Louie Mayo
MLB
(5*) 43-44 -43.40 Phillies -122
(3*) 44-48 -32.12 Milwaukee -128
(1*) 49-40 +.80 Detroit -169
WNBA
(50*) Seattle -6½
(50*) Detroit -16
WINNERS EDGE
Florida Marlins +110 , 2 units
Chicago Cubs + 135 , 2 units
Mr A
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
The struggling Rockies have lost their last 6 games. Look for the red-hot Tigers to sweep the ice cold Rockies this afternoon at at Comerica Park. Detroit is 10-1 in its last 11 home games and have won are 21 of Rogers' last 27 home starts.
Colorado's Greg Reynolds (2-5, 5.68) is 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. The rookie right-hander has never faced the Tigers
Detroit's Kenny Rogers (5-5, 4.60 ERA) is 1-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last three starts. The lefthander is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies, but hasn't faced them since 2003.
Detroit Tigers -160
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: BRAVES
10 Dime: METS
10 Dime: BREWERS
DAVID MALINSKY
Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Under 6*
Offense does not get any worse than the showing that these two put on last night - no earned runs, one extra base hit, 19 strikeouts. But it was not merely “one of those nights”. Rather it was a reflection of two struggling offenses against good pitching. And that does not change today.
We have cashed a pair of 6* Under tickets in Dodger games this weak and the bottom line is that an offense without power (an anemic 53 home runs), is hard-pressed to make anything happen until Rafael Furcal returns. They have only scored 23 runs in eight games on this home stand, and note that two of those games went into extra innings. Now it is the dominating form of John Lackey that they have to face, and his 5-1/1.65 does not lie - he has allowed only 45 hits and 11 walks in 60 innings, while striking out 45. While some pitchers have bad games, with Lackey we have to search hard to even find bad innings - only twice in his first 60 has the opposition scored more than a single run in a frame. And the Angels have the entire bullpen rested and ready behind him, meaning nine innings of tough swings for the Los Angeles hitters.
Meanwhile one of our 6* success came behind Derek Lowe on Tuesday night, despite the fact that he walked away with a box score that many will judge as below average - 7.1 innings, five runs, nine hits. Rarely could a box be more wrong. Lowe’s stuff that night was as good as we have seen from him in any outing this season. Not only did he throw strikes (72 of 104 pitches were in the zone), but they were strikes in difficult places that made good contact almost impossible. But Joe Torre left him in a bit too long, sending him the mound down 2-1 after seven innings, and he finally made a mistake in the 8th that Jermaine Dye hit out of the park. Considering Dye’s spectacular current run, it is not much of a negative. Here is the real story of Lowe’s night - of the 25 outs he recorded only one came in the air, with 16 on the ground and eight strikeouts. He only walked one batter. That is good stuff, and it continues a run that has him at a 2.59 over his last seven starts, and the feeble Angel offense, which has yet to score in this series, does not turn that around.
While Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito have each worked the first two games of this series, their fatigue ratings are not bad. Broxton has not been scored on in his last 10 outings, and has only needed 30 pitches the first two games, while Saito checks in at 35, which has him available. That means another day in which the offenses are simply overmatched, and we can grab yet another 6* ticket to take advantage.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
PICK: Boston Red Sox 3*
There are few situations in sport that we can rely on more than the true “A” team bouncing back off of a bitter defeat. Baseball is obviously a little different from football and basketball in that regard, because the starting pitcher changes each day, and also has such an impact on the game. But what happens when an “A” team if off of a loss and has their ace going? Good things. And that puts us in the right place at the right time to back the Red Sox today.
This will be the 22nd time over the past two seasons that Josh Beckett has taken the mound for Boston off of a Red Sox defeat. The first 21 games have cashed at a 15-6 rate, a sizzling 71.4 percent winning clip. And the current form of Beckett makes this an outstanding fit. In five of his last six starts he has allowed two runs or less, a span in which he has compiled a dominating count of 41 strikeouts vs. only seven walks, but we get a price break because the wins did not pile up in that span - he actually twice lost games in which he only allowed two runs.
Today Beckett gets that support as the Red Sox face the mediocre stuff of Brian Moehler. Moehler has worked to a respectable 4-3/4.03, doing in by working the corners and getting opposing hitters to swing at bad pitches. But now he faces his most awkward challenge - a disciplined lineup that is not going to swing at many of those pitches that are over the black border of the plate, and will instead force the ball into the middle of the strike zone. They enter today tied for the Major League lead in walks, and that is going to force Moehler out of his preferred rhythm. When that happens, his stuff is nothing special at all.
