Matt Fargo
St Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Play:St Louis Cardinals
St. Louis broke through with a victory last night which snapped a three-game skid including two walk-off wins for the Tigers. St. Louis has been successful on the road this season and since mid-May, the Cardinals are 14-9 in their last 23 road games and they have won six of seven series over that span. The pitching has been solid, posting a 3.99 ERA through 42 games which is second best in the National League. The offense is hitting .272 which is tops in the league and tied with Boston for best in baseball.
The Royals had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday and now it is time to begin a new streak. It has been a very streaky season for Kansas City who had been 11-1 over its previous 12 games but before that was 5-20 in its prior 25 games. Somehow the pitching has come to life, allowing three runs or fewer in 10 of its last 14 games. The offense was held to fewer than four runs last night for the first time in nine games and we will continue to see that again today against a solid starter.
Braden Looper gets the call for St. Louis and he has hit one of his best stretches of the season. He had tossed three straight quality starts before allowing four runs in Detroit last time out. His ERA is 2.67 over those five games and his record sits at 3-1 only due to poor run support in the lone loss. Looper has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts and he has actually had a much better season on the road where he is 5-2 and his ERA is 3.91 compared to 4.50 at home.
Brian Bannister has tossed two straight quality outings so this is where we want to go against him as he falls into the category of a lower tiered starter going for a third straight quality outing. It has been a season of inconsistencies for Bannister and it was a rough end of May and start into June. Over a six-game stretch, he had an ERA of 6.82 with the Royals going 2-4 in those games. In his last outing, he allowed only three hits but walked six and that will be something to keep an eye on. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
Tom Freese
Boston at Houston
Boston is 8-0 their last 8 games when playing Game 3 of a series and they are 43-9 their last 52 Interleague games vs. righty starters. The Red Sox are 8-1 off a loss and they are 7-0 the last 7 starts made by Josh Beckett on the road vs. losing teams and they are are 10-2 in the last 12 Interleague starts made by Beckett. Houston is 21-49 their last 70 Interleague games as underdogs and they are 8-20 their last 28 games overall. The Astros are 1-8 off a win and they are 1-4 with Brian Moehler on the mound as an underdog.
PLAY ON BOSTON
Scott Ferrall
St.Louis (even odds) over Kansas City--Looper has been rock solid almost every start. I hit the Cards Saturday and stopped the Royals hot streak-don't forget
SAN DIEGO -145 over Seattle--Peavy handles the soft Mariners and not so tough Eric Bedard
San Fran +120 over Oakland--Dirty Sanchez helps the Giants finally get one at the Coliseum. Blanton has no luck either. The A's just don't win when he's pitching
PHILLY -120 over Texas--Philly finally got back on track Saturday and Moyer gets them another win here
Dodgers +110 over Angels--Lowe needs this one against Lackey. He's been average at best this year, but looks good at the Revine Sunday. Everyone will be pouncing on Lackey as the favorite, but he's not lasting deep in to this one because the Dodgers will have the bats clicking to end the series on a bright note
LUCKY LEPRECHAUN SPORTS
Arizona/ FLORIDA Under 8
The 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games as a road favorite and 8-3 in Harens last 11 starts overall, while the Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 games as a home underdog and 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Florida. Both teams are playing putrid offense right now as the D-Backs come in having scored just 2.3 rpg in the ir last 9 games, while the Marlins have averaged the same 2.3 rpg in thier last 6 games.For the year the D-Backs score just 3.7 rpg on the road, while hitting .214 in the process, plus they score just 4.5 rpg in day games, while hitting just .237 in those day games. Arizona's road games have averaged 7.8 rpg, while their last 9 overall have averaged just 6.2 rpg. The Marlins score just 4.3 rpg at home, while hitting .239 and just 4.4 rpg in day games, while hitting just .243. Danny Haren will take the mound for Arizona and he has been rolling lately posting a 1.58 ERA in his last 5 starts, iincluding a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 starts, allowing a .203 OBP and a sizzling 0.65 WHIP. Danny has a 3.89 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging just 7 rpg, while he has a nice 1.97 ERA in day games, with those games averaging just 7.6 rpg. Scott Olsen has a solid 3.44 ERA overall, a 3.46 ERA in day games and a 2.86 ERA at home, while allowing a .292 OBP in his home starts. This game features two solid starters and two struggling offenses and that will lead to a low scoring affair in the Sunshine State.
