Matty O'Shea
MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
LOS / FLA Over 8.5
Analysis: If the Dodgers are going to avoid a three-game sweep at home by the Marlins on Sunday, they will need to break out offensively against Florida's Andrew Miller. LA is hitting .265 against lefties this season and has scored 25 runs combined in the last four games in which a southpaw has started for the opposition. Three of those games were wins, and Miller has seen 11 runs scored in each of his last two starts - both on the road. Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley is coming off a rough outing that saw him surrender six runs in 5.1 innings of a 9-3 home loss to Atlanta last time out, and he could be wearing down as the first half of the season comes to an end. The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams, so bet the OVER again here as my Single Dime NL Total Play O' the Day.
MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
SFG (+138) vs CHC
Analysis: You may think I'm crazy to go against the Cubs, who have not lost a game at home with Ryan Dempster on the mound. They are a perfect 11-0 in Dempster's starts at Wrigley Field this season, but the team's bullpen is a mess after Carlos Marmol nearly blew Saturday's eventual 8-7 victory in 11 innings. Dempster is just 2-6 lifetime against the Giants with a 4.34 ERA, and Chicago closer Kerry Wood is out with a finger blister, which could makes things interesting late in this one again. San Francisco's Tim Lincecum also is no slouch on the road this season, going 7-1 in 10 starts with a stellar 2.23 ERA. The value on Lincecum is just took good in this spot, so back the Giants as my Single Dime NL Underdog Play O' the Day.
MLB RunLine Triple-Dime Bet
NYM -1.5 (+120) vs COL
Analysis: The Mets have the opportunity to head into the All-Star break on a nine-game winning streak, and they will be at worst a half-game back of first place in the National League East with a victory here. That's quite an accomplishment for this squad, which has endured quite a roller coaster ride in the first half of the season, including the firing of former manager Willie Randolph. During the team's current eight-game winning streak, they have won six by two runs or more. In addition, the four losses for Colorado in Mark Redman's starts this season have been decided by an average of four runs per game. New York is hitting .282 against lefties at home and has won the last six starts for Mike Pelfrey, who has seen each of those wins decided by at least two runs. Bet the Mets on the runline to win this one big and close out the first half with a bang as my Triple Dime First-Half MLB TV Play O' the Year.
MLB RunLine Single-Dime Bet
OAK -1.5 (+115) vs ANA
Analysis: Oakland ace Justin Duchsherer is a perfect 6-0 lifetime against the Angels with an outstanding 1.28 ERA, and he is also 7-1 in eight home starts with a 1.23 ERA. All seven of Duchsherer's home wins have been decided by two runs or more. LA's pitching change of Dustin Moseley (1-3, 7.85 ERA) for Joe Saunders (12-5, 3.07) has made this worth betting for me, so take the A's on the runline as my Single Dime AL Value Play O' the Day.
SEABASS
20 Cin
20 Sea
20 NYY
50 StL
100 Dodgers
LT Profits
2* Cleveland Indians
2* Mariners/Royals Over 9.5
2* Florida Marlins
NSA
20* UNDER 8.5 TB/Clev
10* OVER 8.5 NYY/Tor
10* OVER 9 O's/Bos
10* Kansas City -
10* White Sox -
10* UNDER 7.5 Atl/SD
VEGAS RUNNER
CWS (-107) vs TEX 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
Indian Cowboy
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
Pick: 3 units (Normal) RUNLINE:Oakland Athletics -1.5 (+119)
research:
Duch, going to the all-start game did win his last start but fail to cover the run-line as the big chalk favorite at home against Silva, Mosely went just 2 innings against Oakland in his last appearance against them and gave up 7 hits, he has struggled this season overall, Duch has pitched 7 straight consecutive starts and beat the Angels on the road this year with a 1.8 ERA and given that Oakland comes off losing 1-4 yesterday, I can see Oak town likely pulling the run-line here today.
