Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the coin with the visitors from nearby DC.
Sure Baltimore is a better team than Washington as the Nats have by far the worst record in all of baseball but I still believe that the Nats are semi capable and I don't fully trust Jeremy Guthrie at all right now. Friday night certainly was ugly but Saturday should not be.
The Orioles are an extremely mediocre club overall. When installed as a big-time underdog I don't mind backing Roberts, Markakis, Huff and the boys from Baltimore because they are capable enough but when laying a number like this I have no qualms at all about going against them.
Guthrie's last start against Philadelphia was great but let's be honest here, the righthander has not been good of late and is not the same quality hurler he used to be. In other words one quality start does not show me enough. I therefore can easily see Guthrie get smacked around a bit by Zimmerman, Dunn, Guzman and others and will take my chances backing a decent enough righty in Shairon Martis.
Washington has not been good this season and I'm not going to say otherwise but they are going to win some games as this team is just not that bad, they're really not. Things had snowballed in a bad way early on but of late we have seen improvements, just ask the Yankees, and there are more wins for this team in the near future.
If the Nats win this thing going away I'm not too shocked and that tells it all!
1♦ Nationals
Jake Timlin
With last night’s win all the Red Sox have done against the Braves is beat them 3 of 4 times this season and 6 of last 7 times the two teams have met. Well with Boston a very solid 11-3 when Wakefield starts this season I expect for the Red Sox to improve to 4-1 this season against Atlanta.
Atlanta, meanwhile, won’t be able to put up much of a fight due to having lost 11 of their last 16 games.
Let’s face it Boston is just better than the Braves and it will continue to show in this today.
3♦ Boston Red Sox
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
We came through with a strong win yesterday as the Blue Jays take care of business.
We’re making it 2 in a row today as we’re taking the Twins on the road at the Cardinals.
The Twins come into today having won 3 of their last 4, including their 3-1 win over the Cardinals in Game 1 of this series yesterday. Over their last 16 games the Twins have gone 10-6 and have won 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
Consider, too, that Twins’ scheduled starter Kevin Slowey has been dominant lately as the Twins are 5-1 his last 6 starts.
On the other side, Minnesota gets a shot at the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer, who only has one win his last 5 starts. And over his last 9 starts, he’s only chalked up 3 wins. Consider, too, that at home St. Louis is only 1-2 his last 3 starts and is only 2-3 his last five in front of the fans at Busch Stadium.
Overall, St. Louis is only 1-4 its last 5 games and has lost 3 straight. Today, the Cards will lose No. 4 in a row. Take the Twins on the road in this one today.
3♦ TWINS
Rocketman
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
These two teams come in with similar records on the season as the Cubs are 35-35 this year while the White Sox are 35-38 this year. Chicago White Sox are 9-2 this year when playing on Saturday. Cubs have lost four of their last five games overall. White Sox have won four of their last six games overall. Chicago Cubs are scoring only 3.8 runs per game on the road. Cubs team batting average is low with a .247 average overall, .237 average on the road and .244 average against left handed starters. Much lower than I anticipated this year. Ryan Dempster is 1-4 on the road this year and 0-2 his last 3 starts. Mark Buehrle is 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA overall, 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA at home and 1-0 his last 3 starts. Dempster is 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA overall vs White Sox since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox today!
LARRY NESS
Colorado Rockies @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
The Rockies hit over .300 as a team (.305) while winning 17 of 18 games from June 4-22 but then dropped consecutive games to the Angels on Tuesday (4-3) and Wednesday (11-3). After an off-day on Thursday, the Rockies beat the A's 4-2 last night, giving them 18 wins in their last 21 games. The win also snapped a seven-game road losing streak in Oakland to the A's. Oakland has now dropped 11 of its last 16 overall and continues to struggle at the plate, entering this game with a ML-low .235 team batting average. Rookie Trevor Cahill will try to change his team's "mojo" and why not? He's 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last four starts (all Oakland wins), after going 2-5 with a 4.33 ERA in his first 11 outings.A closer look at his 5-5 (3.38 ERA) season shows that he's had two starts in which he's allowed seven ERs, lasting a total of just five innings in those outings. In Cahill's other 13 starts, he's allowed two ERs or less 12 times, while allowing just three ERs in the other one. Eliminate those two awful outings and the rookie owns a 2.34 ERA in his other 13 starts, which is really quite impressive. Jorge De La Rosa (3-7, 5.85 ERA) gets the start for the Rockies. The lefty opened the season 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA in his first 10 starts (team was 2-8) but is 3-1 in his last four starts, despite a 6.97 ERA. Is he really getting better? I think not and if not for the fact that Oakland is just 10-17 (3.6 RPG) vs lefties in 2009, I'd be "all over" the A's in this one. As is, let's make Oakland a small play.
