Blade, I thought maybe something "came up" because usually a
"service plays" thread appears before the Premium thread and so
I thought I would help out by posting the plays you usually post
since you seemed to be away and not here as usual. But it looks
like you are not away and so what I assumed was not correct.Good to see you here as always and your work is much appreciated,
Undefeated77 8)
No I am just tired of going out and finding these comp plays and see everything I do end up on other forums and NEVER get anything back in return,these may just be comps but lots of useful information in them I think.
Vernon Croy
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Minnesota Twins
We are getting solid value here today with the Twins who have Nick Blackburn (5-2, 3.50 ERA) on the mound for them since he has been lights out with an ERA of just 1.35 over his last 3 starts. The Twins are 5-0 in Blackburn's last 5 starts as a favorite and Blackburn is 1-0 over 3 career starts against the Mariners with an ERA of 3.50 while the Twins are 2-1 over those starts. Blackburn dominated this Mariners line-up back on May.10 allowing just 5 hits and 0 earned runs over 7 innings while striking out 6 batters. The Mariners are just 2-9 in their last 11 games in game 2 of a series and they are just 5-16 in Jarrod Washburn's (3-4, 3.22) last 21 home starts. The Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Mariners and the Mariners are just 7-16 in their last 23 home games against a team like the Twins who have a road winning record below .400. Take the Minnesota Twins
Tony George
Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Look for the Cards to bounce back under a streaking hot pitcher tonight. Todd Wellemeyer has a 2.76 ERA ihis last 3 outings and the Rockies have had trouble against good right handers all season and recently in their last 10 games, have managed a .236 batting avergage as a team. St. Louis got spanked last night 11-4 at home by there guys, and fully expect them to bounce back at home tonight with better hitting, a better starter, and better bullpen.
Free Play on St. Louis
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners +101
This is a strong home price for the M's with Washburn on the hill, who has been rock solid all season long with an ERA of just 3.22. He has always pitched well against the Twins with a 3.13 career ERA against them. He is 11-6 against the money line in his career starts versus Minnesota. Blackburn has been strong this season, but I don't see him getting the run support he needs here as his team is just 7-16 on the road and 9-25 in their last 34 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the M's.
Scott Delaney
Still on a 13-4 run with the complimentary releases after the Yankees were rained out. Tonight we're taking their arch-nemesis - Boston - to get it done over hard-hitting Texas in revenge from last night's loss.
The Red Sox must have been tired after touring three cities for 10 games, but now it's time to wake up and perform. I know the Rangers are a hard-hitting group, but we're going to see Jon Lester neutralize this lineup with his smooth repeatable lineup and high three-quarters arm action. He has a knack for keeping hitters off-balance with a pair of sharp breaking ball and a near-perfect change.
He comes in after being dominant last Sunday in Toronto, allowing one run and three hits while striking out 12 over six innings of an 8-2 win. Boston is on a 41-20 Lester toes the slab, while it is 23-5 in his last 28 home starts.
I know the Rangers are an improved bunch this season, and can still hit the cork out of the ball, but the Red Sox dominated Texas last season, winning nine of 10 head-to-head meetings, and after having and eight-game home winning streak against the Rangers last night, will be pissed off for a win tonight.
1♦ BOSTON RED SOX
Craig Davis
Tonight's complimentary play winner is on the Mariners/Twins to stay UNDER the total.
You've got two teams here that struggle putting runs on the board. Seattle's offense just isn't very dominating. The Mariners don't often score a lot of runs, especially at home in that pitcher's haven, but they do have a good enough staff and bullpen to keep them in games. Minnesota, on the other hand, is just 6-16 outside of the Metrodome, and the Twins score nearly 3 runs less per game on the road as opposed to home.
Minnesota sends Nick Blackburn to the hill tonight, having dominated his last three opponents, posting a 1.35 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Blackburn has beaten his last two opponents despite getting very little run support, besting Matt Garza and Jon Lester by scores of 3-2 and 5-2, respectively. As you can see, both of those totals were quite low.