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia will be able to get the job done here today in Texas. The Phillies flat out crush right-handed pitching. The Phillies have not been playing well over the last few weeks but that all changed last night against the worst defensive team in the majors. See this is a team that gets it going and doesn’t stop. They are one of the few teams in baseball that can put up a dozen runs in a game.
The problem for Eric Hurley today is those left-handed batters. You begin with one of the best players in baseball. Jimmy Rollins is a tough out. He is finally getting in to a groove. After you see him you have to see the likes of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley whom are both lefties. Both of those players hit a long ball last night.
The Rangers can hit, we don’t argue with you there but look at Jamie Moyer. Is their a guy with more guts than this guy? Is there anyone that can match his craftiness? PHILS WIN BIG$$$$$$$$
JB's COMPUTER PICKS
Detroit Tigers -170 * * *
Milwaukee Brewers -135
Los Angeles Angels -125
Best Bet * * *
Drew Gordon
NY Yankees at NY METS -110
Despite both starters being unimpressive of late, there's no question you have to be fading the struggling Darrell Rasner in this one. He's 1-2 with a ugly 9.88 ERA over his last 3 starts, and that includes two meltdowns on the road - at Oakland (6 runs in 3 2/3 innings) and at Pittsburgh (7 runs in 5 innings)! Say what you will about his success at Yankee Stadium, but Rasner is nothing more than a liability on the road.
Opposing Rasner is the Mets Oliver Perez, who's coming off back-to-back disappointing starts. However, there's a big differences with Perez... He almost always brings his "A" game against the Bombers, going 4-1 with a 2.88 ERA in 5 career starts against them! That includes a nice win May 18th, allowing 2 runs over 7 2/3 innings, at Yankee Stadium no less! Look for Perez to bounce back nicely in this one.
Finally, if there's one match up the Yankees powerhouse offense doesn't like, its facing a lefty on the road, where they average 4.5 runs per game. Still seems like plenty of offense, but fact is Cabrera, Damon, and Abreu are all struggling to hit southpaws right now, and with Oliver "Yankee-Killer" Perez due up this afternoon, the Mets can and will avoid the sweep in this one.
Take the NY Mets behind Perez over the NY Yankees and Rasner in afternoon MLB action.
2♦ NY METS
Chris Jordan
Milwaukee -145 at MINNESOTA
There are only a few pitchers I’d consider going against a team that recently reeled off 10 straight wins, but Ben Sheets is certainly one of them this season. In 15 starts this year he’s 9-1 with a 2.59 ERA and since he hasn’t lost since May 15, I don’t have any reason to believe things will change in this contest. He’s 3-0 in the month of June, spanning four starts, as he’s given up a mere seven earned runs over 28 innings – producing a solid 2.25 ERA.
He comes in after tossing his National League-leading third complete game of the season, against the Braves last Monday, when he allowed four hits, struck out seven and retired the last 16 batters he faced. The power right-hander has now won five straight decisions and has pitched at least six innings in 10 consecutive starts, and in 13 of 15 starts this season. He’s been rock solid on the highway this year, posting a 6-0 mark in 10 road starts, to go along with a 2.41 ERA.
All due respect to Kevin Slowey, who has been dynamic for the Twins this month, but it’s hard to ignore the fact he was 0-4 with a 5.49 ERA in his first four starts. He beat this team earlier this month, so expect the Brewers to come out firing against the right-hander in the Homer Domer.
4♦ BREWERS
Brian Gabrielle
Lenox Industrial Tools 301: Flat Tracks Break Skeins
Last Week: Brutal. We were looking really good for a double-win behind the road-course-savvy hands of Tony Stewart. Smoke had just jumped into second place at Sonoma with about 20 laps to go when a few knuckleheads behind him decided to make trouble, wrecking themselves and spinning out Stewart in the process. The No. 20 could only get back to 10th place, which wasn't enough to give him a win in our head-to-head match against Juan Pablo Montoya. And that bad luck puts us on our first three-race losing streak of the season. For the week, we lost 1.5 units; for the season, we've still profited 3.2 units on 23 units wagered, a return of 13.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 12 of 16 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost four units; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 6.74 units on 63 units wagered, a return of 10.7%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Denny Hamlin (+700), 1/6th unit. This weekend, we head to the flat track at Loudon. Now, Hamlin gives you a shot at a win every time he comes to a flat track. He won at Martinsville this season, he was third at Phoenix (with a legit chance to win that race) and he led 380 laps at Richmond before blowing a tire from the lead. Hamlin also has a career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, in this race last season. Something does always seem to happen to him while he's leading races late, but still, he's a very solid bet to be in contention on Sunday.
