THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (6-5) at Philadelphia (6-6)
The Phillies try for a three-game sweep over the Cubs when they send veteran southpaw Jamie Moyer (1-0, 4.66 ERA) to the mound against Chicago’s Jason Marquis (0-0, 6.75) at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia dominated Chicago 7-1 on Saturday after taking the series opener 5-3 on Friday. The Cubs, who arrived in Philly riding a five-game winning streak, have dropped consecutive games for the first time since opening the season 0-2. Meanwhile, the Phillies are in the midst of an odd pattern to start the season, as they’ve followed up a two-game losing streak with a two-game winning streak three times.
Moyer got knocked around in his first start of the season, allowing six runs (three earned) on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings, though the Phillies bailed him out in an 8-7 home victory over the Nationals. He rebounded with a solid outing at Shea Stadium on Tuesday, holding the Mets to two runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-2 Phillies’ win.
Moyer only saw the Cubs once last season and gave up four runs on nine hits in five innings of a 5-4 loss, but did beat them twice in 2006, allowing a combined four runs on 12 hits in 13 innings. Philadelphia is 4-1 in Moyer’s last five home starts, 6-2 when he’s a favorite and 6-1 when he’s started on Sunday.
Marquis was shaky in his first start this season eight days ago, giving up five runs (four earned) on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings at home, with Chicago rallying for a 9-7 win over the Astros. He faced the Phillies once last year and held them to three runs on eight hits in six innings of a 7-3 win at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are just 3-7 in Marquis’ last 10 road starts and 1-5 in his last six when he faces an N.L. Central Division foe.
The Phillies are now 13-5 since 2006 against the Cubs, including 6-1 in the last seven in Philly. Also, they’re 38-17 in their last 55 Sunday games and 7-1 in their last nine at home against a right-handed starter. Meanwhile Chicago is 13-7 in its last 20 as an underdog, but just 21-44 in its last 65 against N.L. East squads.
The under is 10-4 in the last 14 series clashes in Philadelphia, 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings overall, 11-5 in the Phillies’ last 16 against right-handed starters and 15-4 in the Cubs’ last 19 against southpaw starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (6-6) at Boston (6-6)
The Red Sox send Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-0, 1.47 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park to face the Yankees and Philip Hughes (0-1, 5.00) in the deciding game of these rivals’ initial three-game series of 2008.
Boston has alternated wins and losses in its last six games after holding off the Yankees 4-3 in Saturday’s rain-delayed contest. Meanwhile, although that victory snapped New York’s modest two-game winning streak, it remains 7-2 in the last nine meetings with Boston and 4-2 in the last six battles at Fenway.
Boston is 3-0 in Matsuzaka’s first three starts this season, with wins over the A’s in both Japan and Oakland, as well as a home victory over Detroit. Dice-K has given up three runs on eight hits in 18 1/3 innings of work.
Going back to last season, the Red Sox are 5-0 in Matsuzaka’s last five overall and 4-0 in his last four outings at home. However, they’re just 2-7 in Matsuzaka’s last nine against American League East teams.
Matsuzaka faced the Yankees four times in his rookie season in 2007 – twice at home, twice on the road – going 2-1 with a 6.12 ERA.
Hughes got knocked around in Tuesday’s start in Kansas City, giving up three runs on six hits in just three innings of a 5-2 loss. He threw 87 pitches and walked four against the Royals. On the bright side, the Yankees are 6-1 in Hughes’ last seven starts overall and 5-0 in Hughes’ last five starts against the American League East, though the young right-hander has yet to face the BoSox in his brief career.
The over is 21-7 in the last 28 series clashes in Boston, but both meetings this weekend have stayed under the number. Also, the under is 11-1 in the Yankees’ last 12 overall (7-0 in the last seven), 5-0 in the Yankees’ last five against division foes and 6-0 in their last six on the road. The under is also on streaks for Boston of 5-1 at home, 6-2-1 when facing a righthander and 5-1 at Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
NBA
San Antonio (54-25, 36-41-2 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (55-25, 45-34-1 ATS)
The Lakers pulled into a tie for the top spot in the Western Conference playoff race Saturday without even playing and now try to take a half-game lead when the Spurs visit the Staples Center.
