Sinking NL Contenders
By: Nelly's Sportsline
With less than two months left in the MLB season there is still time for major changes to take place in the standings. The number of serious contenders should shrink in August and here are two teams in the National League that could fall out of the playoff picture in the coming weeks. Take advantage by going against these teams in many upcoming situations.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have started the week with a three-game win streak to show a bit of life despite a tough start to the second half of the season. Some may expect a run from Los Angeles with a couple of recent additions but the road ahead looks challenging for a team that has lacked consistency. Los Angeles is just 10-15 since the break and although many feel that the Padres and Giants are vulnerable on top of the NL West, the upcoming schedule should bury the Dodgers deeper.
Los Angeles is on the east coast in Philadelphia this week and so far this season Los Angeles is 2-8 in games on the east coast. The Dodgers are actually 8-22 in the 30 games played in the Central or Eastern Time zones. This week the Dodgers play on the road against AL East playoff contenders Philadelphia and Atlanta before returning home for a difficult home stretch of games. The Dodgers will only play one series against a losing team in the rest of August, a three game set in Milwaukee and the Brewers have proven to be a potential spoiler team. In September the Dodgers will play 16 of the final 25 games on the road which will make for a very difficult finish. Most of the games are within the division but with a 23-30 season road record Los Angeles will have a hard time picking up ground.
The Dodgers simply lack a pitching staff that can compete in the NL West. With Dodger Stadium, AT&T Park, and Petco Park playing as great pitching parks, starting pitching is of extreme importance in the NL West. Adding Ted Lilly at the trade deadline can help the cause but he has endured a disappointing season. Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley have not been consistent this year and Clayton Kershaw does not provide enough innings to fit in as the ace of the team even though his results can be outstanding at times. Vicente Padilla has provided a recent boost but in comparison with the rotations that the Padres and Giants, and even the Rockies offer, the high end quality is not present.
The Los Angeles bullpen has also failed to provide the dominant results that the unit had last season. Jonathan Broxton has converted 21 of 25 save opportunities but he has been less overpowering than last season and is simply not getting enough chances. Hong-Chih Kuo has been an excellent left-handed specialist but there have been too many disappointments in the pen, notably George Sherrill and Ramon Troncoso. Adding veteran Octavio Dotel adds some depth and experience to the staff but he has not looked nearly as sharp in the set-up role after closing all season in a pressure-void atmosphere for the Pirates. While Los Angeles has the offensive pieces to compete in the NL West, especially with recent additions of Scott Podsednik, Ryan Theriot, and Jay Gibbons, the pitching does not appear to be able to compete, especially with the quality staffs presented by the current West leaders.
Cincinnati Reds
While it has been a nice season for the Reds, yesterday ' s brawl-marred loss to St. Louis could be remembered as the possible negative turning point in the season. This was a huge series for Cincinnati hosting the Cardinals and going down with a 0-3 result hurts significantly. In addition to the psychological advantage gained by the recent series win, St. Louis will also have a much more favorable path to close out the division. The race has a razor thin margin at this point in the season but St. Louis should pull away in the coming weeks while the Reds fall victim to a difficult schedule and not enough pitching depth.
31 of the final 49 games of the season for the Cardinals will be against losing teams and St. Louis will get to host the final series of the season with the Reds. While St. Louis closes the season with a four-game set with the Rockies, they also play the Pirates six times in the final two weeks of the season and have a heavy dose of the Cubs, Astros, Brewers and Nationals over the next two months. St. Louis will have more home games than road games the rest of the way to add to a 38-18 record at Busch Stadium while the Reds will face a tough path down the stretch with road games and tough competition.
Not to take anything away from what the Reds have done this season, but the schedule at this point in the season has been light. Cincinnati has gone 10-3 against the Cubs, 7-2 against the Astros, and 7-5 against the Pirates. That means Cincinnati is a sub-.500 team against the rest of the league. The Reds went just 8-7 in interleague play despite getting one the easiest interleague schedules in baseball, playing six games against Cleveland, three against Kansas City, three against Seattle, and three against Oakland. The Reds have also played zero games on the road in the NL West, a very competitive division stacked with quality teams and tough venues. Cincinnati went 0-3 in Seattle this year so the difficulty of playing on the west coast for eastern teams should not be underestimated.
The Reds pitching is also unable to compete with the rotation presented by the Cardinals. With Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter St. Louis owns two of the top pitchers in the NL. St. Louis owns the second best team ERA in baseball and the fifth most quality starts. With Jaime Garcia, a strong rookie of the year candidate, St. Louis also has a far better third starter than most teams. With Jeff Suppan and Jake Westbrook the Cardinals have a capable back of the rotation even if the team gets nothing from Brad Penny or Kyle Lohse the rest of the way.
Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo have been solid this season but expecting both to continue the current pace the rest of the way may be a stretch. Neither has the shutdown potential that the top two St. Louis starters have either. Rookies Mike Leake and Travis Wood have provided quality outings this season but neither has been tested in big games in a pennant race and in Leake's case his endurance will be severely tested with almost 130 innings already to his credit. Edinson Volquez is a wild card for Cincinnati but the early returns have not been that promising in his return from major surgery. Overall the Reds have received average pitching results and as the schedule stiffens the strain could be greater particularly on a bullpen that has taken 20 losses already this year.