Series Preview, Braves-Mets
By Brian Edwards
With the All-Star break looming after this weekend, the Mets and Braves are set to tangle in Queens for a crucial three-game set that could set the tone for the rest of the National League East race.
With Atlanta (50-35, +1071) taking two of three from the Phillies in the City of Brotherly Love this week, it is now 14-1-3 in its last 18 series. Also, the Braves have taken a commanding six-game lead over third-place Philadelphia.
New York (47-38, +856) opens this series three games behind Bobby Cox’s squad. The Mets just lost two of three at home to Cincinnati, including Wednesday’s 3-1 loss as minus-130 favorites. Nevertheless, they still maintain a 29-14 home record at Citi Field.
Atlanta is only 20-25 on the road, but it has played better away from Turner Field lately. In fact, the Braves are 15-11 in their last 26 road games.
The ‘under’ is on a 14-4 run in the Mets’ last 18 home games. For the year, the ‘under’ is 43-38 overall for New York, 25-17 in its home outings. Meanwhile, Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ go 42-39 overall. Totals have been a wash for the Braves (22-22) in their road assignments.
Now let’s take a look at the pitching matchups for all three games of this series…
Friday, 7:10 p.m. Eastern – Tommy Hanson vs. R.A. Dickey
Atlanta RHP Tommy Hanson (8-5, 4.19) had a pair of horrendous starts before bouncing back in his last outing. The right-hander worked 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 4-1 home win over Florida. Hanson fanned eight batters.
Hanson is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA in eight road assignments this year. He is 6-4 with a 3.59 ERA in his 12 starts at night.
Hanson faced the Mets earlier this season at Citi Field, working five innings and giving up just one unearned run while striking out eight batters. He took the loss as the Braves fell by a 1-0 count. For his career, Hanson is 1-1 with a 0.00 ERA in 12 innings pitched against the Mets. He’s walked five and struck out 16.
Hanson owns a 19-9 record and 3.45 ERA in 38 lifetime starts.
R.A. Dickey (6-1, 2.62) is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three home outings this season. The knuckleballer is 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in seven starts at night this season.
The Mets are 6-3 in Dickey’s nine starts.
Atlanta slugger Troy Glaus is 0-for-7 against Dickey, while Melky Cabrera is 0-for-4 against him. Erick Hinske is 2-for-10 off Dickey with one double.
Saturday, 4:10 Eastern on FOX – Tim Hudson vs. Mike Pelphrey
Atlanta RHP Tim Hudson (8-4, 2.44) is 10-5 with a 3.77 lifetime ERA against the Mets. The veteran righty from out of Auburn is 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA in 10 road starts this season.
The Braves are only 9-8 in Hudson’s 17 starts this year. He is 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in five starts for day games.
New York RHP Mike Pelphrey (10-3, 3.39) has already beaten the Braves twice this year in a pair of starts, compiling a 1.42 ERA. However, he’s just 4-5 with a 5.21 ERA in 11 career starts against Atlanta.
Pelphrey is coming off a rough outing in an 8-6 loss to the Reds. The right-hander was reached for seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings pitched.
The Mets are a lucrative 14-4 in Pelphrey’s 18 outings this year.
Pelphrey is 6-1 with a 2.83 in 10 home starts at Citi Field this season. He has been less effective in day games, going 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA.
Jason Bay is 5-for-13 (.385) off Hudson with a double and one homer, while David Wright is 10-for-44 (.227) with just one home run. Rod Barajas is 5-for-10 off the righty for a .500 average with three doubles and one dinger.
Atlanta slugger Chipper Jones is 6-for-21 (.286) with a double and two homers against Pelphrey. Hinske is 3-for-3 off Pelphrey with a double and a homer. Brian McCann has really feasted on Pelphrey, going 13-for-31 (.419) with six doubles and one home run. Ditto for Martin Prado, who belted a pair of homers in Wednesday’s win at Philadelphia. Prado is 7-for-15 (.467) against Pelphrey with four doubles and one homer.
Sunday, 1:10 p.m. ET. – Derek Lowe vs. Johan Santana
Atlanta RHP Derek Lowe (9-7, 4.40) is 3-4 with a 7.01 career ERA against the Mets.
Lowe got no run support in his last outing, a 3-1 loss at Philadelphia against Roy Halladay. He’s 0-2 in his last three starts despite posting an outstanding 2.75 ERA.
Lowe is 3-4 with a 4.75 ERA in nine road assignments this year. However, the veteran righty is 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in five starts for day games this season.
New York LHP Johan Santana (6-5, 3.15) has always had tough luck against the Braves, posting a 1-5 record despite a 2.25 ERA in nine career starts.
Santana is 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in nine home starts, but he is 1-4 with a 4.03 ERA in eight starts for day games.
Matt Diaz recently came off the DL for the Braves and hit his first home in Wednesday’s win at Philadelphia. Diaz will certainly be in the lineup vs. Santana because he’s 12-for-23 (.522) with a double and a homer off the southpaw.
Glaus is 9-for-26 (.346) off Santana with three doubles and two homers.
Wright is 7-for-19 (.368) off Lowe with a pair of doubles, while Barajas is 5-for-9 (.556) with a double. On the flip side, Bay is hitless in 15 career at-bats vs. Lowe.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Who said Billy Wagner didn’t have anything left? The veteran southpaw closer is 5-0 with 19 saves and a 1.27 ERA for the Braves this season. Wagner has fanned 55 batters in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He worked a perfect ninth and threw just 12 pitches in Wednesday’s close-out game at Philadelphia. Therefore, with Thursday’s off day, he’ll certainly be available if a save opportunity arises Friday night.
Atlanta is 17-10 in day games this year, while the Mets are 12-13 in afternoon affairs.
Atlanta is 14-13 against lefties this season.
vegasinsider.com.