ATS Lock Canadian
Edmunton +3.5 3 units
KELSO
High Rollers Club 10 unit
Tampa Bay
Best Bets Club
5 unit - Arizona
4 unit - Boston
3 unit - Milwaukee
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAYS
MINNESOTA -132 over Texas
The Rangers are 5-12 in the last 17 meetings and 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, while the Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 17-4 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.The Twins are playing some of the best ball in the majors right now as they come in here winners of 17 of their last 24 games overall and 14 of their last 16 at home. Overall the Twins at 33-18 at home, scoring 5.3 rpg and hitting .290 in the process. Minnesota is 4-2 at home vs Texas this year and has scored 7.5 rpg n those 6 games. Vicente Padilla is making his first start since coming off the DL and had really struggled before going on it as he was 0-2 with a 15.58 ERA in 2 starts. Vicente is 7-2 on the road, but with a 5.20 ERA on the year. Scott Baker has been solid for the Twins this year, going 6-2 with a 3.47 ERA overall, including a 3-0 mark with a 2.67 ERA at home and a 4-0 mark with a 3.0- ERA in his last 5 starts. He will be taking on a strong Texas offense that scores 6.1 rpg vs righties on the year, but also one that has been held to just 2 runs in the first two games of this series. The Minnesota pitching has stymied this Texas offense in this series, while the Twins offense has put 20 runs on the board vs the 29th ranked Texas pitching staff. Minnesota is just too hot to go against them here, especially when taking on a pitcher fresh off the DL. Twins get the sweep.
TOM FREESE
Cleveland at Seattle
Cleveland starter Cliff Lee is 7-2 in 9 career team starts vs. the Mariners and they are 13-5 in 18 starts made by Lee this year. The Indians are 5-1 their last 6 games overall and they are 4-1 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. Seattle is 6-13 their last 19 home games and they are 14-30 their last 44 games vs. losing teams. The Mariners are 4-22 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 6-20 vs. a team that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. The M's are 2-9 in the last 11 starts made by Carlos Silva. PLAY ON CLEVELAND -
BRIAN MARSHALL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Plays On: New York/Cincinnati Under 8.5
The New York Mets will be lead by starting pitcher Michael Pelfrey. Michael Pelfrey has been pitching well this season. In fact, Michael Pelfrey has a 3.64 ERA on the season. In addition, Michael Pelfrey has a 0.41 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Michael Pelfrey giving up very few hits and runs today.
The Cincinnati Reds will be lead by starting pitcher Edinson Volquez. Edinson Volquez has also been pitching well this season. In fact, Edinson Volquez has a 2.29 ERA on the season. We see Edinson Volquez also giving up very few hits and runs today.
The bottom line, we should see very little scoring today.
Take the New York Mets/Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5
JB's Computer Picks
Cincinnati Reds -130
Minnesota Twins -140
St. Louis Cardinals -145
Cleveland Indians -140
Arizona Diamondbacks -150
LT Profits
Los Angeles Dodgers +130
Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks is certainly one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, but Derek Lowe of the Los Angeles Dodgers has actually been the better pitcher over the last six weeks or so, and he gets the call as a decided underdog here.
Lowe is coming off of another gem vs. the Atlanta Braves where he allowed one run on only two hits in 7.1 innings of a 2-1 victory. That gives him a 2.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his last three starts and eight Quality Starts in his last 10 outings. He has also allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts vs. Arizona including one start this year, and he is not exactly facing a scorching Diamondbacks lineup in this spot.
Now Webb is 13-4 with a 3.37 ERA overall, but he has not seemed like himself lately. In fact, he has just three Quality Starts in his last seven starts, with the D-Backs as a team going 3-4 in those games. Perhaps most discouraging is his uncharacteristic 1.37 WHIP over his last three starts.
Finally, the Dodgers clearly have the superior bullpen here, giving them even more value at this price.
