SPORTS ADVISORS
Milwaukee (37-30) at Detroit (36-31)
The Brewers send struggling right-hander Dave Bush back to the mound as they continue a three-game interleague series at Comerica Park against the Tigers, who are scheduled to hand the ball to Alfredo Figaro for his first big-league game.
Detroit pounded out a 10-4 victory in Friday’s opener, with the game shortened to seven innings because of rain. The Tigers have followed up a four-game slide with consecutive wins, scoring 16 runs along the way after failing to produce more than three runs in the previous eight contests. Jim Leyland’s club carries positive streaks of 46-21 in interleague action, 37-14 when hosting National League squads and 9-2 when playing on Saturday, but it still just 3-6 in its last nine at home.
Milwaukee’s modest three-game win streak came to a halt with Friday’s setback, but the Brewers have now scored 34 runs in their last four contests after tallying just 20 runs in the previous six (all at home). They’ve have won five of their last seven on the road overall and 20 of 27 against winning teams, but in interleague play, the Brew Crew is mired in slumps of 4-10 on the highway and 1-6 against right-handed starters.
These teams split six total meetings in 2006 and 2007, with the visitor going 4-2.
Bush is coming off by far his worst start of the season, as he gave up eight runs (all earned) in just 3 1/3 innings at Cleveland on Monday. He left trailing 8-3, but Milwaukee rallied back and prevailed 14-12. Bush has given up four runs or more in four of his last five starts, none of them quality outings. The veteran right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.89 ERA in six road starts this season.
The Brewers are now 8-3 in Bush’s last 11 starts overall and 5-1 in his last six Saturday outings, but they’re just 17-35 in his last 52 road starts. Also, Bush faced Detroit twice in 2005 when with Toronto, allowing a combined 11 runs (nine earned) in 7 1/3 innings (13.50 ERA), and the Tigers won both games.
Figaro makes his big-league debut after being recalled from Double-A Erie, where he went 5-2 with a 4.10 ERA in 11 games. With Erie, the right-hander recorded 59 strikeouts against just 17 walks in 68 innings.
For Milwaukee, the “over” is on runs of 4-0 overall (all against the A.L. Central) and 4-1 with Bush facing American League opponents. However, the under is 5-1 in Bush’s last six on the highway. Meanwhile, the Tigers sport nothing but “under” trends, including 21-9 overall, 10-2 at home, 22-8 against right-handed starters and 7-3 in interleague play. Finally, four of the last six clashes in this infrequent rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Dodgers (44-24) at L.A. Angels (36-29)
The Dodgers and Angels resume their three-game Freeway Series at Angels Stadium in Anaheim, where a unique pitching matchup will be on display with brothers Jeff Weaver (4-1, 3.72) and Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) slated to square off for the first time in their major-league careers.
The Angels extended their winning streak to seven in a row – all against N.L. West clubs – with Friday’s come-from-behind 5-4 victory. The Halos, who have scored a total of 52 runs during their win streak, are now 8-1 in interleague play this season (all against the N.L. West). Mike Scioscia’s club is on further interleague hot streaks of 39-17 overall, 19-5 versus the West, 5-1 at home and 7-0 against right-handed starters.
The Dodgers continue to be dismal against the American League, as they’re now mired in interleague slumps of 20-44 overall, 14-38 in A.L. ballparks and 6-22 when facing right-handed starters on the road in interleague action. On the bright side, overall, Joe Torre’s troops remain on upticks of 42-21 overall, 11-5 on the road, 16-5 on Saturday and 5-2 against right-handed starters.
The Angels, who took two of three at Dodger Stadium last month, are 3-1 against their crosstown rivals this season, 13-5 in the last 18 meetings overall and 21-7 in the last 28 clashes in Anaheim.
Jeff Weaver has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen since his last start on May 20, when he held the Mets to a run on four hits in five innings, getting a no-decision as the Dodgers won, 2-1. Weaver is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts – going exactly five innings in each outing – and he’s 1-1 with an 11.12 ERA in four road appearances (one start), surrendering seven runs in 5 2/3 innings. Finally, he’s 5-8 with a 4.05 ERA in 16 career appearances (14 starts) against the Angels.
Jered Weaver continued to make a case for his first All-Star appearance as he tossed a complete-game shutout against the Padres on Sunday, allowing five hits and a walk in a 6-0 victory. The right-hander has given up exactly five runs in his last five starts covering 35 innings (1.29 ERA), going 4-0 with a no-decision that the Angels also won.
