SPORTS ADVISORS
L.A. Angels (45-30) at Philadelphia (42-34)
The Angels look to complete a three-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park when they send Jered Weaver (6-7, 4.73 ERA) to the mound to face Phillies ace Cole Hamels (7-4, 3.23) in this series finale between first-place clubs.
Los Angeles pounded out an 7-1 win on Friday, then broke open a 2-2 tie late on Saturday en route to a 6-2 victory. The Angels are 4-2 in their last six overall, and they’re on additional streaks of 22-9 in interleague action, 6-1 in interleague road games, 14-3 against left-handed starters and 8-2 against winning teams.
Philadelphia has dropped four straight overall and six of its last seven. Also, Charlie Manuel’s club is 1-6 in interleague play, 6-20 in its last 26 against winning A.L. teams and 9-24 against A.L. right-handers.
This is the first series between these two since 2003, and the Angels have now taken the last four in a row against the Phils.
Weaver gave up six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-6 home loss to the Mets on Monday. He’s allowed four or more runs in three of his last four outings. Also, the right-hander, who has never faced the Phillies, is 3-3 with a 5.98 ERA in seven road starts in 2008.
Hamels has been on a roll lately, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 5-3 with a 2.73 ERA in front of the home fans. That includes Monday’s 8-2 rout of the Red Sox, as he held the defending champs to two runs on seven hits over seven innings as the Phillies won for the 10th time in Hamels’ 15 outings this season.
The Angels are 5-2 in Weaver’s last seven starts, but Philadelphia dominates when Hamels pitches, going 36-17 in his last 53 overall, 20-7 in his last 27 at home, 5-1 in his last six on Sundays and 8-0 in Hamels’ last eight when pitching in the third game of a series.
The over is 6-1 in Weaver’s last seven starts as an underdog, but the under is 7-3-1 in his last 11 Sunday outings. With Hamels pitching, the over streaks are 5-2 at home, 4-0 in interleague starts and 5-2 when he faces a team with a winning record.
The first two games of this series have stayed under the total, and the Angels are now on under runs of 39-16-5 overall, 42-20-5 against southpaws, 11-4-2 as a road underdog, 16-5-2 on the road overall, 7-1-1 on the road against lefties and 10-3-1 against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Phillies are on under streaks of 14-4 overall, 8-0 against the A.L. West, 7-2 at home, 11-4 as a favorite and 9-4 against right-handed starters. However, the over is 11-4 in Philly’s last 15 interleague games and 6-2 in its last eight versus A.L. right-handers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER
Chicago White Sox (41-33) at Chicago Cubs (47-28)
The Cubs look to finish off a three-game sweep of their crosstrown rivals and make it six in a row over the White Sox when they send Ryan Dempster (8-2, 2,76 ERA) to the mound to face Javier Vazquez (7-5, 4.12) at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs scored an 11-7 victory on Saturday thanks to a nine-run fourth inning, a day after getting a 4-3 walk-off win. The Cubs have won the last five series clashes and seven of the last eight dating back to last season.
Wrigley Field has been good to the Cubs, who are 40-13 in their last 53 in front of the faithful (31-8 this season). Lou Piniella’s club is also on runs of 18-7 overall, 7-2 in interleague home games, 8-1 against the A.L. Central and 41-19 at Wrigley against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile the White Sox are 11-7 in their last 18 overall and 7-4 in their last 11 in interleague play, but they have lost eight straight games on the highway.
Vazquez is 2-1 in his last three outings but his ERA is a whopping 7.27 as he’s given up 14 earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings. In eight outings on the highway this year, the right-hander is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA, and the last time he pitched on the road he gave up five runs on 10 hits in six innings of a 5-1 loss in Detroit.
Vazquez is 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA in 14 career starts against the Cubs. He faced them twice last season, giving up a combined six runs on 10 hits in 14 innings but the White Sox lost both, 11-6 at Wrigley and 2-1 at home.
The Cubs have won 11 of Dempster’s 15 starts this season and he’s an amazing 8-0 at Wrigley with a 2.93 ERA. He threw a complete game against the Braves in his last home outing, giving up two runs on four hits and striking out 11 in a 7-2 win.