Los Angeles is in a deadlock with New Orleans after the Hornets lost to Sacramento 94-91 Saturday, while San Antonio sits a half game behind the Hornets and Lakers. Los Angeles, which scored a huge 107-104 home win over New Orleans on Friday night, holds the tiebreaker over the Hornets should they end up with identical records.
Although the Lakers are on a 6-1 SU run, they’re just 2-5 ATS during this stretch, including failing to cover as a five-point home chalk on Friday against the Hornets.
With two games left, both at home, the Lakers carry a 28-11 home record into this contest, but they’re just 18-21 ATS, including failing to get the cash in each of their last seven in the Staples Center. Los Angeles is also in ATS funks of 1-8-1 against Southwest Division foes, 1-5 on Sundays and 0-4 against teams with a winning road record.
San Antonio has won 10 of its last 12 games (8-4 ATS) including Friday’s 95-74 home rout of the Sonics, cashing as a 15½-point favorite. The Spurs trail the Hornets by a game in the race for the Western Conference top spot and the Southwest Division title. After today San Antonio travels to Sacramento on Monday and hosts Utah in Wednesday’s regular-season finale.
The Spurs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 against teams with a winning overall mark. But Gregg Popovich’s team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing on a day of rest and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 on Sundays.
The home team is 3-0 in this series this season, with the Spurs up 2-1 (3-0 ATS). San Antonio won the most recent meeting 103-91 as an eight-point favorite on Jan. 23,and the Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Lakers in Los Angeles. Finally, the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
The under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings overall, but the over is 11-5 the last 16 series clashes in the Staples Center. The under is also on current runs of 4-0 for the Spurs and 3-1 for the Lakers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Houston (54-25, 46-31-2 ATS) at Denver (48-32, 43-37 ATS)
The scenario is clear for the Nuggets as they host the Rockets inside the Pepsi Center: They must win their final two games to secure the eighth spot in the Western Conference and earn a ticket to the playoffs.
After closing a five-game road trip with Saturday’s 124-97 loss at Utah as six-point ‘dogs, Denver has two games left to clinch a postseason berth, both at home, where the Nuggets are 31-8 (24-15 ATS) this season, including 7-2 ATS in the last nine. After today’s contest against the Rockets, the Nuggets, who are tied with the Warriors for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff berth, host the Grizzlies on Wednesday.
Denver has followed up a five-game winning streak by going 3-5 in its last eight. The Nuggets are also 3-6 ATS in their last nine after going 9-1 ATS in their previous 10. The key win for George Karl’s club came Thursday at Golden State when it prevailed 114-105 as a four-point road pup to take a one-game lead over the Warriors – a lead it game back when lost on Saturday and Golden State beat the Clippers. Denver holds the tiebreaker after winning the season series against Golden State.
Houston comes into this one having won five in a row both SU and ATS, including Friday’s 101-90 upset home win over the Suns as a three-point underdog. The Rockets are essentially locked into the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs, which would mean a first-round matchup with Utah for the second straight year.
The home team has won all three games in this series this season with Houston taking the March 2 matchup 103-89 as a five-point favorite. The lone game in Denver saw the Nuggets get a 112-111 overtime victory but fail as an eight-point favorite. Houston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight series clashes and 4-0 ATS its last four trips to the Mile High City.
Rick Adelman’s team is on ATS runs of 37-16-1 overall, 6-0-1 against Northwest Division teams, 16-6 on the road and 10-4 as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are on ATS streaks of 5-0 against Southwest Division squads, 10-3 as a favoriteand 5-2 on Sundays.