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
PICK: Baltimore Orioles 4*
It is no secret that the Nationals have been awful offensively without Ryan Zimmerman and Dan Johnson. It is also not a secret that quality pitchers dominate weak lineups. But what seems to be a secret, in terms of the value that we see in this game, is just how bad the Nationals have been in this setting. And perhaps how good Jeremy Guthrie really is.
Here is list of pitchers Washington has faced that we rate in the upper third of MLB right-handers - Tim Hudson (twice). Adam Wainwright. John Smoltz (twice). John Maine. Ryan Dempster. Carlos Zambrano. Roy Oswalt. Jeremy Guthrie. Ben Sheets. Brandon Webb. Danny Haren. Tim Lincecum. John Lackey. Ervin Santana. How did the Nationals fare in those games? A dismal 5-12. But as bad as that is, if we go further we find and even more significant truth - those starters worked to a 10-2/1.80 tune over 120.1 innings in those games. They averaged over seven innings per start, and 16 of the 17 qualified as quality starts (in the only miss, Ervin Santana allowed four runs in six innings).
Now on to Guthrie. He has been a classic example of a tough luck pitcher the past two seasons, with a 10-12 record as a starter despite a 3.53 ERA over 272.2 innings. But those have been awfully good innings, coming out of the A.L. East, where a lot of your pitches have to be thrown against the Yankees and Red Sox (10 of his 43 starts have been against those two teams). And as for the 3.64 allowance this season, how about a road schedule that has had him already work against the Cubs, Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Angels and A’s? Overall 12 of his 17 starts have come against teams that currently sport winning records. So what happens when he steps down in class? Good things. In the five games against losing teams it has been a 1.96 ERA, and perhaps even more impressive is a count of 36.2 innings in those games. Now he gets a chance to step way down in class, and will do it with a chip on his shoulder -as part of a tough-luck cycle this season he allowed only one run on five hits at home against Washington back on May 18, but left trailing 1-0, and got tagged with a loss in a game that the Orioles lost 2-1.
Much has changed since then. The Baltimore offense has found its way, scoring 5.8 runs per game in the current 15-9 clip, and the run has come in a most difficult schedule stretch - 17 of those 24 games came against teams that sport winning records. They can send a lot of left-handed punch out against Jason Bergmann, who continues to struggle vs. hitters from that side - he has allowed lefties to hit .314 this season, and the past two seasons the gap is 64 points between left and right for him. That means plenty of support for Guthrie, and after the way he lost the last time to these Nats, it will be an offense coming to the table with an extra spark, knowing that they owe him one.
Joe Gaffney
Arizona D-Backs vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Arizona D-Backs Play 7 units
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAYS
CLEVELAND/Cincinati Under 9
The Under is 10-3 in Arroyos last 13 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, while the Under is 40-12 in Indians last 52 during game 3 of a series and 41-10-3 in their last 54 Sunday games, plus the Under is 7-1 in Welkes last 8 games behind home plate vs. Cleveland and 20-8-1 in his last 29 interleague games behind home plate. Aaron Laffey has been a very good pitcher for the Tribe this year, as he comes in with a 2.83 ERA overall, including a 1.39 ERA at home and an 0.87 ERA in his day starts. Aarons home games have averaged just 8 rpg, while his day starts have averaged just 6.7 rpg. Aaron will be taking on a struggling Cincinnati offense as they come in averageing just 2.5 rpg in their last 12 games, while scoring 1 run or less in 7 of those games, plus those 12 games have averaged just 7.8 rpg. The Reds also score just 4.1 rpg on the road and 3.1 rpg in interleague play, with those interleague games averaging just 7.9 rpg. The Tribe has also been struggling to score lately as they come in averaging just 3.2 rpg in their last 11 games, plus they score 3.2 rpg in day games and 4 rpg in interleague play. Cleveland's home games have averaged just 8.3 rpg, while their day games have averaged just 7 rpg and their interleague games have put up just 8 rpg. Bronson Arroyo has really struggled for the Reds this year, but he is facing an offense that can't hit right now, so look for him to have one of his beeter outings of the year. 11 total runs have been scored in the first 2 games of this series and I look for more of the same today as both pitchers will have success vs these two struggling offenses. About 7 runs in this one.
I ALSO LIKE
Detroit -159 over Colorado: I like the fact that the Tigers are 25-4 in their last 29 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record, plus they clearly have the pitching edge in this one. Detroit wins a bit easier than last night.
