Brian Hansen
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have won 16 of their last 20 overall games. Detroit has won 12 of their last 14 home games. The Tigers send Kenny Rogers to the mound and he's a perfect 3-0 in his career outings versus Colorado and has compiled a 2.78 ERA against them. The Rockies send Greg Reynolds to the mound and he's 0-3 on the road this season with an ugly 7.71 ERA. He's also had trouble with walks on the road and the Tigers are a tough lineup that often displays patience at the plate. As for the Rockies, their line-up hasn't hit well at all in recent weeks! Most of last night's damage came with two outs in the top of the ninth! Colorado is also just 12-30 on the road this season and when a team is struggling like the Rockies are right now, and a team is hot like the Tigers currently are, there are opportunities like this where laying the money line price is worth it! Detroit in another rout here!
MTi Sports
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are 31-5 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and the Rockies are 1-15 as a 140+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last four games and it is not the first game of a series. Take Detroit.
KELSO
High Rollers Baseball Club
10 unit Twins
Best Bets Baseball Club
10 unit Angels
4 unit Arizona
3 unit Mets
Larry Ness Interleague GOY
The Padres lost their seventh straight game last night (4-2) and have now lost 11 of their last 12 games in interleague play, falling to a ML-worst 3-14 in IL play. However, there is a silver lining to today's contest, beginning with San Diego's opponent. The Mariners won 88 games last season and were MLB's second-best team vs the moneyline (plus-$1,924), but despite consecutive wins here in San Diego, enter this game with an even worse record in '08 than the Padres, at 30-50 (Padres are 32-50). On the mound for Seattle is Erik Bedard, who has come nowhere near expectations this season. After back-to-back seasons in Baltimore of 15-11 with a 3.76 ERA (2006) and 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA (2007), he was Seattle's big addition this off-season. Things haven't gone as planned as Bedard spent most of April on the DL with soreness in his hip and enters this game just 4-4 with a 3.97 ERA, including a road ERA of 6.59 in six starts. He left his most recent start (June 20) after throwing three scoreless innings in Atlanta, leaving the game with back spasms. He was then was scratched from his Wednesday start but after throwing in the bullpen Friday, said he was ready to go today. "I've never had a back spasm before," Bedard was quoted as saying. "Now I sure know what they are. ... I couldn't walk." Who knows how effective Bedard will be or how long he'll be able to go? As for the Padres, they'll turn to last year's NL Cy Young award winner, Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54 ERA in '07). He's just 5-4 with a 2.77 ERA this season, spending almost a full month (mid-May through mid-June) on the DL with a strained elbow. However, Peavy returned on June 12 at home vs the Dodgers, going six innings (three hits and no runs) in a 9-0 win. He was mediocre at Yankee Stadium in his next start but back home in Petco this past Tuesday, went six innings while allowing five hits and only one run. The fact that he threw 106 pitches shows that his elbow is just fine. Everyone knows that Petco is a pitcher-friendly park but Peavy takes it a higher-level, as he owns the best home ERA in MLB at 1.29. That covers seven starts (49 innings / 28 hits) in which he has allowed more than two ERs just once (allowed three to the Rockies on May 9). There is little doubt the Padres are in a funk but they had their chances last night (10 hits) and Bedard "can be had on the road" and may not be 100 percent. Let's not forget just how good Peavy is and that the Mariners are 22-37 this year vs all right-handers, going 3-11 in day games, while averaging 2.8 RPG. Peavy has not faced the Mariners since 2006 but he's 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA against them in five career starts (team is 5-0). Interleague GOY 20* SD Padres.