The over is 6-2 in the last eight series clashes in Denver, 5-2 in the last seven for the Rockets on the road, 4-1 for the Rockets as an underdog, 24-11 for the Nuggets overall, 5-1 for the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back, 5-1 at the Pepsi Center and 22-8 when Denver is a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DCI
NHL
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game 3, best-of-7
Montreal vs. BOSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Jersey vs. N.Y. RANGERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Game 2, best-of-7
WASHINGTON 3, Philadelphia 2
Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game 3, best-of-7
San Jose vs. CALGARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NBA
CLEVELAND 101, Miami 87
L.A. LAKERS 101, San Antonio 97
DETROIT 99, Toronto 89
Orlando 103, CHICAGO 100
DENVER 105, Houston 104
Dallas 106, SEATTLE 96
COMPUTER PLAYS
Atlanta Braves - 130
Philadelphia Phillies - 125
Chicago White Sox - 130
Kansas City Royals - 115
BEST BET
Boston Red Sox - 150
BRAD DIAMOND
Play on: Arizona over Colorado
The Rockies were the Cinderella team last season in major league baseball. However, they set up Sunday with a current 0-5 mark against the Snakes in the month of April. With RHP Edgar Gonzalez on the hill Arizona appears to be on the right track for another series win. You see, the Snakes (won 8 straight)are 6-1 L7 meeting versus RHP Cook (Colorado). In addition, Arizona is a perfect 8-0 on grass and 8-0 versus the National League West. Finally, and the clincher, the Rockies are 0-5 on Sunday with RHP Cook.
JIM FEIST
Seattle allows over 106 ppg, thats 4th worst in the NBA. Thats not surprising, as they have a young team with shooters. They also have nothing to play for, and it shows as the Sonics have allowed the opposition to score over 100 points in 20 of 24 games. In the last month they had games allowing 168, 130 and 147 points! Dallas has a powerful and versatile offense that will have no trouble scoring. Look for a late season offensive show, play the Mavericks/Sonics over the total
DAVE COKIN
Greg Maddux is off to a fast start for the Padres. The same cannot be said for Dodgers righty Chad Billingsley, whose command problems have resurfaced this spring. Billingsley should eventually find his rhythm but until he does he's worth fading as a favorite. I'll take the Padres here
Ross Benjamin
Atlanta (Glavine) @ Washington (Redding)
Play On: Under 9.0
Atlanta starting pitcher Tommy Glavine is off to an impressive start with Atlanta posting a 0.79 ERA in his first 2 starts. In 6 starts at Washington since the 2005 season Glavine has posted a very good 2.09 ERA. Glavine has gone under the total in 9 of his last 10 starts versus a team with a losing record. Granted the new ballpark in Washington is more hitter friendly than RFK Stadium but the Nationals have not taken advantage of it. The Nationals were hitting just .192 as a team at home going into their Saturday game versus Atlanta. The Washington starting pitcher Tim Redding has posted an excellent 0.82 ERA in his first 2 starts of the season. He only lasted 4.0 innings in his last start versus Florida mainly due to some shoddy defense that allowed the Marlins to score 6 unearned runs. Redding is 1-12-1 under the total in his last 14 starts as an underdog. Play on under the total
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Seattle is a phenomenal 20-4 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 and starter Erik Bedard has lead his teams to wins in 21 of 30 starts overall. The Mariners should be happy to see Angels southpaw Joe Saunders considering they are 28-14 vs. southpaws. Seattle lost 13 of 19 to the Angels last season, which cost them the division title, but the M's seems to determined not to let that happen this year as they are poised to pull of the three game sweep here. The Angels offense has been struggling mightily leaving 18 runners on base and going 4 of 22 with runners in scoring position.
Play on: Seattle
JEFF BENTON
For Sunday, well stay on the diamond and play the DBacks as a small favorite against the Rockies.
