Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Tough loss yesterday as the Dodgers couldn’t do enough to get the win. That’s fine because we’re coming through with a strong winner today as we’re taking the Mets at home against the visiting Rays.
In Game 1 of this series last night the Mets got over with a solid 5-3 victory to hand Tampa its third straight loss.
Including last night’s win, the Mets are now 19-11 at home this season and are 13-5 their last 18 games in front of the home fans.
On the other side, the Rays are just 14-22 on the road this season and have only 1 win their last 6 road games. Going back a little further, Tampa only has 2 wins its last 12 games away from The Trop.
The Rays will continue their losing ways on the road as the Mets get over in this one. Take the Mets at home in Game 2 of this series.
3♦ METS
Freddy Wills
New York Yankees vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
The line opened with 76% of the public still on the Yankees as they opened being favorites at -110 yet the line moved to the Marlins being the favorites this morning at -107 in many places. Normally I'd be taking the under here based on that movement, but to be honest I just can not fathom taking the under with the Yankees home or away. A-ROD will be out again today for rest and I think the Marlins have an excellent shot at winning this game out right!
Yankees have never faced the RHP and they have not hit RHP as well as LHP. Johnson 6-1 with a 1.07WHIP and 2.76ERA on the season owns a 3-1 record at home with a 2.02 ERA and an amazing 55:10 K:BB ratio. Night ball he owns a 1.80 ERA he just loves pitching at night and against NY as you may know he has dominated the Metsis over his career! Yankees L5 .264 and 3.20 runs per 9 last 5 will have Burnett going on the mound.
Burnett won't have the confidence and comfort of a large lead like he did in his last game with another solid pitcher on the other mound. In his last outing 7IP 0ER vs. Mets the Yankees went on to win 15-0. Burnett who has pitched well in June has struggled on the road 5.19ERA in 6GS. Only Wes Helms has had any time against Burnett, but Helms is a crafty veteran that should be able to give the rest of the team some tips. He is 3-7 with a HR vs. Burnett.
Notables: Marlins are 11-3 with Johnson on the mound this year and 13-3 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 22-6 in the last 28 games he has started. Kellogg behind the plate seems to have a spot in his heart or something for the Marlins as the Marlins are 18-4 the last 22 games he's been there... but probably just coincidence.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -140
We'll take the team with the better record at home behind the better pitching staff. The M's send Vargas to the hill and are 3-0 in his home starts this season, in which he has posted an ERA of 2.04. Plus, the M's bullpen has been sensational with an ERA of just 2.32 in home games. With last night's loss, the D-backs have dropped 5 straight to the Mariners and those struggles will likely continue against the lefty Vargas as the Diamondbacks are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the M's at home tonight.
Drew Gordon
Tampa Bay +105 at NY METS
Now on a 18-6 roll with the plays I'm giving away. For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Tampa Bay/NY Mets match-up.
I know plenty of bettors are expecting the Johan Santana bounce back here, but not so fast! Not only has Santana been anything but reliable of late, but he's up against an excellent Rays offense, that also happens to have their ace on the hill in this one. Read on...
Critics of this play will argue that James Shields ERA is higher on the road, and therefore, this a fade spot. Hold your horses boys, as his 4.15 ERA away isn't terrible, and the fact he's 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA over his last 3 is tough to ignore, especially when compared to Santana. No doubt, I'll take the more consistent Shields over Santana at this point.
Speaking of Santana, he's now 4-2 with a disgusting 6.50 ERA over his last 6 starts! I can understand a poor road effort, but prior to his getting rocked by the Yankees, he got smashed for 5 runs on 8 hits over 7 innings by the Phillies... Not a good sign, if you ask me, especially considering the Rays proficiency at hitting lefties on the road.
When I say the Rays hit lefties on the road well, I mean it, averaging 5.9 runs per game, batting an impressive .301 in the process! Mets average a far less potent 4.5 runs per game against righties at home, and you can rest-assured their injury-riddled lineup is going to have their hands full with Shields in this one. Not only that, but the fact the Mets' bullpen has been a veritable gascan of late cannot be ignored, posting a 7.27 ERA over their L3 games! In the end, Mets-backers are expecting a Santana bounce back here, but I say you're going to have to wait a bit longer. Rays roll!
