The Sports Advisors
Golden State (46-30, 34-42 ATS) at New Orleans (53-22, 46-27-2 ATS)
The red-hot Hornets look to extend their four-game winning overall streak and their 10-game home winning streak while staying atop the Western Conference playoff standings when the Warriors come calling inside the New Orleans Arena.
New Orleans has won nine of its last 10 overall (7-2-1 ATS) and beat the Knicks 118-110 at home Friday, coming up short as a 15½-point favorite. The Hornets have the top record in the West, 1½ games ahead of the Lakers and Spurs.
Golden State is wrapping up a four-game road trip tonight, having lost two of the first three both SU and ATS. After falling in San Antonio (116-92 as 8½-point ‘dogs) and Dallas (111-86 as five-point pups) on back-to-back nights Tuesday and Wednesday, the Warriors got back on track with Friday’s 117-86 win in Memphis as 9½-point favorites.
Don Nelson’s Warriors have been battling with the Nuggets and Mavericks for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, with Dallas in seventh place, one game ahead of both Golden State and Denver.
The road team has won both meetings this season, with New Orleans scoring a 116-104 win in Oakland on Jan. 4 as a 2½-point ‘dog and Golden State returning the favor 116-103 in the Big Easy on Jan. 30 as a nine-point pup. The Warriors have won four of five in this series and are 5-1 ATS in the last six. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
New Orleans has won 10 straight at home (9-1 ATS) with the only non-cover being Friday’s win over New York. The Hornets are on ATS streaks of 20-7 at home and 19-7 against the Pacific Division.
Golden State is on ATS ruts of 7-15 against Western Conference foes, 9-28 following a SU win and 8-17 after a spread-cover.
The over is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head matchups, 10-4 in the Warriors’ last 14 against the Southwest Division and 10-4 when the Warriors are an underdog. The over is also 6-2 in the Hornets’ last eight, 14-6-2 in their last 22 home games and 5-1-2 in their last eight as a home favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Dallas (47-29, 33-39-4 ATS) at Phoenix (51-25, 36-37-3 ATS)
The Suns try to make it eight straight wins inside US Airways Center when the Mavericks pay a visit in this battle between perennial Western Conference playoff squads.
Phoenix, which pummeled Minnesota 117-88 as a 15½-point home chalk on Friday, has won 11 of its last 14 games overall (9-4-1 ATS) and has seemed to figure out how to use newcomer Shaquille O’Neal in the offense. After struggling early with O’Neal (losing six of nine), the Suns have gotten about 16 points and 10 rebounds a game from the big man since, and nobody has benefited more from O’Neal’s production than forward Amare Stoudemire, who is averaging 31 points and 10 rebounds a game over the last eight.
Dallas is just 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine overall, but the Mavericks have gotten the cash in their last three, including Friday’s 112-108 road loss to the Lakers as five-point ‘dogs. With that defeat, Avery Johnson’s club dropped to 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in its last four on the highway.
The home team has won the last three in this series, but Phoenix is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five battles. In the two clashes so far this year, the Mavericks scored a 108-105 home win on Dec. 19 and pushed as three-point favorites, while the Suns rolled 109-97 on Feb. 14, cashing as a 7½-point chalk. The straight-up winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series meetings.
After Friday’s rout of the TWolves, the Suns have won and cashed in seven straight home games. Mike D’Antoni’s squad is also on ATS runs of 8-1-1 as a favorite, 5-1 against the Southwest Division and 8-1-1 against the Western Conference.
The Mavs are just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning home record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against Western Conference foes and 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU loss. However, Dallas has cashed in seven of its last 10 road contests and 11 of its last 15 when returning to work after one day off.
The over has been the play in three of the last four series meetings and is 9-0 when the Mavs’ are an underdog and 7-2 with the Suns as a home favorite. However the under is 10-2 in Dallas’ last 12 Sunday tipoffs and 6-2 the last eight time the Suns have been a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
San Antonio (52-24, 35-39-2 ATS) at Portland (38-38 SU and ATS)
The Spurs try to clinch a spot in the Western Conference playoff and beat the Blazers for the 14th straight time when the two meet inside the Rose Garden.
