SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (27-28) at N.Y. Mets (27-27)
Two teams trying to claw their way above .500 and back into division races wrap up a four-game weekend set at Shea Stadium, with the Dodgers sending right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (2-4, 3.29 ERA) to the mound against Mets ace Johan Santana (6-3, 3.41).
New York scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 3-0 victory Saturday. It was the fourth win in the last five games for Willie Randolph’s team, a surge that follows a 1-7 slump.
Los Angeles, which snapped a four-game losing streak with Friday’s 9-5 win over the Mets, is now 2-7 in its last nine games, including 1-5 on a current road trip that ends tonight. The Dodgers have scored two runs or less in six of their last nine games.
The season series is now tied 3-3, with New York going 6-2 in the last eight meetings at Shea Stadium. Tonight’s battle is the final regular-season battle between the two clubs.
Kuroda has strung together seven quality starts – three earned runs or fewer allowed in at least six innings pitched – in his last nine trips to the mound, but has little to show for it, as he’s just 1-3 with five no-decisions during this stretch. Over Kuroda’s last four starts, the right-hander has a 2.30 ERA, but L.A. is 1-3, including a 3-1 loss at Chicago in his most recent start on Tuesday.
Kuroda has already seen the Mets once this season, getting tagged for four runs on eight hits in just 3 1/3 innings at home on May 6, but he got a no-decision as L.A. rallied for a 5-4 victory. Despite a 2.82 ERA, Kuroda is 1-4 in six starts on the highway this year, with the Dodgers averaging a paltry 3.2 runs per game in those six contests.
The Mets are on a 7-1 tear when Santana takes the ball, and the lefty is 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA in his last four starts. On Tuesday against Florida, he yielded three runs on eight hits in seven innings as New York won 5-3 at home. With that effort, Santana improved to 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA at Shea this year. Also, in his lone career start against the Dodgers back in 2006 when he was with the Twins, Santana pitched seven shutout innings, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out nine in a 6-3 victory.
The Dodgers are on an 8-1 spree against left-handed starters and are 6-3 in their last nine against the National League East, but they are 1-6 in their last seven roadies and 2-5 in their last seven Sunday contests. Meanwhile, the Mets are 4-1 in their last five Sunday starts, but they are in a 2-6 funk against right-handers.
The under is 3-0 in Kurdoa’s last three starts overall and 5-0 in his last five on the highway. However, the over is 6-2-1 in Santana’s last nine trips to the bump, including 3-0-1 at Shea.
For Los Angeles, the under is on a 9-2 streak – with the first two games of this series accounting for the two “overs” -- and the under is 12-3 in the Dodgers’ last 15 on Sunday. However, the over streaks for L.A. include 4-1 against the N.L. East, 5-1 on the road against lefty starters and 13-5 overall against southpaws. For New York, the over is on runs of 7-2-1 overall (4-1-1 at home) and 12-4-1 at Shea. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five battles this season between these clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (31-27) at L.A. Angels (33-24)
Right-hander A.J. Burnett (5-5, 4.57 ERA) is set to toe the slab for the Blue Jays when they take on Jon Garland (5-3, 3.89) and the Angels in the finale of a three-game weekend series at Angel Stadium.
After getting crushed 10-4 in Friday’s series opener, the Angels bounced back on Saturday and pounded out 16 hits, yet needed 10 innings to pull out a 3-2 victory, snapping their modest two-game losing skid while halting Toronto’s three-game winning streak. L.A. is 9-5 in its last 14 games (5-3 at home), while the Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 overall and 9-3 in the past 12 on the highway.
The Angels now hold a slim 3-2 lead in the season series. These two teams have been very evenly matched the past two years, with Toronto holding a slight 11-10 edge.
Burnett is coming off a 3-1 loss at Oakland on Tuesday, as he allowed all three runs (two earned) on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings, with just two walks and a season-tying high of 10 strikeouts. He has given up three runs or less in four straight starts and five of his last six, but the Blue Jays are only 3-3 in those six contests.
Burnett is 3-3 with a 3.11 ERA in seven road starts this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against L.A. The one victory came in a 4-3 home triumph 10 days ago in which he allowed three runs on six hits in six innings.