So, do you think the DBacks are still a little bit ticked off at the way the Rockies ended their season last year, sweeping Arizona out of the NLCS I mean, my goodness, the Snakes have attacked the Rockies to the tune of five straight wins since last Friday. The combined score in those five contests? Arizona 38, Colorado 10. Not bad, eh
Overall, Arizona comes into today having won eight in a row (five against the Rocks, three against the Dodgers), scoring 8, 7, 5, 9, 10, 4, 8 and 10 runs in the process! Meanwhile, Colorado has scored as many as four runs in a game just twice all season, and has been held to two runs or fewer seven times! Finally, to truly grasp the fact that these two squads are heading in opposite directions, just look at the team stats. The DBacks are batting .280 as a team, while Colorado is batting .228. The DBacks have a 2.57 team ERA; the Rockies have a 5.06 ERA. And when you break those down to home/road numbers, Arizona is hitting .327 at home (Colorado .211 on the road) and Arizonas team ERA is 2.80 at home (Colorados is 6.15 on the highway).
If thats not enough to convince you, perhaps this will do the trick: The Rockies are sending Aaron Cook to the mound today. Cook has a beefy 5.13 ERA in his career against Arizona, including 6.06 ERA in seven games (six starts in Arizona), with the Rockies going 2-8 in his last 10 against the DBacks, including 1-5 in the desert.
You get the picture. Play the red-hot DBacks and lay the small chalk.
7* ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Based on a 1* to 10* rating system)
JAKE TIMLIN
Sunday selection is the Cincinnati Reds.
A few weeks into the baseball season and a new few stars have emerged, but maybe the biggest one of them all is the Reds Cueto who has been flat out unhittable. Cueto 1-0 in two starts the righty has posted a 0.45 WHIP & 2.02 ERA pitching 13 1/3 innings while striking out 18 and holding opponents to a .136 BA. Meanwhile for the Pirates Gorzelanny his number are just the opposite as the lefty is 0-1 (team 0-2 in his starts) with a 10.80 ERA. Well thanks to lop side numbers talk about not needing to over think this one today as I look for the Reds to get another strong outing from Cueto as Cincinnati?s offense will tee off on Gorzelanny and the Pirates staff.
All Cincinnati today!
TONY WESTON
Were sticking with baseball but switching leagues and looking at one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports: Yankees-Red Sox.
These two have split each of the first two games in this series with New York taking Game 1 and Boston taking Game 2 last night. Ive given out each of the first two games as paid plays and hit with the Yankees on Friday and missed with them last night.
Today, Im going to stick with my guns and go with the Yankees for a third straight day.
Sure Daisuke Matsuzaka is 2-0 this year with a 1.47 ERA, but he didnt fare so well against the Evil Empire the second half of last year. In fact, while Dice-K started four games against the Yankees last year and was 2-1, he actually pitched pretty horribly.
In those four games Matsuzaka threw 25 innings, giving up 23 hits and allowing 17 earned runs to post a 6.12 ERA against New York. Luckily for him he?s had some offense backing him up to save him.
That wont happen tonight. Dice-K gets shelled again and the Yankees win this game and this series.
Take the Yankees on the road.
2* YANKEES (1* to 5* Scale)
TOTALS 4 U
San Antonio @ Los Angeles
San Antonio (53-24) has won 9 of their last 10 games but in the log-jam that is the Western Conference playoff race, even the defending NBA Champions have plenty of work to do. Currently holding the #2 Seed (currently would play Dallas in the first round), the Spurs are just 1 game behind the Hornets and 1/2 game ahead of the Lakers - this season, every game in April counts. 