1 UNIT PLAY
Arizona/ FLORIDA Under 8:
The 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games as a road favorite and 8-3 in Harens last 11 starts overall, while the Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 games as a home underdog and 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Florida. Both teams are playing putrid offense right now as the D-Backs come in having scored just 2.3 rpg in the ir last 9 games, while the Marlins have averaged the same 2.3 rpg in thier last 6 games.For the year the D-Backs score just 3.7 rpg on the road, while hitting .214 in the process, plus they score just 4.5 rpg in day games, while hitting just .237 in those day games. Arizona's road games have averaged 7.8 rpg, while their last 9 overall have averaged just 6.2 rpg. The Marlins score just 4.3 rpg at home, while hitting .239 and just 4.4 rpg in day games, while hitting just .243. Danny Haren will take the mound for Arizona and he has been rolling lately posting a 1.58 ERA in his last 5 starts, iincluding a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 starts, allowing a .203 OBP and a sizzling 0.65 WHIP. Danny has a 3.89 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging just 7 rpg, while he has a nice 1.97 ERA in day games, with those games averaging just 7.6 rpg. Scott Olsen has a solid 3.44 ERA overall, a 3.46 ERA in day games and a 2.86 ERA at home, while allowing a .292 OBP in his home starts. This game features two solid starters and two struggling offenses and that will lead to a low scoring affair in the Sunshine State.
Added 2 Units Red Sox
Andre Gomes
Atlanta Dream @ Detroit Shock
Detroit comes to this game in a terrible mood, at least they will face Atlanta and a victory for them looks easy to guarantee. They were slaughtered by Chicago last night on the road by 59-76 in a game where they were favored by six points, but everything went wrong and I expect a bounce back today.
"Our effort was obnoxious," Shock coach Bill Laimbeer said. "It was embarrassing. It won't happen again."
But I can't forget that the spot for Detroit isn't great for them today. Ok, you don't need much to beat Atlanta at home, but Detroit will play today their 5th match in 8 days and this will be a back to back game for them. A bounce back will happen in here, but due to the spot, I expect the Shock to control the pace of the game, not wanting to push up the tempo, which will only favor the Dream.
Atlanta in their largest point spread differential (15 points dog) of the season almost won at Connecticut, ending up losing at overtime by 101-109. But keep in mind Atlanta had a really good spot for that game, as they had 5 days off to rest and they are 5-0 Over in that kind of situation, but for today's game they only had one day to rest, in a spot where they are 4-2 Under. This is a close out series game and in their previous matches, Detroit easily defeated Atlanta on the road by 88-76 and 97-76 in high scoring games. I don't expect the same to happen today, as Detroit will be more focused defensively than in the previous games and they won't allow the tempo of the game to be pushed up, as it happened in the previous games against the Dream this season. Take the under as a best bet in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) Under 160.5
Washington Mystics @ Seattle Storm
Washington was great in their last game by committing the upset of the season, winning at LA by 77-74 when they were a 12 points underdog. In fact they are in a nice run of 3 consecutive road wins and they will be looking today for the fourth one in a row.
"It gives us a lot of confidence to start this West Coast trip," said Currie, who is second on the Mystics with 13.6 points per game, but has averaged 20.0 in her last three. "We haven't been playing as well as we have liked, so this really changes the momentum and gives us a lot of energy."
Today they will face Seattle, who is slumping a little bit, as they are coming from four losses in their last five games, so they won't be in a good mood. The fact that they had four days to rest allowed the coach together with the players to reflect what the team has done wrong and one of the conclusions is that lately they have been terrible in the attack, which is a fact as they are 6-1 when they score 70 points or more, but when they score less than that, they are just 2-6. I expect a good game today with Washington being an active dog, playing with a lot of confidence and obligating Seattle to step it up offensively in order to win the game. The bookies have set a low line of 140,5 points, something in these conditions is a reachable value, with the teams scoring a lot of points down the stretch.
Washington is 6-0 Over in road games having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. They are also 11-3 Over in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. I expect a good game, with a score good enough to reach mid 140's. Take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on Over 140.5
WUNDERDOG
WNBA
Phoenix at Connecticut
Pick: 3 units OVER 178
Phoenix games average 178 ppg which is exactly where this total is set. But, that's too low considering who they are facing. Connecticut averages 85.1 per game at home while allowing 77. And over their past five games, both of these teams are really seeing the scoreboard shine. Connecticut has allowed nearly 80 ppg over that span while Phoenix games have averaged 187 ppg over the last five! Phoenix is 22-12 OVER the past two seasons vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 73+ ppg). We like this one to sail OVER.
