SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (23-14) at Chicago Cubs (21-15)
The Diamondbacks trot out veteran left-hander Randy Johnson (2-1, 5.06 ERA) to cap a three-game series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, who will counter with ace right-hander Carlos Zambrano (5-1, 1.80).
Chicago opened the series with a 3-1 victory Friday night, then came back Saturday and scored a 7-2 win thanks to a six-run seventh inning. The Cubs, who got out to a 16-9 start, are just 5-6 in their last 11 games, and the Diamondbacks – who were 19-7 - have also dropped seven of their last 11 games.
This is the first series this season between these two teams, but Arizona dominated last year, taking seven of nine games, after taking four of six in 2006. The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in the last seven meetings and are a perfect 10-0 in Johnson’s last 10 starts against the Cubs.
Johnson, who will make his sixth start of the year, matched his longest outing of the season in Arizona’s 6-4 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday. He allowed all four runs on six hits in six innings, following his shortest outing of the year – when he allowed six runs on nine hits in four innings as the DBacks lost to Houston 8-7 on April 30.
Johnson, who is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in two road starts this season, is an eye-popping 12-0 lifetime with a 1.98 ERA in 13 starts against the Cubs, though he hasn’t faced them since 2004 after spending two years with the Yankees and battling injuries in making just 10 starts in 2007.
Zambrano, who hasn’t lost in a month, hurled eight solid innings in Chicago’s 3-0 win at Cincinnati on Tuesday, allowing three hits and three walks with three strikeouts. In his last five starts, Zambrano is 4-0 and had one no-decision – when he allowed just one run on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings, but the Cubs’ bullpen couldn’t back his effort in a 4-3 home loss to Milwaukee on May 1.
Zambrano is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts at Wrigley this season, but he’s 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in four career starts against Arizona, though he hasn’t faced the DBacks since 2005.
The Diamondbacks are 14-7 in their last 21 against right-handed starters, 4-1 in Johnson’s last five road starts, 8-3 in Johnson’s last 11 outings overall and 31-13 with Johnson against the National League Central. On the flip side, Arizona is 2-6 in its last eight Sunday games and 1-6 on the road against winning teams.
The Cubs are on an 12-3 tear in their last 15 home games and are 7-0 at home against left-handed starters, 4-1 with Zambrano going on four days’ rest and 7-2 with Zambrano starting on Sunday. But the Cubs are 4-9 in their last 13 against the N.L. West and 1-8 in Zambrano’s last nine home starts against winning teams.
In this N.L. rivalry, the under has cashed four of the last five meetings in Chicago and is on an 8-2 run in the last 10 clashes overall. In addition, for Arizona, the under is 10-1 in Johnson’s last 11 road starts, 4-2 against the N.L. Central, 4-2 on the road against winning teams, 11-3-1 with Johnson on four days’ rest and 21-8-2 in Johnson’s last 31 starts overall. However, the over is 11-2-2 in Johnson’s last 15 road starts against winning teams.
For Chicago, the under is on a 4-1-1 run and is 13-5 against the N.L. West, 6-1 in Zambrano’s last seven starts at Wrigley, 4-0 in Zambrano’s last four Sunday outings and 23-7-1 in Zambrano’s last 31 starts overall. But the over is 11-3 with Zambrano at home against winning teams and 5-1 at home against lefties.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (24-15) at Minnesota (18-17)
The Red Sox send right-handed knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (3-1, 3.33 ERA) to the hill at the Metrodome in the finale of a three-game set against the Twins and right-hander Nick Blackburn (2-2, 3.65).
Minnesota squeaked out a 7-6 victory Friday night to open the series, and on Saturday, Boston got the 5-2 victory to even the three-game set. The Twins, who have alternated wins and losses in their last six games, are 7-4 in their last 11 outings. The Red Sox, 8-3 in their last 11 games, have split their last four games following a five-game winning streak.
The Twins are 9-4 in their last 13 home games against the Red Sox, but Boston won last year’s season series 4-3, taking two of three at the Metrodome. The Red Sox are 4-1 in Wakefield’s last five starts against the Twins, including a 2-0 road victory last May in which Wakefield yielded three hits and three walks in seven innings.
Wakefield had his best outing of the season in his last start, shutting out Detroit while allowing two hits in eight innings Tuesday as Boston posted a 5-0 victory. He had no walks and six strikeouts against the Tigers. Wakefield, who is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four road starts this year, is 13-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 21 career starts (24 appearances) against Minnesota.
Blackburn has three no-decisions among his seven starts this season, with Minnesota losing all three of those contests, and he took the loss Wednesday on the road against the Chicago White Sox, allowing four runs on six hits in six innings as the Twins fell 7-1. However, Blackburn is 2-1 with a sterling 1.66 ERA in the dome this season.
