STU FINER
Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
We like the Yankees here tonight against the Athletics. We know that Justin Ducscherer is on the hill for Oakland but we look for him to come back to earth in the second half of the season.
The Yankees were able to pull out the victory yesterday and we look for them to do the same here today at home. The Yankees send Andy Pettitte to the hill and it is now his time of the year. Andy has lost just two games in his last ten starts.
The Yankees have begun to roll and that is in big part due to the fact that Robinson Cano has caught fire. Most of us out there know that Cano isn’t a .250 hitter. Look for him to continue to swing the bat well.
New York Yankees (-)
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
We don’t see the same type of game as we had last night. We will have two starters that will do a much better job of pitching here today in Baltimore. We like the Tigers behind their ace to get the job done. Both of these starting pitchers have been throwing the ball well as of late.
One starter has really been dominant over his last few starts. That starter is Justin Verlander. If you look at Justin’s record and statistics you would think he hasn’t pitched that well. Well Justin did start off the season slow, he was experiencing dead arm. His last three starts he has been more than healthy.
Justin has won his last three games. All told he has pitched 20 innings while allowing just 14 hits and a few runs. We see what the Tigers offense can do, now behind their ace they will put it all together.
Detroit Tigers (-)
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have showed a lot in their few games since the all-star break. Tampa has come out and not only won the first two games since the all-star break but they have beaten two top pitchers. First they were able to score a few runs off of A.J. Burnett. Then yesterday they came on and beat Roy Halladay and held on for the win.
Tonight the Rays will be able to take this third game and they will sweep the series. The Jays send John Parrish to the hill. Make no mistake about it Parrish is a relief pitcher. His numbers are good but this is a guy that has made twelve career starts in his eight year career. Even if John throws well he will not be able to pitch deep in to the game. He has pitched more than six innings just one time all season. Look for Tampa to get the sweep at home, this price is very fair.
Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Last night was just one loss and we look for the Sox to bounce back in a hurry. This is a team that has played so well this season folks. They do not get the credit they should, but that is just fine for us.
The White Sox are one of the few teams in all of baseball to be ranked high in both pitching and hitting. In fact it goes much further than that. The White Sox have the second best pitching staff statistically speaking. Their team ERA is just 3.60 and they have more quality starters from their starters than any team in the league.
In edition to their great pitching, they average close to five runs per game and are fifth in the league in runs scored. They have also hit 130 home runs which ranks third in all of baseball. It just shows us how balanced the Sox are. Look for them to take the series here in Chicago.
Chicago White Sox (-)
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
How good are the Minnesota Twins? This is a team that is the real deal in every sense of the word. This isn’t a fluke folks, this isn’t a mirage what they are doing. This is a team that is now 55-42 on the season. At home they are better than that folks.
Just look at their last two games. What have they not done to impress you or to prove to Vegas they are for real? They keep giving us these cookie cutter lines and we keep jumping all over them. The Twins are now 34-18 at home this season. Last night the Twins were just awesome. They scored thirteen runs in the final five innings. All told the Twinkies scored fourteen runs and pounded out sixteen hits. The night before they scored six runs and won in a white-washing 6-0.
Scott Baker is 6-2 on the season and is more than capable of winning especially at home. Both teams will score runs, but the Twins will find a way to win as they do most of the time.
Minnesota Twins (-)
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Cliff Lee’s amazing start of the season will continue here tonight. That is right folks, this is a guy that hasn’t done it with smoke and mirrors. This is a guy that has deserved each and every one of his victories this season. Cliff has been great all season no matter where he has pitched.
Sure Cliff is 5-0 at home with a low ERA, but how about his numbers away from Cleveland? Is there a pitcher better on the road this season than Cliff? He has seven road victories to just two road losses. He also has an ERA of just 2.77. Cliff has allowed just five home-runs all season to go along with his great WHIP.
There are plenty of reasons why he started the all-star game, you didn’t think they just picked him out of a hat do you? Take the Indians on the road they proved yesterday they can win there no problem.