Take Kyle Busch (+500), 1/6th unit. There's no sense betting against this particular winning streak any longer. The younger Busch has five wins in not quite half a season, and it was pretty much unthinkable that he'd dominate a road course like he did at Sonoma last weekend. He's just absolutely on fire. Plus in his career he has four finishes of 11th or better at Loudon in six tries, including a victory back in the spring of '06. Think of this as insurance against yet another dominant effort by the Shrub.
Take Clint Bowyer (+1500), 1/6th unit. Bowyer has been the most consistent driver on flat tracks this year. He finished 10th at Martinsville, second at Phoenix, and he was able to pick up the scraps from Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800) at Richmond, and take his second career win. Plus remember: his first career win came at this very track last September, when he dominated in the Car of Tomorrow, leading 222 laps, and momentarily taking the lead in the Chase for the Championship. This week, I'd scoop him up while his odds are this long.
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THERE ARE TWO GAMES TODAY
Game #1
Detroit Tigers-1.5 (+120)
Game #2
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+107)
SportsKingz
Detroit -175
Tampa Bay -155
Angels -135
Philly -125
LT Profits
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Under 8.5
Jeremy Guthrie of the Baltimore Orioles has pitched in hard luck for two years now while Jason Bergmann looks to have regained his great form, so look for a low scoring game here.
Guthrie received the lowest run support in the league last season, and this year has not been that much different so far. He has a nice 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 108.2 innings, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his last 16 starts, and yet Guthrie is just 4-7. Then again, a continued lack of run support would suit the Under just fine here. He certainly should be able to hold his form vs. this weak Washington offense.
As for Bergmann, remember that he had a three-start stretch last month where he tossed 19.2 scoreless innings, and after regressing a bit in his next three outings, he has now allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings in his last two outings. This will also be his firrt career start vs. Baltimore, which should help his cause.
Finally, the Under is 14-6-1 in the last 21 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and we see no reason that will not continue today given this pitching matchup.
Pick: Orioles, Nationals Under 8.5
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox Under 9.0
The Chicago Cubs and Chicago White So wrap up interleague play for 2008 when they conclude their Windy City Series in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game tonight.
Mark Buehrle is now in peak form right now for the White Sox, as he has reeled of seven Quality Starts in his last eight outings, allowing exactly one run in five of those starts including three of his last four appearances. He was also a perfect two for two in Quality Starts vs. the Cubs last season, when he was not nearly as sharp as he is now.
Now Sean Marshall is making just his second start of the season for the Cubs, but he tossed probably the game of his life vs. these White Sox right here in this stadium last season, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings while allowing just five hits. The southpaw is facing a White Sox lineup that is hitting only .234 vs. left-handed pitching at home this season, as opposed to .292 vs. righties here.
Finally, the White Sox lead the American League with a 2.72 bullpen ERA while the Cubs rank fourth in the National League with a 3.45 pen ERA, which should limit late tack-on runs.
Pick: Cubs, White Sox Under 9
Tony Karpinski
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota Twins
Tough loss for the Twins last night. They got down 5-0 early in this game and just couldn’t rally. They had just three hits last night and scored just one run. Livan Hernandez did not give the start that this team needed. The Twins will bounce back at home today. This is still a team that is seven games over .500 for the season. Even better they are nine games over .500 at home.
We know that Ben Sheets is on the mound for the Brewers. He has been real solid all year but let’s not sleep on Kevin Slowey. The Twins are 3-0 in Kevin’s last three starts. How about a 1.35 ERA and just a .90 WHIP? Kevin makes the team work and very rarely issues free passes.
The Twins are still a hot team. 13-4 in their last seventeen games gives us the confidence we need in them.
John Ryan
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Diego – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 62-15 making 39.1 units for a remarkable 81% since 2002. Play against road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 after a win by 2 runs or less now facing an opponent after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. Two excellent starters to be sure, but the difference in this game will be the bullpens. Seattle has an unacceptable 5.81 ERA in day games spanning 70 innings of relief. San Diego has posted a strong 2.96 ERA in day games spanning 82 IP. SD starter Peavy might not even need the bullpen as he is a perfect 4-0 when starting against Seattle with an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP of 0.779. Take SD