write-up:
Oakland lost yesterday as they had the weaker pitcher it seems with Eveland facing Santana, not such much today with Duch who was the center peice of their trade as they sent Harden to the Cubs, this kid is flat out great and the A's are just 5 wins away from the Angels so taking this 2nd of 3 games is a big game for them, Angels are 1-5 in Moseley's last 6 starts and A's are 7-0 when Duch faces a team with a winning record meaning that this kid shows up when facing tougher teams as he is also 7-1 when facing a total of 7-8.5, meaning in pitcher's duels, his team has the edge.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays - Sunday July 13, 2008 1:07 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) MONEYLINE: New York Yankees -130
research:
Pettitte is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA on the road and he has had 3 starts including his last one, where he didn't yield a single run, as he went 8 inns against TB at home and gave up just 4 hits, Burnett has struggled in back to back starts giving up 19 hits in less than 13 innings, he did show up against the Yankees in his last start on the road and won outright as a dog beating Mussina 5-2. Lean on the Yanks here as they also have a bit of revenge on Burnett as well from the earlier loss at home - Keep in mind: The Yanks only have 3 more wins than the bluejays this year.
write-up:
Pettitte is clearly the better pitcher here, he went 8 inns against tampa bay at home and gave up just 4 hits and 0 runs, that itself says a lot, typically I'm not a fan of road chalk, but the Yanks have won 6 of 7 Pettite's last 7 ballgames, the only loss being Boston, Burnett was fortunate to pick up a win in his last start gainst Olson of the Orioles, he beat the Yanks earlier this year in Yankee Stadium, Yankees have a score to settle against him as he has given up 19 hits in his last 2 starts. Bluejays are just 2-8 against lefties of late and Pettitte is 11-3 as a road favorite of late as well.
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers - Sunday July 13, 2008 3:05 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) MONEYLINE: Texas Rangers -104
research:
White Sox have won 54 games which many do not realize as compared to last year's dismal season this season has turned out to be far better, Contreras has been horrible over his last 4 starts including giving up 10 hits on the road at KC but still managing to help the whitesox win the game, and give Matt Harisson some credit for pitching very well in his first major league start at home against the Angels which is always a tough feat, heck, he gave up just 5 hits in 7 inns and 2 runs beating Saunders 3-2 as a +115 dog. Contreras has given up 33 hits in his last 15 innings on the road, lean on the rangers here especially since they lost 7-9 yesterday to danks.
write-up:
This is the write-up where I just get to the grunt of why I like a play. Rangers come off a tough 2 run loss against Danks, they are on the bounce-back, whitesox face a pitcher they have to face, Contreras got lucky on the road last time out beating the royals as he has given up 33 hits in his last 15 innings on the road, it will take the white sox at least 5 inns to get used to harrison's pitches in my opinion, White Sox are 2-9 when the total is set at this range and the Rangers are 5-1 when facing a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.50.
Players of America
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
The Play: Detroit Tigers -135.0
Star Value: 5* (50 Units)
Writeup: Our first losing day in weeks came with a 1-2 disappointment on Saturday as the Tigers fell short late and the total pick was out of the picture early, but we're picking things up right where we left off with this one. We've been on a furious terror in bases as of late, and don't plan on slowing down one bit heading into the 2008 All-Star Break.
Alright, probably a big sigh and an eye roll from everyone out there when this pick popped up, but bear with us for one second here. Disregard this being a washed out, oversized, meaningless write up, because we're stating the facts here.not some influential BS to sell you on so hear us out. Throw everything you've learned out the window for right now and let's just get a few things straight. Don't think for one second we're chasing down a team that has lost a couple straight (which they have), or following some incredible home series system/trend.because that's just not the case right now. This is baseball and unlike any other sport out there, you can not wager according to the past, present or future of a team's win losses or you'll find yourself in a very deep hole.we all know that. However, this one lines up very nicely and just happens to be a great situation to place a wager.
We rode the Tigers last night as a 3* pick and they nearly mounted a victory in a late comeback but fell a bit short. We're jumping back on this train and this is why. This squad isn't the same one that lost eight, ten, twelve games straight (whatever it was) earlier this season. They actually are a completely different one, period. These guys are in a semi-pennant race for something special in the Central and these mid to late season series with in-division opponents are vital.
Getting to the match up, the Twins have owned the Tigers so far in this road series swiping three of the four so far. Could they sweep? Absolutely, its baseball.but we don't feel the chance is very good here. The Tigers have showed life in every game in the series, but have just fell short. Pitching has been shaky at times, but Detroit's starters have been notorious for that this season.