Cleveland Indians (-)
Boston Red Sox at LA Angels
We like the Angels to go for the sweep here tonight. Don’t fall in to the trap, don’t think that the Red Sox have to get a game. The Angels are just as good a baseball team as the Boston Red Sox. If you won’t take our word for it, look at their records.
The Red Sox are two different teams this season. There are the home Red Sox, that pound the baseball and pitch to a top five ERA. They are a home team that is 25 games over the .500 mark.
Then there is the other Boston Red Sox team. A Red Sox road team that is now more than ten games less than .500 on the season. They don’t pitch as well and they are just an average offense away from the friendly confines of Fenway park.
The Angels were able to win yesterday even though Josh Beckett was on the mound. The Angels will scrap together enough runs off the knuckle-baller and win the game and sweep the series here tonight.
LA Angels (-)
National League
Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins
We like the Phillies to bounce back tonight. Philadelphia came out flat yesterday and did not play well against the Marlins. Tonight we expect play like they did in the first game of the series and take care of business.
The Phillies are one of the best teams on the road this season. Philadelphia is 26-22 on the road this season. Don’t look at that number and sneeze on it. Considering how dominant teams have been at home, 26-22 is more than solid. The Phillies send their best pitcher to the mound tonight as well.
Cole has just nine wins but he has pitched better than that. The Phillies are 13-7 in his twenty starts this season. Winning at a 65% clip is something that can’t be ignored. Cole has just filthy no-hit stuff. 142 innings this season and he has allowed just 112 hits. Those numbers are incredible. Just compare his totals to any of the best pitchers in the league and you will see he is even a cut above them.
Philadelphia Phillies (-)
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
This line is just too good to pass up for the home team tonight. There is no way we will pass up getting the games best young pitcher as a low line favorite. Edinson Volquez has been great all season. There hasn’t been a better pitcher at home this season either folks. That is why we really don’t understand this line, we feel Vegas has it all wrong.
Volquez overall this season is 12-3 and he is actually 12-2 as a starting pitcher. At home he has been un-touchable. Volquez is 6-0 on the season at home with a 2.43 ERA. What is there not to love about him?
The Mets winning streak is over and they haven’t played well since that loss. They played a sloppy ball game last night and we don’t expect them to get it back tonight against an ace like Edinson.
Cincinnati Reds (-)
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
We know that this line is high, but we don’t mind. The line is supposed to be high. The Washington Nationals are the worst team in all of baseball folks. This is not a term we just throw around, calling a team the worst in the league is something we don’t take lightly. The Nats are exactly that though.
Sure Washington was able to get one yesterday, they aren’t going to go winless the entire season. They are a team that has a shot to loss 100 games. On the road the Nationals are a brutal 16-32 on the road.
The Nationals are just 2-10 in their last twelve road games. Atlanta has always played well against Washington. They are actually 33-14 in their last forty seven meetings. Look for them to improve on those numbers here tonight.
Atlanta Braves (-)
Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros
We like the Astros to take care of business once again here tonight. The Astros have been very impressive against the Cubs so far in this series. They won a tight ball game two to one in the first game of their series. Last night they won another low scoring affair.
The Astros were able to win 4-1 yesterday. Not only did they win the game, but they beat all-star Carlos Zambrano. Carlos actually hit better (home run) then he pitched. The Astros got three runs in the first three innings and never looked back. Jose Valverde picked up his 25th save.
Ryan Dempster hasn’t pitched well on the road. Ryan is 10-1 at home with an ERA under three. No doubt that is fantastic. On the road though Ryan has yet to win a single game. Ryan is win-less and has an ERA over 4. Don’t be surprised when the Astros win this game.
Houston Astros (+)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
We love the Rockies to get the job done tonight behind their ace. Believe it or not the Rockies are actually rolling. You have heard us say before that the Rockies aren’t out of this NL West. The NL West is the worst division in all of a baseball. The Rockies were able to go on an incredible run last season, we don’t know if they can do that, but guess what? They don’t have too.