The 26-year-old Blackburn, in just his second year in the majors, was dealt a loss in his only appearance against Boston last season, getting battered for four runs on four hits in one inning of relief in a 6-4 September road loss.
The Red Sox are 6-1 in Wakefield’s last seven starts against the American League Central, 5-1 with Wakefield going on four days’ rest, 5-1 with Wakefield on Sunday, 6-2 overall on Sunday and 24-9 in their last 33 against the A.L. Central. But Boston carries negative trends of 0-5 with Wakefield facing a winning team, 0-4 with Wakefield on the road against a winning team, 2-5 in Wakefield’s last seven road starts, 2-5 against winning teams, 2-5 against righties and a lengthy 22-43 on field turf.
The Twins are on an 8-1 tear at the Metrodome and are 6-1 at home against right-handers, 4-2 overall against righties, 7-3 in their last 10 games and 8-4 against the A.L. East. On a negative note, though, Minnesota is just 2-5 in Blackburn’s last seven outings.
The under for Boston is 6-0-1 with Wakefield pitching on field turf, 8-1-1 with Wakefield on the highway against a winning team, 4-1 in Wakefield’s last five starts and 43-17-5 in Wakefield’s last 65 roadies. But the over is 4-1 for Boston on Sunday, 5-1-1 against righties, 6-2-1 overall and 5-2-1 in Wakefield’s last eight against the A.L. Central. For Minnesota, the under is 6-1 at home against right-handers, 5-1 overall against righties and 55-26-4 in the Twins’ last 85 Sunday games, but the over is 4-2 against the A.L. East.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 8-2 in the last 10 clashes and 17-5-1 in the last 23 games in Minnesota.s
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (6-1, 6-0-1 ATS) at (4) Utah (5-4, 3-5 ATS)
The Jazz, who claimed a must-win in Game 3 after losing the first two games in Los Angeles, hope to maintain their home-court edge at EnergySolutions Arena in Game 4 against the Lakers, who suffered their first loss of the 2008 playoffs.
Utah held off Los Angeles down the stretch Friday night for a 104-99 victory, pushing as a five-point favorite. Carlos Boozer led the way with 27 points and 20 rebounds as Utah avoided losing three straight games – something that hasn’t happened to the Jazz since a six-game skid from Dec. 4-14. However, the Jazz are just 1-5-1 ATS (3-4 SU) in their last seven games. The Lakers, on the other hand, are still 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 starts and had cashed in eight straight before Friday’s push.
Los Angeles is 5-2 SU (5-1-1 ATS) against Utah this season, including 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five contests. However, the home team is on a 5-1-1 ATS spree in this rivalry and is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 battles overall, with the winning team cashing in every game except Friday’s push. Finally, the favorite is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
The Lakers, who have won by double digits in five of their six playoff victories this year, have no negative ATS trends to speak of. They are on positive pointspread runs of 6-0-1 in conference semifinal games, 6-0-1 against the Northwest Division (all in the playoffs), 8-0-1 against the Western Conference, 4-0-1 on one day of rest, 7-1-1 as a road underdog, 21-8-2 overall catching points and 35-16-2 in their last 53 on the highway.
The Jazz, who had the league’s best regular-season home mark at 37-4 and are 3-1 at home in the playoffs (1-2-1 ATS), are on positive ATS runs of 6-2-1 laying points, 7-2-2 as a playoff chalk, 21-8-1 against winning teams, 11-5-1 on one day of rest and 38-15-2 at home. One negative note for Utah is its 1-4 ATS mark following a SU win.
The over for Los Angeles is 9-2 after a SU loss, but the “under” trends for L.A. carry the day from there, including 4-0 with the Lakers a ‘dog, 4-0 on the highway, 5-1 overall and 4-1 in conference semifinals. For Utah, the over is 21-8 against the Pacific Division, but the under is 4-0 with the Jazz going on one day of rest, 4-1 with the Jazz favored by less than five and 4-1 in conference semis. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 11-6 in the last 17 meetings, but Game 2 fell well short of the posted price of 215.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
(2) New Orleans (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at (3) San Antonio (5-3, 3-4-1 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Spurs, who climbed back into the series with a Game 3 victory after dropping the first two games on the highway, look to even up this semifinal series in Game 4 against the Hornets at the AT&T Center.
On Thursday night, San Antonio trailed by two at halftime, then built a cushion throughout the second half on the way to a 110-99 victory as a 7½-point chalk. Guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili each had 31 points for the Spurs to outduel Chris Paul (35 points) and David West (23). San Antonio halted a 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS skid while the Hornets had their four-game winning streak snapped (3-1 ATS).
