SPORTS ADVISORS
Boston (37-24) at Philadelphia (35-24)
The Red Sox will try to run their winning streak to five when they send Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-4, 7.33 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies and young left-hander Antonio Bastardo (2-0, 2.45).
Boston overcame a blown save in the ninth inning and beat the Phillies 6-3 in 13 innings on Friday night in the series opener. The Red Sox have now won three straight over Philadelphia and 12 of the last 14 against the Phillies dating back to 2004.
The Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and they have now won five straight on the highway. They’ve also dominated interleague play, currently on runs of 54-18 overall, 25-9 on the road and 36-17 against N.L. East foes. The Phillies are on several hot streaks as well, including 10-4 overall, 4-2 at home, 5-2 in interleague play, 40-18 against winning teams, 15-6 on Saturdays and 6-1 against right-handed pitching.
Matsuzaka is just 1-2 in his last three outings with a 5.17 ERA and he’s got a 7.36 ERA this season on the highway. The Rangers knocked him around Sunday, scoring five runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win at Fenway Park. The right-hander has allowed three runs or more in five of his six starts this season. Still, with Matsuzaka on the hill, the Sox are on runs of 32-12 overall, 5-1 on Saturdays, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-2 in interleague action and 12-5 in the second game of a series.
Bastardo has been fantastic in his first two career starts, holding the Padres to one run on four hits in six innings in a 10-5 win on June 2 and then limiting the Dodgers to two runs in five innings of a 7-2 win on Sunday, both on the road. He’s got nine strikeouts and just two walks in his 11 innings.
The Red Sox are on several “under” runs, including 22-6-2 overall, 8-2-1 in interleague action, 8-2 on the road, 4-0 on Saturdays and 36-15-4 as in interleague underdog, and with Matsuzaka pitching, they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-2 in interleague games and 11-5-2 in the second game of a series. Philadelphia has topped the total in seven on its last 10 Saturday games, but it is on “under” runs of 14-5-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-0 against the A.L. East, 14-3-1 in interleague action and 8-3 against teams with a winning record. Finally, the over is 4-2 in the last six series clashes in Philadelphia and 6-3 in the last nine overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.Y. Mets (31-28) at N.Y. Yankees (35-26)
After an unbelievable loss in Game 1 of this edition of the Subway Series, the Mets send recently recalled Fernando Nieve (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound for his first start of the season opposite Yankees veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22).
The Mets took the lead Friday night in the eighth inning off Mariano Rivera and appeared to have the game won when closer Francisco Rodriguez got Yankees’ slugger Alex Rodriguez to pop up with two outs and two on. But Mets’ second baseman Luis Castillo dropped the pop up in short right field, allowing both runners to score and the Yankees to escape with a 9-8 victory.
The Mets have now lost seven of their last 10 and six of their last eight on the highway. Jerry Manuel’s club is 4-2 in its last six games in American League parks and 7-3 in its last 10 Saturday contests, but the Mets are just 1-4 in their last five against lefties and they’ve dropped four straight in the second game of a series.
The Yankees are now on upticks of 13-4 at home, 20-9 overall and 56-22 when hosting National League squads, 9-2 against right-handed pitching, 19-9 in Game 2 of a series, 19-9 on Saturdays but just 2-4 in their last six interleague games.
The Yankees have now won three of four in the Subway Series, and they are 8-2 in Pettitte’s last 10 starts against the Mets and 4-1 when he faces them in Yankee Stadium.
Nieve hasn’t started a game since 2006 when he was with the Astros and his only action this season came a week ago when he pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Nationals. He went 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA in four starts at Triple-A Buffalo.
Pettitte is 3-1 at home and the Yankees have won five of his last six outings overall, including Monday when he held the Rays to three runs (two earned) on five hits in six innings of a 5-3 victory. He faced the Mets twice last season and gave up a combined five runs in 12 innings as the teams split the two games. The Yankees are 73-34 in Pettitte’s last 107 home starts, 76-34 when he’s a home favorite, 16-5 when he faces N.L. East teams and 4-0 in his last four Saturday starts.