The Rockies still have a big home-field advantage. They have struggled away from Coors but does that really matter tonight? They are 28-21 at home this season, not bad for a team that has been hit with the injury bug badly.
Aaron Cook was fantastic in the all-star game and he will be great again tonight. Cook leads the Rockies in all major pitching categories, including: wins, ERA and whip. Look for him to shut down the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh hasn’t hit well in this series and they won’t begin tonight.
Colorado Rockies(-)
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
Just like a similar line in the New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds game, this line is too good to pass up. When you can get an ace, at home, for cheap you have to jump on it. We aren’t saying it will win every time but over the long run the investments will come through in fine fashion.
Tim is 11-2 on the season with an ERA of just 2.57. In his last start before the break he was dominant as usual. Against the best NL team in the league he was brilliant. Eight innings pitched just six hits and one earned run. Also throw in nine strikeouts to just one walk. His strikeouts are only part of his game. His location has been great. How about just seven home runs allowed all season? 129 innings and just seven gopher balls. Look for the Giants to win again tonight as they did last night.
San Francisco Giants (-)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
We know these two teams are very similar. Both teams even send out a sinker-ball pitcher tonight. A couple advantages for the Diamondbacks though. First off they are coming off of a big win yesterday. A game they were up 3-0 early and held on to win 3-2.
The Arizona Diamondbacks also have the “better” sinker-baller pitcher here tonight. Lowe is just 7-8 on the season with an ERA over 3.84. Brandon Webb on the other hand as a 13-4 mark. He also has pitched 131 innings and has an ERA of 3.37.
The Dodgers also haven’t proved they can win consistently on the road. Sure they won one game in this series, but their record is still terrible on the road. They are also without their closer, look for Arizona to win a tight ball game.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (52-46) at Cincinnati (48-51)
The Mets send red-hot right-hander Mike Pelfrey (8-6, 3.64 ERA) to the mound at Great American Ball Park to wrap up a four-game series against the Reds. New York, which was dealt a 5-2 loss Friday night to halt a 10-game winning streak, suffered a 7-2 setback Saturday night. However, the Mets are on a 5-0 run in Sunday games and are 8-2 against losing teams, and they’ve won seven straight with Pelfrey on the hill.
Cincinnati, which will counter with All-Star Edinson Volquez (12-3, 2.29), is on a 6-1 streak at home and is 7-1 against the N.L. East and 14-5 at home against winning teams. In addition, the Reds are on a 10-3 tear behind Volquez and are 9-1 when Volquez faces a winning team and 7-2 with Volquez at home.
Today’s game wraps up the second series of the season between these two teams, with each team having won three games, and New York is 7-4 in the last 11 contests.
Pelfrey has won his last six starts, including four on the road, and hasn’t been dealt a losing decision in nearly two months – since a 7-3 home setback to Florida on May 26. Last Sunday against Colorado, he threw eight shutout innings, scattering six hits, in a 7-0 home rout. In fact, the 24-year-old has allowed just one run over 22 innings in his last three starts, for a minuscule 0.41 ERA.
The 25-year-old Volquez has gone 5-1 with two no-decisions (both Reds losses) in his last eight starts, getting the win in his last two outings. On July 12 at Milwaukee, he yielded just two runs (one earned) on six hits in seven innings in an 8-2 victory. In 19 starts this year, he’s given up three earned runs or less 18 times, including two earned runs or less on 15 occasions.
Pelfrey is 4-2 with bit heavy 5.56 ERA on the road this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three appearances (two starts) against Cincinnati. On May 10 at home, he allowed two runs on eight hits in six innings, but he got little bullpen or offensive support in a 7-1 loss. Meanwhile, Volquez is a sterling 6-0 with a 2.43 ERA in nine home starts this year and will make his first career appearance against the Mets, having pitched the past two seasons for Texas.