Las Vegas Insider
My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Mets at 1:10 ET. The Mets won twice at Yankee Stadium in May (one game was postponed). They then won that make-up game Friday afternoon in the Bronx (15-6), giving them a three-game sweep of their rivals in Yankee Stadium. The Mets scored a total of 33 runs in the three wins in the Bronx but have returned to Queens and been unable to score. Friday night, reject Sidney Ponson pitched six scoreless innings in a 9-0 win by the Yanks and Saturday afternoon, Pettitte out-pitched Santana, as the Yanks made it two straight in Shea, winning 3-2. Can the Yankees make it a six-game sweep of this "Subway Series" by the road team, today? It's seems unlikely that Darrell Rasner will be able to shut down the Mets. This will be his 10th start of '08, matching the total of starts he's made in his three previous big league seasons. Rasner's first start of '08 didn't come until May 4, an 8-2 win over the Mariners in Yankee Stadium. He got off to a 3-0 start (1.89 ERA) but is 1-5 with a 6.00 ERA in his last six starts and hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in ANY of his last three outings (13.2 IP / 22 hits / 15 ERs / 9.88 ERA). As for the Mets, they'll go with Oliver Perez. Perez made a huge 'splash' with the Pirates in '04, going 12-8 with a 2.98 ERA, striking out 239 batters that year in 196 innings. Things fell apart quickly for him though, before he 'came alive' for the Mets in the '06 postseason. He was pretty solid last year, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA but it's been a struggle '08. He enters this game 5-5 with a 5.29 ERA in 16 starts (team is 7-9), having won just ONE of his last seven starts, allowing four ERs or more FIVE times in that stretch. However, he's had good success against the Yanks going 4-1 with a 2.88 ERA against them in five all-time meetings. Let's also note that the Yankees struggled against lefties last year on the road, going 5-14 against them. Yesterday's 3-2 win over Santana, makes the Yanks a modest 14-12 vs left-handed starters this season and I'll also point out that in five road day games vs lefties in '08, the Yanks are 2-3 while scoring just 10 runs (two per game!). The Mets are hitless in 10 at-bats with RISP these first two games at Shea but "get it right" this afternoon against the struggling Rasner. Las Vegas Insider on the NY Mets.
Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Cincinnati at Cleveland
Note: This is our Total of the Month.
Here we have two teams that just haven't gotten their offenses off the ground. Over the last seven days the Reds are hitting .199 while the Indians are at .232. Aaron Laffey takes the hill for the Tribe and the lefty is exactly the type of pitcher that the lefty-heavy Reds lineup has not been able to produce against. Both clubs are in the bottom-third of the league in hitting in day games and even though Bronson Arroyo has been a pinata lately I think with a favorable ump (Tim Welke) behind the dish his goofy stuff can be effective against the Indians. The 'under' is 41-10 in Cleveland's last 51 Sunday games, is 10-4 with the Reds as an underdog, and is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these clubs. Here's to a lot of double plays, strikeouts, and weak fly balls - I think this one is staying well 'under' this afternoon.
4-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 7.0 (+105) Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
3.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 7.5 San Francisco at Oakland
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Baltimore at Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 11.0 Philadelphia at Texas
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 St. Louis at Kansas City
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Atlanta at Toronto
Sides for Sunday
2-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-145) over Atlanta
2-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (-125) over Washington
1.5-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-115) over Pittsburgh
1.5-Unit Play. Chicago White Sox (-135) over Chicago Cubs
3.5-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-120) over Los Angeles Dodgers
Vernon Croy
San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics
Pick: Under 20 Unit MLB Afternoon Total of the Week
Both of these starters have pitched solid this season and the O/U was 4-11 for the Giants in interleague games before last nights game. The O/U is 7-19 for the Athletics when facing a left starter this season and they are hitting just .245 as a team against lefties while averaging just 3.7 rpg. Johnathan Sanchez (7-4, 3.98 ERA) has pitched solid overall this season and I look for him to have a lot of success against this Athletics line-up that has struggled against lefties this season. Joe Blanton (4-10, 4.58 ERA) has pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 3.66 and the O/U is 1-6 for the Giants at Oakland the last 3 seasons not counting last nights game. Oakland’s opponents are hitting just .223 against them at home this season while averaging just 3.3 rpg. Take the Under as my MLB Afternoon Total of the Week.
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Atlanta Braves 20 Unit MLB Afternoon Dog of the Month
This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and the Braves have the better overall pitcher on the mound today. Jo-Jo Reyes (3-5, 4.48 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.83 while striking out 22 batters over just 28.7 innings and A.J. Burnett (7-7, 5.07 ERA) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 6.46 allowing 47 hits over just 39 innings pitched. Burnett is just 4-9 lifetime against Atlanta and Atlanta is hitting .290 as a team in day games this season while the Jays are hitting just .237 as a team against lefty starters. The Jays are just 6-15 when facing a lefty starter this season and they are just 3-6 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season. Take Atlanta as my MLB Afternoon Dog of the Month
Michael Cannon
20 Dime –
ANGELS (With Lackey as listed pitcher)
Take the Angels for the road win today over the Dodgers.
I have to think John Lackey will stop the bleeding here for the Halos. The right-hander has won four straight starts, posting a 1.50 ERA with 25 strikeouts and five walks.