San Antonio had a chance to wrap up a playoff berth Friday in Utah but turned in its worst offensive performance of the season, losing 90-64 as a three-point ‘dog. The loss snapped the team’s eight-game overall winning streak (7-1 ATS) Spurs and a three-game road winning streak (3-0 ATS).
Portland has dropped four straight (1-3 ATS), including Thursday’s 96-85 home loss to the Rockets as 6½-point underdogs. The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 in front of the home fans and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 against team with a winning SU record.
San Antonio has dominated this series, winning 13 straight and going 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Both battles this season have been in San Antonio, with the Spurs getting a 106-97 win on Oct. 30 but coming up short as 13-point favorites and then winning 100-79 on Dec. 2 as a 14-point chalk. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head.
Gregg Popovich pulled his starters early in the fourth quarter against the Jazz so they should be well rested for this one as the Spurs try to improve on positive ATS marks of 10-3 in their last 13 Sunday tipoffs and 5-0 in their last five when they get a day of rest.
The over is 3-1 in the last four series clashes, but the under is 6-2 for the Spurs in their last eight on the highway and 42-20-1 in the Blazers’ last 63 against the Southwest Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (3-2) at San Diego (4-2)
After splitting the first two games of this series, the Padres send righty Chris Young (1-0, 1.59 ERA) to the mound today to face off with the Dodgers’ Derek Lowe (0-0, 3.00) at Petco Park.
The Dodgers pounded out a 7-1 win on Friday night thanks to a six-run seventh inning, but behind another masterful performance from ace Jake Peavy, San Diego evened the weekend series with Saturday’s 4-1 win. L.A. had won three straight meetings in this rivalry before yesterday after the Padres had won eight of the previous 10. Finally, San Diego has won seven of the last 10 head-to-head clashes at Petco.
The 6-foot-10 Young held opponents to a .194 batting average in 2007 and had a major-league leading 1.69 ERA in 13 starts in Petco Park. And in his first outing at home this season, he held the Astros to one run on five hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 2-1 victory on Tuesday.
In eight career starts against the Dodgers, Young is 1-2 with a 2.98 ERA. Tonight, he gets to face a lineup that was completely frustrated yesterday by Peavy, who held Los Angeles to just two fourth-inning hits and struck out eight in a complete-game effort.
Lowe gave up two runs and nine hits in six innings of work in his debut Tuesday, but wasn’t around for the decision in the Dodgers’ 3-2 win over the Giants. This is his first road start after going 6-8 with a 4.19 ERA in 18 outings on the highway last season.
Lowe is 0-3 with a 3.41 ERA in six career starts at Petco Park, but his offense is partly to blame, getting just 15 runs in those six outings. Last year, the veteran righthander went 1-1 with a 5.30 ERA in three starts against the Padres, including lasting just 4 1/3 innings back on Sept. 1 when San Diego and Peavy blanked the Dodgers 7-0.
The over is 5-3 in the last eight series meetings overall and 5-2 in Young’s last seven starts against Los Angeles. However the under is 4-1 in Lowe’s last five overall and 4-1-1 in his last six with the Dodgers’ as a road underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (3-3) at Toronto (3-2)
The Red Sox send 20-game winner Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA in 2007) to the mound for the first time this season at the Rogers Centre north of the border as they try to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays and ace Roy Halladay (0-1, 3.86 ERA).
The Blue Jays have won six straight against the Red Sox, including five in a row inside the Rogers Centre. In the first two clashes of this series, Toronto has outscored Boston 16-5, including Saturday’s 10-2 blowout win.
Beckett returns from the disabled list as back spasms forced him to miss his scheduled opening-day start against the A’s in Japan on March 25. When last he pitched in meaningful action, the righthander was dominating hitters in the 2007 postseason, going 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in helping Boston to another World Series title.
The runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting was 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA in three starts against the Blue Jays last season, including a showdown with Halladay on Sept. 4 when Beckett allowed three runs on five hits in eight innings of a 5-3 win. However, Boston is just 2-5 in Beckett’s last seven outings against Toronto, while the Jays are just 1-5 in Halladay’s last six against the Sox.
Halladay opened the season in New York on Tuesday, giving up three runs on seven hits in seven innings and was saddled with the 3-2 loss. Today, he returns home, where he was phenomenal last season, going 11-1 with a 3.12 ERA – although Toronto did lose both of Halladay’s home starts against the Red Sox last year by scores of 5-3 and 8-0.
Despite throwing an eight-inning complete game in his Sept. 4 matchup against Beckett – giving up five runs on nine hits – Halladay only went 1-3 with a 5.94 ERA in five starts against the Red Sox last season.
The under is 4-1-1 in the last six series meetings in Toronto, 5-2-1 in Halladay’s last eight home starts against Boston and 12-5-1 in Beckett’s last 18 road outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics
I'm playing Sunday's tilt between the Indians and A's to go Over the posted total. Joe Blanton has struggled in his career against the Indians, who put up almost five RPG in road day games against righties last season. Meanwhile, Cliff Lee has been a disaster against the Athletics. The southpaw has been popped for a 7.59 ERA in his last couple of starts in this venue. The A's should get to Lee early and often. Oakland smacked lefties in home day games for almost six RPG last season and had no trouble at all yesterday against southpaw C.C. Sabathia. Look for those trends to continue and for this contest to sail Over the total on Sunday afternoon.
Play on: Over
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
The New York Knicks have absolutely, flat out mailed it in for the season. This is a team that has lost 17 of 19 games overall. Things don't look to get any easier Sunday evening against Orlando, even in Madison Square Garden. For starters, the Magic have covered 8 of the last 10 series meetings. Orlando remains one of the most profitable road teams in the league, covering 24 of 37 contests away from home this season. Make it 25 of 38 after Sunday.
Play on: Orlando
John Ryan
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Francisco Giants
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Francisco – I simply love playing against big favorites in MLB. If you simply bet against every MLB favorite lined at -250 and higher you will make some money – not a fortune, but a strongly probability of profits over the course of the season. When a massive dog is graded a 3* it obviously is a very good opportunity. Do not forget though that there will be rare occasions where the AiS does identify a significant favorite as a MAJOR play. Generally, like the NHL where nearly 85% of my plays were 3* Live Major DOGS, the same can be expected in MLB this season. Supporting this graded are several key angles and I will present two of them. SF is 14-9 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more RPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 81-96 (-31.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
James Patrick Sports
Lakers vs. Kings
Lakers – Kings Over the Total
Dave Cokin
Mariners @ Orioles
Play: Mariners -130
Erik Bedard's hip is acting up, so he won't be able to face his former team as Seattle and Baltimore continue their weekend wraparound set. Felix Hernandez moves up a day to take this start, and King Felix was very strong in his '08 debut. The same cannot be said for Jeremy Guthrie, who got lit up just as he mostly did down the stretch last season. Big edge on the hill for the M's and off back to back losses to the Birds, Seattle will be fired up to win this one. Lay the spot with the Mariners.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Baltimore w/Guthrie vs Bedard
Note: Orioles take on former teammate Eric Bedard and the Mariners in the finale of this weekend series with extra motivation on their side. That comes from the fact that Bedard opted to sign with Seattle during the off-season rather than resume his career with Baltimore. With Jeremy Guthrie having completed a strong spring camp (16 strikeouts against 3 walks), look for the Birds to get the best of Bedard and the Mariners.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: St. Louis Blues at Columbus Blue Jackets
Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets
Reason: Teams playing the back end of a home and home with St.Louis taking it last night. The home team has taken all 7 meetings this season and look for that trend to continue this afternoon. Blues struggling to score on the road this season averaging 2.3 goals/game while the Jackets have allowed just 2.4 goals/game on home ice. Play on Columbus -.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Boston (Beckett) - 105** over Toronto (Halladay)
Boston looking to get back on track off losing the first two games of this set went 2-1 in three Beckett starts vs. Jays last season. Toronto went 1-3 in four Halladay starts vs.Sox last season.