6'11" PF Tim Duncan (19.5p, 11.5r, 2.9a, 1.95 blocks) is certainly the first option offensively, but the 3-point bomb has been key to this franchises 4 NBA Championships over the last decade or so. Current starters 6'7" SG Michael Finley (125 of 338) and 6'7" SF Bruce Bowen (88 of 206) are deadly shooters from deep and substitutions don't ease the heat from the arc. 6'6" Manu Ginobli (19.8p, 4.8r, 4.5a, 1.46 steals) is playing the 6th-man role right now and has nailed 156 of 385 attempts from downtown while bench players 6'5" G Ime Udoka (51 of 146) and the resigned 6'7" G Brent Barry (46 of 107) twinkle the twine with regularity - even 6'10" F/C Matt Bonner has stepped out an kill opponents with 44 of 127 shooting the treys. Rounding out the starting five are 6'2" PG Tony Parker (18.4p, 3.2r, 5.8a) and 6'10" C Francisco Oberto (4.6p, 5.2r) while Coach Greg Popovich (629-300 regular season, 91-51 playoffs) has been given depth help with the additions of 6'9" F/C Kurt Thomas (4.7p, 5.2r in 18 minutes per game) and 5'10" G Damon Stoudamire (3.5p, 1.5r, 1.5a in 13 minutes per game). Speaking of "Pop", he would make one hell of a dinner guest. Popovich earned a degree in Soviet Studies from the Air Force Academy before serving his tour of duty by playing on the US Armed Forces Team as it played its way around the Eastern Bloc plus also was captain of the National AAU squad that traveled around the Soviet Union. Chuck Barris's cover as a game show host while employed as a "hitter" for the CIA has nothing on Pops' during the heart of the Cold War! Anyway, the Spurs are coming off their worst back-to-back games in years with an embarrassing 64-90 loss Friday at Utah and a sloppy 72-65 win Sunday at Portland and have plenty to work on. As stacked as the West is this season, nobody will walk through the field like San Antonio did with a 16-4 postseason mark on the way to the Title in 2007. Timmy and the boys are a modest 21-18 away from the AT&T Center this year and play home games against the Suns on Wednesday and the Sonics on Thursday before this weekend's showdown.
Los Angeles (53-25) has been batting injuries among their big men all season but may get more help by this weekend. 7'0" backup C Chris Mihm (3.7p, 3.5r) has battled a foot injury all season with just 21 games played and 7'0" starting C Pau Gasol (18.9p, 7.9r, 3.7a, 1.50 blocks) missed three weeks with an ankle injury but 7'0" C Andew Bynum (13.1p, 10.2r) travels to New York for an exam on his left kneecap and if the report is as expected he will practice Saturday and be available against the Spurs on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kobe (28.7p, 6.4r, 5.4a, 1.86 steals) keeps doing what Kobe does for an offensive attack that piles up 108.5 points per game. Is it the shoes? Not sure but Thursday night Bryant will debut Nike's new "Hyperdunk" kicks against the Clippers so we'll find out! This season, Coach Phil Jackson's (885-341 regular season, 175-64 playoffs) triangle offense isn't nearly as obtuse as it has in the past with starters Gasol, 6'10" PF Lamar Odom (14.2p, 10.5r, 3.6a), 6'1" PG Derek Fisher (11.7p, 2.1r, 2.8a), and 6'10" SF Vladamir Radmanovic (8.4p, 3.4r) each making big contributions. Well and good, but it's the Laker bench that is the envy of the rest of the Association. And we don't just mean 6'2" G Jordan Farmar (9.1p, 2.2r, 2.7a), 6'7" G Sasha Vujacic (8.8p, 2.1r, 1.0a), 6'10" F/C Ronny Turiaf (6.6p, 4.0r, 1.6a), and 6'8" F Luke Walton (7.1p, 3.9r, 3.0a); the pine is lined with enough glitterati in the form of assistant coaches to hold its own on any Hollywood red carpet. Frank Hamblen, Kurt Rambis, Brian Shaw, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Craig Hodges, and Jim Cleamons make up the best support team in the NBA and each capable of manning the top job were he called up upon by Los Angeles or any other squad. Back to the guys in the jerseys, this roster can flat-out shoot the rock. The Lakers have nailed 47.6 percent of their shots from the field this season including 37.8 percent from behind the arc with Bryant (142 of 392), Fisher (106 of 259), Farmar (106 of 292), Vujacic (112 of 254), and Radmanovic (91 of 217) each nailing the triples at better than the 35% mark. It's taken a while but it can be fairly assessed that the Lake Show is more than just Kobe and some stiffs and they'll need every hand on deck for the final week. After dropping a 103-112 game that they dearly needed at Portland on Tuesday, Los Angeles holds the #3 Seed (would currently face the Suns in the first round), is 1/2 game behind San Antonio, and 1 game ahead of Utah. The Clippers on Thursday and the Hornets at the Staple Center on Friday precede their Sunday showdown with the Spurs.