Seattle counters with Jarrod Washburn, who enters this contest with a very respectable 3.22 ERA and has allowed just one earned run in his last 13 innings of work. In fact, he's yielded one run or less in four of his last six starts.
This game will end somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-2 or 4-2, easily staying UNDER the posted price.
3♦ UNDER
John Ryan
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as the face Texas slated to start at 7:10 EST. This play can also be played on the run line as an alternative wager. AiS shows a 70% probability that Boston will win by a margin great than 2 runs. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 55-19 for 73% winners since 2003. Play on home teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start and has poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season. Boston skipper Francona is a strong 101-35 (+42.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse. Boston is 18-4 (+13.5 Units) against the money line versus AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season; 21-3 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor fielding teams turning 0.8 or less DP's/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston
JACK JONES
Arizona Diamondbacks -128 over San Diego Padres
The Padres have really been struggling offensively, scoring just 3.5 runs per game at home this year and 3.0 in their last seven overall. Arizona hasn't been an offensive powerhouse, but they are at least at 4 runs per game over their last seven and 4.6 per game against right-handed starters. San Diego has also lost four in a row and six out of their last seven games. Max Scherzer has started five games on the road this year and has given up just 6 ER and 22 hits in 29 innings, good for a 1.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Niether starter has been great in their last three starts, but I expect Scherzer to have a better outing than Correia and Arizona to come out on top.
Wunderdog
Kansas City at Toronto
Pick: Toronto -170
The Kansas City Royals are a young team. Over the last few seasons, they have gotten into prolonged slumps, as the fragile egos of their young players are put to the test. They have now dropped eight straight games, and 13 of 15. They aren't just losing, they are getting pounded! The Royals have been outscored by a 58-19 count in the eight games or by an average margin of 7.3-2.4. That is just shy of five runs per game! They are facing a Blue Jays' team that at 20-9, has the best winning percentage at home of any other AL team. Luke Hochevar can hardly instill confidence in the young Royals, who saw the Jays whack around their ace, Grienke last night. Hochevar is pitching to a 10.80 ERA on the season, and is winless. Only one way to go here - Blue Jays get the call.
Dwayne Bryant
Phillies at Dodgers UNDER 9
Summary: In his last two starts, Joe Blanton has allowed just three runs in 14 innings while striking out 16. Blanton is also 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in four starts against Los Angeles. LA has been struggling at the plate, averaging just three runs over their last seven games. Hiroki Kuroda is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in three career starts versus Philadelphia. And both bullpens have been very solid. Philly's pen owns a 2.57 ERA in their last three outings. LA's pen owns a 3.38 ERA in that same span. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Phillies' last 17 overall. Add it all up and I like our chances with the UNDER in this one.
LARRY NESS
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Kelvim Escobar went a career-best 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA in 30 starts for the Angels in 2007 (team was 22-8) but underwent season-ending surgery after suffering a torn labrum in late March 2008. He didn't pitch at all last season and will make his 2009 debut tonight at Comerica Park. Escobar looked pretty good in three minor league rehab starts, posting a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 innings. However, this will be his first start in the majors since losing to Boston in Game 2 of the ALDS on Oct 5, 2007 (there is a difference!). This opponent was "hand-picked" for his return by the Angels, as Escobar is 7-0 with a 2.85 ERA in nine career starts vs the Tigers. It's also good news for Angel fans that the Tigers will enter tonight's game on a season-high four-game losing streak after last night's 2-1 loss to LA. The Tigers have scored all of just 10 runs in their current slide but they may not need many runs off Escobar (or a shaky Angels bullpen which owns an AL-worst 5.77 ERA), with Edwin Jackson on the mound. Jackson won a career-high 14 games with last year's AL champs (Rays) but has really "come into his own" for the Tigers this season. He's allowed three ERs or less in NINE of his 11 starts, allowing just 59 hits in 74.1 innings with a 2.30 ERA (third-best in the AL). Jackson deserves to be much better that his 5-3 record but things are "falling into place" for him recently, as he's 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA in his last five starts. If not for Escobar's lifetime mark vs the Tigers, I'd be "all over" Jackson and Detroit in this game. As is, I'll still make a "small play" on Jackson and the Tigers.