San Diego (Young) - 140* over LA Dodgers (Lowe)
San Diego is 9-5 last 14 meetings off beating the Dodgers 4-1 on Saturday. Young made one home start vs. L.A. last season, winning 1-0, allowing three hits over seven innings.
Chicago White Sox (Buehrle) + 155* over (at) Detroit (Verlander)
Verlander is 1-4 life vs. the White Sox with a 5.96 ERA. Buehrle went 1-0 in two starts at Detroit last season, allowing four runs over 15 innings. White Sox are 9-3 last 12 meetings.
Ross Benjamin
Cleveland (Lee) @ Oakland (Blanton)
Pick: Oakland -135
Joe Blanton has been outstanding in his home starts since 2005 with over 70% of his starts in the role being the quality variety. In 2 career starts at home versus Cleveland Blanton has posted an excellent 1.23 ERA. In 2 starts at Oakland since 2005 Cliff Lee has posted a lofty 7.59 ERA with both resulting in Indians losses. Lee has struggles on the road since 2005 with only a little over 33% resulting in quality starts. Oakland has dominated the Indians at home since 2005 going 10-4.
Play Oakland
Jimmy Moore
Cleveland @ Oakland
Pick: Oakland with Blanton -135
Reason: Take the A's to get the sweep over the visiting Indians who are struggling to win when not playing behind one of their two big pitchers.
Psychicsportspicks
NBA
3 units Dallas +5
MLB
1 unit San Fran Giants +225
1 unit St. Louis -145
DA STICK
NHL
10 units New Jersey -135
10 units Detroit -150
MLB
5 units San Diego -140
10 units Boston -110
10 units Cleveland +120
WINNINGPOINTS
***BEST BET
*Phoenix over Dallas by 16
Since Jan. 31 the Mavericks are 4-10 SU in their last 14 away contests through March 29 with three of the four victories occurring against weak sisters Memphis, Minnesota and Miami. Dirk Nowitzki still may be out. The early start time works against Dallas, off a Friday night road game against the Lakers. The Suns are 6-0-1 ATS during their last seven Western Conference matchups through March 30. Grant Hill has been holding up and Boris Diaw is playing better, while Amare Stoudamire and Steve Nash continue to put up monster numbers. PHOENIX 112-96
***BEST BET
Orlando over *New York by 19
The Magic have covered 67 percent of their last 42 road games through March 27. The Knicks are helpless in the pivot against Dwight Howard and lack the defensive toughness to match up against Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. If you discount their two games against the offensively-challenge Heat, the Knicks were giving up an average of111.3 points in their last 11 games through March 28. ORLANDO 120-101.
TEDDY COVERS
Arena Football
Orlando Predators +7.0 (-110) / 5 units Orlando has come on strong following their awful 0-2 start, winning three straight heading into Sunday afternoon’s ESPN2 battle with the red hot Chicago Rush. There aren’t many home fields in the AFL that are worth much, but the Jungle is most assuredly one of those home fields, particularly for big games like this one. Chicago ’s defense deserves an enormous amount of credit for their early season success, but it’s not like the Rush have been playing a litany of strong offensive clubs. They held Grand Rapids , Colorado and Arizona to 35 points each over the last three weeks. Grand Rapids subsequently cut their starting quarterback and went on an offensive tear. Colorado QB John Dutton has struggled mightily all year, as has Arizona ’s Jeff Smoker, particularly against quality defenses.
The Rush ‘D’ takes a major step up in class this week against Shane Stafford and the Predators offense. Since a rough start at Philly, Stafford has guided the team to 30 touchdowns in 39 meaningful drives in their last four games. Head coach Jay Gruden: “Shane Stafford, Chas Gessner and TT Toliver (the Predators two leading receivers) are playing really well on offense right now.” Stafford has averaged more than ten yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks. Don’t expect Chicago to have the same level of defensive success this week as they have in recent weeks, not even close.
