JB's COMPUTER PICKS
Boston Red Sox -160
New York Yankees -135
St. Louis Cardinals +125
Karl Garrett
Cubs at TORONTO -120
The G-Man's Saturday comp play was washed away, as the Rangers and Mets were done in by the rain drops.
Still on a 10-2 comp play run as I enter play for Sunday.
Afternoon baseball action from Canada today, and I will take the Blue Jays to take today's rubber game against the Cubs.
Chicago is just 15-17 away from the Friendly Confines this season, and starter Ted Lilly has been a bog part of the Cubs struggles on the road this year, as his 2-3 mark with an over 5 ERA shows.
Toronto starter Jesse Litsch is 3-0 at home this season with a 2.97 ERA, and the G-Man will side with Litsch and his Jays to hand the Cubs another road setback.
Take Toronto in this one.
3* TORONTO
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees -125 at HOUSTON
We're 16-7 with our last 23 FREE plays and coming today with a complimentary selection on the Yankees as they take on the Astros in Houston.
Two teams going in opposite directions in this matchup as the Yankees have won eight of their last 11 while the Astros have dropped eight of 11.
And the one consistency this season for New York has been starter Chien-Ming Wang (7-2, 4.30 ERA). Wang is 4-0 on the road with a 2.38 ERA and on Tuesday he held the A’s to one run on seven hits in 3-1 road win.
The Yankees have won his last four starts and with Wang on the hill the Yankees are on runs of 20-6 on the road, 51-18 with him listed as a favorite, 40-15 overall and 8-1 when he toes the rubber on Sundays.
Houston has Roy Oswalt (5-6, 5.06) on the mound today and he has really struggled this season. The Astros have won just once in his last five starts and he is 1-5 as an underdog.
If you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are back over .500 and they’ve taken the first two games of this series. They are playing some good baseball, including getting some very good starting pitching.
Let’s play the Yankees in this one as Wang gets the job done for them again.
3* N.Y. YANKEES
J.R. MILLER
LAKERS -7.0
Celtics/Lakers OVER 190.5
JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY RELEASE MLB FOR SUNDAY
BALTIMORE-132
CHICAGO WHITE SOX-142
BOSTON-146
TEXAS+150
MINNESOTA+130
Jim Feist
KC Royals and ARI D'backs
Take Over
Arizona doesn't always hit on the road, but at home the offense is terrific, averaging 5.5 runs per game. That's not surprising as it's a good hitter's park. Kansas City comes to town and starter Gil Meche has been terrible, a 3-8 record with a 5.25 ERA. Arizona starter Micah Owings has also been struggling, at 0-3 his last 3 starts with a 9.22 ERA. In fact, Arizona is 3-0 over the total his last three starts. Look for plenty of runs in this indoor game, Play the Royals/Diamondbacks over the total!
Rocco Spacamuro
50* Portugal +127
LT Profits
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Under 8.5
The Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants combined to score six runs on Friday and four runs yesterday, and we feel that another low scoring game is in store today.
The Giants have scored just one run in their series, and we don’t expect the San Francisco offense to suddenly have a revival today. Oakland southpaw starter Dana Eveland has been very Under-friendly this season, with nine of his 13 starts staying below the total and another pushing. The highly regarded youngster has a nice 3.76 ERA overall and he has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts.
Now Kevin Correia is making his first start since April for the Giants, but this is not exactly a powerhouse Oakland lineup that he is making his return against. The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 Athletics road games, and while a lot of that has to do with some fine young pitching, another piece of the Under puzzle has been a weak lineup that is hitting just .235 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games.
Finally, the Under is 7-2 in Correia’s last nine home starts, as well as 35-17 in the last 52 head-to-meetings in the Bay Series.
Pick: Athletics, Giants Under 8.5
Atlanta Braves +130
The Atlanta Braves have had their struggles on the road, but you would not know it from the first two games of this series with the Los Angeles Angels and the Braves now look to complete the sweep at another nice price in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game.
Angels starter Joe Saunders was off to a fantastic start this season, but he has tailed off considerably in his recent starts with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his last three outings. He has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts, and he was lit up for eight earned runs and nine hits in just 4.2 innings in his last appearance on Monday.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is 4-1 in all games started by Jorge Campillo this year, as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his five starts. That has translated to a sparkling 2.15 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 46 innings. Now granted, the Braves bullpen has been a bit of an adventure lately, but that unit has performed well in this series and Atlanta does still rank seventh in the Major Leagues with a 3.33 pen ERA.
Considering the current form of the pitchers here, we see good value on Atlanta at this price as they go for their first road sweep of the season.
Pick: Braves +130
Wunderdog
Boston at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: First Half UNDER 95.5 -110
Boston gave up 58 in the first half in game four and it still nearly went UNDER. That won't happen again. Boston is 14-10 UNDER in the first half in the playoffs, allowing 43.6 ppg. The Lakers are averaging just 47.2 ppg in the first half the past five games, while holding opponents to 45. Boston is 17-5 UNDER in the first-half this season when in the underdog role as they come out focused in these games on what they do best - play defense. We also expect the Lakers to play intense defense to open the game. They are 21-9 UNDER in the first-half the past three seasons revenging a home upset loss.