New Orleans still holds a 4-3 SU and ATS lead against San Antonio this season, though it had a 3-0 SU and ATS streak in this rivalry halted with the Game 3 loss. The home team is on a 5-0 ATS tear and the favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 clashes (4-1 ATS in the last five). Finally, the straight-up winner is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head contests.
The Hornets remain in ATS funks of 1-7 as road pups of five to 10½ points, 3-7 as a road ‘dog of any price, 1-4 in their last five roadies overall, 3-7 in conference semifinal games and 4-9-1 as a playoff underdog. New Orleans still carries positive ATS trends of 5-0 after a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-2 on two days’ rest, 38-13 following a non-cover, 36-15-1 after a SU loss and 43-21-1 overall.
Greg Popovich’s Spurs are on an 8-0-1 ATS streak as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points and are on further positive ATS runs of 15-3-2 as a playoff favorite of any price, 7-2-1 at home and 18-7-1 laying five to 10½ at home. On the negative side, San Antonio is still just 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 contests, 1-4 ATS after a spread-cover, 4-7 ATS on two days’ rest and 7-14-1 ATS against the Southwest Division.
For New Orleans, the over is 8-1-1 in conference semifinal games, 27-9 on two days’ rest and 8-3 with the Hornets a road pup, while the over for San Antonio is on an 8-2-1 run and is 5-1 with the Spurs favored, 13-5-1 in conference semifinal games and 14-6 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points.
The under, though, is 5-1-1 with the Hornets a playoff ‘dog and 16-8-1 in San Antonio’s last 25 against the Southwest Division. Finally, in this rivalry, the over has cashed in two straight games – with Game 1 in this series a push at 183 points – and is 8-3 in the last 11 battles in San Antonio.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Robert Ross
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
Indians go for the sweep. Jays have scored one run in losing the first two games of this series by a combined 18-1. They have been offensively-challenged all year, averaging just under 2.7 runs/game over their last 19 contests.
Play on: Cleveland
Alex Smart
Chicago Cubs -150
The Chicago Cubs are the real deal, and a long World Series drought, might just come to end this season, if they can stay healthy. With the capable Carlos Zambrano( 5-1, 1.80 ERA) going to the hill for the Cubs they once again look like a solid bet. I know their visiting opponents the DBacks will be sending veteran Randy Johnson out to return fire, and I also know the five-time Cy Young Award winner is 12-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cubs, including 4-0 along with a 1.00 ERA in five starts at Wrigley. But all things must come to end , and Im predicting , Johsnsons domination in this series ends this Sunday. Play on the Cubs
Matt Fargo
Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Florida Marlins
I’m perplexed by this line. Florida is starting to heat up once again as it has now won six straight games to move back into first place in the National League East. The Marlins took the first two games of this series which makes it seven wins in the first eight meetings this season. So the fact that Florida remains an underdog here makes no sense especially when the pitching matchup favors it as well. The Marlins are now 10-5 away from home which is the best road record in baseball.
While the Marlins are surging, the Nationals are slumping. It has been a season of streaks for the Nationals and they are once again in the middle of one, this time on the down side. Washington has dropped four of its last five games after winning eight of 10 prior to that. The offense is once again not producing and the bats are hitting only .238 on the season which is 2nd to last in the National League, ahead of San Diego only. The slugging percentage of .352 is also second worst.
Scott Olsen is coming off the best outing of his career as he allowed just two hits in 8.2 innings against the Brewers. It was his fifth quality outing in his last six starts and that already includes two over Washington this season. He is 2-0 against the Nationals this season, giving up five runs in 14 innings for a 2.45 ERA while also posting a solid 0.89 WHIP. The Marlins are 6-1 in his seven starts including a perfect 2-0 mark on the road where Olsen has posted a 1.80 ERA.
The Nationals counter with Shawn Hill who has looked decent but certainly not spectacular in his four starts this season. He has one quality start and while he has allowed more than three runs only once, that is mostly due to his inability to do a long distance. Three of his four outings has seen him out before the end of the sixth inning including his last outing where he tossed 107 pitches but only lasted 5.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .283 on the season. Play Florida Marlins 1.5 Units
James Patrick Sports
A’s vs. Rangers
The A’s Harden is a solid 5-2 in his career against the Rangers and our Sunday selection in Big League action is on Oakland A’s with Harden.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: NY Yankees w/Pettite vs Robertson
Note: Yankees wrap up their weekend visit to the Motor City when they send Andy Pettite to the hill against Nate Robertson in a matchup of left handers. Pettite owns a solid 3.55 ERA in 23 career team starts against the Tiger whereas Robertson is just 2-7 lifetime in his career starts against the Pinstripes. With Robertson 1-3 at home with a 6.20 ERA this season, look for the visiting team to improve to 7-1 in Pettite's starts this season here today.
Dave Cokin
Phillies @ Giants
Play: Giants +100
Jonathan Sanchez has been erratic since finding his way into the regular Giants pitching rotation. There's no doubt about the stuff owned by this lefty. Sanchez can pitch and has a chance to be a star if things fall into place. Right now, I think it's a matter of trusting his own stuff. Sanchez has fabulous numbers against lefties, but has struggled against righties. The reason is readily apparent. He has not walked a single lefty hitter all season, but can't locate the zone with any regularity against righties. Since home plate is immobile, the conclusion I reach is that it's a mental thing that Sanchez has to get past, and once he does, he's going to be a very solid pitcher. As for today, I like his chances. Sanchez has been good at home, and Philly's Adam Eaton is a pretty soft opponent even the popgun SF attack can exploit somewhat. I'll grab Sanchez and the Giants to salvage the series finale.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Prediction: over
Reason: The team's played a double header on Saturday and expect both bullpens to be tired tonight. The over is 6-1 in the Reds last 7 games played on Sunday's. The over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Reds Johnny Cueto has an ERA of 8.59 over his last 3 starts. The over is 7-3-1 in the Mets last 11 games. The Mets have played the over in 2 of Perez's last 3 starts. His ERA over his last 3 starts is 8.10. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. The over is 7-3 in his last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Play the over.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Reason: At 4:05pm ET our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Francisco Giants. There is certainly nothing pretty about 30 year-old righthanded starter Adam Eaton's stats so far in 2008. Eaton has an 0-1 record and a 5.63 ERA, hardly the kind of numbers that one can get excited about. But what still makes him valuable to this team and more than likely keeps him in the rotation is the fact that the Phillies have won four of Eaton's last five starts. Major League experience is an important thing for a starter and Eaton certainly has plenty of that and it's hard to put a value on the clubhouse leadership that Eaton provides to a young staff that consists of guys like Cole Hammels and Kyle Kendrick. The Phils have to be happy having gone .500 on this tough west coast road trip, without reigning MVP shortstop Jimmy Rollins for most of the games. Philadelphia would love nothing more than to return home next Tuesday with a winning record over this trip and a healthy Rollins, who returned on Friday night and almost hit for the cycle. Take the Phils.
LAS VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Los Angeles Lakers + 2 over (at) Utah Jazz
Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS last eight games vs. above .500 teams. The Lakers are 7-2 last nine meetings off losing at Utah 104-99 in game three. LA is a West best 27-14 on the road.
New Orleans Hornets + 6 over (at) San Antonio Spurs
New Orleans is 3-1 (SU & ATS) last four meeting off losing at San Antonio 110-99 on Thursday night The Hornets are 38-12 ATS last 50 games when coming off an ATS loss.
JB's COMPUTER PICKS
Cleveland Indians - 135
Florida Marlins + 110
Los Angeles Angels - 120
Chicago White Sox - 120
Boston Red Sox - 130 * * *
Best Bet * * *
Jim Feist.
NY Yankees and DET Tigers.
Take NY Yankees
The Detroit bullpen troubles continue, especially when shaky starters don't provide enough quality innings. In this game, starter Nate Robertson has struggled badly, at 1-4 with a 6.64 ERA. He's averaged just over 5 innings per game. Even when he was throwing well, the Yankees knocked him around, with a 2-5 record against them, plus a 5.02 ERA. NY lefty Andy Pettitte has a .500 record, but is throwing well with a 3.77 ERA. The Yankees have a better road record than the struggling Tigers have at home. Play the Yankees!
Cappers Access
Lakers
Hornets
Brewers
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASES FOR SUN
SAN FRANCISCO+100
CLEVELAND-132
CHIC WHITE SOX-112
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tonight we like another OVER in the Hornets-Spurs series. If there is one thing the defending NBA champs are, it is versatile.
San Antonio prefers to throw the defense at you, but they can play up-tempo if need be, and against Chris Paul and the hard-charging Hornets, that is exactly what the Spurs have had to do.
2-0-1 OVER the posted total in the first 3 games of this series, and this one will head OVER the total as well.
New Orleans is on an 8-3 OVER clip when installed as a road dog their last 11, while San Antonio is on an 8-2-1 OVER clip their last 11 played at home.
Finally, 8 of the last 11 series meetings in San Antonio between the teams have eclipsed the price, so there is no way we are interested in backing the UNDER in this spot tonight.
Play the OVER.
1* OVER