Lackey has also had success in his career against the Dodgers, going 4-1 with a 1.45 ERA in six starts.
The Dodgers will counter with Derek Lowe, who has had a tough time in interleague play this year. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA in three starts against the Junior Circuit.
Lowe’s struggles against the A.L. could help awaken the Angels slumping offense, and that combined with Lackey on the mound makes them the play here.
Take the Angels as they grab the road win.
10 Dime –
TWINS (With Slowey as listed pitcher)
Take the Twins as the home dog this afternoon over the Brewers.
Not an easy task going against Ben Sheets, but it’s not like the Twins haven’t been playing good baseball lately.
Minnesota’s loss last night ended a season-high 10-game winning streak, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they’ll bounce back today.
Kevin Slowey will get the start for the Twins and he’s 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts.
The Twins have not lost consecutive games since a six-game losing streak from June 5-10, and haven’t lost a series since losing two of three at Cleveland from June 10-12.
Take the Twins as they grab the home win.
Ethan Law
PLAY 1/2* UNIT ON METS/YANKEES OVER 9.5 -110
PLAY 1/2* UNIT ON ATLANTA +$135
Jeff Bonds
ANA (-112) vs LOS
PIT / TAM Over 9.5
CLE / CIN Under 9
SDP (-150)vs SEA
Greg Shaker
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
Athletics -1.5 (Sanchez/Blanton) 150 Unit Value: 2
Play this one at 1/2 Moneyline of -140 and 1/2 Runline for better odds and a push with a 1 run win.
Anaheim Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Angels (Lackey/Lowe) -117 Unit Value: 2
Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 9.5 (Sonnanstine/Gorzelanny) Unit Value: 2
Note: I do not play very many OVERS in Major League Baseball and that has worked out very well this year. I have on occasion when one of the teams on the field in the Pittsburgh Pirates and I will do that again for the contest today. One of the dynamics we have working for us today will be the Fact that these two squads have been using a lot of Bullpen Throwers in recent games. Certainly last night was no exception with 9 of them coming into the game in the 13 inning affair. Ironically, The Pitt Second Line Throwers did very well. That is an Aberation for them though as they have been overwhelmingly PITTiful this year. The last 10 games have been worse than worse as they have managed an ERA of 6.91 despite the good work in their last game. What this team lacks in Good Chunkers, they make up for in the way they can score runs. Perhaps that is why they are 49-26-4 OVER this year in all games played. Gorzy is not having the kind of year that he had hoped for and the reason for that is very simple. He does not have good command of his pitches and he is putting a lot of people onbase via the free pass. TB's Thrower has been both good and bad for the 2008 Campaign and while he has great potential, he does not usually go very deep into the game. That is a bit unusual for an AL Starter with the DH Rule in effect. Sonny has yet to get past the 5th Innings the last 6 times he has thrown, so the liklihood of seeing a weary DevilRay Bullpen is very good. That Pen has a Road ERA over 2 Runs Higher than at their homepark. Both of these squads are producing a lot of runs lately and Tampa Bay specifically is hammering lefties. We can Look at Gorzelanny Trends to find that he is 7-3 OVER last 10 at home, and 21-6 OVER the last 27 regardless of the venue. I am not a Trendy Person, but those speak for themselves and I will take the leap of faith that we will see a larger number of runs scored than the Oddsmakers think.
Smooth44
FLORIDA +115
ATLANTA +135
TAMPA BAY -110 PLAY OF THE DAY
ST. LOUIS +105
HOUSTON +150
LA-DODGERS +100
Ben Burns
MLB 3* Toronto Blue Jays
MLB 3* KC Royals
MLB 3* Milwaukee Brewers
MLB 3* Oakland A's
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Milwaukee/Minnesota Under 8
VEGAS RUNNER
CIN 1.5 (-140) vs CLE 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
Jeff Hochman
LAA Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: LAA Angels 10* MLB Interleague gem
10*LA Angels (Lackey/Lowe) Time Change to 1:10 PM PT John Lackey is "nails" off multiple team losses in his career and pitches great against the Dodgers. He is 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA, while holding Dodger hitters to a .169 batting average. Derrick Lowe likes pitching at night rather than in day games. His career ERA in day games is well over 5. Russell Martin is due for a "day off" and when he doesn't start at Catcher the Dodgers are just 4-10 over the last two seasons.