Dave Malinsky
Royals (RL) @ Rays (RL)
PICK: Rays (RL) 4*
After cashing a pair of easy tickets in the first two games of this series, with the Rays out-scoring the Royals 14-2, and out-hitting them 22-9, it should be no surprise at all that we are coming right back here. And given the pitching matchup, asking for a win by multiple runs is not asking much at all.
Sorry for being redundant on some of the details, but the bottom line is that the marketplace just refuses to properly catch up with a Tampa Bay team that is now on an incredible 31-6 run at home, despite the fact that 29 of those games came against teams that currently sport winning records. And with 20 of those wins coming by two runs or more, despite the quality of the competition, it shows us that a pick’em range for our methods today is more than fair.
If the Rays as a team have had to take on tough competition, naturally it means the same for their pitching staff, and James Shields has certainly not been an exception to that rule. There are 139 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far, and his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #10 (as always, we use On Base + Slugging as our barometer). That means that he is even better than the base numbers show, and from this mound he has been a stifling 4-1/2.08. Among those victims have been division leaders like the Cubs, Angels and White Sox, and he has also beaten the Red Sox twice in A.L. East play. His only loss? A tough 2-1 defeat vs. the Yankees that was hardly his fault.
Note just what the Shields vs. Scott Hochevar matchup means here - Tampa Bay has dominated those first two games despite having the bottom of the Ray rotation facing two of the top three Kansas City arms. Now the balance shifts, with Tampa Bay stepping to a higher level, and the mediocre Hochevar (5.70 ERA on the road) facing a difficult challenge. Hochevar is a ground ball pitcher that now has to deal with the faster playing surface here with a defense behind him that is nothing special, and the speed of the Rays on the base paths (John Buck is having an awful time throwing runners out) accentuates all of those problems.
Ben Burns
4* Astros/Braves Over 9
5* Arizona Diamondbacks
4* NY Yankees
Vegas Runner Freebie
PIT/MIL OVER 9.5 2*
If there wasn't a side wager that I like even more, this may have very well been our 3* TOTAL for Sunday's action and if the number stayed at 9, it probably still would have...This one sets up perfectly after such a low scoring game last night and we were actually ready to take a stand on OVER 10, and when I saw that they opened this one up at 9, it became even clearer what the oddsmakers were thinking...And so far, all of the books I've spoken too have said the same thing...The public perception is definately pointing to a low scoring game again, and they are backing it with cash...But all work points to an ez OVER this afternoon in Milwaukee, so lets see if we can CASH our "7th STRAIGHT FREE WAGER"
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
SD / Ariz Over
With Josh Banks of the Padres showing a 2.89 ERA so far this season, it is helping to give us some line value with this over. The fact is that Banks isnt pitching nearly as well as he was earlier this season and, as a result, we can step in and take advantage. Banks has lost each of his last three starts and he has a 5.74 ERA during this rough stretch. The Padres have now lost each of Banks last four starts and San Diegos best hope today is to give the right-hander plenty of run support and that they should do! Thats because the Pads will be matched up with a struggling Randy Johnson of the Diamondbacks. The veteran left-hander has not been able to get on track as he continues to get pounded in nearly all of his recent outings. Johnson is 0-6 with a 7.94 ERA in his last six starts. Overall, the Dbacks have lost each of Johnsons last eight starts. Even though he has great career numbers against the Padres he certainly is not the same pitcher he use to be and that is the key here. Johnson struggled in his home start versus the Padres earlier this season and San Diego has scored nine runs in winning the first two games of this series. Even though Johnson is 3-3 at Chase Field this season, he has a 7.17 ERA at home. This is why the Padres should once again enjoy success against him at Chase Field this afternoon. However, with Banks on the mound for the Padres, and a subpar bullpen backing him up, this one should be a back and forth high scoring match-up! The OVER is the play in Arizona on Sunday!
Alex Smart
2* Philadelphia Phillies
SAPKOWSKI
Premium
COL Rockies
DET Tigers
Free picks
CIN Reds
TB Rays
MADDUX SPORTS
3 units Milwaukee -152
3 units San Francisco -122
3 units Oakland +107
Fairway Jay
4* NY Mets
VEGAS RUNNER
SFG (-119) vs LOS 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
UNDER 140 S.ANT/WASH 2* WNBA PLAY of the DAY
Nite Owl Sports
Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: 3 units New York Mets +109
We like the Mets at plus odds here to beat Philly and take this series, based on Mets' recent scoring punch and a favorable pitching match-up in this game. First, the Mets match up well with Philly starter Kendrick, who they already crushed, 8-2, earlier this season, in Philly. But that was not just a coincidence, given that Kendrick is a contact and groundball pitcher, and Mets have been pounding those types TY (5 RPG vs contact pitchers and 5.7 RPG vs GB pitchers). For that reason, as well as the occasional unpredictability of Mets starter Perez, we recommend putting most of your Mets money on the Mets over 4.5 on individual team totals line (in other words, betting that the Mets will score 5> runs, regardless of how many runs Philly scores or even who wins the game).This should not be too daunting of a task for the Mets, who have plated 7> runs in 6 of their last 11 games, including 9 in saturday's game, in which they shredded the Philly bullpen for 6 runs in last two innings to break open a close game. Mets are also better away in day games (10-7) than away at night (11-19).
Mets starter Oliver Perez has held Philly at bay not only TY (having already pitched 11 scoreless innings against them, including 6 in Philly), but also throughout his career pitching in Philly, where he has a 3-1 record. So although Philly hits LHPs well at home (6.3 RPG), the fact that they struggle vs power pitchers like Perez (hitting only 3.8 RPG against them) partially explains their fultility against him so f ar TY.However, before we get too carried away singing the praises of Perez, we should also mention that he throws in a real "stinker' once in awhile, and you never know quite when he will let you down. For that reason, we limit this pick to three units, and we repeat that if you have access to individual team totals lines, we believe the better betting angle is to bet Mets over 4.5 runs for 2-3 units and Mets for one or two units to win the game.
Mike Rose
3* Rampage / Rush Under 114
Tim Trushel
20* Featured Play: Texas / Baltimore Over 9.5
VEGAS RUNNER
SFG (-119) vs LOS 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
TAM -1.5 (+100) vs KAN 1* RL WAGER *
PHI / 953 NYM Over 10 SportBet
Analysis:
* 1* TOTAL * (OVER -115)
TOR (+116) vs ANA 2* ML WAGER
ANA / TOR Over 8.5 2* TOTAL
CHC (+112) vs STL 1* ML WAGER
UNDER 140 S.ANT/WASH 2* WNBA PLAY of the DAY
KBHOOPS
5 units Oakland A's +100 **POD**
5 units Minnesota +105
5 units Washington +190
5 units Kansas City +200
5 units San Diego +140
Frank Johnson
KC Royals vs TB Rays
Selection: Royals +185
Pit Pirates vs Mil Brewers
Selection: Pirates +140