Justin "Verly" Verlander toes the rubber Sunday afternoon at Comerica Park at 1:05PM EST for Detroit with something to prove. Justin is 2-0 his last three times out with a no decision and has been absolutely impeccable. It seems that he has gotten that touch back that we saw so many times last season including his famous no hitter. In his last three starts, the righty has thrown nearly 19 innings and given up just 14 hits. He holds a WHIP of 1.22 and boasts an ERA of 2.88. He get's some solid run support in his outings, too. When Verlander finishes his work, the Tigers bullpen has been taking over and doing a damn good job. In the last three games, the Detroit bullpen sports an AL Central best 2.62 ERA in 30+ innings. There is some great value on this team in this spot. The last time Verlander threw against the Twins it was May 25 in a 6-1 loss. A little revenge factor here. Odds makers decided to open the bidding on the Tigers that day at -194.quite pricey for an unproven team at the time if you as us. Here we are in Game 4 of the series, so why the drastically lower price? Minnesota is playing great ball, but Detroit has been lately too. Expect some squares to be eating up the Twins value for a sweep Sunday, but we're not buying it. Offensively, Edgar Renteria's status has been updated to "probable" on Sunday as he is coping with a sore hamstring. This addition would put a little more hop in the step of this Tiger's team as they've been a bit more banged up than they would have liked lately.
Right hander Nick Blackburn will be putting his fingers on the seams to start for the Twins. Nick is 1-0 his last three starts and has a season ERA of 3.75. Like the Tigs, don't think the Twins don't have their share of critical injuries too. Second baseman Matt Tolbert and right fielder Michael Cuddyer won't be returning to the lineup anytime soon, both are scheduled for MRI's and possible surgery. Not a huge hit to the team as they've adapted well, but are key losses for sure. The last ten times the Twins and Tigers have met, Minnesota holds a less than impressive ERA of nearly 5.00 while Detroit is under 3.75. The infamous Ron Kulpa is designated to call the balls and strikes and boy does this guy love action. His events average over 2.5 homeruns and nearly 9 runs a game. Back to the teams, the Tigers have a pretty good key-in on Mr. Blackburn. Career wise, Miguel Cabrera has shelled the kid hitting over .665 with a pair of doubles, Curtis Granderson at .500 with a double, Carlos Guillen at .333 and Raburn an even .500 with just four looks.
Stats, history, trends and all of those goodies are great.but spotting value and exploiting it is what wins. You might be scratching your head saying "-135 is value?" On Sunday afternoon's matchup in Detroit.absolutely. Lay the small amount of chalk here, it'll be worth it. Be confident turning this one in, too, and be sure to give a smile when collecting. We're laying 50 units on a 5* wager with the Detroit Tigers today for a final big cash before a three day break.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Tigers are 19-6 in their last 25 home games.
-The Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 games on grass.
-The Tigers are 20-9 in their last 29 overall.
Detroit 6, Minnesota 2
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Play: Under 9.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: For our second and final game we're zoning in on another total in which we've been pretty successful with as of late. This one is between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. There was a very similar match up just a couple days ago which we cashed on in Toronto between these two and this one is virtually identical.
The well-known, highly touted Andy Pettitte is schedule to get the start the New York Sunday afternoon and he comes in with pretty good numbers. Andy is 10-6 on the season and has thrown a whopping 120 innings. He has an ERA under 4.00. Even more attractive, Pettitte has a 4:15 ration on overs to unders this season. He has thrown 19 total games and stayed under 15.pretty solid. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, two typical starters for the Yanks, will remain on the DL hindering the offensive explosion of this squad just a bit.
On the other side, right hander A.J. Burnett will start the game. He has a little higher ERA than Andy at 5.20, but remarkably also loves to stay under the total. A.J. has thrown 20 games already this season and stayed under more than half of those. Like the Yankees, the Jays have a few offensive injuries which will keep some of the usual power bats sidelined. Alex Rios, Vernon Wells and Shannon Stewart are all out indefinitely for Sunday's match up.
As we look at the overall figures with these two teams this year, they tend to stay under the total a lot more than over. New York has an O/U ratio this season of 32-57 and Toronto is equally impressive at 38-40. In their last ten games, NYY has stayed under seven times and Toronto five. Fieldin Culbreth will be calling the strikes and he too this season has kept games under the total five more times than over.
Trends and knowing these popular pitches set the stage for this play. Break it out and lay 10 units for a 1* on the UNDER in Toronto this Sunday before the All-Star break.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Yankees last 10 on field turf.
-The UNDER is 9-1 in Pettitte's last 10 road starts.
-The UNDER is 26-10 in the Blue Jays last 36 Sunday games.
-The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings of these two teams.