In addition to prevailing in each of Weaver’s last five starts overall, the Angels are 21-8 in his last 29 at home and 4-1 in his five starts against the Dodgers. This year at Angel Stadium, Weaver is 5-0 with a paltry 1.01 ERA (six earned runs allowed in 53 2/3 innings). He’s also 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in those five career starts against the Dodgers, allowing two runs or fewer in all five games. That includes a 3-1 win at Dodger Stadium on May 22 when he yielded just one run and four hits in eight innings.
With Jeff Weaver starting, the “under” is on stretches of 5-2 overall and 5-0 in interleague play, while the under is 7-0-1 in his brother’s last eight starts overall, 6-0 in his last six at home, 4-0 in his last four interleague contests and 5-1 in his last six on Saturday.
The Dodgers are on “under” runs of 6-2 on the highway, 6-1 on Saturday, 12-5 in interleague action, 38-16-3 in American League parks and 13-7 versus the N.L. West. Also, the under is 11-6 in the Angels’ last 17 at home. Finally, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 14 meetings overall in this rivalry and is 9-4-1 in the last 14 battles in Anaheim.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
DUNKEL
Tampa Bay at NY Mets
The Mets look to follow up last night's win over the Rays and build on their 10-2 record in Johan Santana's last 12 home starts when the total is set between 7 and 8 1/2. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120)
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.145; Colorado (Hammel) 16.083
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+145); Under
Game 953-954: Cleveland at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Ohka) 14.732; Cubs (Lilly) 14.236
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); N/A
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.926; Detroit (Figaro) 16.164
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Weaver) 16.328; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.692
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+160); Over
Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.188; NY Mets (Santana) 16.190
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Over
Game 961-962: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.255; Washington (Detwiler) 16.284
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Under
Game 963-964: Baltimore at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.811; Philadelphia (Happ) 15.418
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under
Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.444; Florida (Johnson) 15.203
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Over
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 14.046; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.659
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under
Game 969-970: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.734; Boston (Beckett) 15.116
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+160); Over
Game 971-972: St. Louis at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 13.899; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.300
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over
Game 973-974: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.613; Minnesota (Baker) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+175); Under
Game 975-976: Texas at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.646; San Francisco (Cain) 15.635
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.974; San Diego (Silva) 14.452
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under
Game 979-980: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 15.049; Seattle (Vargas) 15.142
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over
WNBA
Chicago at Washington
The Mystics look to bounce back from yesterday's loss at Atlanta and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Washington is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4).
Game 651-652: Chicago at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 105.420; Washington 111.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4); Over
Big Al McMordie
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Over 8.5
At 7:10 pm our complimentary selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox 'over' the total. Veteran starter Derek Lowe will be making a homecoming of sorts when he pitches this game in Fenway Park as it will be his first performance in that venue since he played a key role for Boston in its 2004 postseason march to its first World Series title in almost a century. It should be a very interesting return for Lowe because he comes into this game off his worst start of the season, an 11-2 drubbing which the Braves took at the hands of the Orioles back on June 14 when Lowe failed to make it out of the third inning. Since Lowe is a sinkerball specialist, it's safe to say that his ball wasn't sinking very effectively on that occasion and if he has the same problem tonight it will be an even shorter outing for him. He will face Josh Beckett who, like Lowe, has also had a successful season, but comes into this game off a very ineffective start against the Phillies in which he gave up six earned runs on 11 hits in just six innings. It was his first loss since April, but there's no telling how Beckett will bounce back from that one. The Braves have beefed up the middle of their lineup in a big way when they acquired Nate McLouth from the Pittsburgh Pirates back on June 3 for three prospects. McLouth fills a big hole in the heart of the order and it is beginning to show for Atlanta on the scoreboard.
Craig Trapp
Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Records
Chicago White Sox 31-36, 15-18 away (Richard 2-1, 3.76 ERA)
Cincinnati Reds 34-32, 17-15 home (Cueto (6-4, 2.17 ERA)
Betting Trends
-White Sox are 0-6 in Richards last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
-White Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
-Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
-Reds are 5-2 in Cuetos last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Pretty hard to back the CHW as they have just not been playing very good. On the other hand CIN has been playing very good at home. Lately the Reds have turned the home into some key wins going 3-1 in last 4. Today the Reds turn to there best pitchers by the numbers this year Cueto. Cueto has been dominant and when he doesn't walk people he is unbeatable. Love the National League teams at home as the pitchers for the CHW are not used to hitting and taking the DL out of the lineup is a huge advantage to CIN. This one will be close early but the Reds will get a couple extra runs on CHW bullpen. SCORE CIN 5 - CHW 2
Red Dog Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play Under 8.5
The two Weaver brothers face each other Saturday night. One has a 3.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and the other has an ERA of 1.23. The Dodgers have 12 unders and 4 overs in their last 16 interleague games and the Angels have 11 unders and 5 overs in their last 16 home games. There have been 9 unders and 4 overs in the last 13 meetings. Look for an under on Saturday!
