Mr. A
Chicago Cubs -170
New York Yankees -210
MLB Computer Picks
Florida Marlins +120
Pittsburgh Pirates -120
San Francisco Giants -110
Vernon Croy
Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and it would be a premium play for me but it is over my personal limit of -150. The Rockies have the advantage of facing Brandon Morrow (0-3, 6.38) instead of Mariners ace Erik Bedard who is scratched from tonight's game. Jason Marquis (8-4, 3.98) has pitched solid for the Rockies over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.61 over 20.7 innings. The Rockies are a red hot 9-0 over their last 9 games and they are 6-1 in their last 7 MLB Interleague games as a favorite. The Rockies are 4-1 in Marquis' last 5 starts and they are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the Seattle Mariners. The Rockies are averaging 5.8 rpg at home this season and I look for them to hit Morrow hard tonight in his 1st start out of the bullpen. Take the Colorado Rockies
Larry Ness
Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
What's not to like about the Rays in their game tonight at Tropicana Field vs the Nationals (other than the moneyline is at the high end of my price range)? However, considering all the edges the Rays bring to the table in this game, it's surely worth a small play. The Rays won 4-3 last night, upping their 2009 record to 32-31. The Rays have not been more than one game over the .500 mark this entire season. which has to be a disappointment, as the team won 97 regular season games last year and then advanced to the World Series. The Rays dominated opponents last year at Tropicana Field, going 57-24 and plus-$2,701 vs the moneyline. That included a fabulous 42-14 mark when facing right-handed starters, a situation in which the Rays earned most of their home profits (plus-$2,490). The Rays are a more modest 19-12 (plus-$133) at home this season but note the team is averaging 5.87 RPG in Tropicana Field and once again is doing well vs right-handers here at home, posting a 17-7 mark (plus-$565). Into this lair come the 16-43 Nationals. MLB's worst team (minus-$2,542). They are 6-21 on the road (minus-$1,302) and will be pitching rookie right-hander, Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann made his major league debut with a 3-2 win over the Braves (April 20) and in his next start, beat the Mets, 8-1. His 2-0 start with a 2.38 ERA was short-lived. He 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA over his last seven starts, with the Nats going 1-6. He was scratched from his last scheduled start Tuesday because of elbow fatigue and who knows how he'll be here? "I'm not concerned," manager Manny Acta told the Nationals' official Web site. "He's fine; there's no problem with him." There you go, but we know for sure is that the Rays CRUSH righties at home and that Zimmermann has a 6.64 ERA in his last seven starts. We also know that when he's "through for the day," he'll hand the ball to a Washington bullpen which owns MLB's second-highest ERA (5.36) and one which owns a 6-20 record, with more blown saves (13) than saves (9). Andy Sonnanstine goes for the Rays and while he's been horrific on the road (1-6 with an 8.55 ERA in seven starts / team is 2-6), he's been just fine at home (3-0 with a 4.30 ERA in four starts / team is 3-1). Take the Rays.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -114
The Rangers found their bats again Friday with a 6-0 win over the best team in baseball and I like their chances again tonight behind Scott Feldman, who comes in with a 5-1 record and a 3.00 ERA. Texas is now a perfect 4-0 in Interleague play while LA is 1-3. Here's the key: the Dodgers are only 4-23 in their last 27 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Texas tonight for 1 unit.
Ron Raymond
TAM / WAS Under 9.5
When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog - 2nd game of a series - During a night game - Vs AL Conference - Allowed 4 runs AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog; The UNDER is 13-3-0 for the Road Underdog (WASHINGTON) in this role since 1997.
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite - During the 2009 season - During a night game - Coming off a Home win - Coming off a 1 run win; The UNDER is 12-5-1 for the Home Fave (TB) this season.
Game Hunter
2009 Record: 252-237, +62.2649 Forschs
Friday: 6-2, +7.600 units
ST. LOUIS +105 (2 UNITS)
UNDER DET/PITT 8.5 RUNS (-104) (1.75 UNITS)
WASHINGTON +150 (1.5 UNITS)
BALTIMORE -105 (1.5 UNITS)
SEATTLE 1ST 5 INNS +163 (1.5 UNITS)
METS +195 (1 UNIT)
PHILADELPHIA -115 (1.5 UNITS)
UNDER LAD/TEX 9.5 RUNS (-108) (1.5 UNITS)
UNDER OAK/SF 7.5 RUNS (-120) (1.5 UNITS)
OVER HOU/ARIZ 9.5 RUNS (+110) (1.5 UNITS)
Wunderdog
Washington at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5
Anyway you look at this one, the numbers are pretty ugly for the Nationals. Their road futility has led them to a 94-176 mark in their last 270 games. This year they are 6-21. The news doesn't get better however, it gets worse. They are also 9-42 in their last 51 road games when facing a right handed starter. Overall they are now also 15-56 vs. a team with a winning record. To compound those problems they face a Tampa team that is now 76-36 in their last 112 at home and on a 13-4 run at home in their last 17. The Rays have now outscored their opponents by a 57-25 count in their last 10 home games. They won eight of them by an average margin of 52-17! They are averaging 5.9 runs per game at home and 6.0 vs. RHP while Washington is getting only 4.4 per game. Andy Sonnanstine has pitched to a 4.30 ERA at home while Zimmerman has posted a 6.85 road ERA. The bullpen difference: 3.77 ERA vs. 5.30 ERA. The Nats are just 11-24 to the run line vs. winning teams this season. I'll take the + odds on the run line on this one.