The Mets have topped the total in each of their last five as a ‘dog, and gone over in six straight interleague road games against southpaws and seven of 11 as an interleague ‘dog. Meanwhile the Yankees are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 4-1-1 overall and 7-1 in interleague play, and with Pettitte on the hill, they are on “under” streaks of 20-9-1 at home, 41-17-1 overall, 10-1-1 in interleague games and 8-1 against N.L. East teams.
Finally, with last night’s high-scoring affair, the over has now hit in six straight Subway Series battles at Yankee Stadium, but the under is 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six starts against the Mets.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
JIM FEIST
OAKLAND ATHLETICS VS SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take: UNDER
Randy Johnson is not a dominant pitcher anymore, but during this run for 300 wins the old man has been highly focused for 5-6 innings, with a 2.12 ERA his last three starts. His slider still darts, too, with 61 Ks in 63 innings for the year. Offensively, the Giants are terrible, ranked last in the NL in runs and OBP. Oakland is no offensive juggernaut, either, ranked 11th in runs in AL and a miserable .238 team batting average. San Fran has never seen A's starter Josh Outman (4-0, 3.17 ERA), who has been sharp. A great spot for a low scoring game. Play the A's/Giants under the total.
DAVE COKIN
BOSTON RED SOX VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Take BOSTON RED SOX
It hasn't been very good for Daisuke Matsuzaka, but I'll be backing the righty tonight. The Red Sox continue to be dominant in Interleague play, now standing a remarkable 41-17 the last four years while the Phillies are only 18-38 over the same stretch. This is the home debut for Antonio Bastardo and I'm not sure how his fly ball tendencies will play in that Philly bandbox. Boston has won four straight and I see them having solid value at this price. The Red Sox are the choice.
Red Dog Sports
Boston at Philadelphia
Play Under 9.5
Matsuzaka has 1 over and 5 unders this year while Bastardo has an ERA of 2.45. The Phils have played under 13-3-1 in their last 17 Interleague games and under 13-5-1 overall in their last 19. Look for the under to profit on Saturday.
Cappers Access
Sat (MLB) Blue Jays
Sat (MLB) Rangers
Sat (MLB) Giants
DUNKEL
Houston at Arizona
The only non-interleague game has Arizona looking to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-4 in Roy Oswalt's last 5 starts as a road favorite between -110 and -150. The Diamondbacks are the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has Arizona favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115).
Game 901-902: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 13.929; Arizona (Garland) 14.902
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Under
Game 903-904: Florida at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 15.708; Toronto (Janssen) 14.849
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Under
Game 905-906: Minnesota at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Swarzak) 15.538; Cubs (Harden) 15.939
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 907-908: Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 15.367; Milwaukee (Parra) 15.043
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Over
Game 909-910: NY Mets at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Nieve) 15.714; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.089
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-215); 11
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+195); Over
Game 911-912: St. Louis at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Thompson) 14.555; Cleveland (Okha) 15.606
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Over
Game 913-914: Washington at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmerman) 15.038; Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 15.233
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Under
Game 915-916: Atlanta at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 13.740; Baltimore (Hill) 14.480
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over
Game 917-918: Detroit at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 16.077; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.508
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over
Game 919-920: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.999; Philadelphia (Bastardo) 17.043
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under
Game 921-922: Cincinnati at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.270; Kansas City (Davies) 15.438
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over
Game 923-924: LA Dodgers at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.461; Texas (Feldman) 15.591
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under
Game 925-926: Seattle at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 15.657; Colorado (Marquis) 16.783
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 927-928: San Diego at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 14.134; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.058
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 929-930: Oakland at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Outman) 15.333; San Francisco (Johnson) 16.798
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Under
DUNKEL
New York at San Antonio
The Silver Stars host the 0-2 Liberty and look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games against teams with a losing SU record. San Antonio is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
Game 601-602: New York at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.648; San Antonio 117.303
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Sacramento at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 110.502; Phoenix 116.066
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 172
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 170
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7); Over
John Ryan
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on St. Louis as they face Cleveland. ST. Louis is 41-24 (+15.8 Units) against the money line versus a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons; 19-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games over the last 3 seasons; 13-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is just 8-19 (-11.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season; 5-13 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis bullpen is quite strong and performing well sporting a 3.33 ERA and a 1.296 WHIP in all road games spanning 81 IP. Cardinals starter Thompson is a vastly under rated starter. He throws 4 pitches well featuring a slider that he throws 20% of the time to RH batters. He uses a change very effectively to LH hitters and all hitters are batting 238 on that pitch. Take the Cardinals
Ben Burns
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
After knocking off the Braves in Atlanta, 3-1 on Thursday, the Pirates had the tables turned on them yesterday and lost by the same 3-1 score in the series opener vs. Detroit. Pittsburgh had won 6 of their first 10 games in June and have surprised many by playing some of their best ball this season AFTER the Nate McLouth trade. The Pirates still have a winning record (15-12) at home this season and I believe that they’ve got the right man on the mound to add another "W" to that record today.