The Predators were truly awful defensively for the first three games of the season, allowing 25 touchdowns on 28 meaningful drives against them. Through those first three weeks, Orlando ’s defense didn’t record a sack or an interception – nary even a pass breakup. But Gruden made a handful of personnel changes, even leaving star defensive end BJ Cohen at home this past week. Suddenly, Orlando is getting stops consistently, with a much better 11 touchdowns in 19 meaningful drives ratio in their last two games, holding both opponents to 45 points or less. Rob Schroeder notched the first safety of the year at Columbus this past weekend, while Jason Hall helped the team record a season high three sacks. Gruden, following the win: “The defense played great. We showed some signs of life and really got after (Columbus QB Matt) Nagy in the first half.” In a game that should come down to the final possession, I’m quite comfortable supporting the home underdog in a very attractive price range. Big Ticket: Take Orlando . Current Line: Orlando +7
Bobby Maxwell
This should be a stellar pitching matchup as the Red Sox Josh Beckett returns from the disabled list and jumps into the thick of things, facing the Blue Jays and ace Roy Halladay.
Beckett went 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA last season and was untouchable in the postseason, going 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA to help the Red Sox win their second World Series in four seasons. And now he's called on to help Boston avoid a sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays. Toronto blew out the Sox 10-2 on Saturday and have outscored them 16-5 in the first two games.
Halladay was good and not great in the season opener in New York on Tuesday, giving up three runs on seven hits in seven innings and got saddled with the 3-2 loss. And while he was dominant in Toronto, the Red Sox won both times they faced him north of the border, 5-3 and 8-0. In fact, the Blue Jays are just 1-5 in Halladay's last six against the BoSox.
With the way the Red Sox have gotten to Halladay and the way they have lost the first two games of this series, look for Boston's offense to come out focused in this one. Not many teams are going to sweep the Red Sox and I don't see it happening in this one.
Play Beckett and Boston to win this one.
3* BOSTON
Jim Feist
HOU Rockets and LA Clippers.
Take "Under".
Houston is outstanding defensively, allowing 92 ppg -- fourth best in the NBA. They take on an LA Clippers team that struggles to score because of injuries and terrible shooting, averaging 94 ppg -- second worst in the NBA ahead only of Miami. The Clippers are 24-14 under the total at home. Houston is still battling for playoff positioning and will bring their A-game on defense. These teams met once this season and Houston won 88-71, going under the total by 29 points.
Rockets/Clippers under
Dr. Vegas
San Antonio at Portland
These teams opened the regular season in a game which San Antonio won by 9 but didn’t cover the 13.5-point spread. They met again on December 2, in bigger Spurs blowout, 100-79, and in fact covered the massive 15-point spread. At this point in the season, it’s a pitting of one of the pack leaders against a team squarely in the middle of the field. Taking a look at the numbers yield a few more clues. The Spurs are 52-23 straight up, and 35-39-1 against the number. Their average margin of victory on the road is only +1.1. They’ve played to an average total of 187.1, and have covered 7 of their last 8, which follows an 0-9 ATS streak. They have a power rating of +14.5, with a rather weak opponent PR of -0.2.
Portland is an unimpressive 38-36 straight up and 37-37 against the spread. They have won their home games by an average of 3.8 points per game. They’ve played to an average total of 191.8 and have lost 3 of their last 4 against the spread. Their power rating is a weak -2.1, but their opponent PR is actually slightly higher than the Spurs, with a +0.4 number. These teams are going in opposite directions. The Spurs are jostling for position in their divisional playoff hunt, while Portland appears to be on the short list of teams to be eliminated from the playoffs this week. The Spurs should have no problem putting this away early, but it’s a matter of where the line falls and where Portland’s future lies as of Sunday morning.
San Antonio