For New York, the under is 5-1 overall, 5-0 with Pelfrey throwing on Sunday and 8-0 with Pelfrey facing a losing team, but the over is 7-4-1 in the Mets’ last 12 on the highway. The over for Cincinnati is 12-4-1 on Sunday, 7-3 in series finales and 5-1-1 in Volquez’s last seven starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Oakland (51-46) at N.Y. Yankees (52-45)
The Athletics send out All-Star right-hander Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA) to wrap up a three-game weekend set in the Bronx against the Yankees and southpaw Andy Pettitte (10-7, 4.03). On Saturday, the Yankees took a 4-3, 12-inning victory when Jose Molina was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded. The Athletics have lost four straight games and five of their last seven, and they are 2-9 against left-handers and 0-5 in the third game of a series. But with Duchscherer throwing, they are on a 6-2 run overall and are 7-1 against winning teams.
New York is on a 6-0 spree at Yankee Stadium and is 13-3 against the A.L. West, 39-12 in Game 3 of a series and 21-7 in Sunday contests. Furthermore, the Yanks are 7-1 with Pettitte in the third game of a series, 6-2 in his last eight starts overall and a lengthy 66-27 behind Pettitte at home.
The Yankees lead the season series between these two teams 4-1, but the A’s are 6-3 in their last nine meetings in New York and 6-1 when Pettitte starts for the Yankees.
Duchscherer is on a 6-1 streak in his last eight starts, getting a no-decision last Sunday at home in a 4-3 loss to the Angels. In that outing, he allowed two runs on five hits in 7 2/3 innings. Duchscherer has given up two earned runs or less in 10 straight starts, going at least six innings in all 10, including a complete-game two-hitter in a 2-0 home win over Seattle on July 8.
Pettitte is 7-2 with two no-decisions in his last 11 outings, though he’s alternated wins and losses in his last four starts. Last Sunday at Toronto, he gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings of a 4-1 loss. The veteran lefty has gone at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 starts.
Despite a 2.53 road ERA, Duchscherer is just 3-4 in seven starts on the highway this season. He’s 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA in eight career appearances (one start) against the Yankees, getting his win in an 8-4 home victory June 11, when he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings. Pettitte is 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and he’s 9-5 with a 3.42 ERA in 18 career starts against Oakland. That includes a 4-1 win at Oakland on June 12, in which he allowed one run on five hits in eight innings, his first win over the A’s in his last seven attempts for the Yanks.
The under is on a 14-3-1 tear for the Yankees and a 17-5 run for the Athletics. For Oakland, the under is also 6-0 in roadies, 8-1 on the road against left-handers, 8-1 against winning teams and 4-0 behind Duchscherer. The under for New York is 5-0-1 at home, 5-1 in the third game of a series, 10-1 with Pettitte making a Game 3 start and 13-3 in his last 16 home starts. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND and UNDER
Boston (57-42) at L.A. Angels (59-38)
Right-hander Jon Garland (8-6, 4.20 ERA) will take the ball for the Angels when they attempt to sweep their three-game home series against the defending World Series champion Red Sox. Los Angeles, which opened the series Friday night with an 11-3 rout, rallied from a 2-0, seventh-inning deficit to post a 4-2 victory Saturday. The Angels, who have won five of their last six games, are 39-16 at home against winning teams, 6-1 in their last seven home outings and 5-1 with Garland going against an A.L. East opponent.
Boston, which will counter with right-hander Tim Wakefield (6-6, 3.60), is 0-8 behind the knuckleballer on the road against winning teams, 1-10 overall with Wakefield facing winning teams and 1-6 in his last seven road starts. The Red Sox are also 2-9 in their last 11 road games – including losing their last four -- and 3-10 against the A.L. West. A lone positive: Boston is 10-3 in the third game of a series.