Southpaw Zach Duke gets the ball for the Pirates and he had been on fire before struggling at Atlanta in his last start. Duke went into his start against the Braves having allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. The Pirates southpaw also had lasted at least seven innings in seven of those eight outings. Indeed, Duke had been an effective workhorse for the Pirates staff and he'll look to quickly resume that role after the sub-par effort at Atlanta. Note that Duke has won three straight home starts and also that he’s never faced the Tigers in his career so many of Detroit’s hitters will be getting their first-ever look at the talented left-hander.
Like Duke, Armando Galarraga will have the advantage of starting against today's opponent for the first time. Unlike Duke, Galarraga has really struggled lately. After going 3-0 in April, he went 0-5 in May with an awful 8.49 ERA. While he has been better in June, he's still winless in his two June starts, going 0-1. Here's another notable stat about Galarraga that should be mentioned here. He’s 9-2 in day games in his career with a 2.86 ERA but 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA in night games. With the Pirates a perfect 6-0 their last six home games played on a Saturday, consider a play on Pittsburgh.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston Astros vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play Over 9
The free play for Saturday is over the total in the Houston-Arizona game at 8:10 eastern based on the system above that has cashed 7 of the last 9 times and averages nearly 11 runs per game.What we want to do is play the over when a team is a home dog off a home favored win and scored 5+ runs,provided the road team scored 2 runs or less and had 2 or less hits in the game.Arizona is a home dog and fits this solid system tonight.Other trends include,Arizona has gone over 5 of 7 times as a home dog this year,Pitcher J.Garland has gone over in 4 of his 5 home starts this year and in the series 5 of the last 7 in Arizona have gone over the total.On Saturday night I have an Interleague total of the month backed with another incredible angle.Plus a solid overall card,including off shore steam plays which are 4-1 this week.For the free play though I will back the over 9 runs tonight in the Houston-Arizona game bol RV.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -105
We'll back the Cards in Game 2 of this series as they are 6-1 in their last 7 game 2's. Plus, Thompson gives them an edge on the hill as they are 6-0 in his last 6 starts with 4 days of rest, 7-1 in his last 8 starts game 2's of a series, and 9-2 in his last 11 starts as a favorite. The Indians are 5-15 in their last 20 game 2's of a series, 1-6 in their last 7 Saturday games, and 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cards strike back this afternoon.
Jeff Benton
Houston -120 at ARIZONA
Another freebie winner Friday as the Rockies battled back got it done on the run-line against Seattle, giving me a 6-1 free-play run over the past week. For Saturday, we’ll head to the desert and back the Astros and ace Roy Oswalt as a slight road chalk against the Diamondbacks.
Now in his ninth season in the majors, Oswalt has been having an unprecedented down year with the Astros. Normally, the star right-hander is good for at least 15 wins, but he enters the day 2-3 with a 4.66 ERA in 13 starts, and he was given an extra two days of rest for this start because of a sore right wrist. However, the rest puts Oswalt in a good spot as he faces the Diamondbacks, a team he has owned throughout his career, going 7-1 with a 2.25 ERA in nine starts.
Conversely, Diamondbacks starter Jon Garland had been an innings-eater in his first season with the team, but those innings have not been productive ones. Garland (4-6, 5.61 ERA) hasn’t tasted victory since he beat Florida on May 19. He has lost his last four starts, posting a 7.98 ERA over this span, including getting bombed for six runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings against San Diego in his last outing.
