SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA FINALS
(1) L.A. Lakers (12-4, 10-5-1 ATS) at (1) Boston (13-8, 9-12 ATS)
The Lakers will try to draw even while the Celtics look to take a 2-0 lead when Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off inside TD Banknorth Garden.
Boston took Game 1 98-88 on Thursday, getting the cash as a three-point home chalk. The Celtics’ defense held Los Angeles to just 15 fourth-quarter points and 41.6 percent shooting from the floor for the game, including 3-of-14 shooting from beyond the 3-point line, and outrebounded the Lakers 46-33. The Celtics got 24 points and 13 rebounds from superstar forward Kevin Garnett and an inspirational 22 points from Paul Pierce who had to be carried from the court in the third quarter only to return and hit momentum-turning 3-pointers later in the quarter.
The Lakers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 starts overall dating to the regular season, but a mediocre 4-3 ATS in their last seven. Meanwhile, even with Thursday’s win and cover, the Celtics have struggled at the betting window throughout the playoffs and are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
Doc Rivers’ squad has won all three matchups (SU and ATS) between these two rivals this season, with each being a double-digit victory. In addition to the Game 1 triumph, the Celtics won 107-94 at home in November laying eight points and 110-91 on Dec. 30 catching three points in L.A.
Prior to this season, the Lakers had won three in a row and six of eight head-to-head clashes dating to 2003, and despite the three non-covers this year, L.A. is still 7-4 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Also, Phil Jackson’s squad has cashed in five of the last seven battles in Boston, and the road team is 5-3 ATS in the last eight contests.
The Lakers have four road victories in the 2008 playoffs (4-0 ATS), while the Celtics have just one home loss in 12 postseason games. However, since cashing in all four home games of its first-round series against Atlanta, Boston is 2-6 ATS in its last eight on its own floor.
The Celtics, who have 16 NBA championships, and the Lakers, who have 14 titles, have met 10 times previously in the NBA Finals. However, this is their first Finals matchup since 1987, when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson carried the banner for the league. Boston holds a commanding 8-2 edge in championship series, winning the first eight clashes before Los Angeles – behind Johnson during its “Showtime” era – broke through with titles in 1985 and 1987.
The Lakers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six NBA Finals games. But even with Thursday’s defeat, the recent pointspread trends are nothing but positive from there for L.A., including 36-17-2 overall, 6-1 after an ATS loss and 10-5 against the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home against teams with a winning road record, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Sunday and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the Pacific Division. However, Boston is mired in pointspread funks of 1-6 after a spread-cover and 4-7 after a SU win.
Game 1 stayed under the 191½-point total, making the under 6-0 in Los Angeles’ last six games overall, 7-2 in its last nine on the highway, 7-1 in its last eight as a road underdog and 5-1 in its last six as a playoff pup. However, the over is still 5-2 in the Lakers’ last seven against Atlantic Division foes. For Boston, the over is 4-2 in its last six at the Garden, but the under is on runs of 4-1 on Sundays, 5-1 after a SU win and 5-1 when laying less than five points.
Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head matchups in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (39-24) at L.A. Dodgers (30-32)
The Dodgers will try to make it three in a row over the Cubs when they send ace Brad Penny (5-7, 5.45 ERA) to the mound to take on Chicago’s Jason Marquis (3-3, 5.02) at Dodger Stadium.
After dropping Thursday’s opener 5-4, Los Angeles has won the last two, winning 3-0 Friday night and following it up with an 7-3 win Saturday afternoon thanks to a five-run seventh inning against Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano.
The Cubs won the first four games this season against the Dodgers and they’ve gone 20-9 in their last 29 overall, 7-3 in their last 10 against teams with a losing record, 17-5 against the N.L. West and 7-3 against right-handed starters.
Joe Torre’s Dodgers are just 4-9 in their last 13 overall, 1-4 on Sundays, 4-7 against right-handed starters and 2-4 against teams from the N.L. Central.
The Cubs have won three of Marquis’ last four starts and he’s allowed exactly three runs in each of those four, including three runs on four hits in five innings of a 9-6 win in San Diego Tuesday. Marquis faced the Dodgers last season and gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings but the Dodgers got the win 7-4.
For his career, Marquis is 2-1 in seven starts against the Dodgers with a 2.25 ERA in 48 innings of work. Chicago is just 1-4 in his last five starts as a ‘dog and 3-7 when he starts on the road against a team with a losing record.