L.A. leads the season series against Boston 4-1, having won four in a row, though the Sox won nine of 13 against the Angels last season, including a sweep in the divisional playoff round.
The Angels are 2-5 in Garland’s last six starts, and Garland has alternated wins and losses in his last four starts, getting pounded for seven runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings in a 9-2 loss at Oakland on July 11. That followed four solid starts, in which Garland yielded eight earned runs in 28 innings (2.57 ERA), including a six-hit complete game in a 7-1 victory July 6.
Wakefield is 3-5 with three no-decisions in his last 11 starts, though he was solid in his last outing July 12 against Baltimore. He allowed just one run on two hits in seven innings of a 12-1 rout. Wakefield’s starts have been steady, as he’s gone seven innings or more in eight of his last nine games, yielding no more than three earned runs per game throughout.
Garland is 3-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and he’s 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA in 13 career appearances (10 starts) against Boston. On April 23 at Boston, he allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings to get the win in a 6-4 L.A. victory. Wakefield has a rash of no-decisions on the road this year, going 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 starts, and he’s 9-11 with a 4.79 ERA in 27 career appearances (22 starts) against the Angels.
The under for Los Angeles is 9-2-2 in Garland’s last 13 starts, 7-0-1 behind Garland at home and 36-18-3 in the Angels’ last 57 games overall. For Boston, the under is 6-2 against the A.L. West, 14-3-3 with Wakefield a road underdog and 9-3-2 with Wakefield on the road against winning teams. However, in this rivalry, the over is 9-4-1 in the last 13 meetings, 5-1 with Wakefield starting against the Angels and 4-1 at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL
Cleveland at Seattle
Cleveland starter Cliff Lee brings a 7-2, 2.77 road mark to Seattle against a Mariner team that is just 6-8 as a home underdog between +100 and +125. Cleveland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has Cleveland favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, JULY 20
Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.173; Florida (Johnson) 13.813
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 17.204; Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.949
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under
Game 905-906: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Perez) 13.848; Atlanta (Reyes) 15.113
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Over
Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.319; Houston (Backe) 14.153
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); Under
Game 909-910: San Diego at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Baek) 14.626; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.342
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Over
Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 12.919; Colorado (Cook) 15.129
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-200); Under
Game 913-914: Milwaukee at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.696; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.182
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over
Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lowe) 13.992; Arizona (Webb) 15.511
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-140); Over
Game 917-918: Oakland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 15.699; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.818
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Under
Game 919-920: Detroit at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.465; Baltimore (Burres) 16.702
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over
Game 921-922: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Parrish) 15.570; Tampa Bay (Jackson) 14.418
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Under
Game 923-924: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.887; White Sox (Danks) 15.600
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-160); Over
Game 925-926: Texas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 14.467; Minnesota (Baker) 16.651
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Over
Game 927-928: Cleveland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 16.744; Seattle (Silva) 15.401
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Over
Game 929-930: Boston at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.389; LA Angels (Garland) 15.418
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Over
Alex Smart
Philadelphia Phillies -144
The Philadelphia Phillies, lead the National League East division, and will primed to keep their grip on that spot as they prepare to take down their hosts the Florida Marlins in the deciding tilt in a 3 game set .
With emerging pitching star Cole Hamels (9-6, 3.15 ERA) on the hill for the Phillies they very much look like a viable bet. The southpaw is in top form as is evident by recording a 1.99 ERA in his last 22 2-3 innings of work, spanning 3 starts. If for some reason he falters, he is backed by one of baseball top bullpens (2.41 ERA).
Meanwhile his pitching opponent form the Marlins , Josh Johnson (0-5, 5.40 ERA) will make his second start since returning off the DL. In limited work last season, the right hander allowed 17 runs in just a little over 15 innings of work. After undergoing Tommy John surgery the hurler will just try to pound the strike zone, which will in turn see him pounded by an explosive offensive opponent, that loves to hammer fast ball hitters like himself.
