Erin Rynning
20* Minnesota +110
Ben Burns
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Kansas City Royals
REASON FOR PICK: Many bettors shy away from playing on a team which has just snapped an extended losing streak. The general feeling seems to be that the team has already "accomplished it's mission" and that asking for a second straight win is simply "tempting fate." I've often found the opposite to be true. Rather than immediately revert back to it's losing form, the team which snapped it's lengthy skid, often finds a way to win two in a row. The players have got the "monkey off their backs" and the pressure has eased significantly. With the entire clubhouse a lot "looser," it's often a great time to build some momentum.
That being said, I won't blindly back a team which has just snapped it's losing skid. I'll play on or against that team depending on what the rest of my handicapping process has come up with. In this case, I expect the Royals to possess a significant edge in the starting pitching department and therefore feel that they do indeed have a solid shot at stringing together consecutive victories.
While he hasn't been blessed with much run support, Bannister is 1-1 with a superb 1.37 ERA and 0.712 WHIP in three career starts vs. the Indians. During that span, he allowed just 11 hits and three earned runs through 19 2/3 innings. This season, despite some recent struggles, Bannister is 3-2 with astellar 2.68 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in six home starts. Conversely, Byrd is 0-4 (Indians are 0-5!) in five road starts on the season, recording an ugly 6.93 ERA and 1.462 WHIP during that stretch. The Indians lost those five games by a combined score of 30-14. Note that while Bannister has averaged 6 2/3 innings per start at home, Byrd has managed just slighly over five innings per start on the road. Additionally, it's worth mentioning the Bannister beat Byrd, at Cleveland, when the two squared off against each other almost exactly one year ago. Lastly, while I'm not sure how relevant, it's still interesting to note that the Royals are 5-3 (+2.7) on Sundays this season while the Indians are just 2-5 (-4.8). Looking back further and we find the Tribe with a money-burning 27-34 (-16.8) mark on The Lord's Day since the start of the 2006 season. Consider a play on KC
STEPHEN NOVER
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: Two hot offenses. Two young starters. Two burned out bullpens. A total less than 10. Yes, I like the 'over' in this Yankees-Twins matchup.
The Yankees' bats have come alive. New York has 51 hits in its last four games. The Yankees are averaging 8.1 runs in their last seven games if you take away a one-run game against Baltimore.
The Twins are averaging six runs during their last nine games.
Don't look for youngsters Darrell Rasner and Nick Blackburn to get in the way of these speeding trains. Both teams have bullpen fatigue issues after Saturday's extra inning affair.
DAVE MALINSKY
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
The last three home starts made by Johan Santana the Mets have been favored by -187, -260 and -222 at first pitch. They won all three games, and in going 4-1 in his home starts they have out-scored the opposition by 13 runs. Now they are in against a team with a losing record that has significant injury issues; is struggling mightily on offense; has almost no experience against him; and sends a pitcher to the mound that we believe is vulnerable in this setting. Yet look at the price. Yes, sometimes there is value to be found in chalk in this range.
The Dodger offense has been anemic without Rafael Furcal setting the table. They have gone 8-14 over their last 22 games, and in half of those games scored two runs or less, including six one’s and a pair of shutouts. And it is not as though they have been taking on a bunch of Cy Young contenders - the shutouts came vs. Kyle Lohse and Chris Sampson, and among the starters that held them to a lone tally were the likes of Sean Gallagher and Brian Moehler. It has been 14 games since they last faced a left-hander, a feeble 4-2 loss to Joe Saunders, and that makes an already difficult transition against Santana even tougher. With tonight’s projected starting lineup having just 11 career at-bats against him, it will be another struggle for these bats to make good contact.
The Mets should have no such problems against Hiroki Kuroda. His stuff is good, not great, and the 3.29 ERA is not unexpected on his first pass through N.L. lineups. It is the second look in which we believe that his numbers will fall down, and this just happens to be the first of those settings. Since the Mets read him better the first time around than anyone else, that means the chance for some good swings tonight, particularly with Ryan Church returning to the lineup. The base numbers will show that Kuroda only allowed two earned runs over 3.1 vs. New York in that earlier loss at Chavez Ravine, but that does not tell the tale at all. Of the 22 batters that he faced 11 reached based, eight with hits, including a home run by Church, and three via a walk. It means that outside of the Church home run, nine of 10 that reached did not come around to score an earned run, which is like hitting a roulette spin for a pitcher. And while there were also two unearned runs, in this case we believe that they should count in the full numbers, because they came because of Kuroda’s own error. The pressure of tonight’s setting only exacerbates his potential issues, while Santana has been more than accustomed to Prime Time.
The latter stages are also in good hands for the Mets here. Santana eliminates the middle relief corps, and closer Billy Wagner is in a special rhythm right now - his 0.39 for the full season with 11 saves tells quite a tale on its own, but in this home-stand he has not been scored on through three appearances, striking out seven of the nine batters that he has faced, without allowing anyone to reach base. That is good stuff.
Brian Hansen
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Over
Reason: Member Pick: The bottom line here is that Miguel Batista is likely to get rocked. However, adding even more value to this play on the OVER is that Jeremy Bonderman has some ?over? history here as well. Bonderman?s last three starts against Seattle have resulted in two overs and a push. Four of the five games in this season series have gone OVER the total. Want more? Batista?s last three starts against Detroit have resulted in two overs and one under. Also, two of his last three starts heading into this one have gone over the total. As a small (+100 to +125) home dog, the Mariners are 5-1 to the OVER this season. Yesterday?s 5-0 game was the first under in this season series. The first four games between these teams this season averaged nearly 14 runs per game and they ALL went OVER.
