Michael Cannon
NY Yankees at FLORIDA -110)
Take the Marlins for the home win tonight over the Yankees.
I had the Marlins last night as a 5 dime bonus play for my clients and they came up short, but I like them to bounce back tonight behind their ace, Josh Johnson.
Johnson has won three straight decisions and the Marlins have won his last five starts. The right-hander has a 3.11 ERA during that stretch.
The Yankees will counter with former Marlin A. J. Burnett. The right-hander has electric stuff but has never been overly consistent in his career. Manager Joe Girardi will not start Alex Rodriguez tonight, as the third-baseman is battling a slump right now.
I know the Yankees still have an imposing lineup, but without Rodriguez and the DH they are two big hitters short in this lineup.
Take the Marlins as they grab the home win.
2♦ FLORIDA
LT Profits
New York Yankees @ Florida Marlins
Josh Johnson is pitching better than ever, and A.J. Burnett is starting to reach his peak form after a slow start. With Alex Rodriguez out and the Florida offense struggling, go Under tonight.
Josh Johnson has been great for the Florida Marlins this season, while A.J. Burnett is coming around nicely for the New York Yankees. Add in the fact that Alex Rodriguez is out for the Yanks and the Florida offense has been struggling, and the Under is the play here.
Johnson looks even better now than he did before he had his Tommy John surgery, as he is 6-1 with a fantastic 2.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 98 innings. Furthermore, he has been even better here at home, where he has a 2.02 ERA and a miniscule 0.95 WIP in 58 innings, and most impressively, he has now allowed three runs or less in an amazing 11 consecutive starts, and in 13 of his 14 starts this year.
Meanwhile, Burnett tossed seven shutout innings while allowing only four hits vs. the New York Mets last Sunday, and he has now allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts and in five out of six. He has been rather inconsistent this year, but he is practically unhittable when he is on and he now appears to be in one of his good cycles. He is facing a Florida offense that has scored two runs or less in four straight games.
Finally, both of these starters are making their first career starts vs. their respective opponents tonight, which is usually a big advantage for the pitcher.
Pick: Yankees/Marlins Under 8
Wunderdog
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ offense has been heating up, and last night scored 10 in a rain-shortened game in their win over the Brewers. They will give the ball to rookie pitcher Alfredo Figaro. Figaro earned the start with his 12-2 showing in A ball a year ago, as well as a 1.05 WHIP at AA Erie this season. The Tigers are taking no prisoners in interleague play as they stand at 48-21 in their last 69 and an even better 39-13 at home. Overall they have now taken six straight at home against teams with winning records. Dave Bush has pitched poorly all season and on the road he has led the Brew Crew to a miserable 17-35 mark in his last 52 starts on the road. The Brewers have also been disappointing in interleague road games against right-hand starters, at just 2-10 in their last 12. The Tigers’ bats are roaring and chopping down everyone at home, they get the call here.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +120
The Rockies are on fire, having won 14 of their last 15 games, and I expect them to keep the money train rolling tonight. They send Hammel to the hill, who is 3-0 with an ERA of just 2.45 over his last 3 starts. He has a decent ERA of 4.27 in all starts this season and Pittsburgh is 3-19 against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.8 to 6.5 in these spots. We'll ride the red hot Rockies here to get it done by at least 2 runs.
Stephen Nover
Orioles +$1.30 at Phillies
The Phillies aren't playing well enough to be this big of a favorite especially with young and largely untested J.A. Happ on the mound.
How bad has it been lately for the Phillies? They have lost their last four games by a total of 17 runs. They are 1-6 during their current home-stand with five of the defeats being by three runs or more. They have been terrible at home all season as evidenced by a 13-20 mark.
The Red Sox exposed Happ for the mediocre stuff he throws, scoring five runs on seven hits and six walks off him in just 5 2/3 innings. Happ surrendered three homers and threw 108 pitches. His 3.53 ERA is misleading because he has a high strand rate, which is partially due to his bullpen bailing him out.