Pick: Dodgers +130
Michael Alexander
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
The Kansas City Royals look to take the rubber game of their three game weekend set versus the Chicago White Sox today after a convincing win yesterday. The win yesterday was their first of the season on the road versus the White Sox this season. Overall the Royals have struggled on the road posting only a 22-30 record. The Kansas City offense has struggled recently as well posting 3.9 runs per game and hitting only .217 in their past seven.
Today Kansas City will send vetern right-hander, Brian Bannister, to the hill. Bannister has really struggled on the road posting a 2-5 mark with a horrible 8.14 ERA. In his last three starts he has struggled to get anyone out posting an 0-2 mark with an astronomical 9.91 ERA. His last start versus the White Sox was back on July 9th where he gave up 5 runs in 6.7 innings and lost 7-6.
The White Sox come into this one needing a victory as well as they are only a 1/2 game in front of the red hot Minnesota Twins. The loss yesterday was their 4th in their last 6. Overall the White Sox have been very tough at home posting an impressive 33-14 while scoring 5.7 runs per game while hitting .270 as a team.
Chicago will counter today with left-hander John Danks. Danks has been having a good year thus far posting a 7-4 overall mark with a sparkling 2.67 ERA. Danks has hadd some good success versus the Royals posting a miniscule 1.98 ERA. In his last two starts at home Danks has given up only 3 earned runs in 14.3 innings of work.
SUPPORTING TRENDS: CHI WHITE SOX are 12-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season. CHI WHITE SOX are 22-3 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in home games with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 4-16 (-10.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
Not the lowest of numbers in this one but there's a huge disparity in this pitching matchup. Look for Chicago to continue their home dominence over the Royals. I'm taking the White Sox in this one.
Tony Karpinski
Cleveland Indians vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Cleveland Indians
Cliff Lee has been lights out all season for the Indians and I see little reason to believe that's about to change as he faces the less than daunting Seattle attack. Cliff is 5-0 at home with a low ERA, but how about his numbers away from Cleveland? Is there a pitcher better on the road this season than Cliff? He has seven road victories to just two road losses. He also has an ERA of just 2.77. Cliff has allowed just five home-runs all season to go along with his great WHIP. Carlos Silva tosses for the M's, and while he's been a little better lately, he's anything but dominating. Huge edge on the mound for the Indians, and it's a game they should win.
WILD BILL
Florida +145 (5 units)
Mets +120 (5 units)
Nationals +185 (5 units)
Astros +125 (5 units)
St Louis -145 (5 units)
Brewers +120 (5 units)
Arizona -145 (5 units)
Yankees -140 (5 units)
Tigers -125 (5 units)
Over 9 1/2 Detroit-Balt (5 units)
Tampa -145 (5 units)
Texas +125 (5 units)
Indians -135 (5 units)
Boston +100 (5 units)
BEN BURNS
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Reason: I lost with the White Sox yesterday (*Editor's Note: That was Ben's only loss in last 11 plays) but feel they should be able to bounce back this afternoon. Danks has a 2.67 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 19 starts this season. That gives him the third best ERA in the American League. On the other hand, Bannister has also made 19 starts but has a poor 5.24 ERA. That only tells half the story about the Royals' righthander though. While he's been generally solid at home, Bannister has been terrible on the road. In eight starts away from KC, he has gone 2-5 (Royals are 2-6) with a brutal 8.14 ERA and 1.691 WHIP.