Take Tampa Bay behind Shields over the NY Mets and Santana in this MLB match up.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
DUNKEL
Tampa Bay at NY Mets
The Mets look to follow up last night's win over the Rays and build on their 10-2 record in Johan Santana's last 12 home starts when the total is set between 7 and 8 1/2. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120)
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 16.145; Colorado (Hammel) 16.083
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+145); Under
Game 953-954: Cleveland at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Ohka) 14.732; Cubs (Lilly) 14.236
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+170); N/A
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.926; Detroit (Figaro) 16.164
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Weaver) 16.328; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.692
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+160); Over
Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.188; NY Mets (Santana) 16.190
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Over
Game 961-962: Toronto at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.255; Washington (Detwiler) 16.284
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Under
Game 963-964: Baltimore at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.811; Philadelphia (Happ) 15.418
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under
Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.444; Florida (Johnson) 15.203
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Over
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 14.046; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.659
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under
Game 969-970: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.734; Boston (Beckett) 15.116
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+160); Over
Game 971-972: St. Louis at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 13.899; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.300
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over
Game 973-974: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.613; Minnesota (Baker) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+175); Under
Game 975-976: Texas at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.646; San Francisco (Cain) 15.635
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.974; San Diego (Silva) 14.452
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under
Game 979-980: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 15.049; Seattle (Vargas) 15.142
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over
WNBA
Chicago at Washington
The Mystics look to bounce back from yesterday's loss at Atlanta and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Washington is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4).
Game 651-652: Chicago at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 105.420; Washington 111.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4); Over
MLB Computer Picks
New York Mets -125
Boston Red Sox -165
San Francisco Giants -160
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LAA Angels
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Dodgers as they face Anaheim slated to start at 9:05 EST. – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone121-105 making 74.9 units since 1997. Play against AL home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season playing on Saturday. LAD are a solid 23-10 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season; 35-14 (+21.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons; 8-2 (+8.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. Torre is 35-14 (+21.1 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start as the manager of LAD. This outing is a spot start for Jeff Weaver (3-1, 3.72 ERA) in place of the injured Eric Milton, but it will enable the brothers to become the first siblings to start against each other since Andy and Alan Benes in 2002. There are 6 years difference between the brothers and experience the LA Dodger offense will dominate. Take the Dodgers.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at Florida Marlins
The Marlins have turned a big profit this year when Josh Johnson is on the hill, including wins in each of the righthander's last five starts. Johnson has allowed more than three earned runs in only one outing this year and that was back in April. Yankees starter AJ Burnett has been very hot and cold this year, including a 15-0 win over the Mets last time out. However, in his last road start he lasted less than three innings in a 7-0 loss to Boston. Burnett's road ERA is 5.19.
Play on: Florida
Tony Karpinski
New York Yankees vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Yankees
The Marlins have now dropped three of their last four, and that slump will get extended after they get done watching AJ Burnett make them look like chumps at the plate. I know Josh Johnson is a righteous 6-1 with a 2.76 ERA this season, and is fresh off a complete game win at Toronto, but the New York bats certainly seemed to take to the Miami weather last night as the smacked 13-hits en route to the 5-1 win over the Fish.
Burnett finally turned in a performance worthy of his new contract, as he worked seven scoreless frames against the Mets his last time out, and remember this is where he used to do mound work when he broke into the bigs, so it should be a "special" start for him tonight in Florida. Also remember Joe Girardi knows a thing or two about this ballpark, and after his messy exit from the Marlins a few seasons ago, you can assume he wants to stick it you know where to the Marlins' front office.
Tom Freese
Ny Yankees at Florida
Play: Under
The Yankees are 17-5-1 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 7-1 UNDER vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of under 1.15. New York is 7-0 UNDER their last 7 Interleague games vs. teams that have a losing record. Starter A.J. Burnett has allowed 8 runs total in his last 4 starts. Florida starter Josh Johnson has allowed 3 or less runs in 13 of his 14 starts this year. Florida is 4-0 UNDER after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game. The Marlins are 5-2-2 UNDER their last 9 home games and they are 8-2 UNDER their last 10 games vs. the Yankees. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Johnson vs. Burnett)
GINA
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Dodgers' Jeff Weaver (3-1, 3.72) is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 9.72 ERA in his last four starts against the LA Angels while with Seattle, 5-8 with a 4.05 ERA in 16 career appearances including 14 starts against them.