Garland pitched a gem at home against Detroit on Monday, scattering four hits and three walks in 7 1/3 shutout innings, failing to get a decision in the Angels’ 1-0, 12-inning victory. Garland has yielded three runs or less in five straight games – posting a 2.15 ERA during this run – but he’s got just two wins and three no-decisions in that span. The right-hander has also pitched at least six innings in eight consecutive outings.
Garland is 2-2 with a 4.66 ERA in six home starts this year, and he’s 10-2 with a 4.17 ERA in 16 career appearances (14 starts) against Toronto. That includes a 4-3 win in Toronto on May 21, when Garland allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings.
The Blue Jays are on a bevy of positive runs, including 7-1 against right-handed starters, 7-0 in Sunday games, 5-0 in the third game of a series, 10-3 on the road against winning teams and 4-2 against the American League West. In addition, with Burnett on the hill, Toronto is on streaks of 4-1 on Sunday and 7-2 against winning teams.
The Angels are 36-17 in their last 53 home games against winning teams and 18-8 in their last 25 at Angel Stadium versus teams with a winning road mark, but they are 3-5 in their past eight against the A.L. East and 1-6 in their last seven Game 3 matchups.
With Burnett on the hill, the under is on streaks of 21-8-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 7-1 against winning teams, 12-2 in Game 3 of a series and 14-3-1 with Burnett going on four days’ rest. With Garland starting for L.A., the under is on tears of 5-0 overall, 4-0 against the A.L. East, 4-1 at home and 4-1 against winning teams.
For Toronto, the under is on streaks of 28-12-1 overall, 44-21-3 on the road, 23-7 on Sundays, 7-2 against the A.L. West and 11-3 in Game 3 contests. For Los Angeles, the under trends include 21-6 overall, 9-2 at home and 4-1 in Game 3 contests. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 38-14-5 in the last 57 head-to-head meetings overall, including 17-5-2 in the last 24 clashes at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Matt Fargo
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Cleveland Indians
Kansas City got out of its funk with a win on Saturday but that does not mean it is going to go on a big winning streak now. The Royals had dropped 12 in a row and they were just a game under .500 but now they possess the 4th worst record in baseball. Hitting has been horrendous as they are batting just .232 over their last 13 games but even worse has been the pitching as Kansas City has allowed six runs or more in nine of its last 16 games. Over the last 10 games, the staff ERA is 5.76.
Cleveland is hurting as well but no where near as bad as the Royals. The Indians have somewhat recovered from that seven-game losing streak that started in mid-May as they have gone 3-4 since then with two of those losses coming by just a single run. The pitching has been solid with four runs or fewer allowed in five of those games including both to start this series. The offense has been shut down for the majority of the season, hitting just .234 on the year but a breakout is quite possible today.
The Royals send Brian Bannister to the hill who started strong but has had his share of rough outings of late. He has allowed five runs or more in four of his last six starts, posting a 7.34 ERA over that span. He has just one quality start out of those six games after putting up three quality performances in his first five starts. He has allowed six home runs over this six-game stretch as well. This comes after giving up just one long ball in his first five outings and 15 all of last season.
Cleveland counters with Paul Byrd who is having a decent season despite picking up only two wins. Over his last eight starts, he has posted five quality outings while putting up a solid 3.11 ERA. Three of those games he allowed no runs so he is capable of pitching a great outing at anytime. The problem is that all of those came at home and his road work has not been nearly as good as the Indians have yet to win in any of his road starts. Facing the impotent Kansas City offense will cure that. Play Cleveland Indians 1 Unit
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Philadelphia w/Moyer
Note: Phillies wrap up their weekend series with the Marlins when they send veteran left hander Jamie Moyer to the hill in the rubber game of this three game set. With Moyer 7-0 in his MLB career team starts against Florida and the Phillies 14-6 home on Sundays, look for Florida to fall to 5-14 away on Sundays here today.
Rocketman
#9 Kasey Kahne vs #12 Ryan Newman
Play On: 3* #12 Ryan Newman -120
Next in line I would go with Ryan Newman. Newman has three wins, six Top 5 finishes and eight Top 10 finishes in 12 starts here in Dover. Newman has an average finish of 10.0 here in Dover, which is good enough for 2nd best among active drivers. Kahne has an average finish of 25.3 here in Dover and no Top 5 finishes at all in his career. We'll play Ryan Newman to finish ahead of Kasey Kahne for 3 units today!