Its obvious we have a favorable pitching mismatch on board today, making a Phillies team that averages 5.1 RPG on the road this season, very much the right side.
Final notes & Key Trends: Florida is batting just .240 at home this season and are averaging just 4.3 RPG. Phillies are 10-1 in Hamels' last 11 starts during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 0-5 in Johnsons last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record .
Play on Philadelphia
James Patrick Sports
A’s vs. Yankees
Oakland starter Duchscherer is 6-2 in his last 8 starts and the Athletics have won 6 of 9 in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees lefty Pettite is just 1-6 versus the A’s and our call in Sunday Major League Baseball action is Oakland Athletics.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Chicago White Sox
Note: The White Sox wrap up a division series with the Royals in Chicago this afternoon when John Danks takes on Alan Bannister at Comiskey Park. Danks loves hurling this time of the year as evidenced by his 6-1 career record in July, including 4-0 at home. He's also 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his career team starts against the Royals. With Bannister sporting an 8.14 ERA on the road this season and Danks 8-4 with a 2.35 ERA in day starts this year, we'll stay at home with the Pale Hose here today.
Jimmy The Moose
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Over
The over is 9-3 in the Indians last 12 games overall. Cleveland has played the over in 7 of their last 8 road games. The over is 16-7 in their last 23 games as a favorite. The over is 5-2-1 in Lee's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners have played the over in 3 of their last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in Silva's last 4 starts as a home dog. The team's have played the over in 4 of their 5 meetings this season and this one will do the same. Play the over.
Robert Ross
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: New York Mets
Going against Reds starter Volquez in his first start after his All-Star Game appearance. The METS are 36-22 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 48-66 against the money line in home games vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game since 1997. Take the N.Y. Mets!
Big Al Mcmordie
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
At 4:10pm our member selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Seattle Mariners. Lost in the excitement of last Tuesday night's extra-innings, nail-biting, All-Star game was the performance of American League starter and 29 year-old Cleveland lefthanded ace, Cliff Lee. Lee went two innings against the National League's best hitters and all he did was give up only one hit (to Atlanta's Chipper Jones), while striking out three and only throwing a very efficient 20 pitches over the opening two frames. Lee's performance justified Terry Francona's decision in making him the AL starter and also furthers his status as one of the league's best starters (not to mention a virtual shoe-in for AL Comeback Player of the Year Award). And with the recent trade by the Indians of 2007 Cy Young winner, CC Sabathia, Lee now stands alone at the top of Cleveland's rotation. He will need to remain focused in the second half while pitching for what will most certainly be a losing team the rest of the way. What better way to build confidence than starting his second-half campaign with a start against the lowly Seattle Mariners (one of the worst teams in the league) and a starter in Carlos Silva who is only 4-11 this season and who is also only 1-4 in his last five starts vs. Cleveland. Take the Indians.
Scott Ferrall
TEXAS/PADILLA +130 AT MINNESOTA-they beat Baker at the Homerdome
KANSAS CITY GETS LUCKY AT CHICAGO--Bannister over Danks because everybody's betting on the Sox
BURRES AND BALTIMORE +120 OVER DETROIT/VERLANDER
TAMPA -150 OVER TORONTO-Edwin Jackson gets the job done at the Trop
ARIZONA -150 OVER LA DODGERS/LOWE--WEBB IS DA MAN !
BRAVES -200 OVER NATIONALS IN ATLANTA
Karl Garrett
Mets at CINCINNATI -130
I say go with the Mets-Reds to hold UNDER the posted total this afternoon as Mike Pelfrey and Edinson Volquez match pitches.
The last pair in this four game set have both been LOW, and the Mets have now played UNDERS in 5 of their last 6 games overall.
Starter Mike Pelfrey has been brilliant of late, as his last 3 starts have seen just 1 earned run score in 22 innings of work. Back it up a little further, and only 5 runs have been scored against Pelfrey in almost 33 innings of work.
All his counterpart Edinson Volquez has done is compile a 6-0 mark at home with a 2.43 ERA.
