SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA FINALS
(1) L.A. Lakers (12-4, 10-5-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (13-8, 9-12 ATS)
The Lakers will try to draw even while the Celtics look to take a 2-0 lead when Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off inside TD Banknorth Garden.
Boston took Game 1 98-88 on Thursday, getting the cash as a three-point home chalk. The Celtics’ defense held Los Angeles to just 15 fourth-quarter points and 41.6 percent shooting from the floor for the game, including 3-of-14 shooting from beyond the 3-point line, and outrebounded the Lakers 46-33. The Celtics got 24 points and 13 rebounds from superstar forward Kevin Garnett and an inspirational 22 points from Paul Pierce who had to be carried from the court in the third quarter only to return and hit momentum-turning 3-pointers later in the quarter.
The Lakers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 starts overall dating to the regular season, but a mediocre 4-3 ATS in their last seven. Meanwhile, even with Thursday’s win and cover, the Celtics have struggled at the betting window throughout the playoffs and are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
Doc Rivers’ squad has won all three matchups (SU and ATS) between these two rivals this season, with each being a double-digit victory. In addition to the Game 1 triumph, the Celtics won 107-94 at home in November laying eight points and 110-91 on Dec. 30 catching three points in L.A.
Prior to this season, the Lakers had won three in a row and six of eight head-to-head clashes dating to 2003, and despite the three non-covers this year, L.A. is still 7-4 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Also, Phil Jackson’s squad has cashed in five of the last seven battles in Boston, and the road team is 5-3 ATS in the last eight contests.
The Lakers have four road victories in the 2008 playoffs (4-0 ATS), while the Celtics have just one home loss in 12 postseason games. However, since cashing in all four home games of its first-round series against Atlanta, Boston is 2-6 ATS in its last eight on its own floor.
The Celtics, who have 16 NBA championships, and the Lakers, who have 14 titles, have met 10 times previously in the NBA Finals. However, this is their first Finals matchup since 1987, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson carried the banner for the league. Boston holds a commanding 8-2 edge in championship series, winning the first eight clashes before Los Angeles – behind Johnson during its “Showtime” era – broke through with titles in 1985 and 1987.
The Lakers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six NBA Finals games. But even with Thursday’s defeat, the recent pointspread trends are nothing but positive from there for L.A., including 36-17-2 overall, 6-1 after an ATS loss and 10-5 against the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home against teams with a winning road record, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Sunday and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the Pacific Division. However, Boston is mired in pointspread funks of 1-6 after a spread-cover and 4-7 after a SU win.
Game 1 stayed under the 191½-point total, making the under 6-0 in Los Angeles’ last six games overall, 7-2 in its last nine on the highway, 7-1 in its last eight as a road underdog and 5-1 in its last six as a playoff pup. However, the over is still 5-2 in the Lakers’ last seven against Atlantic Division foes. For Boston, the over is 4-2 in its last six at the Garden, but the under is on runs of 4-1 on Sundays, 5-1 after a SU win and 5-1 when laying less than five points.
Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head matchups in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
James Patrick
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
It’s a Bird Fight in the Skydome on Sunday and our money and selection in Major League Baseball is Toronto Blue Jays with ace Roy Halladay in American League action.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Philadelphia
Note: The Phillies wrap up their three game series with the Braves in Atlanta behind Adam Eaton. After a slow start Eaton is back on on the winning track. With Jorge Campillo averaging less than 5 innings per start, look for Eaton to improve to 13-4 on Sundays, including 9-3 away, here today.
Robert Ross
St Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
St Louis Cardinals
Like the Cards in this spot. ST LOUIS is 11-4 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. HOUSTON is 19-41 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 3 seasons.
Take St. Louis!