With Dempster on the hill, the Cubs are on streaks of 10-1 at home, 9-0 when he’s a home favorite and 4-0 when he pitches at home against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 6-2 in Vazquez’s last eight starts and 14-5 in his last 19 when going on four days’ of rest, but they are just 2-10 when he pitches on Sunday, 1-4 in interleague starts and 0-4 as a road ‘dog.
With Vazquez on the hill for the White Sox, the over is on streaks of 14-5 overall, 6-2 in interleague starts, 5-1-1 on Sundays and 6-1 against the N.L. Central, but the under is 13-6 in his last 19 when he pitches as an underdog. For Dempster, the under is on runs of 4-0 at home, 6-1 overall and 5-0 as a favorite.
For the White Sox, the under trends include 41-18 as an underdog, 20-8 as a road ‘dog, 21-9 on the road, 11-3 against teams with a winning record and 16-6 on the road against right-handed pitching, but the over is 7-2 in their last nine as an interleague ‘dog. The “under” runs for the Cubs include 10-5-1 in interleague games, 5-2 at Wrigley, 7-2 against right-handed starters and 4-1 against the A.L. Central.
Finally, the over is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head matchups at Wrigley, but the teams had stayed under the total in four straight meetings overall before Saturday’s game flew over posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER
Brian Gabrielle
Toyota SaveMart 350: Right-Hand Turns
Last Week: Stupid fuel-mileage race. We had Matt Kenseth at +1000 for last week's race at Michigan, and by the end of the day, Kenseth clearly had the best car. However, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne were able to finish a green-white-checkers caution lap running on fumes, and thus finished one-two, while the rest of the field had needed to stop for fuel. It was bad, bad luck. I supposed we've had our share of good luck this season, but considering we also had Kyle Busch beating Kahne in our head-to-head pick, that qualifies as a true kick in the butt. So let's call it even, shall we, gambling gods? For the week, we lost 1.5 units; for the season, we've profited 4.7 units on 21.5 units wagered, a return of 21.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 12 of 15 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost four units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 10.74 units on 59 units wagered, a return of 18.2%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Tony Stewart (+450), 1/6th unit. This weekend, the Smokeless Set heads to the road course at Sonoma, where the drivers will make right-hand turns and try not to spin around hairpins, or leave the ground while rumbling down hills. Stewart is one of the current unquestioned kings of the roadies, having won six times in 18 career road-course events in Sprint Cup, including twice at Sonoma. Now, Smoke is definitely better-suited to winning at the series' other road course, in Watkins Glen. But last year, he led the most laps in this race and was positioned to post a third Sonoma win when five cars were able to make it to the finish without an extra pit stop. (Fuel mileage! Why must you vex us!?!) Anyway, I'll take Smoke to win Sunday.
Take Jeff Gordon (+450), 1/6th unit. Gordon is the other NASCAR superstar who's also an unbelievably good road-course driver. He's won five times at this track in 15 starts, and has finished in the top 10 on 11 occasions. He's also won four times at Watkins Glen. Stewart and Gordon are clear favorites when the stock cars turn right, and I'll take each of them.
Take Robby Gordon (+1000), 1/6th unit. The other Gordon has wins at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen, but is also a perennial tease at these road courses. He's perhaps the most accomplished regular NASCAR driver on road courses, and always looks like he's got a chance to win, but something always seems to happen to him, especially at Sonoma. It's been five years since his win here, and in that four-race span, he's finished 16th twice, 34th and 40th. Nevertheless, I'm buying the hype again. Robby Gordon Motorsports essentially exists to compete on two weekends a year. And this is one of them.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Philadelphia w/Hamels
The Phillies wrap up the three games series with the Angels when they send Cole Hamels up against Jered Weaver in Philadelphia this afternoon. Both pitchers love hurling at home this season where Hamel's 2.73 ERA shines against his 4.95 ERA on the road, while Weaver's 5.08 ERA away from home is in direct correlation to his 3.73 ERA in Los Angeles. With Hamels 14-5 in his last 19 home starts and 4-0 in his day starts this season, look for the Phillies to improve to 14-5 at home on Sundays here today.