So who's better, who wants it more, and who needs it more? Spurs, Lakers, and draw - but a playoff atmosphere at the Staples Center combined with the recent offensive struggles of the Spurs give the nod to the Zen Master's crew. Take Los Angeles on Sunday and enjoy what looks to be one hell of a game
TEDDY COVERS
Arena Football
New York Dragons -2.5 (-110) / 4 units
The New York Dragons defense has been nothing short of spectacular in recent weeks. Two weeks ago, they held the undefeated Dallas Desperados to a season low 33 points. Last week, the Dragons held a Grand Rapids team that had scored 92 and 84 points in their previous two games to 34 points, leading 49-0 before the Rampage reached the end zone. DB John Walker led the defense with three interceptions, two pass breakups and two tackles. DB Levy Brown, picked off his fifth pass of the season. LB Idris Price and DL Henry Taylor also chipped in with fumble recoveries, while DB Billy Parker had three pass breakups.
The fact that we were able to capitalize on the defensive turnovers was very encouraging," said head coach Weylan Harding. Everybody did their one-eighth and made the plays that we needed to make. We're expecting (Walker) to do his part. If an opportunity arises, he's supposed to make those plays because that's what he's here for. I expect that from all of our (defensive backs). When you're number is called, you have to perform.? Walker: I was able to make plays with the opportunities, but give full credit to our DB?s and D-line.
As the Dragons defense has improved by leaps and bounds, so has their offense. With veteran starting quarterback Aaron Garcia back in the lineup, New York hung a season high 63 points on the board last week. This is a team with a strong homefield edge (their only home loss this year came on a late safety against undefeated Dallas), morphing from a bad team into a competitive team as the season has progressed
Columbus isnt morphing into anything except the mediocre squad that they are. The Destroyers have been played by poor special teams, a sluggish, inconsistent offense and a D that continues to give up chunks of yardage, allowing more than seven yards per pass attempt in four of their last five games. Their only road win this year came at 0-6 Utah, and even that victory came by a single field goal, only after the Blaze had self destructed in the second half. Don?t expect them to get another road victory here.
Take New York Current line: -1.5
DOC'S
4 Unit Play. Take Orlando -2 over Grand Rapids
All the experts were impressed by the Predators victory last week against Chicago despite receiving terrible quarterback play. They won that game in overtime and will follow that up with a victory in Michigan on Sunday. Orlando is well coach and does whatever is necessary to win games and most of the time it is not pretty. That being said, they do have a rock solid defense and the Rampage will have trouble moving the football against them (if that is possible with offensively innovated rules). Rampage have a terrible defense allowing over 60 points per game and Orlando wins for the fifth time in six games.
8 Unit Play.Take Over 93 in Columbus @ New York
AFL Game of the Year. We used the Dragons as a big favorite last year for our Game of the Year and they laid an egg in a high scoring game against Austin losing 82-54. We have learned our lesson and cannot trust the Dragons as a favorite but fell that this total is way too low considering this is Arena Football. This is an important game for both since they are 2-4 in the league and need this victory to improve their playoff stock. Since the line is low we expect a close game that goes back and forth and thus there will not be any sitting on the lead. The Dragons still have the stay quarterback in Aaron Garcia and were a huge over team in 2007 going over today?s posted number in 14 of their 16 games (Dallas both times was the only unders). Scoring has been down a little for both teams this year by the Dragons put up 63 last week and if either team hits sixty this will be an easy winner. Sit back and enjoy the game as we do not care who wins as long as it goes way 93 points
Insider Sports Report
4* Atlanta (Glavine)/Washington (Redding) UNDER 9
Range 9.5 to 8.5
3* Milwaukee (Suppan)/N.Y. Mets (Perez) UNDER 8.5
Range 9 to 8
3* Orlando -4 over Chicago (NBA)
Range -2 to -6