Orioles starter Brad Bergesen is another young pitcher. He's 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA. But his ERA is misleading, too, except the opposite way. Bergesen is among the best in the league in ground ball-to fly ball ratio. Bergesen also has excellent control, walking 17 in 71 1/3 innings. He's 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last four starts.
Bergesen is a sinker ball pitcher, the type of pitcher the Phillies can have trouble with especially missing Raul Ibanez.
Sure the Phillies are a better team than Baltimore. But right now the Phillies are at low ebb, have key injuries and are going against a hot, under-the-radar pitcher setting up a nice overlay in this spot.
GREG SHAKER
Tampa Bay Devil Rays at New York Mets
Play: Mets -113
Santana was rocked by the Yankees in his last game and boy did he ever look like Doo Doo. He is a gamer though and he should bounce back strong today. He does have a good chance to do so in a venue that he has thrived at. He has been next to unhittable here at home and is 5-1 with an ERA of right at 2 runs. Shields has not thrown very well away from home this year and it has been a long time since he has even done it. His last 4 thrown has been at Tropicana. His last 2 road games he lost at Florida, and he lost at Boston. The fact is, his team is 0-4 the last 4 times he has hit the road and overall he has not been quite the thrower in this situation. The Mets got a much needed win last night and with Big Ace on the Hill, they are in a good situation to get another one, despite their injury woes they are going through. I will have to say that Under might be worth a look in this contest as well with both Pens ranked very high this year in that department. I have not looked at public betting for this one but I am sure if I did, I would be on their side. They do win sometimes, don't they? Yep. Let's just No-Brainer this one with a nice price for the home team.
Jr Tips
LA DODGERS vs. LA ANGELS
Brothers Jeff and Jered Weaver will face off for the first time, and coming off his first career shutout, Jered will be looking to give thet Angels to an eighth straight victory. Jeff Weaver (3-1, 3.72 ERA) will start in place of the injured Eric Milton and younger brother Jered Weaver (7-2, 2.08) has won his last four starts, allowing four total runs and striking out 29 in 30 innings. He recorded a 6-0 win over San Diego on Sunday. Jered has been very effective in his career against the Dodgers, going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts. Jeff's recent history against the Angels has amounted to an 0-3 record with a 9.72 ERA. The Dodgers (44-24) are averaging just over three runs in the last 20 games and have dropped 17 of their last 21 at Angel Stadum. This 1st time brother matchup should make for good pitchers dual today.
TAKE UNDER 8 1/2 runs
madduxsports dot com - free pick
60% winning run since 2003
Today's Free Pick is LA Angels -170
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
280 - 184 run 60 % 27-14 run here
Sat Colo Rockies
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals
(971) St. Louis Cardinals -$165
(Listing Carpenter and Bannister)
The Cardinals ace starting pitcher Chris Carpenter
has recaptured his Cy Young form. I look for him to
shut down the struggling Royals. Kansas City's starting
pitcher Brian Bannister usually starts the game strong,
but falls apart after five innings. I look for the Cardinals
to get to him the third time through the batting order.
Cardinals win.
2009 Free Selections Record 87-78 (52.7%) 8)
IndianCowboy
Take Under 9.5 between the Toronto Bluejays @ Washington Nationals
I actually predicted the public likely getting buried as they took the Bluejays to a tune of 73% on the road at Washington. But, rather than having the gonads to take Washington, I took the Under yesterday which is an indirect play on them. Today, not much is different as 70% continue to ride the Jays on the road at Washington. And, Vegas has only put Toronto as a slight favorite, simply because Washington is expected to do well today as well with Detwiler on the mound. Detwiler has pitched in 5 straight Unders thus far this year and comes off giving up 4 runs in 6 innings at Tampa Bay. Although he has not picked up a win yet this season, he has quality stuff and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a big game at home today. On top of that, Cecil is a Maryland native as he comes around to pitch at his old stomping ground today. He was born in Maryland and when to the University of Maryland so he should have plenty of family and friends at the game today. Plus, he gave up 8 runs in in less than 5 innings at Beantown in his last game and the Jays ended up losing that game 3-8. I look for both pitchers to pitch well today and this game likely to go Under. The Under is 5-1 for the Jays when they face a righty on the road with this total and the Under is 6-0 for the Nats as a home Underdog of late.