Scott Spreitzer
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Over
I'm playing the Over in the Giants/Nationals game Sunday. Scoring has increased on the East Coast as the weather has warmed up. And, the early evidence is that this new ballpark in DC will see some runs in favorable conditions. In fact, the Washington staff had allowed 57 runs in its prior nine home games heading into the weekend. That's more than six per game just for the visitors! The Nats have to go with an off rotation pitcher today because of injuries and a doubleheader earlier this week. If the staff is vulnerable normally, they'll be particularly vulnerable in a spot like this. Barry Zito is pitching for the Giants. His ERA is an awful 5.87 this season, with a WHIP of 1.84. I expect both teams to score. If they each get to 5 runs we've got an easy winner. We might even see a replay of the 10-9 game played between the Nats and the Cards in Game Two of that aforementioned doubleheader. The Over in the Giants/Nationals game is the play.
Ted Sevransky
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
PICK: Over
It’s going to be in the mid 90’s on a humid day in New York City when the first pitch is thrown on Sunday, with the wind blowing out to center field. Clearly, those are ideal conditions for Over bettors. Umpire Phil Cuzzi has a decided ‘Over’ bent; 8-5 to the Over this year and 27-19 to the Over in the last two seasons. And with the Yankees and Royals combining to score 23 runs in a day game yesterday, there’s little reason to expect anything but another high scoring ballgame again today.
Yes, Joba Chamberlain has nasty stuff, and the Royals are not a good offensive team, ranked dead last in the AL in runs scored. But Chamberlain will be on a strict pitch count (no more than 75-80 pitches), and the Yankees middle relief behind him has been a problem area for New York all season. And frankly, it might not take more than a handful of runs from KC to send this game Over the total.
Yes, Zack Grienke has been the Royals best pitcher for much of the season, and yes, he shut down the Bronx Bombers in his lone previous start against them back in April. But Grienke has been roughed up for 17 earned runs and 23 hits in his last three starts, including allowing four home runs in his last trip to the hill. The Royals bullpen behind him, too, is a major problem area after six relievers combined to throw 106 pitches in yesterday’s slugfest, and closer Joakim Soria won’t be available here after pitching in each of the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is starting to come alive, with a nine run outburst on Thursday preceding yesterday’s 12 run attack. Take the Over.
Big Al McMordie
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Under
At 1:30pm our complimentary selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves 'under' the total. Potentially the best news for the Phillies is if righthanded starter Adam Eaton finally starts performing like the pitcher they thought he was capable of being when they acquired him from Texas after the 2006 season. After a disasterous start to this season (par for the course for Eaton) and failing to get a win in his first ten starts, Eaton has now won his last two and looks like a completely different pitcher when he steps on the mound. He will need to continue that type of performance today against a team that is the best at home in the NL this year (25-9 going into Saturday night's contest against these Phils) and with a very strong 29 year-old righthander named Jorge Campillo who is undefeated in five lifetime starts, four of which have been this season. In fact, in his first four lifetime starts (before his June 3 appearance against the Marlins), Campillo had only given up a total of one earned run while the Braves have won each of those games. Although Campillo has never faced the Phillies, he has faced some pretty potent opposition this season in the Brewers, Mets, and Diamondbacks. He appears to be over the blister problems that plagued him earlier, but the Braves have been cautious with him and limiting his pitch count. Despite the loss of John Smoltz (who was going to become the closer) the Braves' bullpen is in very good shape and veteran Rafael Soriano has regained his job as the stopper as well as his excellent form. The Phils bullpen has been even better and could very well be the best relief corps in baseball right now (2.69 relief ERA on the year). Take the 'under'.
Scott Ferrall
NL FREE B's FOR SUNDAY
Milwaukee +105 on ML over Colorado--Suppan stops the bleeding in Denver for the Brewers over Francis.
METS -140 on ML over padres--Pedro beats San Diego to finally end this nightmare in So. cal over the weekend when NY just couldn't score runs
DODGERS -120 on ML over Cubs--Brad Penny finsihes off the sweep of Chicago at Chavez Revine.