JIM FEIST
CINCINNATI REDS / CLEVELAND INDIANS
Take OVER
A couple of teams with decent offenses but thin on pitching. The Reds are on a 4-1 run over the total after picking up an extra bat, getting a DH in this Interleague stretch. Young Cincy hurler Homer Bailey still has a ways to go, with a 12.46 ERA. Cleveland is a fine hitter's park and the Indians have been on a 6-3 run over the total. Starter Tomo Ohka is also hittable, with a 4.70 ERA. All in all, look for plenty of hits and runs. Play the Reds/Indians over the total.
DAVE COKIN
DETROIT TIGERS / HOUSTON ASTROS
Take DETROIT TIGERS
The Tigers let a 4-0 lead get away last night, and with it went their seven game winning streak. But I give the Motowners a good shot to get back on the beam here. Figaro did a nice job in his debut, and I expect him to receive lots of run support as the Tigers go to work on Felipe Paulino. I'll lay the small spot with Detroit.
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Yankees
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Yankees over the Mets. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 50-12 80% winning system. Play on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs. Mets are only 7-12 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games over the last 3 seasons. Brief report, but clearly sums up the teams. Take the Yankees.
Alex Smart
Milwaukee Brewers -130
The San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Barry Zito, has an ugly history in Miller Park as is evident by a 0-3 record along with a extremely bloated 10.50 ERA. That is not a good omen for his team, against a Brewers squad, that is at their best vs southpaw starters averaging 5.1 RPG via a 0.344 OBP in 2009. It must be noted that Ryan Braun the Brewers all star hitter, owns a .415 BA (22 for 53) with four homers and 13 RBIs against left-handers this season. I am betting on Zitos negative results under this venue to come back to haunt him in this spot. Final notes & Key Trends: The Giants are 2-15 when Zito starts against NL Central opposition dating back to last season. The Brew Crew are 31-7 L/38 home games against a NL foe like SF with an on base percentage .315 or less.Play on the Brewers
The Spread
Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, 1:07PM ET
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals, 1:10PM ET
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Pick: Minnesota
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, 10:05PM ET
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Boston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Pick: Boston
VEGAS EXPERTS
Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over the last two seasons, the Angels are a perfect 8-0 when coming off back to back wins by four runs or more. In those two games, one a win over Arizona, the other a win over Colorado, they outscored the opposition 23-6. The Dbacks have scored three runs or less in five of their last seven, losing all of those games. Quietly, LA has dominated IL play winning 36 of 52. Another easy winner here.
Play on: LA Angels
LT Profits
Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks
John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels still does not look healthy since coming off of the Disabled List, and with the Halos offense in high gear, we look for a slugfest when they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks today.
Lackey is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy, bit he is obviously not 100 percent yet. He is 2-3 with an uncharacteristic 5.83 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and the alarming part is that he is not getting any better.
He has allowed at least nine hits in each of his last three starts, during which time he has an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He has also thrown 217 pitches over his last two games, which may have an effect on him considering his first start was not until May 16.
Now granted, Doug Davis has pitched much better than his 3-8 record for Arizona, but he has questionable stamina, which means that the bullpen will almost certainly be called upon tonight. That unit has imploded recently with a collective 5.40 ERA over the last 10 games, and the ineffectiveness of that unit is also the main reason that Davis does not have a better record with his 3.34 ERA.
Finally, do not lose sight of the fact that the Angels have scored 12 and 11 runs in their last two games respectively, so they are fully capable of gong Over this total by themselves.
Pick: Angels/Diamondbacks Over 9.5
Nelly
St. Louis + over Minnesota
The Twins pulled out a narrow win last night but the offense has not been productive on the road. Kevin Slowey has a great record but he has not pitched as well as the wins indicate. Minnesota is a lousy road team and the Cardinals should bounce back at home.
Tom Freese
Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
Oakland is 20-7 their last 27 Interleague games vs. lefty starters and they are 66-31 their last 97 Interleague home games. The Athletics are 8-3 their last 11 games as home favorites. Starter Trevor Cahill has allowed 3 runs or less in his last 7 starts. Colorado 23-55 their last 78 Interleague games on the road and they are 15-46 their last 61 Interleague road games vs. righty starters. The Rockies are 1-8 their last 9 Interleague games vs. losing teams. PLAY ON OAKLAND w/Cahill
Dominic Fazzini
Philadelphia +115 at TORONTO
Blue Jays left-hander Brad Mills made his big league debut on June 18 in Philadelphia and wasn’t very effective, allowing four runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings. He threw 94 pitches, including 53 strikes, but was bailed out by his offense and got a no-decision.
Mills makes his second major league start today, and again faces the Phillies, this time in Toronto. He will be opposed by Philadelphia lefty J.A. Happ (4-0, 3.47 ERA), who will be making his seventh start of the year following 12 relief appearances earlier in the season.
Happ is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA as a starter, and is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA on the road. He allowed two runs on 10 hits in six innings last Saturday against Baltimore in his last start.
Happ, who has never faced Toronto, has pitched in 27 big league games in his career (11 as a starter) and hasn’t lost since his major league debut in 2007.
The Phillies have had good success against southpaws this season, at 16-11, and I think they will make Mills’ second start against them as miserable as his first. Go with Philadelphia.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA