SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Erin Rynning

Playmaker: Pittsburgh

Cleveland
Red Sox/Blue Jays Under
Mariners/Angels Over

BEN BURNS

End of the Month Blowout

I'm laying the price with CHICAGO. I've won with the Cubs each of the last two days. In the "writeups" for those selections, I've noted that while the Dodgers are off to a terrific start overall, that their road record is "nothing special." I've also mentioned how important a series this is for Chicago. Not only were the Cubs struggling but the Dodgers had swept them in last year's playoffs. A loss today and the Cubs only get a split. However, a win gives them a series victory and a small measure of payback for last October. With three wins in their last four, the Cubs are suddenly the "hotter" team. I expect them to carry that positive momentum into this evening's game and look for them to hand the Dodgers their first three game losing streak of the young season. Milton was solid for the Dodgers in his last start, as he allowed just one run. However, he only pitched five innings and he did give up seven hits, including a home run. Also, that start came vs. a Colorado team which was really struggling at the time. While he also gave up one run in five innings, Marshall was arguably better in his last start. That's because he gave up only four hits, recording 6 K's (Milton had 3) without allowing a home run. While Milton has only made two starts (went only 4 innings in the previous) Marshall has now made seven starts for the Cubs. He's got a respectable 3.82 ERA in those starts (3.70 ERA including bullpen work) and has gone 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA his last three starts. While he doesn't deliver any complete games, Milton has now allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and 16 of his last 19. He didn't allow more than five runs in any of those 19 starts. As for Milton, even with the Dodgers earning a victory in his last start, his teams are still a brutal 1-8 his last nine starts. That dates back to an 11-3 loss here at Wrigley in 2006. Note that Milton gave up six earned runs in just 1/3 of an inning in that effort. The Cubs won that game by a score of 11-3. Milton's previous start against the Cubs also resulted in a blowout loss, a 9-3 Cubs victory in June of 2006. As for Marshall, the Cubs have won both his starts (both also in 2006) against the Dodgers. I expect "more of the same" here this evening. *"End of the Month Blowout"

TOW

I'm playing on Seattle and LA to finish OVER the total. After back to back low-scoring games to start this series, I expect the bats to finally come alive this afternoon. Ervin Santana, who missed the first 30+ games due to an elbow injury, has struggled since joining the team. In fact, in three starts he's gone 0-2 with an awful 7.81 ERA and 2.131 WHIP. He was particularly brutal last time out, giving up seven earned runs in just a single inning. The final score was 17-3. Santana did pitch very well in his previous start. However, that was against these very same Mariners, meaning that the Seattle hitters have seen him less than two weeks ago. Additionally, note that the Angels bullpen has really struggled. Even before blowing another save yesterday, the LA relievers had a combined 5.88 ERA and 1.672 WHIP, with those numbers coming in at 5.55 and 1.741 here in Southern Cal. Olson was admittedly very sharp last time out. However, that was against the lowest scoring team in the National League (Giants) and he had the advantage of facing them for the first time. In his only other start, he allowed five earned runs in six innings. Even with both those games sneaking below the total, Olson has still seen the OVER go 13-6 his last 19 starts, dating back to last June. Additionally, Olson has an ugly 8.30 ERA and 2.076 WHIP in two starts vs. the Angels. He last faced them here last August. That matchup also came vs. Santana. (The total was 9.5.) Olson lasted only 2 2/3 innings and he gave up six runs. The final score of 9-4 finished comfortably above the number. I expect more of the same this afternoon. *TOW

Rated Picks

Toronto Blue Jays +108

Cincinatti Reds +180

Maddux Sports

3 units Philadelphia -132
3 units Boston -116
3 units Minnesota +151
3 units Baltimore +113

Dave Malinsky

6* Yankees/Cleveland Under 10.5
4* Pirates
4* Phillies
3* Rangers

BIG AL

At 2:10 pm our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Chicago White Sox. You can argue about whether Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay, or Johan Santana has been the better starter over the first couple of months of the season, but there is no argument about which one is the most surprising or most improved. That honor goes to Greinke in a walkover. To be sure, Greinke had very good numbers in 2008, but the way he is going, he is on track to have about the best numbers since Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez were in their prime. And yet because he pitches for Kansas City, it's never a given when he goes out there that he's going to end up with a "W" at the end of the game. Although they are improved from last season, the Royals are still a sub-.500 squad and will probably end the season that way. But he gets this start at home and against a team with a very similar record to the Royals. After the destruction that KC experienced at the hands of the White Sox on Friday, and its loss last night, rest assured that Greinke will have revenge on his mind. Yesterday's loss was especially heartbreaking, as the White Sox scored two runs in the top of the ninth inning on Saturday to win the game against KC's bullpen. So don't be surprised if Greinke goes all the way this afternoon, and the bullpen has the afternoon off. If he does go the distance, it would already be his sixth complete game of the season. Indeed, Greinke is pitching in rarefied air this season. With an ERA of 0.84, he's the first pitcher since SF's Juan Marichal in 1966 to have an ERA under 1.00 through his first 10 starts. Take the Royals.

ROOT

CC - NY Yankees
Mill - Pittsburgh
Perfect Play - Chi Cubs

Teddy Covers

Big Ticket: Pittsburgh

C Jordan

400* Texas -1.5

100* Padres/Rockies Over

Dr. Canada

Pens +120

Pens/Wings Over 5.5

Rocketman

5* Detroit Tigers

IC Comp Pick (4-0) this week.

Take Over 9.5 between Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Sunday @ 4:30pm). I've always said, the edge always goes to the hitter or the team who got spanked by the other in the game before. For example, we rode both the Angels pitcher and the Mariners pitchers yesterday because in the previous game they were roughed up by both teams for 11 runs. Consequently, the second time these two teams met, the total run output was 7 runs (4-3) game and even that needed 3 runs in the top of the 9th and another run in extras as the game still went under. That is the same philosophy we take today as Atlanta is likely to have some success against Scherzer today. Bear in mind the Braves were roughed up by Scherzer last time out as he went 6 innings in Atlanta, and gave up just 4 hits and 0 runs. He pitched briliantly. Having said that, I believe the Braves get to him early this time out as they have now had a chance to see his stuff and his honeymoon period will come to an end as teams will see him for the second and third time. Medlen is a young arm the Braves have that they are hoping will give them solid work due to several injuries on their pitching staff. The young 23 year old has been struggling averaging around a hit an inning, and he will likely get hit for his fair share of runs as well. The Over is 7-1 when the total is set at this range for the Diamondbacks and the Over is 4-1 with Campos' Sunday games behind the plate.

Lenny Del Genio

Detroit Tigers

Ron Raymond

Dodgers/Cubs Under