Washington at Seattle
Pick: 3 units OVER 140.5
Seattle has gone UNDER in seven of eight home games this season. So why do we like things to be different here? Washington is coming to town. We get some extra value on the OVER here given Seattle's O-U record here as well. Washington is averaging 74 ppg over their last five games and they give up 73.8 per game on the season. Seattle will defintely score here and we think Washington will get enough to push the game OVER. Washington is 9-2 OVER the past two seasons on the road in non-conference games. They are also 13-4 OVER during that span after having allowed 70+ points in three straight games
WUNDERDOG
MLB
St. Louis at Kansas City
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -115
St. Louis broke a couple of streaks with their win yesterday. The win put an end to their three game slide and also ended KC's six-game winning streak. But let's not let one game cloud the situation here. The fact remains that the Cards have lost seven of their last 11 while the Royals have won 11 of their last 13. Both of these starters have been hot of late, posting sub 3.00 ERAs over their last three starts. But, Looper has a worse overall ERA and a 3.91 road ERA compared to Bannister's 2.48 home ERA. KC's bats have struggled this season but during this winning run, that's not been the case. The Royals just seem to like interleague play as they are 13-4 so far this season against cross-league opponents. The last two seasons, Bannister is 9-2 in June games and 11-3 in day games. We like the Royals here.
San Francisco at Oakland
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +130
The Battle of the Bay concludes this afternoon. While the Athletics have dominated this series, are the tables turning? The Giants won yesterday and we think they get another today as the A's send struggling Joe Blanton to the mound. Blanton has a 4.58 ERA and 4-10 record. Over his last three starts he's 1-2 with a sky-high 7.02 ERA. The A's get just 3.7 runs per game vs. LHP like Sanchez. Oakland owns a losing record the past couple of seasons at home vs. losing opponents. Sanchez is 11-4 this season as an underdog including 5-0 as a dog of +125 to +175! We like the dog here.
Seattle at San Diego
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +132
The Pads have now lost eleven of twelve games including seven straight and we think it goes to eight this afternoon. Yes, Jake Peavy goes for San Diego and he's been big-time again this year. But thanks to lack of run support he's barely over .500. Erik Bedard can hang with him, given this Padres offense. Bedard has been pitching very well (1.93 ERA over his last three starts). San Diego gets just 3.6 runs per game at home and 3.4 per game vs. LHP. Over their past seven games, this team is averaged a ridiculous 2.7 runs per game (compared to 4.9 for Seattle)! Seattle has fared well this season vs. low-octane offenses as they are 9-4 vs. teams that hit under one home run per game. San Diego is just 11-16 this season as a home favorite and 3-14 in inter-league games. We'll take the M's here.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels -117
Well, we have taken it in the shorts backing the Angels the past two games. They came in as the best road team in baseball but haven't been able to win one against the Dodgers. We are either persistent or just bull-headed because we are backing the Angels yet again here. Last night they held the Dodgers hitless but still somehow lost. The problem is their very bad offense in the series. The fact remains that their offense is more productive than that of the Dodgers who average 3.9 runs per game at home and 3.8 vs. RHP. Derek Lowe has been decent 4.05 ERA) but is still 5-7. Meanwhile John Lackey has been outstanding. Lackey owns a ridiculous 1.65 ERA and 5-1 record. Over his last three starts he's even been improving (1.57 ERA and 0.913 WHIP)! This season the Angels are 12-3 on the road after allowing under three runs. They are 9-1 after a one-run loss! We love Lackey and expect the Angels to avoid the sweep.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 runs +140
We are going to back the Angels on the -1.5 run line as well as we don't see the Dodgers managing much offense at all here today against Lackey and a very motivated Angels club who don't want to be swept. The past two seasons the Angels are 19-10 to the run line after a one-run loss. THis season they are 29-17 to the run line when the price is between -130 and +160. The Dodgers are 9-120 to the run line the past two seasons in inter-league play.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs +124
Can the White Sox sweep the Cubs? Don't count on it. The Cubbies have now lost five in a row on the road but we like their chances to break out of their slump tonight and avoid the sweep at the hands of their cross-town rivals. The Cubs have been premier this year because they have avoiding long losing streaks. They will be focused here as they are 10-2 this season off consecutive losses. The White Sox certainly have the pitching advantage on paper, but the fact remains that Buehrle has a losing record and the Cubs own a 16-8 record vs. LHP, scoring 6.5 runs per game against them on average. Meanwhile the Sox average just 4.0 runs per game vs. southpaws. It's not often you're going to get the Cubs as a dog like this. We'll take that value.