Penny has been beaten up in his last three starts, going 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA as the Dodgers have lost five of his last six outings. He has dominated the Cubs the last two seasons, giving up just one earned run in 14 innings of action as the Dodgers have won both starts, 6-0 and 6-2. For his career, Penny is 3-2 in eight starts against the Cubs with a 2.42 ERA in 52 innings.
The Dodgers are 41-18 in Penny’s last 59 starts as a favorite, 13-3 in his last 16 against the N.L. Central and 21-10 when he’s favored at home, but they are 0-5 in his last five against winning teams.
With Marquis on the hill, the under is 7-3-1 in his last 11 on the road, 4-1 when he pitches on Sunday, 6-2 against the N.L. West and 5-2 when he pitches as a ‘dog. The Dodgers are 28-12 in Penny’s last 40 starts as a home favorite, 20-9 when he faces a team with a winning record, 35-16 in his last 51 home starts and 8-3 in his last 11 overall.
For the Dodgers, the under is 8-3 in their last 11 at home, 13-5 overall, 13-3 on Sundays, 9-2 with them as a favorite and 9-2 against the N.L. Central. For the Cubs, the under is 35-17-4 in their last 55 road games, 10-4 against right-handed starters and 16-7-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record.
In head-to-head matchups, the under is 5-2 in the last seven series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (39-24) at Oakland (33-29)
The Angels shoot for their eighth straight victory today when they hand the ball to Ervin Santana (8-2, 3.02 ERA) as he battles the A’s and Rich Harden (3-0, 2.61) at McAfee Coliseum in Oakland.
Los Angeles won its seventh straight game with Saturday’s 5-3 victory over Oakland, following Friday’s 3-1 win. The Angels are now 21-11 on the road this year, while the A’s are 20-15 at McAfee, including 8-4 in the last 12.
The Angels have won four of the last five against the A’s and are 4-2 in the six series clashes this season. Oakland was riding a four-game winning streak before the Angels arrived in town. The road team is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings, and the Angels have won five of the last six in Oakland.
Santana is 5-1 on the highway with a 3.59 ERA and 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three outings. In Seattle Tuesday he allowed two runs on six hits in 7 2/3 innings of a 4-2 victory. The Angels are 20-6 in Santana’s last 26 starts against the A.L. West, 7-3 in his last 10 outings and 5-2 in his last seven on the road.
The Angels have won seven of his last eight starts against the A’s including back on April 30 when he allowed one run (zero earned) on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-1 win. For his career, Santana is 8-1 against the A’s in 10 starts with a 1.25 ERA over 72 innings of work.
Harden is 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA at home this season and the A’s are 4-1 in his five starts since returning off the DL in early May. On Tuesday he allowed two runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings as Oakland beat the Tigers 3-2. With Harden on the hill, the A’s are 25-9 at home, 25-8 as a home favorite, 39-16 overall, 17-5 against the A.L. West, 5-0 on Sundays and 17-8 against winning teams.
The A’s have won five of Harden’s last six starts against the Angels dating back to 2004, but he hasn’t seen them since October 2006 when he allowed six runs in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-10 Oakland win. Harden is 5-3 in 11 career starts against Los Angeles with a 3.95 ERA in 73 innings.
The under is 7-3 in Santana’s last 10 Sunday starts, 4-0 in his last four and 4-1 for him on the road, but the over is 10-3-2 in his last 15 as a road ‘dog, 11-4-2 with as a ‘dog and 6-1-1 in his last eight on the road against a team with a winning record. For Harden, the over is 10-1 in his last 11 against the A.L. West, 4-1 on Sundays and 6-0 when he gets five days of rest, but the under is 5-1 with him as a home favorite and 5-2 with him as a favorite in any venue.
It’s all “unders” for the Angels, including 8-2-1 on the road, 20-6-1 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 6-1-1 against a right-handed starter, 4-1 as a road ‘dog and 19-7-1 against right-handed starters. For Oakland, the over is 4-1 as a favorite, 7-3 as a home favorite and 5-0 in Game 3 of a series, while the under is 8-3 for the A’s on Sundays and 4-1 in their last five at home against a righty.
