Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Hornets -6 over Warriors
Major League Baseball
Redsox +110 over BlueJays
Brandon Lang
15 Dime Suns
5 Dime Brewers Run Line
5 Dime Orioles
FREE PICK - Hornets and Rockies
ATS Consultants
Newsletter Plays
Sunday, April 6
MLB
Cleveland over Oakland - Pref.
Over in the Pittsburgh/Florida Game - Pref.
NBA
Phoenix over Dallas 113-91 Best Bet
Since the Suns acquired Shaq, they started out slow, then won seven games in a row, then ran into trouble on an East coast trip. Now they are just 1.5 games behind the leaders in the West, but are in sixth place?!? The Suns have the major advantage now that Dirk Nowitzki is likely out for Dallas. Look for the Suns to pound J.Kidd and the Mavs.
Orlando over NY Knicks 109-92-Pref.
Portland covers over San Antonio 98-99-Pref.
NHL
Pittsburgh over Philadelphia - Pref.
Over in the New Jersey/NY Rangers Game - Pref.
Under in the Minnesota/Colorado Game - Pref.
Ferrall
JACKETS -140 on ML over Blues--St.Louis beat them Saturday so the jackets return the favor Sunday. The home team has won all seven games in this series this season.
SHARKS +110 on ML over Stars--San Jose isn't afraid to kick anyones ass anywhere. They are the best road team in the NHL-bar none ! Dallas is 3-8-2 in March and that's a bad sign heading in to the playoffs against Anaheim. Sharks are 18-1-2 lately and lost to LA Thurs. Dallas has lost 4 straight at home.
ANAHEIM -155 on ML over Coyotes--This one is automatic as Phoenix just wants it to end. Coyotes have dropped four of five on road recently. They are 2-7-1 since March 15th. Ducks have second best home record behind detroit in NHL. They are 27-9-4 at Honda. They don't play well against the Coyotes, but they'll kick their ass tonight
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on NY Yankees -1.5 +102 (listing Wang and Shields)
The Rays are a pathetic 9-43 in their last 52 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 4-13 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rays are 3-14 in Shields' last 17 starts as a road underdog and 0-7 in Shields' last 7 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Yankees are 20-6 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series, 8-1 in Wang's last 9 starts during game 3 of a series, 5-0 in Wang's last 5 Sunday starts, and 23-6 in Wangs last 29 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Yankees have this game in the bag. We'll play them on the run like to add value as we have them winning by at least 3 runs.
PHILLY CONNECTION
Chicago Cubs
Nick Parsons Sunday
Play ON Philadelphia Flyers Money Line vs Pittsburgh @ 3 ET The Flyers played a huge game on Friday and came up big in their shutout home win over the Devils. That clinched a playoff spot for the Flyers but now they have an opportunity to move up in the playoff standings and they wont let this opportunity pass them by. If they lose this game, the Flyers will have to face the Penguins in the first round as Pittsburgh will move up to the #1 seed and the Flyers will drop to the #8 seed. If they win this game the Flyers can move up to the #6 seed and they would then match-up with the # seeded Capitals. Even though Washington has been hot, the Flyers would much rather take their chances with the Capitals than with the Penguins. This is why you can expect the Flyers to give another stellar effort like they did against the Devils on Friday. Philadelphia started out their season series with the Penguins by dominating them. However, Pittsburgh has since held the upper hand in this series and the Flyers now have revenge on their mind. With a 6-1-1 run on home ice, Philly comes into this game very confident. Note that the Penguins, as well as they have been playing, have only won three of their last nine road games and it will be enemy ice that is again the difference maker here as the Flyers have a chance to prevent their in-state rivals from notching the #1 seed.
Insider Sports Report
5* Seattle (Bedard) -130 over Baltimore (Guthrie)
Range -115 to -150
4* Texas (Padilla)/L.A. Angels (Garland) UNDER 9.5
Range 10 to 9
3* Dallas/Phoenix (NBA) OVER 216.5
Range 215 to 218.5
ETHAN LAW
Well we came up one run short in our selection yesterday on this Giants team and I think its very fair to say that nobody will be betting on them in this contest and most people will being playing this game on the run line. I would also not be surprised if this is one of the more heavily bet games of the day because on paper, this one is a total mismatch. As I stated in yesterdays analysis, this is a Giants team that is just terrible from what we have seen. Without the presence of Barry Bonds in the line-up it is a team that has virtually no offensive threat and has arguably the very worst line-up in the entire MLB. But I will reiterate what I said yesterday, because it is very important that you understand the reason for this selection. However, even the very worst teams in the league are often the best money makers because the odds makers will continue to adjust and over inflate in the lines against the bad team creating some wonderful betting value for the opportunistic and educated bettor. We all witnessed what happened Friday when Milwaukee thrashed San Francisco 13-4 and they are fresh off a 5-4 win on Saturday. To make matters worse, everybody was waiting for them the face a left-hander given the fact that Milwaukee absolutely decimated left-handed pitching last season (where they averaged a whopping 5.6 runs per game last season) and they get to take their licks against Barry Zito, a pitcher who the Brewers killed last season as he lost both of his starts to them while recording a 12.54 ERA, his highest against any club. To make this game even more one-sided is the fact that Milwaukee is sending their Ace to the hill in right-hander Ben Sheets who has absolutely dominated this San Francisco team in his career as he has posted a miniscule 2.68 ERA against them. From all of this one thing is clear, from the average handicapper and the public, this game is a total mismatch. However, this mismatch does NOT WARRANT the posted line set in this contest as I almost fell off my chair when I saw that the line opened with Milwaukee as a -$220 favorite, which has since been bet up to -$230 & -$240 in some shops. That fantasy line is nowhere near what the true line in this contest should be and that is in the neighborhood of -$145 to -$150.