Bannister was roughed up by these same Sox in his last outing and now has a 9.91 ERA and 1.775 WHIP his last three starts. In his last three starts vs. the White Sox, Bannister is 0-1 with a 11.68 ERA. Conversely, Danks has a 1.98 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in his two career starts vs. the Royals. While we didn't see it yesterday, the Chisox are also the much better hitting club AND they've got an advantage in the bullpen. Even with yesterday's loss, the Sox are still 27-13 against division opponents this season and an impressive 33-14 at home. Consider a play on CHICAGO
Larry Ness
SFG -132
The Brewers have thrown their "one-two punch" at the Giants in the first two games of this series, the newly -acquired CC Sabathia and the team's old stand-by, Ben Sheets. Sabathia was dominating on Friday in a 9-1 win, while Sheets struggled a little (5 IP / 9 hits / 4 runs of which two were earned) Saturday but was bailed out by the offense, which scored eight runs. Now the Brewers will try and pull off the three-game road sweep against the Giants ace, Tim Lincecum. Lincecum comes in 11-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) in '08, as the Giants are 13-6 in his starts. While he has pitched better on the road (2.11 ERA) than at home (3.23 ERA) this year, I'm willing to play him in this one. I realize that the Giants own MLB's worst home record (17-30) but I'm not completely sold on Manny Parra or on the Brewers on the road. Parra has surprised with an 8-2 mark in this first half (3.69 ERA) but like so many of Milwaukee's starters (save Sheets and now Sabathia), he's struggled away from home with 4.91 road ERA, compared to his 2.87 ERA at Miller Park. Lincecum hasn't pitched since last Sunday (sat out the All Star game with flu-like symptoms) when he gave up one run in eight innings (nine Ks) in Wrigley Field against the NL's top-scoring team in the Cubs. Go with the Giants.
Gold Medal Club
Detroit @ Baltimore
PLAY ON DETROIT -1.5 +120
Tigers lineup geared to facing lefties, as they have a 19-7 record, averaging over 5 runs a game.Verlander is in great forum, 2.70 era in his last three starts.Burres hasn't made past the 6th inning in his last 3 starts, and against this Tigers lineup look for that trend to continue.
Ross Benjamin
Play: Detroit -130 (15*)
The Tigers are a very profitable 18-7 versus a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The Detroit starter Justin Verlander enters the game in excellent form off of his last 7 starts posting a stellar 2.54 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and the Tigers have won 6 of the 7. The Baltimore southpaw starter Burres has been horrible in 9 home starts posting a lofty 6.14 ERA while allowing 11 home runs in just 49.1 innings. Burres is 3-12 in his last 15 team starts as an underdog of 1.50 or less. The Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 as an underdog while the Tigers are 22-6 in their last 22 as a favorite including 9-1 in the last 10 as a road favorite. Play on the Detroit Tigers as my MLB 15* American League Game of the Week.
David Malinsky
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis
PICK: St. Louis 4*
We have already cashed a couple of tickets with the Cardinals in this series, taking advantage of a matchup that the oddsmakers are simply not pricing properly. Now it is more of the same. A team with the 6th best record in the Major League’s, filled with the energy boost of now being only two games behind the Cubs in the N.L. Central, should be in an entirely different range against a team that is now tied for the worst record at this level. So of course we will play again.
San Diego has caught down with Washington at 37-61, but there needs to be an asterisk next to that tie - the Padres are at that level despite being in a division in which all teams sport losing records, with the N.L. West a collective 60 games under .500 vs. outside opponents. And the Padres have certainly contributed to that, falling to 5-22 on the road against non-division opponents. Now with Cha Seung Baek making his first start in 12 days, having had one truly dismal relief appearance since then, the atmosphere is hardly conducive for a turnaround. And Baek has to take on an offense that not only has Albert Pujols at the top of his game, but also brings the red-hot bats of Troy Glaus (17-32, with an eight-game win streak); Ryan Ludwick (10-23 with four home runs); and Rick Ankiel (home runs in five of his last 10 starts) to the table.
Jaime Garcia gets the ideal setting for his first start, facing a San Diego offense that took advantage of sloppy St. Louis defense to score early yesterday, then went flat once again. In 103.2 innings in the Minor’s he earned his way up by posting as many strikeouts as hits allowed, and he brings the usual advantage of a left-hander that the opposition has no scouting report on. That is more than enough for us to once again back the far superior lineup at this short price.