Scott Spreitzer's 25* Interleague BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT!
25* Brewers
SAPKOWSKI
Premium
ATL Braves 1.5
TB Rays 1.5
Free picks
TEX Rangers
DET Tigers
Tips:
For Euro 2008 play Spain(as Draw no bet)
SEABASS
CINN10*
ST.L 10*
Tx 20*
PHIL 20*
Tor 50*
Robert Ferringo
3 -Unit Play. Take New York Yankees (-1.5, -110) over Cincinnati
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Cincinnati at New York Yankees
4.5-Unit Play. Take Boston (-1.5, -110) over St. Louis
2-Take ‘Over’ 9.5 (+100) St. Louis at Boston
Note: This is our Runline of the Week.
The first thing you have to do when playing a run line is find a team that you think will win. Once that happens, teams that win have about a 78 percent chance of winning by more than one run if they do, in fact, claim victory. In its last 80 series Boston has only been swept one time, and we're playing against a National League sweep and a N.L. ROAD sweep with this one. John Lester has been exceptional in Fenway and I think the Sox feel a little urgency in front of The Nation. They are 48-14 in 52 interleauge games and have been one of the best home teams in the league this year. They will find a way to win - mainly by beating up on the St. Louis bullpen - and we'll collect on both sides here.
2-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-145) over Baltimore
2-Unit Play. Take Oakland (-160) over Florida
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Florida at Oakland
1.5-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5, +125) over Los Angeles Angels
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia
King Creole
Today's Pick: Giants/Royals UNDER
Tonight's home plate Umpire in Kansas City is old friend CHUCK MERIWEATHER. His 'UNDER" numbers for the 2008 season are extremely strong. Try this on for size: 4-11 O/U so far this year. And only 7.5 runs per game are being scored. He's also on a current streak in which EACH of his last FOUR games have gone UNDER (0-4 O/U / 6.7 RPG). Throughout his career, his numbers in NL ballparks are nothing special. But in AL ballparks, the numbers are extremely one-sided. Like 5-13-1 O/U in the last 2 years... and an impressive 8-25-3 O/U in the last three years. We also note that his is a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in KC Royal games and 0-1 O/U in Gil Meche starts.
The SF Giants are 1-6-1 O/U as Interleague DOGS of +130 or higher.... 0-4 O/U in Game Two of a series... 0-4 O/U after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game... and are a solid 67% UNDER the TOTAL on Saturdays over the last 2+ seasons (23-48-2 O/U).
The KC Royals are on a current 17-40-2 O/U in their last 59 home games... 4-10 O/U after allowing 5+ runs in their previous game... 2-6 O/U when Gil Meche is on 5 days rest... and 2-6 O/U in Gil Meche Game TWO starts Take the UNDER.
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB (backed by a 71.4 percent go-against trend!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Brewers at 2:05 ET. The Orioles are having a solid season in '08, as last night's 3-2 loss leaves them at 38-35, a major improvement from their 2007 record of 69-93. However, the Orioles are still not to be trusted on the road (16-23 this year), especially considering the fact that they went 64-98 the last two seasons away from Camden Yards. In this "rubber game" of this three-game series at Milwaukee, the Orioles will be hard-pressed to come away with a win. Milwaukee's win on Saturday makes them 24-13 at home this year and let's not forget that the Brewers were 99-63 (plus-$1,950) the last two seasons at home ('06 and '07). The starting pitching matchup also gives Milwaukee a solid advantage today, as well. Two left-handers square off, Olson for the Orioles and Parra for the Brewers. Olson got off to a solid start in '08, going 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his first eight starts (team was 5-3) but in his last two starts, he's really been 'roughed up,' allowing 13 hits and 10 ERs over 10 innings (9.00 ERA). Breaking his numbers down home and away and we find that he's 3-0 with 3.50 ERA at home (team is 4-1) and 2-2 with a 6.24 ERA on the road (team is 2-3). He'll face a Milwaukee team which is 13-8 vs left-handers in '08, including 6-1 in day games. Parra, like so many of Milwaukee's pitchers, has been excellent at home, while struggling on the road. He's had a pretty solid season overall, going 6-2 with a 4.22 ERA in 14 starts 099-5) but his home and away breakdowns are significant. He's 2-2 with a 7.25 ERA in six road starts (team is 3-3) but 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA in eight home starts (team is 6-2). He'll really like the fact that the Orioles have struggled against lefties this year, going 7-11 (2-6 on the road). If you think that's not enough of a sample size, try this. Over the last two seasons combined (that's '06 and '07), the Orioles went 35-60 vs lefties, including a rather pathetic 14-34 on the road! so since the beginning of the '06 season, Baltimore has gone just 16-40 against lefties on the road, or a winning percentage of only 28.6 percent! Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Mil Brewers.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (85.7 percent trend inside!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 4:10 ET. What's going on here? The Indians have struggled at the plate all season (are hitting an AL-low .245) and entered this weekend series at Dodger Stadium having been swept (0-6) in both of their interleague road series this year (May 16-18 at Cincy and earlier this week at Coors Field). That wasn't exactly something new, as Cleveland had lost 16 of 24 interleague road games before this series, going back to June of 2005. However, the Indians have won consecutive extra-inning games, 6-4 (10) on Friday and 7-2 (11) on Saturday. Now while I realize that the back-to-back losses drop the Dodgers to just 1-7 in interleague play in '08, I MUST back them this afternoon, considering the pitching matchup. Paul Byrd goes for the Indians and he comes in having allowed five ERs or more in FOUR of his last six starts (30.1 IP / 43 hits / 26 ERs / 7.71 ERA). His road record in '08 has been nothing short of DREADFUL, allowing 54 hits and 37 ERs over 41.1 innings of eight starts, for an ERA of 7.19 (he's 1-6 and the team is 1-7!). Adding insult to injury, he's 0-4 with a 3.82 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers (his teams are 1-4) and that DOESN'T include his 10.38 ERA against them in six relief appearances (ouch!). OK, the Dodgers have their problems as well but there can't be much criticism of the way Chad Billingsley has pitched as of late. He opened the '08 season with two relief appearances and then went 0-4 with a 6.87 ERa in his first four starts. However, in the last two of those four losses, he had 21 Ks in just 11 innings. The team felt he was "on the verge" and the Dodgers were right. Over his next seven starts, Billingsley allowed two ERs or less six times, posting a 1.80 ERA. He did run into some tough going in back-to-back starts on June 6 and 11 (12 IP / 15 hits / 8 ERs / 6.00 ERA) but he was strong in his last outing (Tues at Cincy), winning 3-1 (6.1 IP / 5 hits / 1 ER)/. Doing the math, Billingsley has posted a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts. The Indians win yesterday afternoon, was just the team's SECOND in 12 day games this year, with the Indians averaging a woeful 2.67 RPG. Going against the Tribe in day games this year, makes you 12-2 or 85.7 percent! Las Vegas Insider on the LA Dodgers.
Scott Spreitzer's IL KNOCKOUT MISMATCH GAME OF THE WEEK!
I'm laying the price with the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Brandon Webb of Arizona is the frontrunner for the Cy Young in the National League. He'd be getting even more respect if people adjusted for his home field! Webb has to pitch his home games in a great hitter's park. His road ERA is 2.68, with a sparkling WHIP of 1.07. Webb will be on the road today in Minnesota. Livan Hernandez is pitching for the Twins. His ERA is a horrible 8.91 in his last six outings. He's basically been throwing batting practice. It's a mismatch on the mound. Arizona is better in my favorite offensive stat as well. They've got an on-base percentage of .327 this year with their pitchers batting, while Minnesota is at .326 in the DH league! Arizona will get to use a DH today, expanding their edge. I've been avoiding Arizona when the back end of their rotation is throwing. In fact, I used Minnesota on these pages on Saturday. But with Webb, Arizona will be in position to post a blowout victory Sunday afternoon. The Diamondbacks minus the price is the play.
VEGAS RUNNER
ATL -1.5 (+115) vs SEA 1* RL WAGER
TAM -1.5 (+100) vs HOU 1* RL WAGER
TEX (-111) vs WAS 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
MIL (-145) vs BAL 1* ML WAGER
SFG (-124) vs KAN 2* ML WAGER
FLA (+147) vs OAK 2* ML WAGER
KAN / SFG Over 8 1* TOTAL
SDP / DET Under 8 1* TOTAL
WNBA for SUNDAY
OVER 172.5 PHO/NY (1*)
CHICAGO SKY +6 (1*)
UNDER 145 IND/LA (1*)
NASCAR for SUNDAY
JEFF GORDON +350 (1*)
TONY STEWART +1000 (1*)
LVTR Power Play
Milwaukee
LT Profits
MLB
2* Angels vs Phillies UNDER 9.0
2* Rangers vs Nationals UNDER 8.5
2* Marlins (+150) vs Athletics
Ben Burns
MLB
3* Blue Jays (-117) vs Pirates
5* Top Phillies (-170) vs Angels
3* Diamondbacks (-143) vs Twins
VicMonte 500* Syndicate
Tigers
Paul Leiner
50* Giants -115
20* Rockies -115
10* Blue Jays -115
Mike Rose
MLB
2* Astros (+195) vs TB Rays
3* Diamondbacks vs Twins OVER 8.5
2* Indians vs Dodgers UNDER 8.5
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Milwaukee w/Parra -138