Marc Lawrence
Play On: NY Mets w/Santana
the Mets and Rays meet in Game Two of this weekend series when New York sends ace left hander Johan Santana to the mound at Citi Field. Santana enters this afternoon's contest with 11 wins in his last 14 team starts at home. He's also 5-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his last six starts against Tampa Bay. With that, look for Santana to improve to 15-6 on Saturdays here today.
BRIAN HANSEN
Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
The Indians had yesterday’s game won until Cliff Lee turned it over to the Indians bullpen and they blew a 7-0 lead to lose in extra innings. The Indians won’t recover from that loss, especially having Ohka on the hill against Lilly. Ohka did pitch decent in his lone start, this week against St. Louis, but that was at home. He’ll find it much tougher today in Wrigley field. Lilly has pitched very well all season but especially strong in his last three starts posting a 1.27 ERA and a perfect 3-0 team start record. The Indians have no chance in this game. Cubs beat up the Tribe. Play on Chicago Cubs!
MTi Sports
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are a perfect 15-0 THIS SEASON vs a team that has won at least their last two games -- consider Boston.
Jeff Benton
Cleveland at CHI. CUBS
For Saturday’s free play, we’ll back the Cubs on the run line -1½ runs against the Indians.
Usually, I downplay momentum in baseball, simply because the season is so long and starting pitching is such a big factor day in and day out. But this is one case where I can’t ignore momentum. First off the Cubs are coming off back-to-back miraculous – possibly season-changing – victories. On Friday, they went to the bottom of the eighth inning trailing the White Sox 5-1, only to rally for a 6-5 walk-off win. Then yesterday, Chicago fell behind the Indians 7-0 after four innings and trailed 7-2 in the bottom of the eighth, only to come back again to tie the game in the ninth and win it 8-7 in the 10th, beating up on Cleveland’s god-awful relief staff.
In fact, yesterday marked the second time this week that Cleveland has squandered a huge lead in the latter innings. Back on Monday, the Indians’ bullpen was handed a 12-7 lead in the seventh inning at home against the Brewers, but that lead vanished when Milwaukee scored a run in the seventh and six in the eighth to steal a 14-12 victory.
Cleveland has now dropped four straight games, all to N.L. Central squads, allowing a whopping 38 runs in the process (the majority given up by the relievers).
As for this pitching matchup, Chicago has a huge edge. Ted Lilly is 7-4 with a 2.94 ERA overall and 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA at home, with the Cubs winning five of his six home starts. In his last four trips to the bump, Lilly has surrendered a total of four earned runs in 28 1/3 innings (1.27 ERA) with a 22-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is handing the ball to journeyman right-hander Toma Ohka, who made his first start in two years a week ago and pitched very well against the Cardinals. However, Ohka doesn’t figure to go much longer than six innings in this contest, which, of course, brings the crappy Indians bullpen – which now has more blown saves (13) than saves (12) – back into play.
Throw in the fact that the Cubs are 19-7 in Lilly’s last 26 starts and 4-0 in his last four interleague outings, while the Tribe have now dropped 11 of their last 14 in National League parks, and this has blowout written all over it. Lay the run line with Chicago.
4♦ CUBS -1½
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tampa Bay at NY METS -120
Our FREE play run is at 11-5 the last 16 days!
Late afternoon action today, and it is funny how one terrible start can get you some solid value the next time out. That happens to be the case today as Johan Santana comes off his worst start in recent memory, and will now face a Tampa Bay team that is stuggling mightily with the road, and interleague play.
The Rays are just 14-22 away from home this year, and they come into this game having lost their last 3 on the highway. Not only that, but starter James Shields is just 1-3 on the road with a 4.15 ERA.
The Mets can counter with the win to open the weekend series last night, a 19-11 home mark, and Santana's 5-1 mark at CitiField where his ERA is a scant 2.14.
At this cheap of a price, we are definitely willing to give Johan a chance at remdemtion!
Play on the Metropolitans to send the Rays to loss # 4 in a row.
