ROOT
Chairman - San Antonio
Millionaire - Utah
Michael Cannon
30 Dime –
LAKERS
Take the small number with the Lakers today over the Jazz.
I know Utah has been one of the better home teams in the entire league this year, but they’re not playing the Bobcats or the Sonics folks.
This is the Los Angeles Lakers we’re talking about. A team that in my opinion has as much balance and cohesion as any team in the league.
Consider their loss in Game 3. The Jazz played their best game of the series while the Lakers played their worst.
The outcome was still in doubt with just seconds remaining.
That tells me everything I needed to know about today’s game.
The Lakers turned the ball over 18 times, Pau Gasol only had 12 points and six rebounds, and flat out made too many mistakes to win that game.
You can look up all the trends for the home teams in the playoffs so far and it will tell you that that’s who your money should be on today.
But I’ll give you some numbers that back the Lakers here; Los Angeles is 8-0-1 in its last nine games overall, 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Jazz.
The numbers aren’t what I’m relying on here, but they don’t hurt either.
Take the Lakers as they bounce back today over the Jazz.
5 Dime –
MARLINS (With Olsen as listed pitcher)
Take the Marlins for the road win this afternoon over the Nationals.
Florida is looking for its second straight series sweep, and they’re sending perhaps their best pitcher to the mound today.
Scott Olsen is enjoying a fantastic bounce back season. The left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA and has already beaten the Nationals twice this season.
Washington has allowed 31 runs in dropping four of its last five games overall. If that’s not bad enough, they’ve been outscored 58-29 by Florida this year.
Take the Marlins as they grab the road win.
DIAMONDBACKS (With Johnson as listed pitcher)
Take the Diamondbacks for the road win this afternoon over the Cubs.
I know Randy Johnson is old and he’s not close to being the dominant pitcher he once was, but I just can’t ignore the success he’s had against the Cubs in his career.
The Big Unit is 12-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cubbies. He also has a 0.78 ERA over his last five starts against them and is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in five starts at Wrigley.
It’s hard to argue against numbers like those.
The Diamondbacks are one of the better teams in the National League, so that helps our cause here as well.
Take Arizona at a nice plus return for the road win.
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
L.A. Lakers (+1 ½) over UTAH
11-May-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
The Jazz were in a tremendously positive situation in game 3 after losing the first 2 games in L.A. by double-digit margins and they still only won by 5 points despite the Lakers making just 5 of 23 3- point attempts and turning the ball over 18 times, which are both uncharacteristic. By contrast, the Jazz made 38% of their 3-point attempts and only committed 12 turnovers. The Lakers aren’t as likely to be as sloppy with the ball in this game (they average 13 turnovers per game on the road) and they are very likely to make more than 22% of their 3-point attempts (they made 38% for the season). Los Angeles matches up well against teams that play at a higher than normal pace, as the Lakers are now 33-9-1 ATS this season against teams that average 93 possessions per 48 minutes, including a 5-1-1 ATS mark against the Jazz. The Jazz have been a good home team this season, but my ratings make this game a pick and the math projects Utah by just 2 points if I only used their home games, so the line is fair at the very worst. The Lakers apply to a 69-28-1 ATS situation today and I’ll consider the Lakers a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 or more.
2-Stars at +1 or more, 3-Stars at +3 or more.
2 Star Selection
New Orleans (+5 ½) over SAN ANTONIO
11-May-08 05:05 PM Pacific Time
New Orleans lost as expected in game 3 (the situation strongly favored San Antonio), but the Hornets have a strong habit of bouncing back from sub-par games, as they are now 20-4 ATS following the last 24 games in which they did not cover the spread, including 12-0 ATS recently. New Orleans continues to be an underrated team and my ratings favor the Spurs by just 3 points and the Hornets also I’ll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 points.
2-Stars at +5 ormore, 3-Stars at +6 or more.