Angels' Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five career starts against the LA Dodgers and the Angels have won his last 5 starts and four of his last five versus the Angels.
Go with the Angels with younger brother Jered Weaver on the hill in a brotherly match tonight at Angel Stadium. The Angels have won four of the last five battles against the Dodgers and have been successful against them in Anaheim, winning eight of the last nine contests at home, 21-7 in the last 28 contests at Angel Stadium.
Los Angeles Angels -165
Michael Cannon
NY Yankees at FLORIDA -110
Take the Marlins for the home win tonight over the Yankees.
I had the Marlins last night as a 5 dime bonus play for my clients and they came up short, but I like them to bounce back tonight behind their ace, Josh Johnson.
Johnson has won three straight decisions and the Marlins have won his last five starts. The right-hander has a 3.11 ERA during that stretch.
The Yankees will counter with former Marlin A. J. Burnett. The right-hander has electric stuff but has never been overly consistent in his career. Manager Joe Girardi will not start Alex Rodriguez tonight, as the third-baseman is battling a slump right now.
I know the Yankees still have an imposing lineup, but without Rodriguez and the DH they are two big hitters short in this lineup.
Take the Marlins as they grab the home win.
2♦ FLORIDA
Tommy Gill
Colorado Rockies -1.5 +120
Pittsburgh is a team that is just terrible on the road this season being 14-24 on the road this season and 17-35 road games overall. Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Colorado is the hottest team in MLB winning 13 out of there last 14 games overall. The pitching matchup in this game is Hammel (4-3 4.10 ERA) vs Morton first real start. Morton was terrible for Atlanta last season as a starter. Hammel has been impressive his last 6 out of 7 starts giving up less than 3 runs in 6 outings. I believe that Colorado is going to win this game no problem today
Pirates are 16-46 in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Pirates are 5-15 in their last 20 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rockies are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rockies are 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.
Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Rockies are 14-3 in their last 17 games following a win.
Rockies are 16-5 in their last 21 overall.
Ben Burns
St Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Under
The Cardinals had eight runs in by the third inning of last night's game, finishing with 10. However, I believe that this afternoon's match-up will look a lot more like a "pitchers duel" than a "slugfest."
It's Chris Carpenter for St Louis and Brian Bannister for Kansas City. It's a tale of two comeback players and it's absolutely one worth buying into here. Carpenter has fought through injury issues to return as the Cardinals ace. He is 4-1 this season with an outstanding 1.59 ERA and a 1.69 BAA. Carpenter is arguably one of the toughest pitchers for any major league hitter to face right now. His stuff has so much "nastiness" to it and it's really kept the opposition off balance. The Royals haven't seen him since 2006 so that's also an edge for the hurler.
Speaking of big edges for pitchers, Bannister appears to be "back" for the Royals. After going 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 2007, he struggled through a poor 2008. However, Bannister is back in '07 form now as he's already 5-3 this season with a respectable 4.10 ERA and opponents are only hitting .265 against him. At home Bannister is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA and a .242 BAA.
Note that Bannister beat the Cards (3-2 final) last month at St. Louis and that he allowed just four hits and one unearned run through eight innings in his last start, an 'under' vs. Cueto last Sunday.
Also, before last night's "outburst," the Cards had been held to four runs or less in 12 of their last 15 games. Before last night's 'over,' the Cardinals had gone over just twice, while staying UNDER six times so far this season in interleague action.
As for the Royals, they are a big home dog here. That's worth mentioning as the last three seasons, as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range, the Royals have seen the UNDER go a profitable 35-14. With the o/u line having climbed from 7.5 up to eight at many shops, I feel that the UNDER is worth consideration.
Frank Jordan
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia has dropped 4 in a row at home and is now 13-20 at Citizen Bank Park, so much for a home field advantage. Philadelphia has J.A. Happ on the mound who is 3-0 with an era a touch over 3.50. Look for Happ to break the losing streak with a gem against Baltimore. Play Philadelphia