New York 3, Toronto 1
Ben Burns
5* Detroit Tigers
4* Yankees/Jays Under 8.5
VEGAS RUNNER
WAS / HOU Under 8.5 1* TOTAL
Bob Akmens
4* Cardinals/Pirates Under 9.5
7* Astros/Nationals Under 9
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
5000* ELITE BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Verlander -142
KBHOOPS
5 units Phillies -150 (sorry for the high juice) Just can't pass this game up **POD**
5 units Atl/LAD U/7.5
5 units Kansas City -120
5 units Pittsburgh +105
LARRY NESS
My Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 4:10 ET.
The Dodgers visited Miami from April 29 through May 1 and came away with a three-game sweep of the Marlins. The Marlins have "returned the favor" this weekend, by winning the first three games of this four-game series at Dodger Stadium. Can LA avoid the dreaded four-game home sweep? Sure they can and I expect they will. LA has lost two of the games in extra-innings (Thursday and Saturday) plus lost on Friday by a 3-1 score. The good news though (if there can be any?), is that despite the three losses, the Dodgers (45-49) are just two games back of the D'backs (47-47) in the NL West. Florida's recent surge (Marlins have won six of their last seven) has brought them within a half-game of the Phillies in the NL East and has helped them keep pace with the red-hot Mets, who won their eighth straight game yesterday. While there's no denying Florida's recent "mo jo," today's starter (Andrew Miller) has not been sharp. Miller struggled in six April starts to open the '08 season (9.12 ERA) but then found some rhythm, allowing two ERs or less in seven of his next nine starts. However, his troubles have returned, as he hasn't won any of his last four starts (he's 0-3 and the team is 0-4), posting a 5.91 ERA. For the season, Miller is 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA in 19 starts (team is 7-12) and he'll be looking for just his second win in his last 10 starts, today. He'll be opposed by LA's Chad Billingsley. Billingsley opened the '08 season with two relief appearances and then went 0-4 with a 6.87 ERA in his first four starts. However, in the last two of those four losses, he had 21 Ks in just 11 innings. The team felt he was "on the verge" and the Dodgers were right. Over his next seven starts, Billingsley allowed two ERs or less six times, posting a 1.80 ERA. He did run into some tough going in back-to-back starts on June 6 and 11 (12 IP / 15 hits / 8 ERs / 6.00 ERA) but he's since won four of his last five outings, posting a 2.41 ERA with 33 Ks in 31.2 innings. He enters this game 8-8 with a 3.38 ERA on the year (leads the team in wins) and doing the math, has posted a 2.65 ERA over his last 14 starts. Better yet for LA in this game, Billingsley has dominated the Marlins in his short career, going 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 26 innings over five appearances (four starts / team is 3-1) against them. No sweep here! Las Vegas Insider on the LA Dodgers.
Lenny Del Genio's Sunday Night Game of the Month **11-0 Sunday Run**
Play on NY Mets at 8:05 ET. Almost a no-brainer here, right? Mets have won eight straight and have shutout three of their previous five opponents. That includes the Rockies last night, whom they look to sweep right out of Shea this evening. After firing Willie Randolph last month, the Metropolitans stood at one game below .500 (34-35) and were 6.5 games behind Philadelphia. Entering Sunday, they are 50-44 and trail the Phillies by just a half game. A win here not only gives the team its longest win streak in eight years, but coupled with a Philly loss, would give them first place in the NL East for the first time since 4/19 when they were 10-6. Then, we have the fact that this is a battle between not only teams, but pitchers, heading in opposite directions. The Rockies' Mark Redman has not won since 4/16 and has a road ERA of 9.00. He's been so bad that back on 5/11 he was demoted to Triple A Colorado Springs, but unfortunately that didn't help as he's allowed six runs and 12 hits in 11 innings (two starts - both Rockies losses) since returning to the big show. Meanwhile, the Mets' Mike Pelfrey has been on fire, just like the rest of the New York staff. In his last outing, he outpitched the Giants' Tim Lincecum by throwing seven scoreless innnings (7-0 NYM win). Overall, Pelfrey has won five straight starts, including a 3-1 win in Colorado where he again allowed no runs. Then, we have the fact that Colorado has lost seven of eight here at Shea Stadium. Of course, the defending NL champs are pretty much horrible whenever the play outside of Coors Field as the carry in a 13-34 road mark into this one. NY Mets are our Sunday Night Game of the Month.
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
FIRST HALF BASEBALL GAME OF THE YEAR
Philadelphia w/Hamels -145
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Boston w/Matsuzaka -185