Despite everything I have stated above, there is some (albeit not much) support to those of us who will play this selection based upon the value of the line. First, the Milwaukee right-hander will be working on an extra day of rest because Brewers manager Ned Yost elected to leave his five starters in order despite some off-days. Although I was unable to find Sheets records when pitching with an extra day of rest, I can say for certain that these pitchers are very habitual. Once you disrupt that, we often see some flat performances even from the very best hurlers in the league. Moreover, for as bad as the Giants were last season, they were nevertheless a club that excelled in day/road games against right-handers as it was the only situational setting where their offense came alive as they averaged an impressive 5.3 runs per game. We also know that the San Francisco left-hander does his best work on the road as he does own an impressive .580 career road winning percentage with 58 wins to 42 loses. As we articulated yesterday, San Francisco performed admirably against some of the better offensive teams in the national League (scoring 4.8 or more runs per game) as they were 14-9 +$930 over the last 2 seasons, and their average margin of victory is a surprising 1.3 runs per game. We also can revisit the fact that Milwaukee seems to be at their worst against teams with a losing record as they are 81-96 -$310 over the last 3 seasons. Thats pretty powerful stiff when you consider we are getting better then 2:1 on our money.
Verdict: San Francisco 6, Milwaukee 5
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON SAN FRANCISCO +$215
EZ WINNERS
2 STAR: (917) BOSTON (-$103) over Toronto
(Listing Beckett and Halliday)
(Risking $206 to win $200)
2 STAR: (904) CLEVELAND (+$124) over Oakland
(Listing Lee and Blanton)
(Risking $200 to win $248)
BIO-RHYTHM PLAY
1 STAR: (902) FLORIDA (+$112) over Pittsburgh
(Listing Vanden Hurk and Snell)
(Risking $100 to win $112)
1 STAR: (904) CINCINNATI (+$118) over Philadelphia
(Listing Volquez and Myers)
(Risking $110 to win $118)
1 STAR: (911) HOUSTON (+$185) over Chicago
(Listing Backe and Zambrano)
(Risking $100 to win $185)
1 STAR: (925) TEXAS (+$153) over LA Angels
(Listing Padilla and Garland)
(Risking $100 to win $153)
NBA
2 STAR: (503) DALLAS (+6) over Phoenix
(Risking $220 to win $200)
MIKE ROSE
Major League Baseball
Toronto Blue Jays (100) / 3 units 3* TOR +100
New York Mets (-140) / 2 units 2* NYM -140
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (135) / 3 units 3* DET (-1') +135
BEN BURNS
BASEBALL
MINNESOTA
Game: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. After losing the likes of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, the Twins are likely in for a fairly tough season. However, this is one team which they're still fully capable of beating. The Twins have already taken the first two games of the series and I feel that this afternoon's matchup gives them an excellent shot at completing the sweep. I successfully played against Bonser in his first start and the Twins lost 9-1. That was against the Angels though, a much tougher opponent than the Royals. Off that loss, the price on Bonser has come down into a very reasonable range today. I watched that game though and, after the first inning, Bonser was actually a lot sharper than the final score indicates. Overall, he gave up three earned runs (1 unearned) in six complete innings. He had 4 K's and 0 walks. Those aren't Jake Peavy type stats but they aren't that bad for the first start either, particularly against such a strong team. He was quoted after that game as saying: "I was just happy to get the first one out of the way. I settled down afterwards and got going." Now, Bonser's got a game under his belt, is stepping down significantly in class and his team has started to gather some momentum. Keep in mind that he's got "nasty stuff" and that he lost about 30 pounds in the offseason, determined to have a big year. While Bonser's got real potential in this league, Tomko is on the downside of a less than mediocre career. This is his 12th big league season and he's only ever had an ERA below 4.00 once, his first season back in 1997. Last year, splitting time between the Padres and Dodgers (two teams much better than KC!) he went 4-12 with an awful 5.55 ERA. Now he's fighting to be the fifth starter on one of the league's weakest teams. The last time that Tomko started at Minnesota was in 2005, while pitching for the Giants. He was fortunate to get plenty of run support that day but still gave up seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. Don't expect him to be so fortunate, in terms of run support, this afternoon. Yesterday's loss dropped the Royals to 15-38 in the month of April the past few seasons and 35-60 when playing during the afternoon. Look for those numbers to get even worse as Bonser outpitches Tomko and the Twins complete the sweep. *AL GOW
COLORADO