Also, Garland has been especially bad this season at home, where his ERA is an outrageous 8.71 in six starts, compared with 3.08 on the road. So, considering Garland’s struggles and Oswalt’s history against Arizona, the Astros – who will certainly be happy to see Garland after getting handcuffed by Dan Haren last night – are a smart play at this price.
3♦ HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Minnesota +160 at CUBS
Friday comp play winner on Milwaukee over the White Sox.
Now 7-2 the last 9 days for free.
Early interleague action this Saturday, and I am all about the huge dog Twins to down the slumping Cubs once again.
Yesterday, Minny took the 7-4 decision, as Chicago continues to try and find offense in their anemic attack.
The Twins have some serious bats in their lineup, and with Rich Harden slated to make his first start since May 17th, you kind of get the feeling that he won't be around too late in this game...at least we do!
Swarzak hasn't shown all that much for Ron Garenhire's team, but the way the Cubbies have been swinging the bat, perhaps this is the day he throws 6 or 7 goose eggs on the board.
The Twins have won 3 of 4, while the Cubs have now lost 3 straight, and stand at just .500 for the year.
Take the underdog to get the Saturday card started!
1♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell
Cincinnati +105 at KANSAS CITY
We handed you an interleague FREE winner on Friday night when the Red Sox got the win in Philadelphia and we'll get you another one tonight as the Reds get the job done for us in Kansas City.
The Royals have been fading fast in the A.L. Central standings, going from the top of the group five weeks ago to the bottom of the division now. They've only won eight games in five weeks as they've gone 8-23 since May 7 with a .233 batting average and team ERA of 4.84.
Things aren't getting better tonight when they have to face Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo (7-4, 5.00 ERA). Arroyo has a 2.79 ERA in three career starts against Kansas City and he gave up three runs and five hits on Sunday against the Cubs, but the Reds lost 6-3 in 11 innings.
The Royals go with Kyle Davies (2-6, 5.13 ERA) who is on a five-game losing streak. He had some bad luck on Sunday when he went up against Roy Halladay. Davies threw a complete game and gave up four runs and nine hits in eight innings. He hasn't notched a win since April 30.
Kansas City got the win Friday night, beating Cincinnati 4-1, but that isn't happening two times in a row. Kansas City is just 2-6 in its last eight games as a home favorite and 4-10 against right-handed pitching.
The Reds are on runs of 8-3 against the A.L. Central and 6-2 against teams with a losing record. Look for the Reds to get some offense tonight and win this one with ease. Play Cincinnati.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Drew Gordon
Seattle at COLORADO -115
Now on a 13-4 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Brewers over the Chicago White Sox 7-2 last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Seattle/Colorado match-up.
Not only are the Rockies playing their best baseball in recent memory, but they also get a nice break in not having to face the Mariners southpaw ace Eric Bedard tonight. Winners of 9 in a row, including a ridiculous 8 of those 9 wins on the road, the Rockies are rolling and its going to take a lot more than Brandon Morrow to cool them off!
Speaking of the Mariners' Morrow, let's get real, he was going to be pitching for Triple-A Tacoma before Bedard's "mild elbow inflammation," so let's not get too carried away with the young righty. Not only did he blow his chance as the M's closer early on this season, but he proved as road-weary as they get, going an ugly 0-3 with a 10.24 ERA on the road... And this is the guy you want to back against a red-hot Rockies club? Also note, he's not expected to throw more than 60 or so pitches, so they'll be additional pressure on the bullpen one way or the other.
Opposing Morrow is the Rockies Jason Marquis, who's been nothing short of stellar over his last 5 starts, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA! He's also pitched well against the Mariners in the past, going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in 2 career starts. Some critics of this play will point to Marquis' 5.34 ERA at Coors, but that's more a result of a couple bad starts in mid-May, and there's no question he's got the kinks worked out over his L5 starts.
Finally, not only have the Rockies been winning because of their pitching, but you better believe they've been rock-solid at the plate, batting .284 as a team over their last 10. Statistically, they've preferred hitting lefties at Coors, but once again, over their last 10 games, they've been hitting everything, batting a potent .285 against rigthies over that span! In the end, some of you may think this is the spot where the winning streak ends, but think again, as the Rockies make it 10 in a row tonight!
Take Colorado behind Marquis over Seattle and Morrow in this MLB match up.
2♦ COLORADO