Alex Smart Sports
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Under
The Minnesota Twins look to avert being swept by the visiting NY Yankees this afternoon, as they send, the capable Nick Blackburn to the hill . In home games this season the right hander has been very stable recording a 2.41 ERA in 5 starts. The Yankees will not leave town without a fight as they return fire with Darrell Rasner (3-1, 1.80 ERA), who has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his four starts this season. With two quality bullpens supporting both pitchers and two very inconsistent offenses facing these hurlers a low scoring tilt looks to be on the agenda. Final notes & Key Trends: The Yankees are 12-2 in day games this season with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 7 RPG. Play under
Sportsbettingstats
L.A. Dodgers at New York Mets
In yesterday's game between these two teams the Mets beat the Dodgers 3-2. The Mets are back to .500 and look to win this series against the Dodgers with a win tonight at Shea Stadium. This is their last game at home before a west coast swing, but they have a chance to gain some ground in the NL East, as their next two series' are against the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres, who have the 2 of the 3 worst records in the NL. In the Mets last 10 games they are 5-5 and in the Dodgers last 10 games they are 3-7. Taking the mound for the Dodgers is Hiroki Kuroda (2-4) 3.29 ERA, who has not received much run support in his starts, which can be seen by his last start when he went 6 innings and gave up only 1 earned run but still received the loss. In yesterdays win the Dodgers scored 2 runs on 7 hits and left 5 men on base. Taking the mound for the Mets is their Ace Johan Santana (6-3 3.41 ERA), who has looked great in his last few starts. In his last outing he went 7 innings giving up 3 earned runs in the win. In yesterdays win over the Dodgers the Mets scored 3 runs on 8 hits and left 11 men on base. Carlos Beltran went deep for the Mets in the game for his 5th home run.
Staff Pick: The Mets look to go above .500 in this game and they have their Ace on the mound in Santana. The pitching match up has to go to the Mets, but they have to give him some run support. The Mets still need to hit better as a team with men on base, as even though they won last night they still stranded 11 runners. The Dodgers are slumping now after their long winning streak. The Dodgers offense has been in funk during their slump and needs to rebound, but against a hot pitcher like Santana that is no easy feat. Santana should handle the Dodgers in this nationally televised game and the Mets need to give him a few runs to work with. Look for a low scoring game, but for Santana to throw a gem and win at home.
Mets 4 Dodgers 2
Indian Cowboy
Pod Pitt/Stl Over
Regular Conn WNBA
Ben Burns
5* San Francisco Giants
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER TOTALS WINNER
Pittsburgh and St Louis OVER 9
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Gallagher -160
Teddy Covers
3* SF Giants
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
NY Mets w/Santana -167
Brian Gabrielle
Kyle Busch comes into this weekend atop the points board, with Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt Jr. close behind. All three will have to contend with the Miracle Mile at Dover.
Last Week: Argh. We had a winning week, but we also had Tony Stewart at a ludicrous (for him) +1200, and he had the Charlotte race won. With just three laps left and Smoke leading comfortably, he burst a tire and smacked into the wall, letting Kasey Kahne have a gift of a win.
Fortunately, Kyle Busch was able to beat Jimmie Johnson, so we won our head-to-head matchup, but anyone who has said we've been lucky so far this year can officially stick it where the sun doesn't shine. That was a really tough way to lose good money last week.
Anyway, for the week, we profited 0.17 units on 1.5 units wagered, a return of 11.3%. For the season, we've profited 7.46 units on 17 units wagered, a return of 43.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 11 of 12 events.
At this week's Best Buy 400 at Dover International Speedway, take Greg Biffle (+1000), 1/6th unit: This week, we head to the Monster Mile at Dover, which is like Bristol on steroids – high-banked and concrete, a brake-intensive place that nevertheless allows you to go fast through the corners. No one on the Sprint Cup circuit has a better finishing average in the five Car of Tomorrow races that've happened at Dover and Bristol than Greg Biffle.
The Biff finished second and sixth at Dover last year, and was fourth at Bristol this March. He's a great bet to finish in the top five, and considering how close he was to winning at both Darlington and Charlotte over the last three weeks, he's due.
Take Carl Edwards (+600), 1/6th unit: Edwards won at both Dover and Bristol last fall, and also posted a third-place finish at Dover in this race last spring. He was disappointing last weekend at Charlotte, though he was on the comeback trail before he got his front end bashed in during a late restart. I expect him to be in close contention for this win.
Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800), 1/6th unit: I'm going to be honest here; I think Kyle Busch (+500) probably has a better chance of winning this race, but at odds that low for a driver who often has bouts of wildness, I just think that's kind of a sucker bet. So I'm going to go with the guy who replaced the Shrub in the Hendrick stable.
Junior has been so close on several occasions this year, including last week, when it looked like he had the car to beat late at Charlotte, but a late blown tire caused him to crash into the wall, whereupon J.J. Yeley T-boned him. Junior has the fifth-best COT average at Dover and Bristol combined, including a third here at Dover last fall and a fifth, fifth and seventh in three COT Bristol events. He's so close. His 74-race non-winning streak could end this week.
Mike Rose
2* Cincinnati
3* Dodgers/Mets Over 7.5
5* Utah Blaze/Grand Rapids Rampage Over 118