In series clashes, the under is 39-16-3 overall, 5-0-2 in the last seven in Oakland, 9-1 the last 10 times Santana has faced the A’s and 4-0 the last four times he’s pitched in Oakland. For Harden, the over is 8-3 the last 11 times he’s faced the Angels.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
ATS Consultants
Newsletter Plays
Houston over St. Louis - Preferred Play
Over in the Seattle/Boston game - Preferred Play
GOLD SHEET'S LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE
LA LAKERS
ATS Consultants
Newsletter Plays
Houston over St. Louis - Preferred Play
Over in the Seattle/Boston game - Preferred Play
Thanks Ice 🙂
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's loss in LA and take advantage of Brad Penny's five-game losing streak as well as the Dodgers' 5-8 mark as a home favorite from -125 to -150. Chicago is the underdog pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, JUNE 8
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.980; Florida (Tucker) 15.372
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 953-954: Arizona at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 13.805; Pittsburgh (Dumatrait) 15.535
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Eaton) 15.263; Atlanta (Campillo) 16.428
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under
Game 957-958: San Francisco at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.493; Washington (Mock) 13.882
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-105); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105); Over
Game 959-960: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 14.097; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.146
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-125); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.701; Colorado (Francis) 15.030
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Under
Game 963-964: NY Mets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Martinez) 16.167; San Diego (Ledezma) 14.604
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-135); Under
Game 965-966: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Marquis) 15.547; LA Dodgers (Penny) 14.155
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); Under
Game 967-968: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 15.203; Detroit (Willis) 14.291
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Over
Game 969-970: Kansas City at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.090; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 14.754
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+160); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Liz) 15.063; Toronto (Halladay) 15.942
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-220); Over
Game 973-974: Seattle at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Bedard) 15.672; Boston (Masterson) 14.621
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over
Game 975-976: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 14.351; White Sox (Floyd) 16.716
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Over
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.161; Oakland (Harden) 16.736
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-130); Over
Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.224; Texas (Mathis) 14.520
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 11
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over
NBA
LA Lakers at Boston
The Celtics are coming off an emotional win in Game One (98-88) and look to build on their 34-17 ATS record after a win by 10 points or more. Boston is the pick (Pick) in Game Two according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (Pick). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, JUNE 8
Game 503-504: LA Lakers at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 127.330; Boston 128.858
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 190
Dunkel Pick: Boston; Over
Jim Feist
NYM Mets and SD Padres
Take Under
It's no secret that San Diego is a huge pitcher's park, tough on hitters, where fly balls go to die. The Padres have the worst offense in the NL and have to face ace Pedro Martinez. The Mets are 9th in the NL in offense and San Diego starter Wilfredo Ledezma allows opponents to hit .300 on him on the road, but .216 at home. San Diego started 18-10 under the total at home. Play the Mets/Padres under the total!
Dave Cokin
LA Angels and OAK Athletics
Take OAK Athletics
Ervin Santana is enjoying a huge rebound season for the Angels. He's pitched at an All Star level and is a big key to the Halos residence atop the AL West. But the one hole in Santana's game is still his inability to win day games on the road, and he's matched up really tough here with Rich Harden. The A's righty is one of the game's best when he's healthy, and all systems seem to be go for Harden right now. I'll back the A's to win the series finale.
Brandon Lang
25 Dime - Lakers Money Line
10 Dime - Rockies
5 Dime - Astros
Drew Gordon
NY Mets -140 at SAN DIEGO
I'll be the first to admit the Mets won't come cheap this afternoon, but with good reason, as they're looking to avoid an embarrasing 4-game sweep at the hands of one of the worst teams in the National League today at Petco.
Mets have scored a grand total of just 3 runs this series, but I expect them to come out swinging against the Padres struggling southpaw Wilfredo Ledezma in this one. Mets have been far more proficient against lefties this season, batting .268 on the season against them (as opposed to .246 against righties) AND averaging a healthy 5.5 runs per game when facing a lefty on the road!
Speaking of lefties, Ledezma has had the benefit of pitching in 4 straight home games, yet was terrible in all but one, against the sorry-ass Nationals. In his 3 other home starts, he's allowed 12 runs in just 11 2/3 innings, walking 9 batters in the process! Guys, needless to say, Ledezma is just what the doctor ordered to get this Mets offense going again, and I say that's exactly what they'll do this afternoon.
