J. R. Miller
TIGERS -157 over Rockies (Rogers-Reynolds)
BLUEJAYS -148 over Braves (Burnett-Reyes)
INDIANS -165 over Reds (Laffey-Arroyo)
ASTROS +154 over Redsox (Moehler-Beckett) (OR +1.5 -114)
Redsox at Astros OVER 8.5 +102 (Beckett-Moehler)
Remember, we pay attention to hits even more than runs. The number of hits can tell you if you were on the right side of the bet, even though you might have lost the game.
If Team A gets 4 or 5 hits in only one inning, they will probably get at least 3 runs in the inning. On the other hand, if Team B gets 1 hit in each and every inning of a 9-inning game, they may not get any runs at all. Team A wins the game, but Team B out-hits Team A, 9 to 4 or 5.
Given no information other than that, and forced to bet on the next game between Team A and Team B, we would bet on Team B. The sequence of hits can make all the difference in whether or not a team may win, but stick with the team that figures to get the most hits. Historically, the team that gets the most hits wins the game more than 75%-80% of the time.
In yesterday's Giants/Athletics' game we were on the Athletics and they out-hit the Giants, 7-2, so we felt good about that....But it didn't save us. The Giants won the game and beat us, 1-0.
BALFE
Major League Baseball
Padres -145 over Mariners
Peavy/Bedard
Scott Sprietzer Daytime GOY
LA ANGELS
Jeff Scott
2 Units Red Sox
2 Units Cin / Cleve Under
1 Unit Ariz / Fla Under
1 Unit Tigers
EZ WINNERS
2 STAR: (912) PITTSBURGH (+$111) over Tampa Bay
(Action) (Risking $200 to win $222)
2 STAR: (921) ST. LOUIS (+$105) OVER Kansas City
(Listing Looper Only) (Risking $200 to win $210)
1 STAR: (905) ATLANTA (+$138) over Toronto
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $138
1 STAR: (928) TEXAS (+$105) over Philadelphia
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $105)
FRANK ROSENTHAL
901 DBACKS-125
906 JAYS-145
909 YANKS OVER 9.5
918 CWS-135
OVER 9
922 KC-110
924 PADRES-140
926 A'S-140
929 ANGELS-110
UNDER 7
Ben Burns
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
The Mariners have won the first two games of this series but this afternoon's matchup favors the Padres to avoid the sweep. While Bedard is highly capable, he has an awful 6.59 ERA and 1.5 WHIP on the road this season. He also missed his last scheduled start after leaving with back spasms and pitching only three innings in his last time on the mound. He'll be matched up against Jake Peavy, who appears completely healthy after throwing more than 100 pitches in his last start. On the season, Peavy has an outstanding 1.29 ERA and 0.837 WHIP here at Petco Park. He's also 4-0 (Padres were 5-0!) with a superb 1.56 ERA and 0.786 WHIP in five career starts vs. the Mariners. Consider a play on SAN DIEGO
Larry Ness
Philadelphia Phillies @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies' lineup includes Ryan Howard (MVP in '06), Jimmy Rollins (MVP in '07) and Chase Utley (23 HRs / 65 RBI in '08) but after a 20-2 win at St Louis on June 13, the team lost NINE of its next 11 games, while scoring a pathetic 31 runs (2.82 per game). However, a visit to Texas to face one of MLB's worst pitching staffs, has seen the Phiilies score15 runs the last two games (lost 8-7 Friday but won last night, 8-6). Texas owns MLB's second-worst team ERA (4.93) and will start rookie Eric Hurley on Sunday, who is making just his fourth big league start. He's 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA so far, with the Rangers yet to win one of his starts. He'll be opposed by veteran lefty, Jamie Moyer. Moyer has lost his last two starts but he hasn't pitched that poorly (3.86 ERA). However, it's hard to win when your team scores just two runs in the two games, combined. Moyer has been very effective on the road this year, going 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA in eight road starts (team is 6-2). There's little reason for Moyer not to be successful here, as the Rangers have struggled this season against all lefties, going only 8-17 in '08. The longtime American Leaguer has 33 career starts against the Rangers, posting a 14-7 mark (4.95 ERA), with his teams going 21-12. It also helps that Moyer is backed by a Philadelphia bullpen which owns the best ERA in all of MLB (2.63), while Hurley, a rookie making just his fourth career start, is backed by MLB's worst bullpen (4.90 ERA). Take the Phillies.
Wunderdog
St. Louis at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -116
St. Louis broke a couple of streaks with their win yesterday. The win put an end to their three game slide and also ended KC's six-game winning streak. But let's not let one game cloud the situation here. The fact remains that the Cards have lost seven of their last 11 while the Royals have won 11 of their last 13. Both of these starters have been hot of late, posting sub 3.00 ERAs over their last three starts. But, Looper has a worse overall ERA and a 3.91 road ERA compared to Bannister's 2.48 home ERA. KC's bats have struggled this season but during this winning run, that's not been the case. The Royals just seem to like interleague play as they are 13-4 so far this season against cross-league opponents. The last two seasons, Bannister is 9-2 in June games and 11-3 in day games. We like the Royals here.
Beat Your Bookie
100 Clev
50 Arz
50 SD
Jeffmoney
Whitesox -135 (pod)
Twins +115
Royals -115
Padres -145
Angels -110
Phillies -120
NOSTRADAMUS
NYM -115
TB/Pitt U 9.5
Minn +125
Oak -135
LAA -120
NSA
20* Tampa Bay -125
10* Yankees +105
10* St Louis +105
10* Minnesota +120
10* Angels -120
10* White Sox -145
David Malinsky
Atlanta Braves @ Toronto Blue
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays 3*
We needed to wait for the lineups on this one, but now that the Atlanta has confirmed that Chipper Jones and Yunel Escobar will sit out again, the timing is right to get behind A. J. Burnett and he Blue Jays this afternoon.
The Braves have floundered at a dismal 12-28 clip on the road this season, and many of those defeats came with much better lineups than they are putting on the field today. With Jones and Escobar sidelined the left side of the infield becomes Brent Lillibridge (.158) and Ruben Gotay (.197). As punchless as they have been there are also defensive issues as well, a problem with left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes on the mound. Reyes has not had a single start this season in which his fly-ball outs exceeded his ground-outs, but with Toronto sending seven right-handers to the plate against him, a lot of those ground balls are going to challenge the left side of the Atlanta defense, on a fast surface, with much of that helping to contribute to the poor showing of Tim Hudson yesterday (six earned runs over seven innings). And the Reyes confidence is also an issue, having been shelled in his last start vs. Milwaukee, when 66 pitches could only get him through 2.1 innings. Meanwhile the absence of Escobar also leaves Atlanta without a true leadoff hitter, and the Braves do not get help much by the DH being in play, with the injury to Matt Diaz forcing Greg Norton and his .204 (since coming over to the N.L.) out there against Burnett.
Burnett has the ability to overpower weak lineups - after struggling to get into pitching shape early in the season he has now recorded 73 strikeouts over 62 innings in his last 10 starts, and his dominating home win vs. Cincinnati earlier in the week was hit best outing of the season, working eight innings at an economical 13.9 pitches per frame (the latter matching his season low). And with a deep and talented bullpen behind him the latter stages are in good hands as well, giving us a game that the home team can control.
RON RAYMOND'S 5* MLB O/U GAME OF THE DAY
Reds / Indians Under 9