AL FREE B'S FOR SUNDAY
WHITE SOX -145 on ML over Minnesota--Gavin Floyd gets the W and the Chicago sweep of the series. The Sox are 18-9 on the South Side this season. TAKE THE OVER 9 RUNS
Angles +120 on ML over A's--Ervin Santana beats Harden in the Coliseum at Oakland as a dog. TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 RUNS
Tampa -130 on ML over Texas--Garza keeps the Rays winning games in Arlington.
Lucky Leprechaun Sports
DETROIT -140 over Cleveland
The Tigers hit lefties well, the indians do not. After yesterday's win the Tigers are now 8-4 vs lefties this year, scoring 5.9 rpg and hitting .298 in the process. At home detroit hits .287 and scores 5.9 rpg. Cleveland hits lefties at a .242 clip and scores 5 rpg vs them. The Indians also score just 2.8 rpg in day games and 4.3 rpg on the road. The Tiger send out the D-Train for his 4th start of teh year and his is 0-0 with a 4.00 ERA in his first 3 starts and even though he is 0-1 in 2 career starts vs the Tribe he has a 2.25 ERA vs them. Jeremy Sowers has just 2 starts on the year and is 0-0 with a 5.23 ERA, plus he is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Tigers. Neither pitcher in this game has beengood this year, but the Tigers get the edge for playing at home, plus they hit lefties much better than the Tribe. Should be a good one but the Tigers will prevail in the end.
COLORADO -118 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are 4-14 in their last 18 road games and 3-15 in their last 18 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, while the Rockies are11-2 in Francis' last 13 starts vs. National League Central and 19-9 in Francis' last 28 starts with 4 days of rest. The Rockies have it going right now as they come in having won 4 in a row. Their pitching has been a big part of the little run as they have allowed just 1.8 rpg over the 4 games. The Rockies also got a little healthier last night as Brad Hawpe returned and all he did was go 2-4 with a grand slam. Jeff Francis gets the ball for the Rockies and ven though he has struggled this year he has pitched much better in his last 2 games, going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 2 starts. The Brewers don't play very well on the road as they are 13-20, while hitting for just .246 and scoring only 4.4 rpg. The Brewers also have problems with lefties scoring just 4.1 rpg vs them this year. Jeff Suppan gets the ball for the Brewers and he has been bad on the road this year, going 1-4 with a 6,27 ERA. Suppans is 5-1 in his career vs the Rockies, but the Brewers are bad on the road this year and Colorado is on a bit of a roll. Take the Rockies in this one.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Kansas City at NY YANKEES
After yesterday's wild 12-11 outcome, we wonder if there are any runs left in these two teams today?
We say yes!
Starter Zach Greinke has gone south of late, as he has allowed a massive 17 runs to score over his last 19 innings for an 0-2 mark. Greinke did baffle the Yankees back in April, working 8 scoreless agains them in a win, so expect New York to be itching for a payback.
Joba Chamberlain will get his second start of the year for the Yanks, and Joba is on a strict pitch count, so don't expect him to be around for long in this game. That fact alone tells me the Royals will be able to score a few runs off of New York pitching today.
Over the last 11 games played between these teams in the Bronx, 8 have found the OVER column, including yesterday's 12-11 scorefest.
Play the OVER once again today between the Royals and Yankees.
5* OVER
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels at OAKLAND -135
Improved to 12-4 over the last 16 days with FREE plays after the Angels got the best of the A's on Saturday. Today we're right back in Oakland with a comp play but this time we're going with the home-team A's to beat the Angels.
This is a tough call on this one as Angels' starter Ervin Santana (8-2, 3.02 ERA) has been red-hot lately and against Oakland. But we're going to play the A's and starter Rich Harden (3-0, 2.61) to shut down the Angels in this one.
Oakland has lost the first two games of this series, including Saturday's 5-3 loss, but they won't lose three straight as Harden is going to pitch a gem today. He's 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA at home this season and the A's are 4-1 in his five starts since coming off the DL in ealry May.
The A's are 25-9 at home wtih harden on the mound, 25-8 with him as a home favorite, 39-16 overall, 17-5 agaisnt the A.L. West and 17-8 when he faces winning teams.
And against the Angels, the A's have won five of Harden's last six starts dating back to 2004 and he is 5-3 with a 3.95 ERA in 11 career starts against them.
We're also banking on Santana's road luck running out today as he was terrible for two seasons on the highway before finding some success this season.
Play the A's and Harden in this matchup.
3* OAKLAND
BIG AL's JAW-DROPPING 20-0 ATS NBA SYSTEM WINNER.
At 9:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the LA Lakers over Boston. Currently, as of this writing, Boston is a 1-point favorite, and thus falls into a nasty 0-20 ATS playoff system that's 100% perfect since June 1993. What we want to do is fade any home team, priced from -1.5 to +4 points in the final 3 rounds of the playoffs, that's off a pointspread win more than 2 points, provided it is matched up against a foe with a win percentage of .700 or better. With Boston in off a 10-point win as a 3-point fave, we'll fade the men in green on Sunday. Take the Lakers.
Scott Spreitzer's NBA Finals "TOTAL" DOMINATOR OF THE YEAR! *8-1, 89%!
Scott Spreitzer is on a RED-HOT 8-1, 89% PLAYOFF RUN after slamming the books with his NBA Game of the Year win on Boston! On Sunday, Scott's clocking the books again with his NBA FINALS "TOTAL DOMINATOR" OF THE YEAR! Grab the Over/Under winner as Scott extends his postseason run to 9-1, 90% winners!
LA/Bos Over 190.5
Big AL Underdog GOM
Mariners
Brian Gabrielle
Pocono 500 Picks
Take Denny Hamlin +600 1/6th unit. This week we head to Pocono Raceway a strange giant track in rural Pennsylvania. The Car of Tomorrow has never run at a joint like this one so its tough to know exactly what to expect and its also tough to definitively apply what we know about past results here to our wagering strategy. Still with Hamlins strength at this place the past couple years its hard not to look his way. In four career Cup starts here Hamlin has two wins and three top-fives.
Take Kyle Busch +500 1/6th unit. Okay I give. I didnt want to take the younger Busch at these odds last week because Dover is a very tricky track that can mess you up quick if you drive with a bad temper. Considering Kyle Busch is bad temper personified I figured it was better to stay away from him as a favorite. But Ill relent this week because Pocono is a lot easier track on which to stay wheels-up. The younger Busch has never finished better than fourth at this track and only has two top-10s in six career starts here but that hasnt seemed to matter much to him in 08. He could win for the fifth time Sunday.
Take Kurt Busch +1800 1/6th unit. I know the Blue Deuce has been dreadful this year and these odds are long for a reason. But the elder Busch won the last Cup race here in the old car last summer and more importantly translated his Pocono skills to very fast lap times in a COT test session here a couple weeks ago. Its too late for this Busch to salvage his season and make the Chase but he can play spoiler and I think he might just do that on Sunday. This is a long-odds bet I actually feel rather good about.
In this weeks head-to-head match-up take Kyle Busch over Carl Edwards -140 1 unit. Why not play the sucker odds all the way baby? Edwards is the circuits second-hottest driver right behind the Shrub so these are certainly some inauspicious odds but King Carls record at Pocono over the past several years isnt very good he hasnt topped 14th place here in the four Cup events. Based on how well hes driven this year itd be pretty hard to justify taking anyone over Kyle Busch just about now.
Jack Clayton
Cubs at Dodgers
Pick: Cubs
Cubs have the top offense in the NL and are on a roll. Is there something wrong with LA starter Brad Penny? He's certainly pitching like a guy with an injury, 0-3 with a 5.83 ERA his last 3 starts. Play the Cubs.