BEN BURNS
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
Floyd goes for the White Sox and he's been outstanding recently. In his last three starts he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The White Sox have won two of those three games, most recently a 6-2 victory over Oakland.
On the other hand, the Indians are 0-3 in Sowers' three starts this season. Sowers has a 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in those games. It's also worth noting that Sowers is 0-3 (Indians are 0-4) in four starts vs. the White Sox, recording a horrible 9.33 ERA during that stretch. Consider Chicago
Mike Rose
Detroit Red Wings -155
After two games of the stars being completely MIA, the players that really needed to come through for the Penguins to get back in this series have finally arrived. Cs Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jordan Staal each came up with a goal and an assist for the Pens in Game 4. It was Crosbys first goal since Game 3 of the Carolina series. As for Malkin, he leads the series in total points with seven, and is the only player on the ice for either squad to have tallied in all four games. Special teams were fantastic for Pittsburgh on Thursday night, as the Malkin scored the games opening goal on the power play just 2:39 in, and Staal scored at 8:35 of the 2nd period shorthanded to knot the game at 2-2. Crosbys even strength goal just two minutes later gave the Pens a lead they would never relinquish. The star of Games 3 and 4 though was G Marc-Andre Fleury, who is finally stepping up and holding his own in these playoffs. He stopped the final 19 shots he faced of the game, finishing up stopping 37 of 39 shots on net for the victory to tie the series.
After everything bounced their way in Games 1 and 2, absolutely nothing went right for the Red Wings in Games 3 and 4 in Pittsburgh. The power play unit only recorded one goal (and gave up that shorthanded goal) in the two games, and G Chris Osgood had the worst two outings hes had the entire postseason. In Game 4, Osgood gave up a whopping four goals in the first 22 shots he faced. Yes, he kept the Pens off the board in the third, but it was far too little, far too late. Offensively, C Johan Franzen got off six of Detroits 39 shots on net, but didnt score a point. For the Wings, 39 shots is more of a return to the norm, as they averaged 36.5 shots per game in the regular season but had been held under that average in Games 1-3. The biggest question mark remains the status of leading point scorer, LW Pavel Datsyuk. After insisting he was playing in Game 4, Datsyuk was a late scratch. Tonight, the report is much of the same for Detrois leading scorer, but until he actually steps foot on the ice, its hard to believe that hes really playing.
Detroit absolutely has to take back the momentum in this series and has to do it in a real hurry. It probably has the stronger of the two teams, but needs to get back to its ways offensively in order to seize control of the series yet again. Expect to see the Wings use their offensive firepower to run the Pens out of the building and take a 3-2 lead back to the Igloo early next week.
Wunderdog
Seattle at Sacramento
Pick: OVER 141
Seattle will head south to take on Sacramento in each team's WNBA opener. The Monarchs were one of the most improved teams over the second half of last season. They opened at a dismal 8-11, but came on strong to finish 10-5 and make the playoffs. The biggest change was at the offensive end. They went from a bottom-third offense in the low 70s, to a team that averaged 82.1 points per game in their final eight at home. In the playoffs, they were the top-scoring team. This total is set way to low for a team that has found a home in the 80s, so I'll back the OVER here.
RJ Robbins
San Francisco Giants vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Under 9
We are taking the Under. SF is 15-4 Under vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season and 11-1 Under after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less this season. The Marlins are 31-17 Under in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the L2 seasons. Take the UNDER 9.