James Patrick Sports
Dodgers vs. Mets
Dodgers have gone OVER the TOTAL in 13 of their past 18 games against lefties and Sunday Night’s opponent Johan Santana has seen his games go OVER the TOTAL at a 6-2-1 rate. Our Sunday selection in Major League Baseball is Dodgers-Mets OVER the TOTAL at Shea Stadium.
Robert Ross
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Reason: Braves have dropped a pair of one-run decisions in the first two games of this series. Look for them to avoid the sweep behind Tim Hudson. HUDSON is 101-42 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997 (Team's Record)
while CINCINNATI is 41-61 (-19.8 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Atlanta!
Ross Benjamin
Cleveland (Byrd) @ Kansas City (Bannister)
Pick: Kansas City –110
It is unordinary for me to use a team as cold as the Kansas City Royals are right now but it is not like the Indians have been that much better in the last couple of weeks. Going into Saturday’s action the Indians had dropped 10 of their last 13. The Indians have lost 7 of the last 8 on the road and 8 of the last 10 versus a right-handed starting pitcher. The Royals are 4-1 in day games at home this season while the Indians are 1-7 on the road during the day in 2008. The Kansas City starting pitcher Brian Bannister has a very good 2.68 ERA in 6 home starts this season, 2.36 ERA in 4 day game starts in 2008, and in 3 starts versus the Indians in his young career has a 1.98 ERA. Bannister is 10-3 in his last 13 team starts versus a team with a less than .500 winning percentage. The Cleveland starting pitcher Paul Byrd is 0-5 with a 6.93 ERA in 5 team starts on the road in 2008. In 9 starts versus the Royals since the 2005 season Paul Byrd has posted a lofty 5.20 ERA. Play on the Kansas City Royals as my selection of the day.
Jack Clayton
Game: Tigers at Mariners
Pick: Tigers
A pair of disappointing teams overall, but at least the Tigers have shown signs of life several times this season. They just won 2 in a row on the road, once as a dog. Seattle has been a complete mess all season and faces Jeremy Bonderman who has pitched well his last 8 starts. The same can't be said of Miguel Batista and his 5.98 ERA. Play the Tigers!
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers at N.Y. METS -165
After Saturday's winner on the Mets we've now hit seven of our last nine FREE plans on the diamond. Tonight we're right back at Shea Stadium as we go with the Mets again to get the best of the Dodgers.
New York has won four out of its last five and tonight they've got ace Johan Santana (6-3, 3.41 ERA) on the hill as the Mets try to make it three of four from the Dodgers.
Santana is 5-1 in his last seven starts and the Mets have won six of those seven, including a 5-3 win over the Marlins on Tuesday when he gave up three runs in seven innings. The southpaw is now 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA in four starts in front of the Shea Stadium crowd.
The Dodgers have struggled mightily on this seven-game road trip, going 1-5 entering today. Los Angeles starts Hiroki Kuroda (2-4, 3.29) and is just 1-2 in his last four starts. he faced the Mets on May 6 in Los Angeles and gave up four runs on eight hits in 3.1 innings but got bailed out by the offense as the Dodgers won 5-4.
The Mets rallied to win 3-2 on Saturday and they'll get the job done tonight as Santana pitches a gem on national TV. Play New York to get this one with ease.
3* N.Y. METS
Gator Report
MLB 70% Super Situations (MLB Record 16-12 +362 units)
MLB (16-12 +362) Sunday: Play Under MLB (AL) home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 with a team whose batting average is = .265 to .279 against a starting pitcher with an ERA <=4.20, and a starting pitcher who strikes out 3 or less batters per start.61-25 Under since 2002 (70.9%)
PLAY: * Oakland / Texas UNDER 9.5
Big Al McMordie
Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Oakland Athletics
At 3:05pm our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. No franchise in baseball has developed more quality young starters over the past ten years than the Oakland Athletics. When you go down the list of names like Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Rich Harden, Barry Zito, and Danny Haren, the first thing you notice is that these are some of the best arms to come through the Majors in the past decade and the second thing you notice is that only one of them is still with the team. Not to worry, as there seems to be an endless supply of these types of players in the system. In fact, two more seemingly very talented 24 year-old lefthanded starters have emerged this year for the A's: Dana Eveland and this afternoon's pitcher, Greg Smith. Smith has pitched very well, probably better overall than Eveland, but has been a bit of a hard-luck guy in terms of wins as he only has three (to go with four losses). But the main thing is that Oakland is a very impressive 6-4 in games which he's started and this is a great opportunity to make it 7-4 as the Rangers are hitting 40 points lower against lefties than righties (.249 vs. .288) and Smith has already beaten Texas once this year. Texas righthander Scott Feldman is winless in his last three starts and has had problems with consistency this season. Take the A's.