Vernon Croy
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
We are getting great value here tonight with the Toronto Blue Jays who are the superior overall team. The Jays are second in the AL with a batting average of .278 and I look for them to hit Ross Detwiler (0-3, 5.23 ERA) hard today. The Nationals are 0-6 in Detwiler's last 6 starts and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 interleague starts against a left hand starter. The Nationals are just 7-20 in their last 27 games as a home underdog and I look for the Jays to bounce back with lots of run support today for Brett Cecil (2-1, 4.38. Take the Toronto Blue Jays as my MLB Free Play for Saturday night.
Scott Delaney
Now on an 19-9-1 run with the complimentary releases and tonight we're taking one brother over another.
Dodgers manager Joe Torre is expected to hand the ball to Jeff Weaver for his first start since May 20 because injured starter Eric Stults will not by ready and Eric Milton isn't eligible to come off the disabled list until tomorrow. So, we’ll go against him in what will be a historic outing against his brother, Jered. It will mark the first time the two brothers have pitched against each other.
I’d much rather have Jered Weaver, who has turned up the heat in his run for his first All-Star Game appearance. Weaver comes into this monumental outing against big brother after the first complete-game shutout of his career. He was dominant in a five-hit effort against the Padres at home last Sunday, as he walked just one batter while striking out five. The cross-firing right-hander has surrendered a mere 10 earned runs in his past 89-2/3 innings, while yielding one or no runs in six of his past eight starts.
Making matters better for us, Weaver has pitched brilliantly in the past against the Dodgers, going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts. Take the home team here on the run line.
1♦ ANGELS -1.5
Jake Timlin
With last night’s 7-3 victory the Rockies have now won 14 of their last 15 games to remain the hottest team in all of baseball. Well thanks to being at home and playing a weak Pittsburgh team I look for Colorado to extend their winning streak tonight with another blowout.
Helping the Rockies will be their amazing offense that is averaging six runs per game during the run and Jason Hammel who has been dominate over his last three starts going 3-0 with an ERA of 2.45.
Charlie Morton will counter for the Pirates on nine days rest after being injured after throwing just one inning in his debut in a Pittsburgh uniform. Plus, it’s the Pirates who with last night’s loss have dropped their last five games at Coors Field.
No slowing down the hottest team in the league as Colorado blast the Pirates once again tonight.
3♦ Colorado Rockies -1 ½
Craig Davis
Jason Vargas has been very good against his opposition this year, despite his last outing vs. Colorado. Vargas enters tonight's contest with a season ERA of 3.56 and faces an offense that is hitting just .234 vs. lefties. Vargas' last outing vs. a team from the National League that can't hit lefties resulted in seven innings of work, two hits, one earned run and seven strikeouts. I have a feeling we're going to see the same type of performance tonight. Arizona throws Billy Buckner and his 7.36 ERA tonight vs. Seattle, and though I've looked for reasons why I think Buckner could get the job done tonight, I really can't find one. Buckner stinks with a capital S and is obviously not ready to pitch at this level. He's allowed 14 earned runs in his last two games and gave up a career-high 13 hits in a loss to San Francisco. This pitching matchup favors the Mariners entirely too much and I'll be glad to back them in this spot. Take the Mariners as your FREE PLAY of the day.
2♦ SEATTLE
Jack Jones
White Sox/Reds UNDER 8
The White Sox and Reds should stay under the number with a pair of struggling offenses squaring off against a couple of pitchers that are having a lot of success this year. Reds' starter, Johnny Cueto, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He has a 2.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP so far this year, not to mention his amazing line over his past 3 starts: 0.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. Clayton Richard starts for the White Sox, and while he has only 7 starts this season, he has earned a 3.52 ERA over those appearances, including a 2.82 ERA in 4 road starts. Both teams are hovering around 4 runs per game and both are hitting under .250 as a team. This one shapes up to be a very low scoring affair.