, CC Sabathia has been mediocre at home this season, as he’s only 1-1 in 5 home starts. The Yankees, on the other hand, are only 2-3 in that stretch.
Tonight, the Yankees will drop another at home with Sabathia on the mound. Take the Rays on the road in this one.
3♦ RAYS
DAVE COKIN
CHICAGO CUBS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take CINCINNATI REDS
Ryan Dempster is tough for the Cubs, but I like playing first-time starters, especially lefties. Matt Maloney is not a high-end prospect for the Reds. He fits the crafty southpaw mode, a nibbler with a four-pitch repertoire and excellent control. Long term, I see Maloney as a spot starter or bullpen type. He gives up too many fly balls and his stuff won't allow him to consistently win starting in the big leagues. But like many pitchers of this type, he could well enjoy early success against even top flight hitters who haven't got a book on him. I'll give Maloney and the Reds a play here against the Cubs.
JIM FEIST
BALTIMORE ORIOLES / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Baltimore is interesting in the pitching department of late, as they have benched several ineffective or ailing starters and are bringing up a bunch of top prospects from Triple A. Starter Jason Berken goes here and has been impressive, with a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings. Oakland has never faced the kid before. Oakland has a weak offense and starter Trevor Cahill is winless his last three starts. He's 2-5 on the season and is not a strikeout pitcher, with a 4.33 ERA. Play the Orioles.
Nelly
San Francisco + over Florida
Andrew Miller has not quite lived up to his billing as a former top prospect. The Marlins are 3-8 in his last eleven starts Miller only has two more strikeouts than walks this season and he has averaged just over five innings per start. Miller owns a 4.76 ERA and an extremely high 1.68 WHIP on the season. Florida's bullpen has blown nine saves this season so it has not been a completely reliable unit. Recall that the Marlins started the season as the hottest team in baseball, and now is 15-29 since. San Francisco is above .500 and the Giants are a team on the rise. A good rotation and bullpen has kept the Giants in the mix early in the year and the young offense is now starting to help out as well. San Francisco is hitting .298 in the last ten games. The Giants do not have a great road record but many of those losses came early in the year and there should be an evening out of those marks in the coming weeks as the offense has shown so much improvement. Jonathan Sanchez has made three consecutive solid starts and he is perfect for facing a free-swinging Marlins team that strikes out a lot. Sanchez allows a lot of walks but Florida is not a patient team that will be able to take advantage.
Red Dog Sports
Minnesota at Seattle
Play: Under 8.5
These two pitchers have combined for 7 overs and 13 unders. Seattle has played under in 11 of their last 14 overall games and under in 6 of the last 8 at home. The Twins have played unders 12-3-2 in their last 17 on the road. Nik Blackburn has an ERA of 1.35 in his last 3 while Washburn's ERA is 3.50 over that span. Play the under on Saturday afternoon!
DUNKEL
Texas at Boston
The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's defeat and build on their 9-2 record in Jon Lester's last 11 starts as a home favorite between -150 and -200. Boston is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200).
Game 951-952: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 17.323; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.660
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+145); Over
Game 953-954: San Francisco at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.779; Florida (Miller) 15.736
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Over
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.418; Houston (Oswalt) 15.485
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-160); Over
Game 957-958: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 14.918; Washington (Lannan) 13.668
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-135); Under
Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.196; Cincinnati (Maloney) 16.257
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.016; Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 14.802; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.334
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Over
Game 965-966: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 14.168; San Diego (Correia) 14.520
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 16.739; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.349
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+190); Under
Game 969-970: Kansas City at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 13.799; Toronto (Richmond) 13.302
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over
Game 971-972: Minnesota at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.838; Seattle (Washburn) 15.522
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 15.265; White Sox (Floyd) 15.031
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Over
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Escobar) 14.236; Detroit (Jackson) 15.579
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under
Game 977-978: Texas at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.979; Boston (Lester) 16.982
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Under
Game 979-980: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 15.199; Oakland (Cahill) 14.838
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under
NHL
Pittsburgh at Detroit
The Red Wings look to bounce back after back-to-back losses and build on their 8-2 mark in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite between -150 and -200. Detroit is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150).
Game 9-10: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.944; Detroit 14.168
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under
MTi Sports
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets are 7-0 this season after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and the Nationals are 1-15 this season as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started. This price seems a bargain.