JOHN RYAN
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: OVER
Ai Simulator 7* graded play OVER Texas/Philadelphia ? AiS shows an 85% probability that 11 or more runs will be scored in this game. Jamie Moyer is truly ageless and has done extremely well again this season with a FB that rarely gets above 83 MPH. However, this game will be played in the launching pad called the Ballpark at Arlington and both teams are projected to score a ton of runs. Moyer allowed 5 ER in 6 IP in his last start here in Texas on August 12th 2006. Let?s face facts here too that Texas has the worst pitching staff in the Majors and worst statistically in the AL in ERA with a horrid 4.93. Texas sends an inexperienced 22-year old rookie to the hill in Hurley. The Texas bullpen ranks dead last in relief pitching with a 4.93 ERA and IP with 290.1. Yes, Philly ranks first in the Majors in relief ERA, but they have shown some weaknesses of late allowing a WHIP of 1.801 and allowing 3 HR and 11 BB in the last 7 games. Texas hitting best at home with a 299 BA scoring 6.1 RPG in 37 games. Philadelphia is 19-7 OVER (+11.8 Units) in road games versus an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better since 1997. The current members of the Texas roster have hit Moyer to the tune of 315 spanning 146 AB. Michael Young is batting 370 and Bradley 412. Take the OVER.
Atlanta Dream vs. Detroit Shock
Pick: Atlanta Dream
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Atlanta (WNBA) ? We nailed Atlanta in their last game which was a strong performance at Connecticut losing by 8 points installed as a 15 point dog. They are still winless on the season, but are playing better team basketball. AiS shows an 85% probability that Atlanta will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 99-56 ATS since 1997. Play against home teams that are poor defensive teams allowing 73+ points/game on the season and is now facing an opponent after allowing 80 points or more. Detroit is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Detroit HC Lambeer is just 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) versus poor ball handling teams that are committing >=17 turnovers/game as the coach of Detroit.
GAMBLERS WORLD
TIP OF THE DAY
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
The fans at U.S. Cellular Field will be treated to a interleague game between the Chicago Cubs and the Chicago White Sox when they take their seats on Sunday. The Cubs will give the ball to starter Sean Marshall in this one. Lefthander Marshall is 0-1 this season with a 7.71 ERA. The White Sox will counter Marshall with ace Mark Buehrle. Lefthander Buehrle has a 4.04 ERA to go along with a 5-6 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the White Sox listed as 155-moneyline favorites versus the Cubs, while the game's total is sitting at 9. Jermaine Dye drove in two runs in helping the White Sox defeat the Cubs 6-5 on Saturday, as -140 favorites. The combined 11 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (8.5). Dye homered and finished 2-for-3 at the plate for the White Sox. Matt Thornton tossed 1 2-3 innings of relief for the win, and Bobby Jenks threw a scoreless ninth for his 18th save. Derrek Lee was a perfect 5-for-5 at the plate with three RBIs for the Cubs, who were +110 underdogs. Carlos Marmol gave up the winning run and was tagged with the loss. Current streak: Chicago has lost 3 straight games. Chicago has won 3 straight games. Team records: Chicago: 49-32 SU Chicago: 45-35 SU Chicago most recently: When playing on Sunday are 5-5 Before playing San Francisco are 6-4 After playing Chi White Sox are 6-4 After a loss are 5-5 Chicago most recently: When playing on Sunday are 4-6 Before playing Cleveland are 5-5 After playing Chi Cubs are 5-5 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: Chi Cubs are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chi White Sox Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games Chi Cubs are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs Chi White Sox are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chi Cubs
Anton Wins
3 units Colorado +155
Greg Shaker
2 Units- TB / Pitt Over
NICK PARSONS
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
In the battle of Los Angeles look for another very low scoring game today! The Angels and Dodgers combined for just one run in yesterday's game and the only run came from the Dodgers even though they were no-hit by the Angeles Weaver! The Angels have now lost three straight games and they've been shutout in each of the last two games. The Dodgers last six games have seen them and their opponents combine for a total of just 28 runs. That's an average of fewer than five runs per game and, as you would expect, all six games stayed under. With the Angels offense struggling there is no reason to expect anything to change today. This is especially true with two solid hurlers on the mound in the form of John Lackey and Derek Lowe. The Angels Lackey has a 1.65 ERA and a .213 BAA so far this season. He also has a 1.41 ERA and a .203 BAA versus the Dodgers in his career. The Dodgers Lowe has a 3.52 ERA at home this season with a .241 BAA. Lowe is coming off of a rare, rough start against the White Sox as, prior to that, the right-hander had allowed just 9 earned runs in his last 41.3 innings of work! Just like yesterday's game, the pitchers will rule again in this afternoon?s match-up! UNDER is the story again in Los Angeles!