BRAD DIAMOND
Play on: Milwaukee (Parra) over Baltimore
Doubt hot Orioles can support fading lefty Olsen (5-2, 4.80) with enough runs on Sunday for a road and Inter-League (9-2) win. Milwaukee counters with another port side staff member, Manny Parra (6-2, 4.22), who is 4-0 (2.49) since May 25th. In addition, the Brew Crew is 6-0 in game #3 of a series, 52-22 versus LHP and 7-1 versus a team with a positive overall record. Brewers bounce-back on Sunday.
Dave Cokin
White Sox @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -145
Most everything has been coming up roses for the Cubs this season, and perhaps the most amazing story of their campaign to date has been Ryan Dempster. There's no way anyone could have envisioned Dempster pitching at this level as he returned to a starting role after closing games for the Cubs the last three years. Dempster has been impossible to beat at Wrigley, where he's 8-0, and with Javier Vazquez not especially sharp of late for the White Sox, it looks time to get out the brooms as the Cubbies score the weekend sweep.
Rocketman Sports
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Play On: 1* Chicago Cubs -130
Chicago Cubs are 12-3 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Chicago Cubs are 30-8 at home this season. White Sox are scoring only 4 runs per game on the road this year. Cubs are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall and 6.4 runs per game at home this season. Cubs bullpen has a 3.42 ERA overall this year and a 3.15 ERA at home this season. Vazquez has a 7.27 ERA his last 3 starts. Dempster is 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA overall this year, 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA at home this season and 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!
Jimmy The Moose
Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies send lefty Hamels to the mound who is on fire of late with a era of 1.5 in his last 3 starts(2-0) and is 7-4 on the year. Only thing not going right for the Angels thus far on the season is Weaver who is 6-7 on the year with a lofty ERA of nearly 5. Play on Philadelphia -.
Robert Ross
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reynolds has been solid in two of his last three starts and has a 4.94 ERA at home. Pelfrey's road ERA is 7.62. A 68.5% winning angle over the last 10 seasons (135-62) says to Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season (NL). Take Colorado!
Big Al Mcmordie
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
At 8:05pm our member selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Chicago White Sox. It's the southside vs. the northside of the windy city in this Nationally televised Sunday night game from Wrigley Field. The Cubs just got a bit of bad news as their ace Carlos Zambrano was not able to avoid the DL with his strained shoulder and he will now be unavailable until at least early July and will probably miss two starts at the minimum. But the good news is that the injury does not appear serious and the Cubs have gotten some great pitching performances from some unlikely sources, one of which is tonight's starter, 31 year-old righthander and reliever turned starter Ryan Dempster. Dempster has been sensational this season and is a big part of the success of the Cubs, who are enjoying their best season in many years and have the best record in the Majors. As good as they've been, they're even more devastating at home, where their record is a remarkable 31-8. With their win over their cross-town rivals on Saturday night, the Cubs have now gone 8-1 in their last nine meetings with the Sox. White Sox ace and tonight's starter Javier Vazquez has struggled in his last three starts, giving up 14 earned runs in only 17 1/3 innings. Take the Cubs.
Terron Chapman
LAA Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: LAA Angels
The Philadelphia Phillies will need to find a way to keep Vladamir Guerrero off the bases Sunday afternoon if they want to avoid a weekend sweep. Guerrero has owned the Phillies in his career. He has 31 homers and 84 RBI's against the Phillies. He hit two last night to make it three against them this weekend and bring his hitting streak to 12 games hitting .458 in the process.
Cole Hamels will get the responsibility of trying to slow down Guerrero and the Halo's. The young lefty has never faced the Angels and could have his struggles against an Angels team that is hitting .283 the last 10 games against lefties and are 14-4 against southpaws on the season. The Halo's are certainly capable of a sweep this afternoon on the road, where they are 22-12 on the season and an impressive 12-6 in day games.
