Six reasons why you should bet MLB totals
By Teddy Covers
You don’t have to lay big prices
Charlie Morton was arguably the worst starting pitcher last year. The Pirates went 2-15 in games that Morton started and his 7.57 ERA was no fluke. The linesmakers aren’t idiots by any stretch of the imagination – the Pirates were a substantial underdog just about every time Morton took the mound, so betting against him would require the side bettor to lay a big price. But you didn’t have to lay more than -110 or -115 betting Morton Over the total in those starts and you would have cashed in repeatedly by doing so.
Similarly, the linesmakers consistently install high prices on the favorite when the A-list starters take the hill. Why lay a big price to support Roy Halladay of the Phillies or Felix Hernandez of the Mariners when you can bet the Under at -110, assuming much less risk with the same potential reward?
Books don’t have much wiggle room
Baseball totals generally range between a low of 7 and a high of 11.5, with the occasional 6.5 or 12. Even when two hot-hitting teams face two mediocre starters, the total is not going to come to 14.
Similarly, when two cold-hitting teams face two dominant starters, the total is not going to come lined at 5. It’s very difficult for the linesmakers to compensate enough within the limited confines of the standard range of totals. The books don’t hesitate to price a dominant favorite at -300 or higher, but they don’t have that same ability to adjust when setting totals.
The books are not as confident
Each sportsbook sets limits on the amount that can be bet on any particular wager. The casual bettor rarely runs into the sportsbook limits, normally several thousand dollars or more on side wagers. But the bookmakers do not set high limits like that for baseball totals, and many sportsbooks are reluctant to take wagers above $500 or $1,000.
Part of the reason stems from the issues noted above, in terms of wiggle room. Part of the reason is that the books get very little square money on MLB totals – they’re up against the professional bettors. And you don’t remain a professional bettor for very long unless you are beating the bookmaker with relative consistency.
That means that the books don’t get balanced action on the majority of baseball totals that they hang. But as much as anything, the low limits on totals are for one reason alone: The linesmakers aren’t confident that they can withstand high-stakes wagers from informed bettors.
Streaks don’t get noticed
When any baseball team wins eight straight games, they’ll be catapulted to the lead story on ESPN and noted by bettors and linesmakers rather quickly. The hot team might have been priced as a -140 favorite in their first game of the streak, but with the same two pitchers on the mound following eight straight wins, they would be much closer to being a -200 favorite, because of the added public money backing that club.
But the general public doesn’t notice over/under streaks. No pundit in the country could tell you that the Arizona Diamondbacks were the single strongest Over team in baseball in 2010, nor could any TV talking head tell you that the Baltimore Orioles were the No. 1 Under team in baseball last year.
Did you know that Joe Blanton of the Phillies and Kevin Correia of the Padres were the top starting pitchers for Overs last year, while Livan Hernandez of the Nationals and Jered Weaver of the Angels were the top Under starters? This streak strategy works for both pitchers and teams.
These type of streaks tend to feed upon themselves, extending onwards indefinitely. A few years back, the Dodgers went under the total 99 times, but over only 53 times. The Red Sox, on the other hand, went over the total 95 times while going under the total only 63 times.
I know a handicapper who took a three-week vacation that summer, betting just the Dodgers Under and Red Sox Over every game while he was gone. By the time he returned to his daily capping, he was up more than 15 units, just riding the streaking teams again and again.
And this makes perfect sense. Teams who are struggling at the plate tend to press, lose confidence and get out of their normal rhythm. Teams that are hitting well gain confidence, are more selective with their swinging and generally have better at-bats.
Likewise, teams that are getting good starting pitching don’t overuse their bullpens, leaving the pens much fresher, which is better than the teams that are getting lousy starting pitching, who are forced to rely on overused and tired bullpens.
You can be only half right and still win your bet
Let’s say, Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros and Josh Johnson of the Marlins are slated to face one another in Florida, with a total of 7.5 for the game. With two of the top pitchers in the NL on the mound, it’s easy to make a case for the under. But even if one of the two starters gets hit hard, a 6-1 final score going under the total is still well within the range of possibility.
It’s a similar story with weaker pitchers. If the same two teams meet, but with Nelson Figueroa taking the hill for the Astros against the Marlins Chris Volstad, the total would probably be in the 9.5 or 10 range. Over bettors can cash their tickets even if Volstad pitches a rare gem, because Figueroa could still get rocked and an 8-3 final is certainly not out of reach.
Umpires have over/under tendencies
In baseball, the home plate ump has a huge impact on the game, more so than any other referee in any sport. And home plate umpires are no secret. You can easily find out which ump is slated to be behind the plate for any given game. There’s no question that different umpires have different strike zones.
Umps that have a slightly wider strike zone allow the pitchers to get ahead in the count more often, while umps with a tighter strike zone force pitchers behind in the count on a consistent basis. Pitchers get rattled when close calls at the plate don’t go their way, while they gain confidence when they are getting those close calls.
Tim Welke is a well known over-type umpire, 37-24 to the over in the past two seasons. Mike Reilly is 38-24 and Jim Reynolds is 36-21 to the over during that same timeframe. On the other end of the spectrum, we’ve got a well-known under umps like Doug Eddings - more unders than overs in every year since 2004, including a 20-10 mark to the under last year. The wiseguys hammer just about every John Hirschbeck game under the total. His 27-year track record of consistent unders is truly remarkable.