2♦ NY METS
Dominic Fazzini
Toronto -110 at WASHINGTON
The Nationals are playing as well as they have all season, riding a three-game winning streak, which matches a season high. Their most recent victory, 2-1 over the Blue Jays in 11 innings Friday, follows two road wins over the mighty Yankees, so the lowly Nats have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Washington even has a little luck on its side today, as the team gets to miss Toronto ace Roy Halladay, and instead face rookie left-hander Brett Cecil, who was just called up from Triple-A Las Vegas.
That might not be to the Nationals’ advantage, however. Washington has the majors’ worst record against southpaws this year, at 5-13. And the 22-year-old Cecil wasn’t that bad during a stint with Toronto earlier this year, going 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts.
The Nationals have a rookie lefty of their own taking the mound today, Ross Detwiler (0-3, 5.23 ERA), who is still looking for his first major league win. In facing a potent Toronto offense, which is second in the majors in batting at .280, he’s going to have to look a little longer for that initial victory. Take the Blue Jays to bring the Nats back down to earth.
2♦ TORONTO
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees -115 at FLORIDA
Tonight in baseball, I am all about the Yankees as the small road favorite over the Marlins.
I know Jason Johnson is a righteous 6-1 with a 2.76 ERA this season, and is fresh off a complete game win over the Blue Jays, but the New York bats certainly seemed to take to the Miami weather last night as the smacked 13-hits en-route to the 5-1 win over the Marlins.
The Marlins have now dropped 3 of their last 4, and that mark will drop to 4 of their last 5 after they get done watching AJ Burnett make them look like chumps at the plate.
Burnett finally turned in a performance worthy of his new contract, as he worked 7 scoreless frames against the Mets his last time out, and remember this is where he used to do mound work when he broke into the bigs, so it should be a "special" start for him.
Also remember Joe Girardi knows a thing or two about this ballpark, and after his messy exit from the Marlins a few season's ago, you can assume he wants to stick it you know where to the Marlins' front office.
G-Man on the Yankees in this one.
5♦ NY YANKEES
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis at KANSAS CITY
Gave you a FREE winner with the Tigers on Friday night and we're doing it again today as we go with the Cardinals on the RUNLINE at Kansas City against the Royals.
Now this is a rivalry as these two cities and fans and teams just don't like each other. We're playing the Cardinals on the runline tonight behind veteran Chris Carpenter (4-1, 1.59 ERA).
Carpenter has come back nicely this season and he's been able to go at least six innings in each of his last five starts. He has held the opposition to three runs or less in every outing this season and even has a complete-game under his belt on May 30 when he held the Reds to one run on three hits in a 3-1 victory.
The Cardinals got an easy 10-5 win on Friday night and they’ve won three of four from the Royals this season and five of the last six meetings between these two squads.
St. Louis is on runs of 8-2 against American League right-handers and 8-1 in the last nine times they’ve played the second game of a series. With Carpenter on the mound, the Cards are on runs of 78-32 overall, 20-6 in the second game of a series and 28-10 against teams with a losing record.
Brian Bannister (5-3, 4.10 ERA) is on the mound for the Royals. He looked good against the Reds on Sunday, allowing just one run on four hits in eight innings of a 7-1 victory. And when he faced the Cardinals in May he gave up two runs in six innings and the Royals got a 3-2 win. In his career, Bannister is 3-1 in four starts against the Cards with a 4.01 ERA in 24.2 innings of work.
St. Louis will get an easy win in Kansas City in this one. Carpenter is looking very sharp, so play the Cardinals.
2♦ ST. LOUIS -1½
DAVE COKIN
TORONTO BLUE JAYS / WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Nationals are red hot? Well, at least by their standards, as they've managed to win three in a row. There are a few positives on this team of late, certainly due in part to the improved pitching since Randy St. Clair took over the coaching duties. But I'll look for the streak to end here. Brett Cecil has been called back up for the Blue Jays, and I think his deceptive slider will cause problems for the Nats hitters. Ross Detwiler is another talented lefty, but he may not fare as well with the Toronto lineup. I'll lean the Blue Jays way tonight.
JIM FEIST
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / SEATTLE MARINERS
Take SEATTLE MARINERS
The Mariners are also still trying to take a stab at .500 and sit only 5 1/2 games out of the division lead. The Mariners have six guys on their 25-man roster who were fruits of that trade: Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Ronny Cedeno, Garrett Olson and Jason Vargas. Vargas goes here, a guy with a 3.56 ERA who doesn't walk anyone. Arizona can't hit and young starter Billy Buckner has been terrible, with a 7.36 ERA. A great spot for the home team. Play the Mariners.