BRAD DIAMOND
The Phillies were in negative form yesterday offensively "chasing" hurler Lohse low and inside for the most part. But, we can fully understand the down turn off a 20 run outing on Friday evening. On the board Sunday we find umpire Tim McClelland doing business behind home plate with a fantastic 18-4-2 OVER run in that role. The players in this set have captured the OVER in 6 of the last eight in the series. At St.Louis the two combatants have gone OVER in 5 of 6. RHP Boggs (1-0, 3.86)has looked solid in the early going, but experiences where limited time and scope. Realize too, Brett Meyers has a tendency to throw "Unders" on Sunday, but the facts and circumstances are much different today.
Ben Burns
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers
PICK: Los Angeles Lakers
REASON FOR PICK: While I was on the wrong side of the Lakers' Game 4 collapse, I expect them to bounce back with a massive effort for tonight's Game 5 clash. While many will likely view things differently, I believe that Thursday's "monumental meltdown" has actually worked in our favor here. For starters, it's caused the majority of the betting public to favor the Celtics, which has given us the lowest line on the Lakers for any of their three home games in this series.
Additionally, off one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history, I feel that an emotional letdown will be difficult to avoid for the Celtics. Although they would never admit this, probably not even to themselves, the Celtics figure to be feeling that they've already "accomplished their mission" by winning a game here at LA. They know that they're in great shape, even if they lose here - and wouldn't it be that much sweeter to win the series in front of the Boston fans?
Perhaps most importantly, the Lakers embarrassed themselves in the second half of Game 4. As Kobe put it: "we wet the bed..." They really don't want to go out on that note.
Odom had this to say: "We know who we represent—our franchise, our city. We damn sure don't want to lose here." Let's not forget that this team is still 15-1 its last 16 games on this floor. They're also 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 times they were attempting to avenge a home loss. Consider laying the points.
Carlo Campanella
Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants
Oakland finds themselves as slight road Favorites on Sunday as they head to San Francisco. The Giants have dropped 3 of their last 4 games and start Kevin Correia on the mound. We'll back teh A's in here as they're 6-1 during their last 6 trips to San Francisco and we find these Giants at 1-12 during their last 13 games against A.L. teams allowing 4.2 Runs per Game!
Play on: Oakland
Iron Horse
10* DRays
Drew Gordon
If there's one thing the Blue Jays don't do well, its hit lefties, especially at the Rogers Centre, where they bat just .223 against them, averaging a meager 3.7 runs per game in that spot! They're just 3-6 at home against southpaws this season, and a match up against the Cubs Ted Lilly doesn't bode well this afternoon.
Speaking of Lilly, he rebounded nicely from an ugly effort against the Rockies May 30th, pitching well in his last two, allowing 5 runs over his last 14 innings of work, fanning 16 in the process! In fact, if you take away his atrocious first 4 starts of the season, Lilly is 6-2 with a rock-solid 3.88 ERA on the year. Look for another strong effort this afternoon, and the fact Vernon Wells may be held out of this one after feeling some tightness in his hand, only helps the Cubbies in this one.
Opposing Lilly is the Jays Jesse Litsch, who adimittingly looked great from late-April to late-May, but has tailed off considerably in June, going 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. What's most concerning is the fact he's allowed 20 hits over his last 11 1/3 innings, and against an offense like the Cubs, that can get real ugly, real fast. Cubs offense hasn't exactly been on-point of late, but they're catching Litsch in the midst of some troubles, which makes the play here squarely on Chicago.
Finally, its important to note the Cubs are not only playing well, winners of 5 of their last 6 (as compared to the Jays, who've lost 7 of their last 10), but they've also had plenty of success over Lilly's last 8 starts, going 6-2 over that span! In the end, the Cubs take the series, capitalizing on the Jays inability to hit lefties, and Litsch sudden loss of focus.
Take the Chicago Cubs behind Lilly over Toronto and Litsch in afternoon MLB action
2* CHICAGO CUBS
Matt Rivers
CELTICS / LAKERS UNDER
Once again I'm feeling like being in a giving mood so I'll give you the low right here in game five for free. The way the Celtics are playing defense and the way the Lakers have improved defensively, I just do not see all of a sudden an explosion. Plus I don't see Eddie House and James Posey being able to shoot like they did in that last game and that contest stayed under even with that. I will reiterate right here what I said before that last game. Boston has played phenomenal defense all season long and really do not look to fast break all that much. Even if the Lakers want to run and gun things are made a tremendous amount tougher when the opponent is not only extremely capable on the defensive end but does not really try to score all too quickly. The halfcourt game is perfectly fine with Doc Rivers and his squad and even on the road should be able to control most of the pace. Kevin Garnett was the defensive player of the year and all in all the C's may have been the best defensive team this season. Let's not forget about all of the garbage time Boston was involved in this campaign because they led so many games by so many points. That has skewed the stats a bit out of their favor not making people understand just how dominant defensively they have been. Kobe is a beast and the greatest player on the planet who could put up 40 against anybody. Shoot the guy scored 80 against the Raptors, I think, in one game a season ago. But a total around the 190's means that we should have a team hit the century mark and that is just asking too much. We may see a few more points today than that 87-81 LA win in Game three as that was tremendously under but in the end I do not see both teams getting above 90.