Of course the final piece of the puzzle is the Mets starter Pedro Martinez, who looked solid in his first start back, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits over 6 innings in a win at San Francisco Tuesday. The Mets and especially Willie Randolph can hardly afford to get swept by the suddenly surging Padres, and lucky for them they got just the pitcher to stop the bleeding in Martinez... Facing a Padres offense that averages just 3.8 runs per game against righties at home won't hurt either! Mets save a little face with a win today at Petco.
Take the NY Mets behind Martinez over the Padres and Ledezma in afternoon MLB action.
2* NY METS
Karl Garrett
LA Lakers at BOSTON
NBA total tonight, as I like Game Two to head OVER the posted total.
I know Game One held UNDER the posted price thanks to the Lakers netting just 37 points in the second half, that after the teams had combined for 97 points by halftime.
That UNDER puts the Lakers at 6 straight playoff UNDERS, but now faced with the prospect of heading back home down 0-2, expect the Lakes to muster some more offense in an effort to even this series up.
The Lakers are on a 10-4 OVER run their last 14 games played against the Atlantic Division, and the G-Man will play a hunch, and back the OVER in the second game of this best-of-seven series.
Play the HIGH!
2* OVER
Matt Rivers
Sunday take the Phillies at Turner Field.
Jorge Campillo has been brilliant this season, save that last game against the Marlins, and is probably better than Adam Eaton but once again, just like the first game of the series, I cannot pass up the first place and red hot Phillies plus a sweet price. Oh and by the way Eaton has been pretty darn good recently as well.
Rollins, Utley and Howard form the best offensive threesome in all of baseball and these guys have the upside to bash away against any opposing hurler and especially a righthander, which Campillo is. Charlie Manual's club is in first place and does not appear to be slowing down.
I will give Bobby Cox' gang credit as they have been great at Turner Field and Chipper Jones has been the best player in baseball but this game is really no worse than 50-50 for us and at this price there's no reason to not give it a go.
Chipper, Teixiera, McCann, Escobar, Francouer and the rest of the Bravos are certainly formidable and have a great shot to win this game but I would never ever lay this money to the Fightin' Phils but I will gladly back the visitors here!
Jake Timlin
You see with Joba Chamberlain still on a pitch count as the righty makes his second career start I fully expect the Royals to take advantage. I mean after scoring 11 runs in yesterday’s loss the Royals are more then productive at the plate and once Joba reaches his pitch count early Kansas City will be able to roll against the Yankees bull pen that has to be getting tired. Flat out while Joba will be a solid starter one day don’t expect any miracles early as only being about to go a few innings each game right now Chamberlain puts the Yankees in a tough spot which will continue today.
Take the Royals plus the money today.
Tony Weston
We’re sticking with some American League action tonight as we’re taking the Tampa Bay Rays over the Texas Rangers.
The Rays come into this game having won the first two meetings of this series and having gone 4-1 against Texas so far this season.
Also, Tampa is 20-9 its last 29 games, while Texas comes into this game 2-5 its last seven games.
This will be another easy win for Tampa and give the Rays their fourth straight win over Texas.
Take the Rays on the road tonight.
3* RAYS
John Fina
Selection: Milwaukee Brewers +105
Reason: Put us down on the Milwaukee Brewers (+105) for our Free MLB Selection on Sunday. Today the Milwaukee Brewers will be on the road as they take on the Colorado Rockies. We will side with the Milwaukee Brewers! One reason why we will side with the Milwaukee Brewers is because they will be sending to the mound the starting pitcher who has been pitching a lot better as of late. This says it all... The Milwaukee Brewers Starting Pitcher (Jeff Suppan) has a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Colorado Rockies Starting Pitcher (Jeff Francis) has a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Milwaukee Brewers will be sending to the mound the much better starting pitcher. To say the least, we see the Milwaukee Brewers beating the Colorado Rockies today. Take the Milwaukee Brewers!
Brian Marshall
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play On: Pittsburgh Pirates -120
Game Analyses: The Pittsburgh Pirates should be able to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in Sunday's MLB game.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will be lead by starting pitcher Doug Davis. Doug Davis has been struggling as of late. In fact, Doug Davis has a 4.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Doug Davis having another bad game today.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will be lead by starting pitcher Phil Dumatrait. Phil Dumatrait has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Phil Dumatrait has a 1.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Phil Dumatrait pitching another great game today.
The bottom line, the Pittsburgh Pirates should be able to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks!