Dave Malinsky
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: under
By calling for this one to reach double figures as the “coin toss” level for this one, the oddsmakers are projecting this game like a warm summer afternoon with each of these teams having all hands on deck. That is far from what we have here. Instead the projection is for a cool and dreary afternoon in Detroit with the wind blowing in, and a pair of offenses that are not capable of living up to their reputations right now will be hard-pressed to get this one near the high Total.
The Yankees show a clear vulnerability to left-handers, and it will be that way until they can get Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada back in the lineup (while it also looks like Hideki Matsui will be given today off). That means a chance for Nate Robertson to begin to get his base numbers down near where they belong, and it is the out-of-sync season by Robertson that helps to bring us this value. The pitching forms show Robertson at 1-4/6.64, and that looks like quite a fall for a guy that worked to a 4.34 tune over 583 innings from 2005-07. But is that really the case? Over the last three seasons, Robertson created the 4.34 by producing a 1.38 WHIP,with 3.0 Walks-Per-9; 5.8 Strikeouts-Per-9; and 1.2 Home Runs-Per-9. Yet so far this season his WHIP is 1.55; walks are 2.4; Strikeouts 6.9; and Home Runs 1.3. In other words his stuff has not fallen off at all, but an inordinate percentage of runners that have reached base against him have scored. That is the sort of thing that can happen over a short sample in baseball, but the bottom line is that Robertson has thrown the ball at a rate that could call for an ERA two full runs lower than where it is. We get value when that happens.
Meanwhile Andy Pettitte continues to be Andy Pettitte - a solid and dependable 3.77 over his first 43 innings this season, with good command of the strike zone (12 walks), and an almost 2:1 ratio of ground-ball outs to fly outs. And we can expect the Yankee veteran to work with a special chip on his shoulder here - two starts back he carried a lead into the 5th inning vs. these Tigers before seeing it slip away, and in his last outing he left with a lead against Cleveland that the bullpen did not hold. His lefty presence also takes away Curtis Granderson as a table setter, a significant factor because the Tigers lack another natural leadoff hitter. That bullpen is also well-positioned to handle the latter stages here, much like they did yesterday, when Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera only needed 21 pitches to retire the side in the final two innings. Neither of those two bring a fatigue rating to this one, and it is worth noting just how good Rivera has been this season - 10 saves already, not having allowed a single run.
Vegas Experts
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers are desperate to avoid a three-game sweep at home vs. Astros, but don't worry LA fans - it's going to be okay. Houston is just 9-27 on the road in day games. Hiroki Kuroda is absolutely due for a win here considering his team has won his last three starts, but he has yet to receive a decision. Astros starter Shawn Chacon is winless in seven starts.
Play on: LA Dodgers
Sammy Jankus, The Reverse Barometer! 😀
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeup.
New Orleans at San Antonio
Play (513) NEW ORLEANS (+6)
It sure took the defending NBA champs long enough to awake from their slumber but the Spurs finally got their engine running on all cylinders in Game Three, outscoring New Orleans 56-33 in the second half en route to a crucial 110-99 victory. Now that Pop & the boys have figured out how to get to the hoop, it looks to be a long night for the visiting Hornets. I think San Antonio will even the series with another LOP-SIDED WIN here – so your play is on NEW ORLEANS.
Tom Freese
Boston at Minnesota
Knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield is 13-8 with a 4.11 ERA. He loves pitching in the Dome where his knuckleball flutters better in a controlled climate. His ERA in his last 3 starts at Minnesota is 2.14. The Red Sox are 37-17 their last 54 games as favorites with Wakefield on the mound. Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn has allowed 12 runs in his last 19 innings of work. He will in in over his head vs. a Red Sox team that has scored 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 10 games. PLAY ON BOSTON - (Wakefield vs. Blackburn)
Chuck Franklin
New Orleans +6 at SAN ANTONIO
The Spurs got one on Thursday night, but it might be the only win in this series for the older team. They may be passing the baton on to a younger and more energetic New Orleans Hornets.
The Hornets will clamp down defensively after the poor showing in Game 3. They are 5-0 ATS the last five games played after losing by more than 10 points and they are on a 10-2-1 ATS run after allowing an opponent 100 points or more in their last game. New Orleans is 7-3 ATS the last 10 Sunday games.
San Antonio is 0-4 ATS the last four games played after a win of more than 10 points and they are 5-11 ATS the last 16 games played when they scored 100 or more points in their last game played.
Take the points with the Top Dog Hornets
3* NEW ORLEANS
Nick Parsons Sunday NHL Pick!
Play ON Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line +1.5 goals @ Pittsburgh
Just like yesterdays winner with Dallas, we see a lot of line value here with the Flyers on the puck line. The ability to get the +1.5 goals while only having to lay a moderate price of about $160 is really a solid value. The Flyers actually played the Penguins quite tough in Game One and they led 2-1 in the first period. A goal with just six seconds left in the first period proved to be a back breaker for the Flyers but they really competed quite well other than some turnovers that arent likely to be repeated here. The Flyers hurt themselves with a couple of costly mistakes but they also did well in pressuring the Penguins net and coming up with numerous scoring chances. The Flyers still fell short 4-2 in Fridays game but their effort did impress. Also note that the Flyers did win Game Two in each of their first two series after dropping the Game One each time in frustrating fashion. Game One of this series certainly fell in the category of frustrating for the Flyers and a big bounce back can be expected here. However, by taking the puck line we get the added benefit of cashing a ticket, just like with Dallas yesterday, even if the Flyers fall just short. This should be a tight game all the way and there is solid line value with Philadelphias puck
LARRY NESS
D Backs - 8*
Spurs - 9*
Jeff Bonds
3 Dimes Brewers
2 Dimes Red Sox
1 Dime Red Sox Run Line
1 Dime Oakland
Big AL
NBA 3* LA Lakers
NBA 3* New Orleans
Erin Rynning
NBA Playmaker: Utah Under 211
MLB Tampa Bay Under 8.5 -120
MLB Seattle +105
MLB Playmaker: Minnesota Under 9
EZ Winners MLB
2* Reds (Cueto Only)
2* Nationals (Hill Only)
1* Astros (Chacon Only)
1* Twins (Action)
Gavazzi Hoops + Baseball
4% LA Lakers
4% N.Orleans Hornets
3% Boston RedSox
2% Atlanta Braves
2% St Louis Cards
Ben Burns
MLB Kansas City Royals -137 4 units
NBA Utah Jazz -2.0 4 units
NBA Hornets/Spurs Under 188 5 units
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED HOME RUN BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Zambrano -155
JB Sports
1 unit Lakers +1.5
1 unit New Orleans +6