Randall the Handle
NY Mets +1.88 over NY YANKEES
On strictly value alone, the Mets are a play here. Of course that doesn’t mean they’ll win but damn, this is a big time tag on a strong team. Yesterday’s pitching match-up looked a lot more favorable for the Yanks than this one and the Yanks needed a whole lot of luck and a ninth inning error to overcome an 8-7 deficit, not to mention a 6-3 deficit earlier on. The Mets are a dangerous team, just like the Yanks and Andy Pettitte, although he can be very tough, has thrown a ton of pitches this season and it’ll catch up to him at some point. In fact, his pitch-count over his last several games reads like this; 104, 104, 87, 114, 105, 106 and 115. Pettitte has allowed four runs or more in five of his last eight games and his ERA at home is 5.40 to go along with a .316 BAA. He could definitely get hit hard here. For the Mets, we’ll see a young pitcher with major-league experience. Fernando Nieve has thrown 109 pitches in the bigs and his numbers are not bad at all. He’s started 11 games, he’s appeared in 52 and in those 109 innings, he’s allowed just 105 hits while striking out 84. He’s been up here for a few games and saw action in relief on June 6 in Washington in which he went two full innings and allowed one hit, no runs and struck out two. Nieves has been around for a while and he’s one of those guys that could fill in very nicely for an injured pitcher for a start or two. He’s been up and down for years and won’t be intimidated by this scenario. These long-time minor leaguers that have been around for a while have seen it all and it’s not like he doesn’t have talent. Anyway, the Yanks are overpriced again and the tag here makes the risk a worthy one. Play: NY Mets +1.88 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.01 over BALTIMORE
I’m going to break my rule of playing AL teams only in inter-league play because the Orioles are absolutely not worthy of being the chalk right now. Whether they’re playing at home or on the road, the Orioles are not scoring runs and that’s an understatement. In fact, over its last 12 games, they’ve scored more than three times in a game just once. They’ve been held to two runs or fewer in eight of those last 12. They have two wins over that stretch and one of the wins was a 1-0 victory over Seattle. They’ve never seen today’s Braves starter and that can’t be beneficial to them in any way. The Braves came in here last night, scored two in the first and it was over. They cruised to an easy 7-2 victory and chances are they’ll win again over this crumbling host. Play: Atlanta +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.30 over TORONTO
The Jays looked completely lifeless last night in a 7-2 loss and this one goes at 1:00 PM. If last night is any indication then there’s a good chance that they’ll be lethargic again today. Ricky Nolasco was having a horrible year indeed until he faced the Jays last night and they made him look very good when in fact, he’s not. Nolasco struck out nine Jays. Today, the Jays will have to deal with Sean West, a guy that throws extremely hard and has wicked stuff. West is a big lefty that has made four big-league starts. In those starts he’s 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA. In 24.1 innings he’s allowed just 14 hits while striking out 15 and the opposition has hit a puny .159 against him. Casey Janssen has also made four starts but his ERA is 5.24 and at home in two starts his ERA is 6.55. The Blue Jays looked awful last night and they’re very vulnerable to another defeat today. Play: Florida +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.00 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates held true to form last night with another inter-league loss and have now dropped 41 of its last 56 inter-league games. The fact that they’re favored here is all the incentive needed to pull the trigger on the Tigers. Zach Duke has impressive numbers this season but a lot of luck has figured into that. He’s struck out just five batters over his last 20 innings and now has just 44 k’s in 85 innings of work. He puts the ball in play and he keeps it down but this isn’t the Cubbies, Atlanta, San Diego or Cincinnati he’ll be facing. No, this is the Tigers, a team that has won six of eight and that has a 14-5 record against left-handed starters. Offensively, the Tigers are far superior and when I don’t have to lay anything with the Tigers over the Buccos, you can pencil me in and I make no exception here. Play: Detroit +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Indiancowboy
Take Under 9 between San Diego Padres @ LA Angels
Vegas knows best. 75% of the public are riding the Angels in the contest against the Padres today in Anaheim. And, why not. Saunders is on a bounce-back after a rough start where he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings (a non-quality start) in Detroit, where the Angels lost 6-9. The lefty has struggled a bit latey but he has yet to have back to back non-quality starts as he hits the mound today. But, why the less than -130 on the Angels at home with Saunders on the bounce-back? Well, my assumption is that Vegas expects a positive performance from Geer today as he looks to bounce-back from a loss against the Diamondbacks where he picked up a ND, but his team lost 6-9. We did a similar under on a paid play when we took the Under between the Giants/Nationals when Vegas put a very short line on Lincecum on the highway as they expected a solid performance from the young Nat pitcher. We decided to stay away from the side and took the Under as we expected positive performances from both and it panned out. This is much the same theory that is applied here today. The Under is 9-2 when the Angels face a righty and the Under is 8-1 for the Padres when they face a lefty such as Saunders on the road.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -124
The Phillies are the play in Philadelphia against the Red Sox Saturday. Daisuke Matsuzaka is still struggling this year, going 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA and a 19.8 WHIP in his last three starts, which actually improved his overall numbers on the season to 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP. Until Dice-K shows he can put together a quality start, the Red Sox are going to be in trouble when he steps on the mound. The Phillies are one of the better scoring teams in baseball, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Boston walked away with Game 1 in the series with a very strong outing from Jon Lester, but I doubt they will get the same support from Dice-K tonight. Take the Phillies.
Yankee Capper
Pittsburgh Pirates -115
Boston Red Sox +120
Mets/Yankees Over 11
San Diego Padres +1.5
Scott Rickenbach
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Over
Despite 24 hits in Game One of this series yesterday, it managed to stay just short of going over the total. Tonight we expect both teams to again hit the ball very well but there will be no "craziness" in this match-up. The hits come and the runs follow! Rich Hill of the Orioles couldn't even get out of the first inning in his most recent start. Kevin Kawakami of the Braves has proven susceptible to the big inning so far in his young career. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Baltimore.