John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Over
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Reds/Braves – AiS shows a 72% probability that 10 or more runs will be scored in this game. On the surface, this looks like an easy play UNDER with two starters in decent form and two strong bullpens. Yet, this is where the value and power of my Ai Simulator identifies plays that appear to be contrarian. Sunday games, with the exception of the Sunday Night ESPN game, are all day games. With day games comes bright sun and warmer temps that allow for greater carry of the baseball when hit hard. Since joining the Reds, HC Baker is on a 7-1 OVER run when playing on Sunday. Reds starter Cuento has been a bright spot and budding star, but in recent starts his control has weakened. Over his last 3 starts his WHIP has risen to an unacceptable 1.687 and in 5 day starts he has posted a 5.40 ERA with 7 HR in just 31.7 IP. He has already allowed 12 HR on the season overall. Again, Hudson shows impressive flash stats, but has allowed 23 hits and 4 HR in his last 3 starts spanning just 21 IP. There are numerous supporting angles for this OVER play and I will mention a few of them. Reds are 36-15 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons; 27-15 OVER (+11.6 Units) versus terrible speed teams averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Reds are also 47-27 OVER versus the NL East over the past 3 seasons. Take the OVER
Drew Gordon
Houston +115 at MILWAUKEE
Solid value here with the Astros, as they may be struggling a bit coming into the month of June, but I look for them to turn things around this afternoon behind the surging Shawn Chacon.
Speaking of Chacon, he's gotten his two wins this season in his last two starts, allowing 5 runs on 12 hits over his last 14 innings (fanning 12). He was expecially impressive in his last start, in St. Louis, where he allowed only 2 runs over 7 innings, striking out 7 without issuing a single walk. No surprise there, as Chacon has been more effective on the highway this season than at home, going 1-0 with a 3.61 ERA.
Opposing Chacon is the Brewers Dave Bush, who pitching well against Atlanta in his last one, but that's hardly commonplace, as the Brewers righty is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Granted, he's been better at Miller Park, but regardless, he's still only 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA there this season... Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers!
While neither team here is especially proficient against righties, look for the Astros to come out more focused as they try and avoid their 5th consecutive loss and the series sweep. Its easy to forget the monster May this Houston club had since they came into June off 4 straight losses, but underestimate Berkman and company at your own risk in this one.
Small play on Houston behind Chacon over Milwaukee and Bush in this MLB match up.
1* HOUSTON
Karl Garrett
Houston +115 at MILWAUKEE
The G-Man gave you a winner on the Red Sox last night, as the comp play run moves to 96-85-3.
Today, I am going with the Houston Astros to stop their 4-game losing streak as they look to avoid the weekend sweep in Milwaukee.
Shawn Chacon has been pitching well, as he has had winning decisions his last 2 times on the bump.
The same cannot be said for his counterpart Dave Bush who has gone just 1-5 for the year, with an ERA over 6.
Yes, Milwaukee has been enjoying this homestand, as they have won 5 of their last 6 games, but Houston does have Carlos Lee, and Lance Berkman in their lineup to contend with, and today the bats of Lee, and Berkman will do damage to the suspect Bush.
Take Houston to end their slide at 4 in a row.
3* HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Florida at PHILADELPHIA
Today we like the hitters to dominate in the Marlins-Phillies game.
Last night Philadelphia was slowed a tad, as the offense was held to just 3 runs, but the game still made its way OVER the posted total.
For the Phils, 5 of their last 6 games have eclipsed the total, including the first 2 in this weekend set with the Marlins.
Florida is on a 6-0-2 OVER tear their last 8 games, and that tear is likely to continue with Miller and Moyer on the mound.
Andrew Miller sports a 5.53 ERA for the season, and 7 of his 10 starts this year have gone OVER the total.
Jamie Moyer sports a season ERA of 4.45, with 7 of his 11 starts this season landing in the OVER column.
Too many numbers support the OVER in this one, so play the HIGH, and watch the runs add up.
Play on the OVER.
4* OVER