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies Reason: I'm laying the price with COLORADO. The Rockies have gotten off to a tough start offensively, which has led to a 1-4 record. However, I expect them to break out of their offensive funk in a big way this afternoon. Colorado slugger and 2007 NL batting champ Matt Holiday broke out of his 1 for 14 slump with a pair of hits yesterday. Today, he'll face Edgar Gonzalez, who has never gotten him out (4 for 4 with two doubles) in his career. Note that Todd Helton, who has hit home runs in back to back games, has two HRs in just six at bats vs. Gonzalez, who had a 5.03 ERA last season. . Overall, Gonzalez has an ugly 9.00 ERA in eight games - two starts - all-time against Colorado. He lost the two starts, both at Colorado, by scores of 11-1 (last September) and 10-2, failing to pitch more than four innings in either start. Franklin Morales gets the call for Colorado. While he's still very young, Morales showed that he is capable of pitching at this level when he came up late last season. Indeed, the 22-year-old southpaw closed out the season by going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last four starts. Today, he'll have the advantage of facing Arizona for the first time. The Rockies were a profitable 52-46 (+11.3) in afternoon games the past two seasons. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Diamondbacks were a money-burning 42-54 (-9.7). Look for the Rockies to bounce back and avoid the sweep, improving to 11-4 the last 15 series meetings. *Personal Favorite
UNDER Tigers/Sox
Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Tigers and White Sox to finish UNDER the total. Both these starters would prefer to forget about their Opening Day start. Verlander only gave up four hits in six innings in his first start. However, he allowed four runs en route to a 5-4 extra inning loss. Buerhle was worse, as he got ripped by the Indians. Let's not make the mistake of over-reacting to one start though. Verlander is the Tigers' #1 guy while Buehrle has quietly been one of the most solid and consistent starters in the AL this entire millennium. Indeed, Buehrle is the only starter in Chicago history to make 30 or more starts, while recording 200 or more innings, in seven consecutive seasons. Last week's result notwithstanding, he's a stellar 107-75 with a 3.84 ERA for his career. That includes a 12-8 record with a lifetime 3.14 ERA against the Tigers. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a profitable 15-7-1 during that stretch. As a team, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 5-2-1 their last eight games against left-handed starters and 50-40-8 the past few seasons. Verlander, who was 10-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 17 home starts in 2007, doesn't have overly impressive career stats against the White Sox. However, he has delivered three straight "quality starts" (minimum of 6 innings with 3 runs or less) against the Sox and has seen the UNDER go 6-1 his last seven starts against them, with those seven games averaging a combined seven runs each. His most recent two starts against the Sox resulted in a 3-2 loss and a 4-3 loss. With yesterday's game staying below the total, the UNDER is now 5-1 the last six series meetings here and 7-2 the last nine series meetings overall. I look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip
NBA
SONICS
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Seattle SuperSonics
Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. Not many people will like the Sonics here but I feel that the situation is strongly in their favor. The Nuggets are off a hard fought loss to Sacramento. That game, which came in the high altitude of Denver, was not only physically demanding but was emotionally disheartening. Note that the Kings were playing without Ron Artest and Brad Miller, two of their best three players. The Nuggets were sloppy, turning the ball over numerous times. It was their first home loss against a losing team in 2008. That defeat dropped them to an eighth place tie with the Warriors, a team they already may be thinking about as they face them this Thursday. Regardless if that's the case, I feel that the Nuggets will have some trouble focusing on the 'lowly' Sonics, as they've absolutely crushed them in all three meetings. Note that Denver is just 2-7 SU/ATS the last nine times it played the second of back to back games and a money-burning 94-134-7 ATS (41%!) in that role the past decade. The earlier losses should provide plenty of motivation for the Sonics, who are currently a bigger home underdog than they have been at any time this decade. While they have admittedly struggled of late, the Sonics remain a profitable 11-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half. They'd love nothing more than to bounce back and deal the Nuggets a major blow to their playoff hopes. I expect the Sonics, who had yesterday off, to be highly motivated to avoid being embarrassed again. Look for them to deliver their best effort and for that to be more than enough to hang within the inflated number. *Contrarian GOM
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-MLB
My Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Padres
Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB (1st of '08 / current 7-2 MLB run!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Col Rockies
15* Pitching Mismatch of the Week (7-2 in MLB reports the L4 days!)
My 15* play is on the Phi Phillies
Tony Matthews
10* Phoenix Suns
Ethan Law
UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK!
Washington
Players of America
Sport: NBA
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Seattle SuperSonics
The Play: Denver Nuggets -11.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Play: Boston Red Sox +100.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
The Play: Los Angeles Dodgers +125.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics
The Play: Cleveland Indians +120.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
The Play: Detroit Tigers -155.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)