Jared Weaver will toe the rubber for the Angels off a rough outing. But I like him today in a bounce back situation on the road as opposed to the pressure of being at home. He'll have nothing to lose today with the series being clinched, enabling him the mindset to just go out and pitch. He might be catching the Phillies at the right time as well as they are struggling at the plate. The Phillies are hitting .246 the last 10 games and have lost four straight. Weaver has been solid in day games like his team going 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA allowing only one home run under the sunshine.
The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 interleague games against a team with winning record. They are 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 as a pup. The Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 with the chalk. Play on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for 1 unit.
Ross Benjamin
Florida (Miller) @ Oakland (Duchsherer)
Pick: Under 8.0 (+100)
The Oakland starting pitcher Justin Duchsherer has been lights out at home this season posting a 1.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. In his last 5 starts overall he has posted a brilliant 1.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Oakland is hitting just .243 as a team versus left-handed pitching this season. After an extremely slow start to the season the Marlins starter Andrew Miller has posted a very good 2.77 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his last 9 starts. Miller is starting to resemble the pitcher the Marlins coveted so much when they traded both Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in the offseason to Detroit to obtain the young southpaw. Going into Saturday night the Marlins were hitting a soft .227 as a team over the last 10 games. Oakland has gone over the total just 4 of their last 12 games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Play on under.
LUCKY LEPRECHAUN SPORTS
Tampa Bay/ Houston Under 8.5
The 14-2 in Backes last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 11-2 in his last 13 starts as a road underdog, while the Under 13-3 in Rays last 16 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record and 13-3-1 in Kazmirs last 17 starts on field turf. Scott Kazmir has been awesome at home, posting an 0.59 ERA, with a 0.91 WHIP. His home games this year have averaged just 5.2 rpg, while his starts overall have averaged just 7 rpg. Brandon Backe struggles on the road posting a 5.81 ERA, but those games have averaged just 7.2 rpg. Houston Scores just 2.4 rpg for him in his road starts and 2.5 rpg for him in his day starts. Houston scores just 4 rpg on the road this year and come in having scored just 2.9 rpg in their last 8 games overall. The Rays have had their own problems scoring as they average just 4.4 rpg at home and 4.3 rpg in day games. Tampa's home games have averaged just 7.7 rpg, while their day games have averaged 8.1 rpg. Neither team has been scoring much lately so look for the pitching to take over and keep the score down. I'd say about 5 or 6 runs in this one.
Mike Anthony
Florida Marlins vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
How under-rated are the Athletics? This is a team that has a better record than the Yankees! This is a team that is in serious playoff contention. Each and every year this team finds a way to compete and win. It is no longer a secret how they do it. Billy Beane makes smart baseball moves and brings in hungry players. On top of those two things Billy brings in quality young arms. Today we see another one. Justin Duchscherer is a top arm. He is a top arm in this organization and the Athletics hope to lock him up long term as he progresses further. He has a devastating curveball and will shutdown the Fish this afternoon after they got a lucky win on Saturday Night.
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels +160 at PHILADELPHIA
Interleague play just doesn't agree with the Phillies. They have lost four straight interleague games and six of their last seven. They are 6-20 against American League teams and 9-24 against American League right-handers.
That's why we're playing the Angels in this one. Jered Weaver (6-7, 4.73 ERA) is on the hill for Los Angeles after the Angels have taken the first two in this series, including 7-1 on Friday and 6-2 on Saturday. They are 22-9 in interleague action, 6-1 in interleague road games, 14-3 against southpaws and 8-2 against winning teams.
Weaver was outstanding last season but this year he is just 3-3 on the road with a 5.98 ERA. Even with his struggles, the Angels are 5-2 in his last seven starts.
Lefty Cole Hamels (7-4, 3.23) is on the mound for the Phillies. He's been tough lately but the Philadelphia offense hasn't been reliable at all. Their bats have been virtually silence in interleague play and we gotta believe Weaver has the talent to silence them again today.
Let's grab a lot of plus-money in this one and play the Angels. They've won the first two and they'll make it a sweep today.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS
JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY RELEASE MLB SUNDAY
DETROIT-125