Have to believe the runs will be hard to come by in this one.
Look for plenty of nothing up on the Great American Ball Park scoreboard.
Take the UNDER.
5♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers at ARIZONA -150
We're 27-21 with our last 48 FREE plays on the diamond and today we're coming with the Diamondbacks as they wrap up a three-game set with the Dodgers in Arizona.
If there's one thing the D'Backs have been able to count on this season it's ace Brandon Webb (13-4, 3.37 ERA). They'll count on him to end this three-game set with the Dodgers in style today as they beat Los Angeles in the finale.
Arizona hasn't been able to count on an inconsistent offense, or its bullpen, but they are 14-6 when Webb goes out to the mound and he's 6-1 at Chase Field in Arizona. They can also count on him dominating the Dodgers. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a game against Los Angeles since 2004 - a string of seven starts, three of which have been shutouts.
In four starts against the Dodgers last season he gave up a grand total of three runs in 29.1 innings of work and the D'Backs have won seven straight times he's faced Los Angeles.
Derek Lowe (7-8, 3.85) goes for the Dodgers and he is just 2-4 on the road this season with a 4.85 ERA and the opposition is hitting .349 off him. The Dodgers are just 1-3 in his last four starts in Arizona but he did hold the D'Backs to one run on three hits in five innings back in April as the Dodgers got an 8-3 home win.
We're playing Arizona tonight because the D'Backs are 24-9 in Webb's last 33 home starts and 25-10 in his last 35 starts overall. Play Webb and the D'Backs tonight.
4♦ ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
L.A. Dodgers at ARIZONA -150
Now on to our free winner for Sunday, as we’re banking on Brandon Webb in this one, as he should be the sole superstar in this one. He’s 6-1 in eight home starts this season, and is a perfect 5-0 against the Dodgers dating back two seasons. And talk about domination, he’s given up a mere five earned runs in those starts, spanning 39 innings for an ERA of 1.15.
True, Derek Lowe has won two straight, and has actually been quite decent against the Snakes, but he is 2-4 in 10 road starts and has a rather high 4.85 ERA with a suitcase in hand. The Dodgers are mired in losing streaks of 6-15 when Lowe is an underdog, 8-20 when he’s installed as the road pup and 0-4 in their last four against righties.
Lay the run and a half here, as the Diamondbacks streak to an easy win.
2♦ DIAMONDBACKS RUN LINE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Texas at MINNESOTA -135
Today we like the Twins to break out the broom, and sweep away the Rangers who have come out of the All-Star break a little sluggish.
Texas has dropped the first 2 games of this weekend set, and they have scored just 2 runs through the first 18 innings, and have rapped out just 9 hits along the way.
Look for the trend to continue, as Minnesota hurler Baker has yet to lose at home, with a 3-0 mark, and an under 3 ERA.
Texas will counter with Padilla who has been reached for 15 runs over his last 9 innings of work!
Padilla's road ERA stands at 5.20, and with the Twins having plated 20 runs the last 2 days, there is a strong chance the hitters will once again be banging balls all over the Metrodome this afternoon.
Minnesota is 9-3 at home against Texas since last year, and we like them to take another game today.
Play on the Twins.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Jim Feist
NYM Mets and CIN Reds
Take Under
Two outstanding pitchers going on Sunday as the Mets take on the Reds. Mike Pelfrey might just be the hottest pitcher in baseball. Heading into the break he tossed back to back shutouts, working 15 innings, giving up just nine hits and no runs. In fact, Pelfrey has allowed just five earned runs in his last 32 2/3 innings worked. Edison Volquez has been one of the best first half pitchers, going 12-3 with a 2.29 era. Edison is coming off a fine performance in Milwaukee where he went seven innings, scattered six hits and allowed just one earned run for the win. Two excellent pitchers and we still get a total at 8 1/2. We'll go UNDER here on Sunday with the Mets and Reds